Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.

Woolies private label strategy will play directly into the hands of Aldi

Woolworths’ plan to rebrand its private label ranges in an attempt to meet changing shopper demands and combat the growth of Aldi will simply play into the hands of this German discounter. This new strategy, a replication of what Coles did in November 2015, will see their existing “Homebrand” and “Woolworths Essential” product ranges combined under the “Essentials” brand name. However, in focusing on price and private label ranges, supermarkets are in a race to the bottom where there are no points of difference in products except for price.

Directional dominance on stature and cognition in diverse human populations

Homozygosity has long been associated with rare, often devastating, Mendelian disorders1, and Darwin was one of the first to recognize that inbreeding reduces evolutionary fitness2. However, the effect of the more distant parental relatedness that is common in modern human populations is less well understood. Genomic data now allow us to investigate the effects of homozygosity on traits of public health importance by observing contiguous homozygous segments (runs of homozygosity), which are inferred to be homozygous along their complete length. Given the low levels of genome-wide homozygosity prevalent in most human populations, information is required on very large numbers of people to provide sufficient power3, 4. Here we use runs of homozygosity to study 16 health-related quantitative traits in 354,224 individuals from 102 cohorts, and find statistically significant associations between summed runs of homozygosity and four complex traits: height, forced expiratory lung volume in one second, general cognitive ability and educational attainment (P < 1 × 10−300, 2.1 × 10−6, 2.5 × 10−10 and 1.8 × 10−10, respectively). In each case, increased homozygosity was associated with decreased trait value, equivalent to the offspring of first cousins being 1.2 cm shorter and having 10 months’ less education. Similar effect sizes were found across four continental groups and populations with different degrees of genome-wide homozygosity, providing evidence that homozygosity, rather than confounding, directly contributes to phenotypic variance. Contrary to earlier reports in substantially smaller samples5, 6, no evidence was seen of an influence of genome-wide homozygosity on blood pressure and low density lipoprotein cholesterol, or ten other cardio-metabolic traits. Since directional dominance is predicted for traits under directional evolutionary selection7, this study provides evidence that increased stature and cognitive function have been positively selected in human evolution, whereas many important risk factors for late-onset complex diseases may not have been.

The impact of service failure on brand credibility

Recent studies have examined the consequences of brand credibility, with the majority of works embedded in physical goods. Despite the growing attention service branding receives, little is known about how service failure and recovery efforts impact on brand credibility in service organisations. The purpose of this study is to examine how brand credibility is affected by service failure and an organisations recovery efforts. An online self-completion survey of airline consumers (n=875) was employed to test the relationships between the focal constructs. The results show that a service firm’s effective complaint handling positively impacts satisfaction with complaining, overall satisfaction and service brand credibility. The study also finds that the higher the perceived magnitude of failure, the more difficult it is to satisfy a customer. These results demonstrate that it is possible to maintain service brand credibility during a service failure, provided brand managers develop and implement effective complain handling procedures.

The supermarket of the future: Directions for Australia

Supermarkets are scrambling to effect change across stores in order to meet the needs of a changing consumer and stay ahead of their competition. If the UK, US and European market is anything to go by, our Australian supermarkets of the future will offer less choice and engagement, but more private labels, greater convenience and solutions.

Euro/US style supermarket pharmacies inevitable

European or US-style supermarket pharmacies are inevitable in Australia, says a retailing expert – but customers aren’t necessarily attracted to supermarkets for their health needs. Dr Gary Mortimer, senior lecturer at the QUT Business School, Advertising, Marketing and Public Relations, wrote a piece in retailing publication Inside FMCG about the supermarket of the future – which will among other innovations include a strong focus on providing convenience to time-poor consumers.

Does gender moderate the relationship between polydrug use and sexual risk-taking among Australian secondary school students under 16 years of age?

Introduction and Aims This study examines the association of alcohol and polydrug use with risky sexual behaviour in adolescents under 16 years of age and if this association differs by gender. Design and Methods The sample consisted of 5412 secondary school students under 16 years of age from Victoria, Australia. Participants completed an anonymous and confidential survey during class time. The key measures were having had sex before legal age of consent (16 years), unprotected sex before 16 (no condom) and latent-class derived alcohol and polydrug use variables based on alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, inhalants and other illegal drug use in the past month. Results There were 7.52% and 2.55% of adolescents who reported having sex and having unprotected sex before 16 years of age, respectively. After adjusting for antisocial behaviours, peers' drug use and family and school risk factors, girls were less likely to have unprotected sex (odds ratio = 0.31, P = 0.003). However, the interaction of being female and polydrug use (odds ratio = 4.52, P = 0.004) was significant, indicating that girls who engaged in polydrug use were at higher risk of having unprotected sex. For boys, the effect of polydrug use was non-significant (odds ratio = 1.44, P = 0.310). Discussion and Conclusions For girls, polydrug use was significantly associated with unprotected sex after adjusting for a range of risk factors, and this relationship was non-significant for boys. Future prevention programs for adolescent risky sexual behaviour and polydrug use might benefit from a tailored approach to gender differences.

