Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

Floristic, edaphic and structural characteristics of flooded and unflooded forests in the lower Rio Purús region of central Amazonia, Brazil

Despite a natural history interest in the early 1900s, relatively little ecological research has been carried out in the Rio Purús basin of central Amazonia, Brazil. Here we describe a new study area in the region of Lago Uauaçú with an emphasis on the climate, forest structure and composition, and soil characteristics between adjacent unflooded (terra firme) and seasonally inundated forests; situated within both the white-water (várzea) and black-water (igapó) drainage systems that dominate the landscape. The climate was found to be typical of that of the central Amazon. Várzea forest soils had high concentrations of nutrients, while terra firme and igapó soils were comparatively nutrient-poor. Terra firme forests were the most floristically diverse forest type, whereas várzea was intermediate, and igapó the most species-poor. The Lecythidaceae was the most important family in terra firme while the Euphorbiaceae was the most important in both várzea and igapó. There were significant differences between forest types in terms of number of saplings, canopy cover and understorey density. In contrasting our results with other published information, we conclude that the Lago Uauaçú region consists of a typical central Amazonian forest macro-mosaic, but is a unique area with high conservation value due to the intimate juxtaposition of terra firme, várzea and igapó forests.

Desenvolvimento de estruturas fibrosas com comportamento auxético

Tese de Doutoramento Engenharia Têxtil

Effects of forest structure components on the occurence, group size and density of groups of bare-face tamarin (Saguinus bicolor - primates: Callitrichinae) in Central Amazonia

This study analyzed the influence of forest structural components on the occurence, size and density of groups of Bare-face Tamarin (Saguinus bicolor) - the most threatened species in the Amazon - and produced the first map of distribution of groups in large-scale spatial within the area of continuous forest. Population censuses were conducted between November 2002 and July 2003, covering 6400 hectares in the Ducke Reserve, Manaus-AM, Brazil. Groups of S. bicolor were recorded 41 times accordingly distributed in the environments: plateau (20); slopes (12); and lowlands (09). The mean group size was 4.8 indiv./group, and ranged from 2 to 11 individuals. In the sites where the groups were recorded, and in an equivalent number of sites where no tamarins were found located at least 500 m from those where they had been recorded, we placed 50 m x 50 m plots to record the following forest structural components: abundance of trees; abundance of lianas; abundance of fruiting trees and lianas; abundance of snags; abundance of logs; percentage of canopy opening; leaf litter depth; and altitude. Bare-face Tamarin more often uses areas with lower abundance of forest logs, smaller canopy opening and with higher abundance of snags, areas in the forest with smaller canopy opening present higher density of S. bicolor groups. Apparently this species does not use the forest in a random way, and may select areas for its daily activities depending on the micro-environmental heterogeneity produced by the forest structural components.

Measurement of the forward-backward asymmetry of electron and muon pair-production in pp collisions at s√ = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents measurements from the ATLAS experiment of the forward-backward asymmetry in the reaction pp→Z/γ∗→l+l−, with l being electrons or muons, and the extraction of the effective weak mixing angle. The results are based on the full set of data collected in 2011 in pp collisions at the LHC at s√ = 7 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.8 fb−1. The measured asymmetry values are found to be in agreement with the corresponding Standard Model predictions. The combination of the muon and electron channels yields a value of the effective weak mixing angle of 0.2308±0.0005(stat.)±0.0006(syst.)±0.0009(PDF), where the first uncertainty corresponds to data statistics, the second to systematic effects and the third to knowledge of the parton density functions. This result agrees with the current world average from the Particle Data Group fit.

Extreme value Birnbaum-Saunders regression models applied to environmental data

Extreme value models are widely used in different areas. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is receiving considerable attention due to its physical arguments and its good properties. We propose a methodology based on extreme value Birnbaum–Saunders regression models, which includes model formulation, estimation, inference and checking. We further conduct a simulation study for evaluating its performance. A statistical analysis with real-world extreme value environmental data using the methodology is provided as illustration.

