The private memory of aggregate shocks

Em economias caracterizadas por choques agregados e privados, mostramos que a alocação ótima restrita pode depender de forma não-trivial dos choques agregados. Usando versões dos modelos de Atkeson e Lucas (1992) e Mirrlees (1971) de dois períodos, é mostrado que a alocação ótima apresenta memória com relação aos choques agregados mesmo eles sendo i.i.d. e independentes dos choques individuais, quando esses últimos choques não são totalmente persistentes. O fato de os choques terem efeitos persistentes na alocação mesmo sendo informação pública, foi primeiramente apresentado em Phelan (1994). Nossas simulações numéricas indicam que esse não é um resultado pontual: existe uma relação contínua entre persistência de tipos privados e memória do choque agregado.

The effect of social security, demography and technology on retirement

This article investigates the causes in the reduction of labor force participation of the old. We argue that the changes in social security policy, in technology and in demography may account for most of the changes in retirement over the second part of the last century in the U.S. economy. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds social security legislation. The model is able to match very closely the increase in the retirement rate of males aged 65 and older. It also quanti es the isolated impact on retirement and on the solvency of the social security system of the di¤erent factors. The model suggests that technological and demographic changes had a strong in uence on retirement, so that it would have increased signi cantly even if the social security rules had not changed. However, as the latter became much more generous in the past, changes in social security policy can account not only for a sizeable part of the expansion of retirement, but also for the most of the observed increase in the social security expenses as a share of GDP.

Avaliação do apêndice atrial esquerdo pela ecocardiografia transtorácica com imagem harmônica após evento neurológico agudo

Introdução: Embora a imagem com segunda harmônica esteja largamente disponível na maioria dos aparelhos de ultra-sonografia, sua acurácia para avaliar a morfologia e a função do apêndice atrial esquerdo (AAE) permanece precariamente caracterizada. Objetivos: Explorar o desempenho diagnóstico da ecocardiografia transtorácica com segunda harmônica (ETTsh) na avaliação do AAE após eventos neurológicos agudos. Métodos: Realizamos um estudo transversal em pacientes com eventos neurológicos isquêmicos agudos, encaminhados para realização de ETTsh e Ecocardiografia Transesofágica (ETE). As análises da área longitudinal máxima e do pico da velocidade de esvaziamento de fluxo do AAE foram realizadas por observadores cegos. Resultados: Foram avaliados 51 pacientes (49% femininas, 62 ± 12 anos) com eventos neurológicos isquêmicos agudos. Contraste ecocardiográfico espontâneo foi observado em 11 (22%) pacientes no AE, em 7(14%) no AAE e em 3 (6%) na aorta torácica descendente. Trombo no AAE foi identificado em apenas 2 (4%) pacientes. O mapeamento e a análise do AAE foi factível na maioria dos casos (98%), tanto para o estudo com Doppler quanto para avaliação da área do AAE. Observamos uma associação positiva e significativa entre o ETTsh e o ETE, tanto para a avaliação das velocidades máximas de esvaziamento do AAE (r=0,63; p<0,001) quanto para a área longitudinal máxima do AAE (r=0,73; p<0,001). Ademais, todos os pacientes com trombos no AAE ou contraste espontâneo (n=7) tiveram velocidade de esvaziamento inferior a 50 cm/s no mapeamento transtorácico (valor preditivo negativo de 100%). Na análise multivariada ajustada para diversos potenciais preditores transtorácicos de risco, a velocidade máxima de esvaziamento do AAE permaneceu independentemente associada com trombos no AAE ou contraste espontâneo. Conclusão: ETTsh pode fornecer informações relevantes a respeito da morfologia e dinâmica do AAE. Em particular, pacientes com velocidades altas de esvaziamento do AAE podem não necessitar de avaliação adicional com ETE.

Job destruction and propagation of shocks

We develop and quantitatively implement a dynamic general equilibrium model with labor market matching and endogenous deterllÚnation of the job destruction rate. The mo deI produces a elose match with data on job creation and destruction. Cyelical fluctuations in the job destruction rate serve to magnify the effects of productivity shocks on output; as well as making the effects much more persistent. Interactions between the labor and capital markets, mediated by the rental rate of capital, play the central role in propagating shocks.

Effects of trade policy on technology adoption and investment

This paper studies the consequences of trade policy for the adoption of new technologies. It develops a dynamic international trade model with two sectors. Workers in manufacturing decide if new technologies are used, capital owners then choose investment. We analyze three different arrangements: free trade, tariffs, and quotas. In the model economy, free trade as well as tariffs guarantee that the most productive technology available will be used. In contrasL under a quota the most productive technology available will not be used at all times. Further, in the latter case investment and the capital stock are smaller than in the former one. Finally, there exists parameter values for which the computed difference in GDP is a factor of thirty.