Noise measurements of a phase fluorometric instrument

We present noise measurements of a phase fluorometric oxygen sensor that sets the limits of accuracy for this instrument. We analyze the phase sensitive detection measurement system with the signal ''shot'' noise being the only significant contribution to the system noise. Based on the modulated optical power received by the photomultiplier, the analysis predicts a noise spectral power density that was within 3 dB of the measured power spectral noise density. Our results demonstrate that at a received optical power of 20 fW the noise level was low enough to permit the detection of a change oxygen concentration of 1% at the sensor. We also present noise measurements of a new low-cost version of this instrument that uses a photodiode instead of a photomultiplier. These measurements show that the noise for this instrument was limited by noise generated in the preamplifier following the photodiode. (C) 1996 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

RRI-GBT MULTI-BAND RECEIVER: MOTIVATION, DESIGN, AND DEVELOPMENT

We report the design and development of a self-contained multi-band receiver (MBR) system, intended for use with a single large aperture to facilitate sensitive and high time-resolution observations simultaneously in 10 discrete frequency bands sampling a wide spectral span (100-1500 MHz) in a nearly log-periodic fashion. The development of this system was primarily motivated by need for tomographic studies of pulsar polar emission regions. Although the system design is optimized for the primary goal, it is also suited for several other interesting astronomical investigations. The system consists of a dual-polarization multi-band feed (with discrete responses corresponding to the 10 bands pre-selected as relatively radio frequency interference free), a common wide-band radio frequency front-end, and independent back-end receiver chains for the 10 individual sub-bands. The raw voltage time sequences corresponding to 16 MHz bandwidth each for the two linear polarization channels and the 10 bands are recorded at the Nyquist rate simultaneously. We present the preliminary results from the tests and pulsar observations carried out with the Robert C. Byrd Green Bank Telescope using this receiver. The system performance implied by these results and possible improvements are also briefly discussed.

Metabolites of PPI-2458, a selective, irreversible inhibitor of methionine aminopeptidase-2: structure determination and In vivo activity

The natural product fumagillin exhibits potent antiproliferative and antiangiogenic properties. The semisynthetic analog PPI-2458, (3R,4S,5S,6R)-5-methoxy-4-(2R,3R)-2-methyl-3-(3-methylbut-2-enyl) oxiran-2-yl]-1-oxaspiro2.5]octan-6-yl] N-(2R)-1-amino-3-methyl-1-oxobutan-2-yl]carbamate, demonstrates rapid inactivation of its molecular target, methionine aminopeptidase-2 (MetAP2), and good efficacy in several rodent models of cancer and inflammation with oral dosing despite low apparent oral bioavailability. To probe the basis of its in vivo efficacy, the metabolism of PPI-2458 was studied in detail. Reaction phenotyping identified CYP3A4/5 as the major source of metabolism in humans. Six metabolites were isolated from liver microsomes and characterized by mass spectrometry and nuclear resonance spectroscopy, and their structures were confirmed by chemical synthesis. The synthetic metabolites showed correlated inhibition of MetAP2 enzymatic activity and vascular endothelial cell growth. In an ex vivo experiment, MetAP2 inhibition in white blood cells, thymus, and lymph nodes in rats after single dosing with PPI-2458 and the isolated metabolites was found to correlate with the in vitro activity of the individual species. In a phase 1 clinical study, PPI-2458 was administered to patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma. At 15 mg administered orally every other day, MetAP2 in whole blood was 80% inactivated for up to 48 hours, although the exposure of the parent compound was only similar to 10% that of the summed cytochrome P450 metabolites. Taken together, the data confirm the participation of active metabolites in the in vivo efficacy of PPI-2458. The structures define a metabolic pathway for PPI-2458 that is distinct from that of TNP-470 ((3R, 4S, 5S, 6R)-5-methoxy-4-(2R, 3R)-2-methyl-3-(3-methylbut-2-enyl)oxiran-2-yl]-1-oxaspiro2.5]octan-6 -yl] N-(2-chloroacetyl)carbamate). The high level of MetAP2 inhibition achieved in vivo supports the value of fumagillin-derived therapeutics for angiogenic diseases.

Investigational drugs for schizophrenia targeting the dopamine receptor: phase II trials

Introduction: For over half a century now, the dopamine hypothesis has provided the most widely accepted heuristic model linking pathophysiology and treatment in schizophrenia. Despite dopaminergic drugs being available for six decades, this system continues to represent a key target in schizophrenia drug discovery. The present article reviews the scientific rationale for dopaminergic medications historically and the shift in our thinking since, which is clearly reflected in the investigational drugs detailed. Areas covered: We searched for investigational drugs using the key words `dopamine,' `schizophrenia,' and `Phase II' in American and European clinical trial registers (clinicaltrials. gov; clinicaltrialsregister.eu), published articles using National Library of Medicine's PubMed database, and supplemented results with a manual search of cross-references and conference abstracts. We provide a brief description of drugs targeting dopamine synthesis, release or metabolism, and receptors (agonists/partial agonists/antagonists). Expert opinion: There are prominent shifts in how we presently conceptualize schizophrenia and its treatment. Current efforts are not as much focused on developing better antipsychotics but, instead, on treatments that can improve other symptom domains, in particular cognitive and negative. This new era in the pharmacotherapy of schizophrenia moves us away from the older `magic bullet' approach toward a strategy fostering polypharmacy and a more individualized approach shaped by the individual's specific symptom profile.