The combined impact of urban heat island, thermal bridge effect of buildings and future climate change on the potential overwintering of Phlebotomus species in a Central European metropolis

Leishmaniasis is one of the most important emerging vector-borne diseases in Western Eurasia. Although winter minimum temperatures limit the present geographical distribution of the vector Phlebotomus species, the heat island effect of the cities and the anthropogenic heat emission together may provide the appropriate environment for the overwintering of sand flies. We studied the climate tempering effect of thermal bridges and the heat island effect in Budapest, Hungary. Thermal imaging was used to measure the heat surplus of heat bridges. The winter heat island effect of the city was evaluated by numerical analysis of the measurements of the Aqua sensor of satellite Terra. We found that the surface temperature of thermal bridges can be at least 3-7 °C higher than the surrounding environment. The heat emission of thermal bridges and the urban heat island effect together can cause at least 10 °C higher minimum ambient temperature in winter nights than the minimum temperature of the peri-urban areas. This milder micro-climate of the built environment can enable the potential overwintering of some important European Phlebotomus species. The anthropogenic heat emission of big cities may explain the observed isolated northward populations of Phlebotomus ariasi in Paris and Phlebotomus neglectus in the agglomeration of Budapest.

(Table S1) Brominated flame retardant concentrations in an ice core from Holtedahlfonna, Svalbard

Brominated flame retardants (BFRs) have been found in Arctic wildlife, lake sediment, and air. To identify the atmospheric BFR deposition history on Svalbard, Norway, we analyzed 19 BFRs, including hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), 1,2-bis(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy)ethane (BTBPE), decabromodiphenyl ethane (DBDPE), pentabromoethylbenzene (PBEB),and 15 polybrominated diphenyl ether congeners (PBDE) in the upper 34 m of an ice core (representing 1953-2005) from Holtedahlfonna, the western-most ice sheet on Svalbard. All of the non-PBDE compounds were detected in nearly continuous profiles in the core. Seven PBDEs were not observed above background (28,47,66,100,99,154,153), while 4 were found in 1 or 2 of 6 segments (17,85,138,183). BDEs-49,71,190,209 had nearly continuous profiles but only BDE-209 in large amounts. The greatest inputs were HBCD and BDE-209, 910, and 320 pg/cm**2/yr from 1995-2005. DBDPE, BTBPE, and PBEB show nearly continuous input growth in recent core segments, but all were <6 pg/cm**2/yr. Long-range atmospheric processes may have moved these particle-bound BFRs to the site, probably during the Arctic haze season. Average air mass trajectories over 10 years show >75% of atmospheric flow to Holtedahlfonna coming from Eurasia during haze periods (March and April).

Termination II record, stable isotopes and trace elements of Stagamite MF-3 from Schafsloch Cave

The timing and nature of the penultimate deglaciation, also known as Termination II (T-II), is subject of controversial discussions due to the scarcity of precisely-dated palaeoclimate records. Here we present a new precisely-dated and highly-resolved multi-proxy stalagmite record covering T-II from the high alpine Schafsloch Cave in Switzerland, an area where climate is governed by the North Atlantic. The inception of stalagmite growth at 137.4 ± 1.4 kyr before present (BP) indicates the presence of drip water and cave air temperatures of above 0 °C, and is related to a climate-induced change in the thermal state (from cold-to warm-based) of the glacier above the cave. The cessation of stalagmite growth between 133.1 ± 0.7 and 131.9 ± 0.6 kyr BP is most likely related to distinct drop in temperature associated with Heinrich stadial 11. The resumption of stalagmite growth at 131.9 ± 0.6 kyr BP is accompanied by an abrupt increase in temperature and precipitation as indicated by distinct shifts in the oxygen and carbon isotopic composition as well as in trace element concentrations. The mid-point of T-II is around 131.8 ± 0.6 kyr BP in the Schafsloch Cave record is significantly earlier compared to the age of 129.1 ± 0.1 kyr BP in the Sanbao Cave record from China. The different ages between both records can be best explained by the competing effects of insolation and glacial boundary forcing on seasonality and snow cover extent in Eurasia.

Non-indigenous species in the North and Baltic Seas and the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River region

List of non-indigenous species (NIS) established in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River region and the North and Baltic Seas region, their geographic origin, and taxonomic assignment. Asterisks mark the NIS that occur in both the North and Baltic Seas and the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River regions. GL, SL, NW, NE, SW and SE denote the Great Lakes, St. Lawrence River, north-west, north-east, south-west, and south-east, respectively. Eurasia represents inland freshwaters except Yangtze River, Indo-Pacific represents Indian Ocean and the archipelago of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Pilipinas, North America (N America) represents inland freshwaters except the Laurentian Great Lakes, St. Lawrence and Mississippi Rivers, while Australia, New Zealand, Africa and South America (S America) cover all inland freshwaters in these areas.