Import substitution and economic growth

In spite of Latin America s dismal economic performance between the 1950s and 1980s, the region experienced strong capital deepening. Furthermore, pro- ductivity (measured as TFP) grew at low rates in comparison with the U.S. In this paper, we suggest that all these facts can be explained as a consequence of the restrictive trade regime adopted at that time. Our analytical framework is based on a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model, with scale economies in the capital- intensive sector. We assume an economy that is initially open and specialized in the production of labor-intensive goods. The trade regime is modeled as a move to a closed economy. The model produces results consistent with the Latin American experience. Speci cally, for a su¢ ciently small country, there will be no long-run growth in income per capita, but capital per capita will increase. As a result, measured TFP will fall.

Potencial larvicida de extratos de plantas regionais no controle de larvas de Aedes aegypti

Dengue, amongst the virus illnesses one can get by vectorial transmission, is the one that causes more impact in the morbidity and mortality of world s population. The resistance to the insecticides has caused difficulties to control of vector insect (Aedes aegypti) and has stimulated a search for vegetables with larvicidal activity. The biodiversity of Caatinga is barely known and it is potential of use even less. Some plants of this biome are commercialized in free fairs northeast of Brazil, because of its phytotherapics properties. The vegetables in this study had been selected by means of a questionnaire applied between grass salesmen and natives of the Serido region from Rio Grande do Norte state; culicids eggs had been acquired with traps and placed in container with water for the larva birth. Thirty larvae had been used in each group (a group control and five experimental groups), with four repetitions four times. The vegetables had been submitted to the processes of decoction, infusion and maceration in the standard concentration of 100g of the vegetable of study in 1l of H2O and analyzed after ½, 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, 24 and 48 hours for verification of the average lethal dose (LD50) from the groups with thirty larva. The LD50 was analyzed in different concentrations (50g/l, 100g/l, 150g/l, 200g/l e 300g/l) of Aspidosperma pyrifolium Mart. 48 extracts of rind, leaf and stem of the seven vegetal species: Aspidosperma pyrifolium Mart., Mimosa verrucosa Benth, Mimosa hostilis (Mart.) Benth., Myracrodruon urundeuva Allemão, Ximenia americana L, Bumelia sartorum Mart Zizyphus joazeiro Mart, had been analyzed. The extracts proceeding from the three methods were submitted to the freezedrying, to evaluate and to quantify substances extracted in each process. The results had shown that Aspidosperma pyrifolium Mart. and Myracrodruon urundeuva Allemão are the species that are more distinguished as larvicidal after 24 hours of experiment, in all used processes of extraction in the assays. The Zizyphus joazeiro Mart species has not shown larvicidal activity in none of the assays. In relation to the extraction method, the decoction was the most efficient method in the mortality tax of the A. aegypti larvae

Germinação de sementes e otimização de técnicas de micropropagação de umbuzeiro (spondias tuberosa, arr.) anacardiaceae

The brazilian-plum (Spondias tuberosa, His) is a tropical fruit tree that has been consolidated in the market for agribusiness processing, due to its characteristic flavor of fruit. Accordingly, studies to optimize the propagation of plants are necessary for production of seedlings with agronomic and quality assurance measures. This study aimed at determining the efficient techniques for uniform seed germination, as brazilian-plum seed present mechanical dormancy, and establish optimal culture media for multiplication of shoots from the in vitro micropropagation. Firstly, in a greenhouse at the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, was evaluated the influence of different methods of breaking dormancy in the emergence of seedlings of brazilian-plum and speed of germination (IVG) of seeds. After 60 days of cultivation, it was found that splay in the distal portion of the seed was the best treatment, with rates of 85.33% in germinability and 3.415 of IVG, compared with the treatment of seed-soaking in water for 12h + humus and the control group. Subsequently, new sources of seedling explants were obtained in studies of tissue culture. Laboratory of Plant Biotechnology that the university, was used stem apex, nodal segments and internodes in search of decontamination with various concentrations of calcium hypochlorite [Ca(OCl)2] and micropropagation, inoculating them in half WPM (1980) with various concentrations of 6-benzylaminopurine (BAP). We used 10 sample units with three replications for different concentrations of [Ca(OCl)2], BAP and explants type. After thirty days, which was observed for the control of contamination, during the establishment in vitro, concentrations of [Ca(OCl)2] between 0.5% and 2.0% were effective in combating exogenous contamination of the apex. In nodal segments and internodes, concentrations of [Ca(OCl)2] between 1.0% and 2.0% and 1.5% and 2.0% were respectively, sufficient to reduce the percentage of losses in these infestations explants. For micropropagation, the culture medium supplemented with 0.1 mg.L-1 BAP promotes better development of multiple shoots per explants from nodal segment. However, success does not get to shoot training in internodal segment