Outcrossing rate of Couratari multiflora (J.Smith) Eyma (Lecythidaceae), a low-density tropical tree species from a central Amazonian rainforest

A multilocus mixed-mating model was used to evaluate the mating system of a population of Couratari multiflora, an emergent tree species found in low densities (1 individual/10 ha) in lowland forests of central Amazonia. We surveyed and observed phenologically 41 trees in an area of 400 ha. From these, only four mother trees were analyzed here because few of them set fruits, which also suffered high predation. No difference was observed between the population multilocus outcrossing rate (t mp = 0.953 ± 0.040) and the average single locus rate (t sp = 0.968 ± 0.132). The four mother trees were highly outcrossed (t m ~ 1). Two out of five loci showed departures from the Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) expectations, and the same results occurred with the mixed-mating model. Besides the low number of trees analyzed, the proportion of loci in HWE suggests random mating in the population. However, the pollen pool was heterogeneous among families, probably due to both the small sample number and the flowering of trees at different times of the flowering season. Reproductive phenology of the population and the results presented here suggest, at least for part of the population, a long-distance pollen movement, around 1,000 m.

Density, size and distribution of stomata in 35 rainforest tree species in Central Amazonia

Stomata are turgor-operated valves that control water loss and CO2 uptake during photosynthesis, and thereby water relation and plant biomass accumulation is closely related to stomatal functioning. The aims of this work were to document how stomata are distributed on the leaf surface and to determine if there is any significant variation in stomatal characteristics among Amazonian tree species, and finally to study the relationship between stomatal density (S D) and tree height. Thirty five trees (>17 m tall) of different species were selected. Stomatal type, density (S D), size (S S) and stomatal distribution on the leaf surface were determined using nail polish imprints taken from both leaf surfaces. Irrespective of tree species, stomata were located only on the abaxial surface (hypostomaty), with large variation in both S D and S S among species. S D ranged from 110 mm-2 in Neea altissima to 846 mm-2 in Qualea acuminata. However, in most species S D ranges between 271 and 543 mm-2, with a negative relationship between S D and S S. We also found a positive relationship between S D and tree height (r² = 0.14, p < 0.01), but no correlation was found between S D and leaf thickness. The most common stomatal type was anomocytic (37%), followed by paracytic (26%) and anisocytic (11%). We conclude that in Amazonian tree species, stomatal distribution on the leaf surface is a response most likely dependent on the genetic background of every species, rather than a reaction to environmental changes, and that somehow S D is influenced by environmental factors dependent on tree height.

“Learning-by-producing” in the fashion value chain

Proceedings da AUTEX 2015, Bucareste, Roménia.

Density-dependent morphological plasticity and trade-offs among vegetative traits in Eichhornia crassipes (Pontederiaceae)

Density-dependent responses are an important component of the organism life-history, and the resource allocation theory is a central concept to the life-history theory. When resource allocation varies due to environmental changes, a plant may change its morphology or physiology to cope with the new conditions, a process known as phenotypic plasticity. Our study aimed to evaluate how plant density affects Eichhornia crassipes allocation patterns. A total of 214 individuals in high and low density were collected. The density effect was observed in all plant traits examined including biomass accumulation. All traits of E. crassipes demonstrated higher values in high density conditions, except for biomass of leaves. Density exhibited a high influence on vegetative traits of E. crassipes, but did not influence allocation pattern, since a trade-off among the vegetative traits was not found. The morphological plasticity and the absence of trade-offs were discussed as strategies to overcome neighbor plants in competition situations. In high density conditions, there were clear changes in the morphology of the plants which probably allows for their survival in a highly competitive environment.

Litterfall production in intact and selectively logged forests in southern of Amazonia as a function of basal area of vegetation and plant density

Nutrient recycling in the forest is linked to the production and decomposition of litter, which are essential processes for forest maintenance, especially in regions of nutritionally poor soils. Human interventions in forest such as selecttive logging may have strong impacts on these processes. The objectives of this study were to estimate litterfall production and evaluate the influence of environmental factors (basal area of vegetation, plant density, canopy cover, and soil physicochemical properties) and anthropogenic factors (post-management age and exploited basal area) on this production, in areas of intact and exploited forest in southern Amazonia, located in the northern parts of Mato Grosso state. This study was conducted at five locations and the average annual production of litterfall was 10.6 Mg ha-1 year-1, higher than the values for the Amazon rainforest. There were differences in litterfall productions between study locations. Effects of historical logging intensity on litterfall production were not significant. Effects of basal area of vegetation and tree density on litterfall production were observed, highlighting the importance of local vegetation characteristics in litterfall production. This study demonstrated areas of transition between the Amazonia-Cerrado tend to have a higher litterfall production than Cerrado and Amazonia regions, and this information is important for a better understanding of the dynamics of nutrient and carbon cycling in these transition regions.

