Fixed versus Flexible: lessons from EMS order Flow

We extend the literature on regime-dependent volatility in two ways. First, our microstructural model provides a qualitatively new explanation. Second, we test implications of our model using Europe's recent shift to rigidly fixed rates (EMS to EMU). In the model, shocks to order flow induce more volatility under flexible rates because the elasticity of speculative demand is (endogenously) low, leading to pronounced portfolio-balance effects. New data on FF/DM transactions show that order flow had persistent effects on the exchange rate before EMU parities were announced. After announcement, the FF/DM rate was decoupled from order flow, as the model predicts.

The Diminishing Returns to Trade Policy in the European Union

The notion that the EU is a trade power is central to studies of the Union’s international presence. Credible threats to withhold access to Europe’s markets are said to provide the Union with leverage in respect of other trade partners. This paper queries the continuing ability of the European Union to act effectively this way. The current Doha malaise is a symptom of deeper changes in the international trade system. As emerging markets become more affluent and participate in foreign direct investment, their interest in market access per se become less important relative to other areas of regulation.

Solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs

We present a simple framework in which both the exchange rate disconnect and forward bias puzzles are simultaneously resolved. The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Habitpersistence is modeled using Campbell Cochrane preferences with ‘deep’ habits along the lines of the work of Ravn, Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe. By deep habits, we mean habits defined over goods rather than countries. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. It offers a neo-classical explanation of the Meese–Rogoff puzzle and mimics the failure of fundamentals to explain nominal exchange rates in a linear setting. Finally, the model naturally generates the negative slope in the standard forward market regression.

Firms and Innovative Conflict Management Systems in Ireland

This article examines the practices adopted by firms in the Republic of Ireland to manage conflict involving groups of employees, focusing in particular on the uptake of 'alternative dispute resolution practices'. The article reveals that conflict management practices take the form of 'systems', and it estimates the incidence of innovative conflict management systems, incorporating alternative dispute resolution (ADR) practices, as involving about 30 per cent of firms. A series of influences are shown to be associated with innovative, ADR-based conflict management systems, especially commitment-oriented HRM practices and whether unions are recognized. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd/London School of Economics 2010.

A framework for designing robust food supply chains

After years of emphasis on leanness and responsiveness businesses are now experiencing their vulnerability to supply chain disturbances. Although more literature is appearing on this subject, there is a need for an integrated framework to support the analysis and design of robust food supply chains. In this chapter we present such a framework. We define the concept of robustness and classify supply chain disturbances, sources of food supply chain vulnerability, and adequate redesign principles and strategies to achieve robust supply chain performances. To test and illustrate its applicability, the research framework is applied to a meat supply chain.

Asymmetric information without common priors: an indirect evolutionary analysis of quantity competition

The common prior assumption justifies private beliefs as posterior probabilities when updating a common prior based on individual information. We dispose of the common prior assumption for a homogeneous oligopoly market with uncertain costs and firms entertaining arbitrary priors about other firms' cost-type. We show that true prior beliefs can not be evolutionarily stable when truly expected profit measures (reproductive) success.

International Projects and Cross-Cultural Adjustment of British Expatriates in Middle East: A Qualitative Investigation of Influencing Factors

Increased globalisation within the British AEC (Architectural, Engineering and Construction) sector has increased the need for companies to transfer staff to manage their overseas operations. To be able to perform abroad, expatriates must harmonise themselves to the conditions prevailing in the host country. These include getting accustomed to living, working and interacting with the host country nationals. The process is commonly referred to as 'cross-cultural adjustment'. Various factors influence the process of adjustment. In order to identify these issues, a qualitative study was undertaken, which mainly comprised of comprehensive literature review, individual interviews and focus group discussion with British expatriates working on international AEC assignments in Middle Eastern countries. Through interpretative approach, the current study aims to understand the concept of cross-cultural adjustment of British Expatriates based in Middle East and their influencing factors.

The findings suggest that success of expatriation does not entirely rest on an expatriate's ability but also on organisational support and assistance that expatriates receive prior to and during the assignment. Organisational factors such as selection mechanisms, job design, training, logistical and social support, mentoring, etc., influence various facets of expatriate adjustment. Striking cultural contrasts between British and Arab culture both in work and non work situations also dictate the level of support required by the expatriate, suggesting that relocation to less developed, remote or politically unstable regions, demands additional support and consideration by the parent company. This study is relevant to the AEC companies employing British expatriates, who need to be cognisant of the issues highlighted above to make rational and informed decisions when handling international assignments in the Middle East.