A Escola sob o olhar da família: relações que se compreendem e se praticam no cotidiano

This study approaches the relations of family and school, from the perspective of the family. It aims to analyze the meanings attributed by family to the school as a space for plural relationships, and understand the relations that these mothers constitute culturally with schools and their everyday pedagogical practices. When we seek to understand this problematic, it was established as guiding principles of the search in/from/with everyday life. Accordingly, we focused on, as main interlocutors, mothers and authors such as Certeau (1994), Morin (2000) and Freire (1978), among others, on the understanding that cultural diversity is an essential element of the complex relationship between family and public school, because they come from different cultural contexts. In the course of the research it was made the use of the procedure of dialogic conversation as a production process and information analysis. The current analysis highlights that families observe the difference between cultural and report that they are from different socio-political context set by the school, they came from rural areas and their lives were marked by the struggle for survival, and the work activity has been present since their childhood. For the families that participated in this research the school is/was not part of the cultural repertoire significance in their lives and it feels that they attribute to them, are in negotiations with their symbolic universe. The mothers hold a speech of a schoolar binding and pertencing, but the school has the time as possible in their daily lives. Thus, the dynamics of family and school relationships, is configured as complex, and the ambiguity in maternal speech marks a thinking/doing about the school in which they demonstrate ways of making the common man, involving the art of duplicity of the saying and doing, gimmnicks and antidiscipline

A precarização do trabalho do enfermeiro na estratégia saúde da família: contribuição ao debate

This study makes an analysis of the work of nurse of the, uncovering the meaning of work and of precarious work for the nurse. aims to analyze the forms of precariousness of work of the nurse of Family Health Strategy the municipality of Pau dos Ferros-RN, Brazil. This is a qualitative study with analysis of the categories that emerged from search through dialog with the authors studied in theoretical framework of the sense of human work, the world of work actual and the precariousness of work in health. Used if the methodology of thematic oral history and semi-structured interview as an instrument for data collection and information. Participated 07 nurses of. There was predominance of females, with civil state married, with age between 29 and 47 years, inserted as nurses in Family Health Strategy 1 to 9 years. All referred satisfaction with work. Emerged 02 main meanings of work, whichever the design of work as a source of human and practical transforming of reality, with the sense of perform an action by the individual facilitator and suffers change. Include the precarious work not only as the absence of links labor and social protection, unlike the thought of the Ministry of Health, similar to the design of the study, the precariousness understood yet as the absence of participation of workers in the spaces work management and running of the work and the absence of structural conditions and infra-structural where the work process takes place. evidenced the totality of nurses inserted in Family Health Strategy by public tender. Refer have labor rights guaranteed. Don´t include under which legal arrangements are governed. The researched reality does not have a policy desprecarização nursing work of Family Health Strategy. Concluded the municipality presents progress and setbacks for the precariousness of work of the nurse of Family Health Strategy. The collective work in health is a challenge in researched reality and the policy of desprecarização of the work of the management of education and work was not evidenced. Despite the implementation of the public tender these professionals have a degree of precariousness of work, with the accumulation gradient of responsibilities, some lack of working conditions in structural aspects, infra-structural and means and instruments

Busca heurística através de algoritmo genético e memético com construção de vocábulos para o problema de atribuição de localidades a anéis Sonet

Telecommunications play a key role in contemporary society. However, as new technologies are put into the market, it also grows the demanding for new products and services that depend on the offered infrastructure, making the problems of planning telecommunications networks, despite the advances in technology, increasingly larger and complex. However, many of these problems can be formulated as models of combinatorial optimization, and the use of heuristic algorithms can help solving these issues in the planning phase. In this project it was developed two pure metaheuristic implementations Genetic algorithm (GA) and Memetic Algorithm (MA) plus a third hybrid implementation Memetic Algorithm with Vocabulary Building (MA+VB) for a problem in telecommunications that is known in the literature as Problem SONET Ring Assignment Problem or SRAP. The SRAP arises during the planning stage of the physical network and it consists in the selection of connections between a number of locations (customers) in order to meet a series of restrictions on the lowest possible cost. This problem is NP-hard, so efficient exact algorithms (in polynomial complexity ) are not known and may, indeed, even exist