The two limits debates: "Limits to Growth" and climate change

In this article we compare the current debate about global warming with the earlier discourse of Limits to Growth (LtG) of the 1970's. We are especially interested in the similarities of and differences between the two cases and therefore compare the policy challenges and lessons to be drawn. While the two debates differ on important issues, they share a technocratic orientation to public policy, and susceptibility to similar pitfalls. In both debates alarming scenarios about future catastrophes play an important role. We suggest that climate change policy discourse needs to focus more closely on the social, economic, and political dimensions of climate change, as opposed to its excessive emphasis on emission reduction targets. We also argue that an excessive faith in the market mechanisms to supply global warming mitigation technologies is problematic. In this respect, we provide a reality check regarding the political implications of emission targets and timetables and suggest how policy issues can be moved forward.

International stock portfolio selection and performance measures recognizing higher moments of return distributions

Since the seminal works of Markowitz (1952), Sharpe (1964), and Lintner (1965), numerous studies on portfolio selection and performance measure have been based upon the mean-variance framework. However, several researchers (e.g., Arditti (1967, and 1971), Samuelson (1970), and Rubinstein (1973)) argue that the higher moments cannot be neglected unless there is reason to believe that: (i) the asset returns are normally distributed and the investor's utility function is quadratic, or (ii) the empirical evidence demonstrates that higher moments are irrelevant to the investor's decision. Based on the same argument, this dissertation investigates the impact of higher moments of return distributions on three issues concerning the 14 international stock markets.^ First, the portfolio selection with skewness is determined using: the Polynomial Goal Programming in which investor preferences for skewness can be incorporated. The empirical findings suggest that the return distributions of international stock markets are not normally distributed, and that the incorporation of skewness into an investor's portfolio decision causes a major change in the construction of his optimal portfolio. The evidence also indicates that an investor will trade expected return of the portfolio for skewness. Moreover, when short sales are allowed, investors are better off as they attain higher expected return and skewness simultaneously.^ Second, the performance of international stock markets are evaluated using two types of performance measures: (i) the two-moment performance measures of Sharpe (1966), and Treynor (1965), and (ii) the higher-moment performance measures of Prakash and Bear (1986), and Stephens and Proffitt (1991). The empirical evidence indicates that higher moments of return distributions are significant and relevant to the investor's decision. Thus, the higher moment performance measures should be more appropriate to evaluate the performances of international stock markets. The evidence also indicates that various measures provide a vastly different performance ranking of the markets, albeit in the same direction.^ Finally, the inter-temporal stability of the international stock markets is investigated using the Parhizgari and Prakash (1989) algorithm for the Sen and Puri (1968) test which accounts for non-normality of return distributions. The empirical finding indicates that there is strong evidence to support the stability in international stock market movements. However, when the Anderson test which assumes normality of return distributions is employed, the stability in the correlation structure is rejected. This suggests that the non-normality of the return distribution is an important factor that cannot be ignored in the investigation of inter-temporal stability of international stock markets. ^

Vegetation dynamics and their implications for the management of wetlands in the lowlands of Nepal

The maintenance of species richness is often a priority in the management of nature reserves, where consumptive use of resources is generally prohibited. The purpose of this research was to improve management by understanding the vegetation dynamics in the lowlands of Nepal. The objectives were to determine vegetation associations in relation to environments and human-induced disturbances that affect vegetation dynamics on floodplains, where upstream barrages had altered flooding patterns, and consumptive use of plant resources was influencing natural processes. Floodplain vegetation in relation to physical environments and disturbances were studied along transects, perpendicular to the course of the Mahakali River in the western Terai, Nepal. Forest structural changes were studied for three years in ten plots. A randomized split-block experiment with nine burning and grazing treatments was performed in seasonally flooded grasslands. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to assess people's socio-economic status, natural resource use patterns and conservation attitudes. ^ Elevation, soil organic matter, nitrogen, percentage of sand and grazing intensity were significant in delineating herbaceous vegetation assemblages, whereas elevation and livestock grazing were significant in defining forest type boundaries. On the floodplain islands, highly grazed Dalbergia sissoo-Acacia catechu forests were devoid of understory woody vegetation, but the lightly grazed D. sissoo-mixed forests had a well-developed second canopy layer, comprising woody species other than D. sissoo and A. catechu. In grasslands, species richness and biomass production were highest at intermediate disturbance level represented by the lightly grazed and ungrazed early-burned treatments. Ethnicity, education and resource use patterns were important in influencing conservation attitudes. A succession towards the mixed forests would occur in D. sissoo-dominated floodplain forests, where dams and barrages reduce flooding and associated fluvial processes, and if livestock grazing is stopped, as occasionally suggested by nature conservationists. In seasonally flooded grasslands, early burning with moderate grazing would enhance the species diversity and productivity. There is a need to implement a participatory integrated wetland management plan, to include community development, education and off farm income generation, to assure participatory conservation and management of wetlands in Nepal. ^