Goblet cell density association with tear function and ocular surface physiology

Purpose: To determine the relationship of goblet cell density (GCD) with tear function and ocular surface physiology. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study conducted in 35 asymptomatic subjects with mean age 23.8±3.6 years. Tear film assessment, conjunctiva and cornea examination were done in each subject. Conjunctival impression cytology was performed by applying Nitrocellulose Millipore MFTM-Membrane filter over the superior bulbar conjunctiva. The filter paper was than fixed with 96% ethanol and stained with Periodic Acid Schiff, Hematoxylin and Eosin. GCD was determined by optical microscopy. Relation between GCD and Schirmer score, tear break-up time (TBUT), bulbar redness, limbal redness and corneal staining was determined. Results: The mean GCD was 151±122 cells/mm2. GCD was found higher in eyes with higher Schirmer score but it was not significant (p = 0.75). There was a significant relationship ofGCDwith TBUT (p = 0.042). GCD was not correlated with bulbar redness (p = 0.126), and limbal redness (p = 0.054) as well as corneal staining (p = 0.079). No relationship of GCD with age and gender of the subjects (p > 0.05) was observed. Conclusion: GCD was found correlated with TBUT but no significant correlation was found with the aqueous portion of the tear, limbal as well as bulbar redness and corneal staining.

Vanishing spin stiffness in the spin-1/2 Heisenberg chain for any nonzero temperature

Whether at the zero spin density m = 0 and finite temperatures T > 0 the spin stiffness of the spin-1/2 XXX chain is finite or vanishes remains an unsolved and controversial issue, as different approaches yield contradictory results. Here we explicitly compute the stiffness at m = 0 and find strong evidence that it vanishes. In particular, we derive an upper bound on the stiffness within a canonical ensemble at any fixed value of spin density m that is proportional to m2L in the thermodynamic limit of chain length L → ∞, for any finite, nonzero temperature, which implies the absence of ballistic transport for T > 0 for m = 0. Although our method relies in part on the thermodynamic Bethe ansatz (TBA), it does not evaluate the stiffness through the second derivative of the TBA energy eigenvalues relative to a uniform vector potential. Moreover, we provide strong evidence that in the thermodynamic limit the upper bounds on the spin current and stiffness used in our derivation remain valid under string deviations. Our results also provide strong evidence that in the thermodynamic limit the TBA method used by X. Zotos [Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 1764 (1999)] leads to the exact stiffness values at finite temperature T > 0 for models whose stiffness is finite at T = 0, similar to the spin stiffness of the spin-1/2 Heisenberg chain but unlike the charge stiffness of the half-filled 1D Hubbard model.

Effect of argon ion energy on the performance of silicon nitridemultilayer permeation barriers grown by hot-wire CVD on polymers

One of the authors (S.M.) acknowledges Direction des Relations Extérieures of Ecole Polytechnique for financial support.

Nutritional value, bioactive compounds and antioxidant properties of three edible mushrooms from Poland

Mushrooms contain a multitude of biomolecules with nutritional and/or biological activity. Among the bioactive molecules, phenolic compounds and tocopherols are the most responsible for their antioxidant activity. In the present work, Boletus edulis, Lentinus edodes and Xerocomus badius, three edible mushroom species originated from Poland, were analyzed for their chemical composition and antioxidant activity. Carbohydrates were the most abundant macronutrients, followed by proteins and ash. Fructose, mannitol and trehalose were the prevalent sugars, but glucose was only found in B. edulis. Polyunsaturated fatty acids predominated over mono and saturated fatty acids. Palmitic, oleic and linoleic acids were abundant in the three samples. α- and β- Tocopherols were quantified in all the samples, but γ-tocopherol was only identified in X. badius. Oxalic and fumaric acids were quantified in the three samples; quinic acid was only present in L. edodes, and malic and citric acids were only found in X. badius. p-Hydroxybenzoic, protocatechuic and cinnamic acids were quantified in all the species, while p-coumaric acid was only found in B. edulis. This species and X. badius revealed the highest antioxidant properties, being B. edulis more effective in radicals scavenging activity and reducing power, and X. badius in lipid peroxidation inhibition, which is related with the highest amounts in phenolic compounds and tocopherols, respectively.