Table 1. Tree growth index and reconstructed precipitation series from 515 BC to AD 1993 based on the archaeological and living tree ring datasets from Dulan and Shenge, China

Annual precipitation for the last 2,500 years was reconstructed for northeastern Qinghai from living and archaeological juniper trees. A dominant feature of the precipitation of this area is a high degree of variability in mean rainfall at annual, decadal, and centennial scales, with many wet and dry periods that are corroborated by other paleoclimatic indicators. Reconstructed values of annual precipitation vary mostly from 100 to 300 mm and thus are no different from the modern instrumental record in Dulan. However, relatively dry years with below-average precipitation occurred more frequently in the past than in the present. Periods of relatively dry years occurred during 74-25 BC, AD 51-375, 426-500, 526-575, 626-700, 1100-1225, 1251-1325, 1451-1525, 1651-1750 and 1801-1825. Periods with a relatively wet climate occurred during AD 376-425, 576-625, 951-1050, 1351-1375, 1551-1600 and the present. This variability is probably related to latitudinal positions of winter frontal storms. Another key feature of precipitation in this area is an apparently direct relationship between interannual variability in rainfall with temperature, whereby increased warming in the future might lead to increased flooding and droughts. Such increased climatic variability might then impact human societies of the area, much as the climate has done for the past 2,500 years.

Cenozoic global ice volume and temperature simulations over the past 40 million years

Variations in global ice volume and temperature over the Cenozoic era have been investigated with a set of one-dimensional (1-D) ice-sheet models. Simulations include three ice sheets representing glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere, i.e. in Eurasia, North America and Greenland, and two separate ice sheets for Antarctic glaciation. The continental mean Northern Hemisphere surface-air temperature has been derived through an inverse procedure from observed benthic d18O records. These data have yielded a mutually consistent and continuous record of temperature, global ice volume and benthic d18O over the past 35 Ma. The simple 1-D model shows good agreement with a comprehensive 3-D ice-sheet model for the past 3 Ma. On average, differences are only 1.0°C for temperature and 6.2 m for sea level. Most notably, over the 35 Ma period, the reconstructed ice volume-temperature sensitivity shows a transition from a climate controlled by Southern Hemisphere ice sheets to one controlled by Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Although the transient behaviour is important, equilibrium experiments show that the relationship between temperature and sea level is linear and symmetric, providing limited evidence for hysteresis. Furthermore, the results show a good comparison with other simulations of Antarctic ice volume and observed sea level.

Results of the pollen analysis of the Dyanushka peat sediments K7/P2

A 415cm thick permafrost peat section from the Verkhoyansk Mountains was radiocarbon-dated and studied using palaeobotanical and sedimentological approaches. Accumulation of organic-rich sediment commenced in a former oxbow lake, detached from a Dyanushka River meander during the Younger Dryas stadial, at ~12.5 kyr BP. Pollen data indicate that larch trees, shrub alder and dwarf birch were abundant in the vegetation at that time. Local presence of larch during the Younger Dryas is documented by well-preserved and radiocarbon-dated needles and cones. The early Holocene pollen assemblages reveal high percentages of Artemisia pollen, suggesting the presence of steppe-like communities around the site, possibly in response to a relatively warm and dry climate ~11.4-11.2 kyr BP. Both pollen and plant macrofossil data demonstrate that larch woods were common in the river valley. Remains of charcoal and pollen of Epilobium indicate fire events and mark a hiatus ~11.0-8.7 kyr BP. Changes in peat properties, C31/C27 alkane ratios and radiocarbon dates suggest that two other hiatuses occurred ~8.2-6.9 and ~6.7-0.6 kyr BP. Prior to 0.6 kyr BP, a major fire destroyed the mire surface. The upper 60 cm of the studied section is composed of aeolian sands modified in the uppermost part by the modern soil formation. For the first time, local growth of larch during the Younger Dryas has been verified in the western foreland of the Verkhoyansk Mountains (~170km south of the Arctic Circle), thus increasing our understanding of the quick reforestation of northern Eurasia by the early Holocene.

Strength of the Iberian intraplate lithosphere: Cenozoic deformations and seismicity

Previous studies about the strength of the lithosphere in the Iberia centre fail to resolve the depth of earthquakes because of the rheological uncertainties. Therefore, new contributions are considered (the crustal structure from a density model) and several parameters (tectonic regime, mantle rheology, strain rate) are checked in this paper to properly examine the role of lithospheric strength in the intraplate seismicity and the Cenozoic evolution. The strength distribution with depth, the integrated strength, the effective elastic thickness and the seismogenic thickness have been calculated by a finite element modelling of the lithosphere across the Central System mountain range and the bordering Duero and Madrid sedimentary basins. Only a dry mantle under strike-slip/extension and a strain rate of 10-15 s-1, or under extension and 10-16 s-1, causes a strong lithosphere. The integrated strength and the elastic thickness are lower in the mountain chain than in the basins. These anisotropies have been maintained since the Cenozoic and determine the mountain uplift and the biharmonic folding of the Iberian lithosphere during the Alpine deformations. The seismogenic thickness bounds the seismic activity in the upper–middle crust, and the decreasing crustal strength from the Duero Basin towards the Madrid Basin is related to a parallel increase in Plio–Quaternary deformations and seismicity. However, elasto–plastic modelling shows that current African–Eurasian convergence is resolved elastically or ductilely, which accounts for the low seismicity recorded in this region.

