Magnetic cloud distortion resulting from propagation through a structured solar wind: Models and observations

Numerical simulations of magnetic clouds (MCs) propagating through a structured solar wind suggest that MC-associated magnetic flux ropes are highly distorted by inhomogeneities in the ambient medium. In particular, a solar wind configuration of fast wind from high latitudes and slow wind at low latitudes, common at periods close to solar minimum, should distort the cross section of magnetic clouds into concave-outward structures. This phenomenon has been reported in observations of shock front orientations, but not in the body of magnetic clouds. In this study an analytical magnetic cloud model based upon a kinematically distorted flux rope is modified to simulate propagation through a structured medium. This new model is then used to identify specific time series signatures of the resulting concave-outward flux ropes. In situ observations of three well studied magnetic clouds are examined with comparison to the model, but the expected concave-outward signatures are not present. Indeed, the observations are better described by the convex-outward flux rope model. This may be due to a sharp latitudinal transition from fast to slow wind, resulting in a globally concave-outward flux rope, but with convex-outward signatures on a local scale.

Modelling convective processes during the suppressed phase of the a Madden-Julian Oscillation: Comparing single-column models with cloud resolving models

The role of convective processes in moistening the atmosphere during suppressed periods of the suppressed phase of a Madden-Julian oscillation is investigated in cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations, and the impact of moistening on the subsequent evolution of convection is assessed as part of a Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study (GCSS) intercomparison project. The ability of single-column model (SCM) versions of a number of state-of-the-art climate and numerical weather prediction models to capture these convective processes is also evaluated. During the suppressed periods, the CRMs are found to simulate a maximum moistening around 3 km, which is associated with a predominance of shallow convection. All SCMs produce adequate amounts of shallow convection during the suppressed periods, comparable to that seen in CRMs, but the relatively drier SCMs have higher precipitation rates than the relatively wetter SCMs and CRMs. The relatively drier SCMs dry, rather than moisten, the lower troposphere below the melting level. During the transition periods, convective processes act to moisten the atmosphere above the level at which mean advection changes from moistening to drying, despite an overall drying effect for the column. The SCMs capture some essence of this moistening at upper levels. A gradual transition from shallow to deep convection is simulated by the CRMs and the wetter SCMs during the transition periods, but the onset of deep convection is delayed in the drier SCMs. This results in lower precipitation rates for these SCMs during the active periods, although much better agreement exists between the models at this time.

Validating ECMWF forecasts for the occurrence of ice supersaturation using visual observations of persistent contrails and radiosonde measurements over England

One of the largest uncertainties in quantifying the impact of aviation on climate concerns the formation and spreading of persistent contrails. The inclusion of a cloud scheme that allows for ice supersaturation into the integrated forecast system (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) can be a useful tool to help reduce these uncertainties. This study evaluates the quality of the ECMWF forecasts with respect to ice super saturation in the upper troposphere by comparing them to visual observations of persistent contrails and radiosonde measurements of ice supersaturation over England. The performance of 1- to 3-day forecasts is compared including also the vertical accuracy of the supersaturation forecasts. It is found that the operational forecasts from the ECMWF are able to predict cold ice supersaturated regions very well. For the best cases Peirce skill scores of 0.7 are obtained, with hit rates at times exceeding 80% and false-alarm rates below 20%. Results are very similar for comparisons with visual observations and radiosonde measurements, the latter providing the better statistical significance.

Results from the CERN pilot CLOUD experiment

During a 4-week run in October–November 2006, a pilot experiment was performed at the CERN Proton Synchrotron in preparation for the Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets (CLOUD) experiment, whose aim is to study the possible influence of cosmic rays on clouds. The purpose of the pilot experiment was firstly to carry out exploratory measurements of the effect of ionising particle radiation on aerosol formation from trace H2SO4 vapour and secondly to provide technical input for the CLOUD design. A total of 44 nucleation bursts were produced and recorded, with formation rates of particles above the 3 nm detection threshold of between 0.1 and 100 cm−3 s−1, and growth rates between 2 and 37 nm h−1. The corresponding H2SO4 concentrations were typically around 106 cm−3 or less. The experimentally-measured formation rates and H2SO4 concentrations are comparable to those found in the atmosphere, supporting the idea that sulphuric acid is involved in the nucleation of atmospheric aerosols. However, sulphuric acid alone is not able to explain the observed rapid growth rates, which suggests the presence of additional trace vapours in the aerosol chamber, whose identity is unknown. By analysing the charged fraction, a few of the aerosol bursts appear to have a contribution from ion-induced nucleation and ion-ion recombination to form neutral clusters. Some indications were also found for the accelerator beam timing and intensity to influence the aerosol particle formation rate at the highest experimental SO2 concentrations of 6 ppb, although none was found at lower concentrations. Overall, the exploratory measurements provide suggestive evidence for ion-induced nucleation or ion-ion recombination as sources of aerosol particles. However in order to quantify the conditions under which ion processes become significant, improvements are needed in controlling the experimental variables and in the reproducibility of the experiments. Finally, concerning technical aspects, the most important lessons for the CLOUD design include the stringent requirement of internal cleanliness of the aerosol chamber, as well as maintenance of extremely stable temperatures (variations below 0.1 _C).

