Pre-Election Positions and Voting Behaviour in Parliament: Consistency among Swiss MPs

This article examines the determinants of positional incongruence between pre-election statements and post-election behaviour in the Swiss parliament between 2003 and 2009. The question is examined at the individual MP level, which is appropriate for dispersion-of-powers systems like Switzerland. While the overall rate of political congruence reaches about 85%, a multilevel logit analysis detects the underlying factors which push or curb a candidate's propensity to change his or her mind once elected. The results show that positional changes are more likely when (1) MPs are freshmen, (2) individual voting behaviour is invisible to the public, (3) the electoral district magnitude is not small, (4) the vote is not about a party's core issue, (5) the MP belongs to a party which is located in the political centre, and (6) if the pre-election statement dissents from the majority position of the legislative party group. Of these factors, the last one is paramount.

Forecasting Intraday Stock Price Trends with Text Mining Techniques

In this paper, we describe NewsCATS (news categorization and trading system), a system implemented to predict stock price trends for the time immediately after the publication of press releases. NewsCATS consists mainly of three components. The first component retrieves relevant information from press releases through the application of text preprocessing techniques. The second component sorts the press releases into predefined categories. Finally, appropriate trading strategies are derived by the third component by means of the earlier categorization. The findings indicate that a categorization of press releases is able to provide additional information that can be used to forecast stock price trends, but that an adequate trading strategy is essential for the results of the categorization to be fully exploited.

How parties justified the 2014 EP election debate. A comparative analysis in six EU countries

On the role of parties as important channels for people to voice their preferences there is a sound consensus in the literature. Traditional socio-economic concerns have been more and more displaced by culturally fought issues such as immigration and European integration. Scholarly works, however, have paid less attention how, if at all, parties combine different cultural issues. The primary aim of the analysis is to investigate if and under which conditions parties link immigration and European integration issues to address the growing discontent in the population with these issues. Our expectation is that parties endorse different strategies depending on the party competition, in particular the presence of a populist challenger. The analysis is based on a quantitative content analysis of press releases and newspapers articles published in the 12 weeks preceding the 2014 EP election in five European countries (Austria, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom).

Forecasting cost based on a stochastic utilization plan and a fixed cost function

The application of Markov processes is very useful to health-care problems. The objective of this study is to provide a structured methodology of forecasting cost based upon combining a stochastic model of utilization (Markov Chain) and deterministic cost function. The perspective of the cost in this study is the reimbursement for the services rendered. The data to be used is the OneCare database of claim records of their enrollees over a two-year period of January 1, 1996–December 31, 1997. The model combines a Markov Chain that describes the utilization pattern and its variability where the use of resources by risk groups (age, gender, and diagnosis) will be considered in the process and a cost function determined from a fixed schedule based on real costs or charges for those in the OneCare claims database. The cost function is a secondary application to the model. Goodness-of-fit will be used checked for the model against the traditional method of cost forecasting. ^

'Reform' of the British national health service after the election of a labour government: Understanding the policy development process

The policy development process leading to the Labour government's white paper of December 1997—The new NHS: Modern, Dependable—is the focus of this project and the public policy development literature is used to aid in the understanding of this process. Policy makers who had been involved in the development of the white paper were interviewed in order to acquire a thorough understanding of who was involved in this process and how they produced the white paper. A theoretical framework is used that sorts policy development models into those that focus on knowledge and experience, and those which focus on politics and influence. This framework is central to understanding the evidence gathered from the individuals and associations that participated in this policy development process. The main research question to be asked in this project is to what extent do either of these sets of policy development models aid in understanding and explicating the process by which the Labour government's policies were developed. The interview evidence, along with published evidence, show that a clear pattern of policy change emerged from this policy development process, and the Knowledge-Experience and Politics-Influence policy making models both assist in understanding this process. The early stages of the policy development process were characterized as hierarchical and iterative, yet also very collaborative among those participating, with knowledge and experience being quite prevalent. At every point in the process, however, informal networks of political influence were used and noted to be quite prevalent by all of the individuals interviewed. The later stages of the process then became increasingly noninclusive, with decisions made by a select group of internal and external policy makers. These policy making models became an important tool with which to understand the policy development process. This Knowledge-Experience and Politics-Influence dichotomy of policy development models could therefore be useful in analyzing other types of policy development. ^