If Music Be the Food of Love:An Acoustic ‘Fourth World’ in Ong Keng Sen’s Awaking”

Staged as an attempt to ‘bring together Shakespeare’s plays and Tang Xian Zu’s classical Kunqu opera, The Peony Pavilion,’ (Ong, Programme Notes) Awaking stands as Singapore Director Ong Keng Sen’s most recent and prominent attempt at engaging issues of the intercultural through music and sound. While Ong’s previous intercultural projects sought to explore the politics of intercultural performance through the exchange, layering, confrontation and inter-mixing of Asian performance modes as visual aesthetics, Awaking is a performance at the borders of theatrical and musical conventions, as it features the music and musicians as central performative devices of staging the intercultural. Northern Kunqu opera, Chinese classical music and Elizabethan folk tunes from Shakespeare’s plays were re-moved, re-contextualised, and juxtaposed to explore ‘differing yet connected philosophies on love, death, and the afterlife’ (Awaking, Publicity). These humanist and ‘universal’ themes found expression in the ‘universal’ language of music. Through a study of the musicalities and sonic expressions of Awaking, the paper seeks to explore the implications of such cultural-musical juxtapositions. The paper engages, specifically, with the problematics and possibilities of music as a ‘universal language’ as implied by Ong’s concordance of Eastern and Western sounds in the final act. It further considers the politics of an intercultural soundscape and the acoustemologies of such an intercultural approach.

Cross‐national mentoring NGOs in transition societies: Field research and developments in Bulgaria

Non‐governmental organizations (NGOs) in societies undergoing socio‐economic transition are widely regarded as central to building a civil society that encourages democracy. At the moment, the Bulgarian civil society depends greatly on foreign funding whilst NGOs are unable to empower their beneficiaries in decision‐making. Given this reality, are cross‐national NGO partnerships able to strengthen organisations? What kinds of support are on offer, what kinds of (inter) dependency relations occur and to what extent do NGOs model their management practices on their mentor and with what results?
This paper sets out to situate these questions in the context of a proposed theoretical construct, organizational mentoring, which occurs where national or local organisations have access to and support of well‐established NGOs abroad. The model is constructed on the findings of a qualitative case study conducted in Bulgaria on the development of a Bulgarian NGO and its relationship with a UK NGO. This is preceded by a discussion on selected literature reflecting the meaning of transition, change in societal values and organizational practices in Eastern Europe, and the development of voluntary sector organizations in transforming countries. The theoretical model proposed here is relevant in providing a systematic discussion on organizational change towards a more enlightened engagement between civil society organizations in cross‐national partnerships. Such discussion has implications for the development of hybrid forms of coexistence between Eastern and Western European partners reflected in their interdependent organizational practices.

An international comparison of legal frameworks for supported and substitute decision-making in mental health services

There have been important recent developments in law, research, policy and practice relating to supporting people with decision-making impairments, in particular when a person’s wishes and preferences are unclear or inaccessible. A driver in this respect is the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD); the implications of the CRPD for policy and professional practices are currently debated. This article reviews and compares four legal frameworks for supported and substitute decision-making for people whose decision-making ability is impaired. In particular, it explores how these frameworks may apply to people with mental health problems. The four jurisdictions are: Ontario, Canada; Victoria, Australia; England and Wales, United Kingdom (UK); and Northern Ireland, UK. Comparisons and contrasts are made in the key areas of: the legal framework for supported and substitute decision-making; the criteria for intervention; the assessment process; the safeguards; and issues in practice. Thus Ontario has developed a relatively comprehensive, progressive and influential legal framework over the past thirty years but there remain concerns about the standardisation of decision-making ability assessments and how the laws work together. In Australia, the Victorian Law Reform Commission (2012) has recommended that the six different types of substitute decision-making under the three laws in that jurisdiction, need to be simplified, and integrated into a spectrum that includes supported decision-making. In England and Wales the Mental Capacity Act 2005 has a complex interface with mental health law. In Northern Ireland it is proposed to introduce a new Mental Capacity (Health, Welfare and Finance) Bill that will provide a unified structure for all substitute decision-making. The discussion will consider the key strengths and limitations of the approaches in each jurisdiction and identify possible ways that further progress can be made in law, policy and practice.

Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.