An overview of Earth’s global electric circuit and atmospheric conductivity

The Earth’s global atmospheric electric circuit depends on the upper and lower atmospheric boundaries formed by the ionosphere and the planetary surface. Thunderstorms and electrified rain clouds drive a DC current (∼1 kA) around the circuit, with the current carried by molecular cluster ions; lightning phenomena drive the AC global circuit. The Earth’s near-surface conductivity ranges from 10−7 S m−1 (for poorly conducting rocks) to 10−2 S m−1 (for clay or wet limestone), with a mean value of 3.2 S m−1 for the ocean. Air conductivity inside a thundercloud, and in fair weather regions, depends on location (especially geomagnetic latitude), aerosol pollution and height, and varies from ∼10−14 S m−1 just above the surface to 10−7 S m−1 in the ionosphere at ∼80 km altitude. Ionospheric conductivity is a tensor quantity due to the geomagnetic field, and is determined by parameters such as electron density and electron–neutral particle collision frequency. In the current source regions, point discharge (coronal) currents play an important role below electrified clouds; the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo and the unipolar dynamo due to the terrestrial rotating dipole moment also apply atmospheric potential differences. Detailed measurements made near the Earth’s surface show that Ohm’s law relates the vertical electric field and current density to air conductivity. Stratospheric balloon measurements launched from Antarctica confirm that the downward current density is ∼1 pA m−2 under fair weather conditions. Fortuitously, a Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event arrived at Earth during one such balloon flight, changing the observed atmospheric conductivity and electric fields markedly. Recent modelling considers lightning discharge effects on the ionosphere’s electric potential (∼+250 kV with respect to the Earth’s surface) and hence on the fair weather potential gradient (typically ∼130 V m−1 close to the Earth’s surface. We conclude that cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning discharges make only a small contribution to the ionospheric potential, and that sprites (namely, upward lightning above energetic thunderstorms) only affect the global circuit in a miniscule way. We also investigate the effects of mesoscale convective systems on the global circuit.

GIS in the cloud: implementing a web map service on Google App Engine

Many producers of geographic information are now disseminating their data using open web service protocols, notably those published by the Open Geospatial Consortium. There are many challenges inherent in running robust and reliable services at reasonable cost. Cloud computing provides a new kind of scalable infrastructure that could address many of these challenges. In this study we implement a Web Map Service for raster imagery within the Google App Engine environment. We discuss the challenges of developing GIS applications within this framework and the performance characteristics of the implementation. Results show that the application scales well to multiple simultaneous users and performance will be adequate for many applications, although concerns remain over issues such as latency spikes. We discuss the feasibility of implementing services within the free usage quotas of Google App Engine and the possibility of extending the approaches in this paper to other GIS applications.

Oxidation of oleic acid at the air-water interface and its potential effects on cloud critical supersaturations