"Ripple Effects" and Forecasting Home Prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix

We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. First, temporal Granger causality tests reveal that Los Angeles housing prices cause housing prices in Las Vegas (directly) and Phoenix (indirectly). In addition, Las Vegas housing prices cause housing prices in Phoenix. Los Angeles housing prices prove exogenous in a temporal sense and Phoenix housing prices do not cause prices in the other two markets. Second, we calculate out-of-sample forecasts in each market, using various vector autoregessive (VAR) and vector error-correction (VEC) models, as well as Bayesian, spatial, and causality versions of these models with various priors. Different specifications provide superior forecasts in the different cities. Finally, we consider the ability of theses time-series models to provide accurate out-of-sample predictions of turning points in housing prices that occurred in 2006:Q4. Recursive forecasts, where the sample is updated each quarter, provide reasonably good forecasts of turning points.

Forecasting and Analyzing Economic Activity with Coincident and Leading Indexes: The Case of Connecticut

We develop coincident and leading employment indexes for the Connecticut economy. Four employment-related variables enter the coincident index while five employment-related variables enter the leading index. The peaks and troughs in the leading index lead the peaks and troughs in the coincident index by an average of 3 and 9 months. Finally, we use the leading index in vector-autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian vector-autoregressive (BVAR) models to forecast the coincident index, nonfarm employment, and the unemployment rate.

Recognizing a Single-Issue Spatial Election

A single-issue spatial election is a voter preference profile derived from an arrangement of candidates and voters on a line, with each voter preferring the nearer of each pair of candidates. We provide a polynomial-time algorithm that determines whether a given preference profile is a single-issue spatial election and, if so, constructs such an election. This result also has preference representation and mechanism design applications.

A comparison of techniques for forecasting utilization of Veterans Affairs hospitals

This study demonstrated that accurate, short-term forecasts of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospital utilization can be made using the Patient Treatment File (PTF), the inpatient discharge database of the VA. Accurate, short-term forecasts of two years or less can reduce required inventory levels, improve allocation of resources, and are essential for better financial management. These are all necessary achievements in an era of cost-containment.^ Six years of non-psychiatric discharge records were extracted from the PTF and used to calculate four indicators of VA hospital utilization: average length of stay, discharge rate, multi-stay rate (a measure of readmissions) and days of care provided. National and regional levels of these indicators were described and compared for fiscal year 1984 (FY84) to FY89 inclusive.^ Using the observed levels of utilization for the 48 months between FY84 and FY87, five techniques were used to forecast monthly levels of utilization for FY88 and FY89. Forecasts were compared to the observed levels of utilization for these years. Monthly forecasts were also produced for FY90 and FY91.^ Forecasts for days of care provided were not produced. Current inpatients with very long lengths of stay contribute a substantial amount of this indicator and it cannot be accurately calculated.^ During the six year period between FY84 and FY89, average length of stay declined substantially, nationally and regionally. The discharge rate was relatively stable, while the multi-stay rate increased slightly during this period. FY90 and FY91 forecasts show a continued decline in the average length of stay, while the discharge rate is forecast to decline slightly and the multi-stay rate is forecast to increase very slightly.^ Over a 24 month ahead period, all three indicators were forecast within a 10 percent average monthly error. The 12-month ahead forecast errors were slightly lower. Average length of stay was less easily forecast, while the multi-stay rate was the easiest indicator to forecast.^ No single technique performed significantly better as determined by the Mean Absolute Percent Error, a standard measure of error. However, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models performed well overall and are recommended for short-term forecasting of VA hospital utilization. ^

Predicting the Past and Forecasting the Future

A commentary on Santos' article, "Explaining Scholarship Addressing Hispanic Children’s Issues."