The relationship between vegetation and modern pollen assemblages on Mount Paggeo (NE Greece)

In this study, we investigated the relationship between vegetation and modern-pollen rain along the elevational gradient of Mount Paggeo. We apply multivariate data analysis to assess the relationship between vegetation and modern-pollen rain and quantify the representativeness of forest zones. This study represents the first statistical analysis of pollen-vegetation relationship along an elevational gradient in Greece. Hence, this paper improves confidence in interpretation of palynological records from north-eastern Greece and may refine past climate reconstructions for a more accurate comparison of data and modelling. Numerical classification and ordination were performed on pollen data to assess differences among plant communities that beech (Fagus sylvatica) dominates or co-dominates. The results show a strong relationship between altitude, arboreal cover, human impact and variations in pollen and nonpollen palynomorph taxa percentages.

The European Union Foreign Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia: The Limitations of the Opening towards the East

This article intends to study the evolution of the European Union foreign policy in the Southern Caucasus and Central Area throughout the Post-Cold War era. The aim is to analyze Brussels’ fundamental interests and limitations in the area, the strategies it has implemented in the last few years, and the extent to which the EU has been able to undermine the regional hegemons’ traditional supremacy. As will be highlighted, the Community’s chronic weaknesses, the local determination to preserve sovereignty and an increasing international geopolitical competition undermine any European aspiration to become a pre-eminent actor at the heart of the Eurasian continent in the near future.

Genomic and archaeological evidence suggest a dual origin of domestic dogs

The geographic and temporal origins of dogs remain controversial. We generated genetic sequences from 59 ancient dogs and a complete (28x) genome of a late Neolithic dog (dated to ~4800 calendar years before the present) from Ireland. Our analyses revealed a deep split separating modern East Asian and Western Eurasian dogs. Surprisingly, the date of this divergence (~14,000 to 6400 years ago) occurs commensurate with, or several millennia after, the first appearance of dogs in Europe and East Asia. Additional analyses of ancient and modern mitochondrial DNA revealed a sharp discontinuity in haplotype frequencies in Europe. Combined, these results suggest that dogs may have been domesticated independently in Eastern and Western Eurasia from distinct wolf populations. East Eurasian dogs were then possibly transported to Europe with people, where they partially replaced European Paleolithic dogs.

The Great Transition:Climate, disease and society in the late-medieval world

In the fourteenth century the Old World witnessed a series of profound and abrupt changes in the trajectory of long-established historical trends. Trans-continental networks of exchange fractured and an era of economic contraction and demographic decline dawned from which Latin Christendom would not begin to emerge until its voyages of discovery at the end of the fifteenth century. In a major new study of this 'Great Transition', assessment is made of the contributions of commercial recession, war, climate change,and eruption of the Black Death to a far-reaching reversal of fortunes which spared no part of Eurasia. A wealth of new historical, palaeoecological and biological evidence are synthesised, including estimates of national income, reconstructions of past climates. and genetic analysis of DNA extracted from the teeth of plague victims, to provide a fresh account of the creation, collapse and realignment of western Europe's late-medieval commercial economy.

Iron isotope systematics in Arctic rivers

The input of iron to the Arctic Ocean plays a critical role in the productivity of aquatic ecosystems and is potentially impacted by climate change. We examine Fe isotope systematics of dissolved and colloidal Fe from several Arctic and sub-Arctic rivers in northern Eurasia and Alaska. We demonstrate that the Fe isotopic (δ56Fe) composition of large rivers, such as the Ob’ and Lena, has a restricted range of δ56Fe values ca.–0.11 ± 0.13‰, with minimal seasonal variability, in stark contrast to smaller organic-rich rivers with an overall δ56Fe range from–1.7 to + 1.6‰. The preferential enrichment with heavy Fe isotopes observed in low molecular weight colloidal fraction and during the high-flow period is consistent with the role of organic complexation of Fe. The light Fe isotope signatures of smaller rivers and meltwater reflect active redox cycling. Data synthesis reveals that small organic-rich rivers and meltwater in Arctic environments may contribute disproportionately to the input of labile Fe in the Arctic Ocean, while bearing contrasting Fe isotope compositions compared to larger rivers.