The oxidation of organic films on cloud condensation nuclei has the potential to affect climate and precipitation events. In this work we present a study of the oxidation of a monolayer of deuterated oleic acid (cis-9-octadecenoic acid) at the air-water interface by ozone to determine if oxidation removes the organic film or replaces it with a product film. A range of different aqueous sub-phases were studied. The surface excess of deuterated material was followed by neutron reflection whilst the surface pressure was followed using a Wilhelmy plate. The neutron reflection data reveal that approximately half the organic material remains at the air-water interface following the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone, thus cleavage of the double bond by ozone creates one surface active species and one species that partitions to the bulk (or gas) phase. The most probable products, produced with a yield of similar to(87 +/- 14)%, are nonanoic acid, which remains at the interface, and azelaic acid (nonanedioic acid), which dissolves into the bulk solution. We also report a surface bimolecular rate constant for the reaction between ozone and oleic acid of (7.3 +/- 0.9) x 10(-11) cm(2) molecule s(-1). The rate constant and product yield are not affected by the solution sub-phase. An uptake coefficient of ozone on the oleic acid monolayer of similar to 4 x 10(-6) is estimated from our results. A simple Kohler analysis demonstrates that the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone on an atmospheric aerosol will lower the critical supersaturation needed for cloud droplet formation. We calculate an atmospheric chemical lifetime of oleic acid of 1.3 hours, significantly longer than laboratory studies on pure oleic acid particles suggest, but more consistent with field studies reporting oleic acid present in aged atmospheric aerosol.

Disparity with respect to a local reference plane as a dominant cue for stereoscopic depth relief

Earlier studies showed that the disparity with respect to other visible points could not explain stereoacuity performance, nor could various spatial derivatives of disparity [Glennerster, A., McKee, S. P., & Birch, M. D. (2002). Evidence of surface-based processing of binocular disparity. Current Biology, 12:825-828; Petrov, Y., & Glennerster, A. (2004). The role of the local reference in stereoscopic detection of depth relief. Vision Research, 44:367-376.] Two possible cues remain: (i) local changes in disparity gradient or (ii) disparity with respect to an interpolated line drawn through the reference points. Here, we aimed to distinguish between these two cues. Subjects judged.. in a two AFC paradigm, whether a target dot was in front of a plane defined by three reference dots or, in other experiments, in front of a line defined by two reference dots. We tested different slants of the reference line or plane and different locations of the target relative to the reference points. For slanted reference lines or plane, stereoacuity changed little as the target position was varied. For judgments relative to a frontoparallel reference line, stereoacuity did vary with target position, but less than would be predicted by disparity gradient change. This provides evidence that disparity with respect to the reference plane is an important cue. We discuss the potential advantages of this measure in generating a representation of surface relief that is invariant to viewpoint transformations. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From base-rate to cumulative respect

The tendency to neglect base-rates in judgment under uncertainty may be "notorious," as Barbey & Sloman (B&S) suggest, but it is neither inevitable (as they document; see also Koehler 1996) nor unique. Here we would like to point out another line of evidence connecting ecological rationality to dual processes, the failure of individuals to appropriately judge cumulative probability.

Observing Forbush decreases in cloud at Shetland

Meteorological measurements from Lerwick Observatory, Shetland (60°09′N, 1°08′W), are compared with short-term changes in Climax neutron counter cosmic ray measurements. For transient neutron count reductions of 10–12%, broken cloud becomes at least 10% more frequent on the neutron minimum day, above expectations from sampling. This suggests a rapid timescale (1 day) cloud response to cosmic ray changes. However, larger or smaller neutron count reductions do not coincide with cloud responses exceeding sampling effects. Larger events are too rare to provide a robust signal above the sampling noise. Smaller events are too weak to be observed above the natural variability.

Effect of improving representation of horizontal and vertical cloud structure on the Earth's global radiation budget. Part I: review and parametrization

A poor representation of cloud structure in a general circulation model (GCM) is widely recognised as a potential source of error in the radiation budget. Here, we develop a new way of representing both horizontal and vertical cloud structure in a radiation scheme. This combines the ‘Tripleclouds’ parametrization, which introduces inhomogeneity by using two cloudy regions in each layer as opposed to one, each with different water content values, with ‘exponential-random’ overlap, in which clouds in adjacent layers are not overlapped maximally, but according to a vertical decorrelation scale. This paper, Part I of two, aims to parametrize the two effects such that they can be used in a GCM. To achieve this, we first review a number of studies for a globally applicable value of fractional standard deviation of water content for use in Tripleclouds. We obtain a value of 0.75 ± 0.18 from a variety of different types of observations, with no apparent dependence on cloud type or gridbox size. Then, through a second short review, we create a parametrization of decorrelation scale for use in exponential-random overlap, which varies the scale linearly with latitude from 2.9 km at the Equator to 0.4 km at the poles. When applied to radar data, both components are found to have radiative impacts capable of offsetting biases caused by cloud misrepresentation. Part II of this paper implements Tripleclouds and exponential-random overlap into a radiation code and examines both their individual and combined impacts on the global radiation budget using re-analysis data.