Criteria of election of postgraduate courses in graduated students of technological/ humanistic/ artistic professions : Subjective and contextual involvements to arrive at the conclusion of them

El aumento en la cantidad de estudios de posgrado y de sus cursantes derivados de la demanda por mayores credenciales académicas en lo laboral y por la búsqueda personal para especializarse profesionalmente, es un fenómeno observado en Argentina desde mediados de los años 90. Obtener el título final de estos estudios resulta un porcentaje muy inferior en relación al número de sus inscriptos. Tales motivos focalizaron nuestra atención para analizar tanto los criterios de elección del posgrado como las condiciones contextuales y subjetivas para alcanzar la titulación. Este estudio, de tipo cualitativo, investiga en tres carreras de Especialización que se cursan en diferentes Universidades nacionales , los aspectos de su organización y estilo propuesto para cursar y lograr la finalización de los estudios, así como las motivaciones de la elección de cursantes y egresados en tres ramas diferentes: artística, humanística y tecnológica. El conocimiento sobre la lógica de la organización y la particularidad del objeto de estudio de cada carrera permite analizar diferencias y semejanzas entre ellas aportando algunas propuestas para considerar en programas de formación; mientras que los trayectos de cursantes y egresados explican aspectos subjetivos que intervienen en la finalización o no del posgrado.

Criteria of election of postgraduate courses in graduated students of technological/ humanistic/ artistic professions : Subjective and contextual involvements to arrive at the conclusion of them

El aumento en la cantidad de estudios de posgrado y de sus cursantes derivados de la demanda por mayores credenciales académicas en lo laboral y por la búsqueda personal para especializarse profesionalmente, es un fenómeno observado en Argentina desde mediados de los años 90. Obtener el título final de estos estudios resulta un porcentaje muy inferior en relación al número de sus inscriptos. Tales motivos focalizaron nuestra atención para analizar tanto los criterios de elección del posgrado como las condiciones contextuales y subjetivas para alcanzar la titulación. Este estudio, de tipo cualitativo, investiga en tres carreras de Especialización que se cursan en diferentes Universidades nacionales , los aspectos de su organización y estilo propuesto para cursar y lograr la finalización de los estudios, así como las motivaciones de la elección de cursantes y egresados en tres ramas diferentes: artística, humanística y tecnológica. El conocimiento sobre la lógica de la organización y la particularidad del objeto de estudio de cada carrera permite analizar diferencias y semejanzas entre ellas aportando algunas propuestas para considerar en programas de formación; mientras que los trayectos de cursantes y egresados explican aspectos subjetivos que intervienen en la finalización o no del posgrado.

Criteria of election of postgraduate courses in graduated students of technological/ humanistic/ artistic professions : Subjective and contextual involvements to arrive at the conclusion of them

El aumento en la cantidad de estudios de posgrado y de sus cursantes derivados de la demanda por mayores credenciales académicas en lo laboral y por la búsqueda personal para especializarse profesionalmente, es un fenómeno observado en Argentina desde mediados de los años 90. Obtener el título final de estos estudios resulta un porcentaje muy inferior en relación al número de sus inscriptos. Tales motivos focalizaron nuestra atención para analizar tanto los criterios de elección del posgrado como las condiciones contextuales y subjetivas para alcanzar la titulación. Este estudio, de tipo cualitativo, investiga en tres carreras de Especialización que se cursan en diferentes Universidades nacionales , los aspectos de su organización y estilo propuesto para cursar y lograr la finalización de los estudios, así como las motivaciones de la elección de cursantes y egresados en tres ramas diferentes: artística, humanística y tecnológica. El conocimiento sobre la lógica de la organización y la particularidad del objeto de estudio de cada carrera permite analizar diferencias y semejanzas entre ellas aportando algunas propuestas para considerar en programas de formación; mientras que los trayectos de cursantes y egresados explican aspectos subjetivos que intervienen en la finalización o no del posgrado.