Assessing the Relationship between the Baseline Value of a Continuous Variable and Subsequent Change over Time

Analyzing the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change of a continuous variable is a frequent matter of inquiry in cohort studies. These analyses are surprisingly complex, particularly if only two waves of data are available. It is unclear for non-biostatisticians where the complexity of this analysis lies and which statistical method is adequate.With the help of simulated longitudinal data of body mass index in children,we review statistical methods for the analysis of the association between the baseline value and subsequent change, assuming linear growth with time. Key issues in such analyses are mathematical coupling, measurement error, variability of change between individuals, and regression to the mean. Ideally, it is better to rely on multiple repeated measurements at different times and a linear random effects model is a standard approach if more than two waves of data are available. If only two waves of data are available, our simulations show that Blomqvist's method - which consists in adjusting for measurement error variance the estimated regression coefficient of observed change on baseline value - provides accurate estimates. The adequacy of the methods to assess the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change depends on the number of data waves, the availability of information on measurement error, and the variability of change between individuals.

Early white matter alterations in men predisposed to FXTAS revealed by MT imaging.

Introduction: The Fragile X - associated Tremor Ataxia Syndrome (FXTAS) is a recently described, and under-diagnosed, late onset (≈ 60y) neurodegenerative disorder affecting male carriers of a premutation in the Fragile X Mental Retardation 1 (FMR1) gene. The premutation is an CGG (Cytosine-Guanine-Guanine) expansion (55 to 200 CGG repeats) in the proximal region of the FMR1 gene. Patients with FXTAS primarily present with cerebellar ataxia and intention tremor. Neuroradiological features of FXTAS include prominent white matter disease in the periventricular, subcortical, middle cerebellar peduncles and deep white matter of the cerebellum on T2-weighted or FLAIR MR imaging (Jacquemmont 2007, Loesch 2007, Brunberg 2002, Cohen 2006). We hypothesize that a significant white matter alteration is present in younger individuals many years prior to clinical symptoms and/or the presence of visible lesions on conventional MR sequences and might be detectable by magnetization transfer (MT) imaging. Methods: Eleven asymptomatic premutation carriers (mean age = 55 years) and seven intra-familial controls participated to the study. A standardized neurological examination was performed on all participants and a neuropsychological evaluation was carried out before MR scanning performed on a 3T Siemens Trio. The protocol included a sagittal T1-weighted 3D gradient-echo sequence (MPRAGE, 160 slices, 1 mm^3 isotropic voxels) and a gradient-echo MTI (FA 30, TE 15, matrix size 256*256, pixel size 1*1 mm, 36 slices (thickness 2mm), MT pulse duration 7.68 ms, FA 500, frequency offset 1.5 kHz). MTI was performed by acquiring consecutively two set of images; first with and then without the MT saturation pulse. MT images were coregistered to the T1 acquisition. The MTR for every intracranial voxel was calculated as follows: MTR = (M0 - MS)/M0*100%, creating a MTR map for each subject. As first analysis, the whole white matter (WM) was used to mask the MTR image in order to create an histogram of the MTR distribution in the whole tissue class over the two groups examined. Then, for each subject, we performed a segmentation and parcellation of the brain by means of Freesurfer software, starting from the high resolution T1-weighted anatomical acquisition. Cortical parcellations was used to assign a label to the underlying white matter by the construction of a Voronoi diagram in the WM voxels of the MR volume based on distance to the nearest cortical parcellation label. This procedure allowed us to subdivide the cerebral WM in 78 ROIs according to the cortical parcellation (see example in Fig 1). The cerebellum, by the same procedure, was subdivided in 5 ROIs (2 per each hemisphere and one corresponding to the brainstem). For each subject, we calculated the mean value of MTR within each ROI and averaged over controls and patients. Significant differences between the two groups were tested using a two sample T-test (p<0.01). Results: Neurological examination showed that no patient met the clinical criteria of Fragile X Tremor and Ataxia Syndrome yet. Nonetheless, premutation carriers showed some subtle neurological signs of the disorder. In fact, premutation carriers showed a significant increase of tremor (CRST, T-test p=0.007) and increase of ataxia (ICARS, p=0.004) when compared to controls. The neuropsychological evaluation was normal in both groups. To obtain general characterizations of myelination for each subject and premutation carriers, we first computed the distribution of MTR values across the total white matter volume and averaged for each group. We tested the equality of the two distributions with the non parametric Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and we rejected the null-hypothesis at a p=0.03 (fig. 2). As expected, when comparing the asymptomatic permutation carriers with control subjects, the peak value and peak position of the MTR values within the whole WM were decreased and the width of the distribution curve was increased (p<0.01). These three changes point to an alteration of the global myelin status of the premutation carriers. Subsequently, to analyze the regional myelination and white matter integrity of the same group, we performed a ROI analysis of MTR data. The ROI-based analysis showed a decrease of mean MTR value in premutation carriers compared to controls in bilateral orbito-frontal and inferior frontal WM, entorhinal and cingulum regions and cerebellum (Fig 3). The detection of these differences in these regions failed with other conventional MR techniques. Conclusions: These preliminary data confirm that in premutation carriers, there are indeed alterations in "normal appearing white matter" (NAWM) and these alterations are visible with the MT technique. These results indicate that MT imaging may be a relevant approach to detect both global and local alterations within NAWM in "asymptomatic" carriers of premutations in the Fragile X Mental Retardation 1 (FMR1) gene. The sensitivity of MT in the detection of these alterations might point towards a specific physiopathological mechanism linked to an underlying myelin disorder. ROI-based analyses show that the frontal, parahippocampal and cerebellar regions are already significantly affected before the onset of symptoms. A larger sample will allow us to determine the minimum CGG expansion and age associated with these subclinical white matter alterations.

Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

Extent of hypoattenuation on CT angiography source images in basilar artery occlusion: prognostic value in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The posterior circulation Acute Stroke Prognosis Early CT Score (pc-ASPECTS) quantifies the extent of early ischemic changes in the posterior circulation with a 10-point grading system. We hypothesized that pc-ASPECTS applied to CT angiography source images predicts functional outcome of patients in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS). METHODS: BASICS was a prospective, observational registry of consecutive patients with acute symptomatic basilar artery occlusion. Functional outcome was assessed at 1 month. We applied pc-ASPECTS to CT angiography source images of patients with CT angiography for confirmation of basilar artery occlusion. We calculated unadjusted and adjusted risk ratios (RRs) of pc-ASPECTS dichotomized at ≥8 versus <8. Primary outcome measure was favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale scores 0-3). Secondary outcome measures were mortality and functional independence (modified Rankin Scale scores 0-2). RESULTS: Of 158 patients included, 78 patients had a CT angiography source images pc-ASPECTS≥8. Patients with a pc-ASPECTS≥8 more often had a favorable outcome than patients with a pc-ASPECTS<8 (crude RR, 1.7; 95% CI, 0.98-3.0). After adjustment for age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, and thrombolysis, pc-ASPECTS≥8 was not related to favorable outcome (RR, 1.3; 95% CI, 0.8-2.2), but it was related to reduced mortality (RR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5-0.98) and functional independence (RR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.8). In post hoc analysis, pc-ASPECTS dichotomized at ≥6 versus <6 predicted a favorable outcome (adjusted RR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.2-7.5). CONCLUSIONS: pc-ASPECTS on CT angiography source images independently predicted death and functional independence at 1 month in the CT angiography subgroup of patients in the BASICS registry.

What do older people with high support needs want and value from life? Involving older people in shaping 'A Better Life'

JRF has recently embarked on a major new programme: 'A Better Life', the central question of which is: 'How can we ensure a better life and better choices for older people who need high levels of support?' JRF now want to commission a project to work with older people with high support needs (current and future generations) and with JRF to ensure that older people with high support needs are at the heart throughout this programme.The deadline for receipt of full proposals is 12 noon on Tuesday 24 November 2009 for decision by 18 December.

The Value of Knowing: Public Perceptions about Alzheimers and testing

����This survey commissioned by Alzheimer Europe��examined public perception and awareness of Alzheimer’s disease and aimed to identify the views of the general public on the value of diagnosis. The survey of 2,678 people was designed and analysed by the Harvard School of Public Health and Alzheimer Europe. Fieldwork was conducted via telephone (landline and cell phone) with nationally representative random samples of adults age 18 and older in five countries by TNS, an independent research company based in London. Countries surveyed were the USA, Germany, France, Spain and Poland. The survey was supported by a grant to Alzheimer Europe from Bayer AG. Bayer was not involved in the design of the survey or the analysis of the findings.��Full details of the survey results are available on the AE website at: http://www.alzheimer-europe.org/EN/Research��Alzheimer Europe is the umbrella organisation of national Alzheimer associations and currently has 31 member organisations in 27 European countries. The mission statement of the organisation is to change perceptions, practice and policy to ensure equal access of people with dementia to a high level of care services and treatment options.����

Value of morphotyping for the characterization of Candida albicans clinical isolates

Until recently, morphotyping, a method evaluating fringe and surface characteristics of streak colonies grown on malt agar, has been recommended as a simple and unexpensive typing method for Candida albicans isolates. The discriminatory power and reproducibility of Hunter's modified scheme of Phongpaichit's morphotyping has been evaluated on 28 C. albicans isolates recovered from the oral cavity of asymptomatic human immunodeficiency virus-positive subjects, and compared to two molecular typing methods: randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) fingerprinting, and contour clamped homogeneous electric field (CHEF) electrophoretic karyotyping. Morphological features of streak colonies allowed to distinguish 11 different morphotypes while RAPD fingerprinting yielded 25 different patterns and CHEF electrophoresis recognized 9 karyotypes. The discriminatory power calculated with the formula of Hunter and Gaston was 0.780 for morphotyping, 0.984 for RAPD fingerprinting, and 0.630 for karyotyping. Reproducibility was tested using 43 serial isolates from 15 subjects (2 to 6 isolates per subject) and by repeating the test after one year storage of the isolates. While genetic methods generally recognized a single type for all serial isolates from each of the subjects studied, morphotyping detected strain variations in five subjects in the absence of genetic confirmation. Poor reproducibility was demonstrated repeating morphotyping after one year storage of the isolates since differences in at least one character were detected in 92.9% of the strains.

Beyond sepsis pathophysiology with cytokines: what is their value as biomarkers for disease severity?

Sepsis is a major challenge in medicine. It is a common and frequently fatal infectious condition. The incidence continues to increase, with unacceptably high mortality rates, despite the use of specific antibiotics, aggressive operative intervention, nutritional support, and anti-inflammatory therapies. Typically, septic patients exhibit a high degree of heterogeneity due to variables such as age, weight, gender, the presence of secondary disease, the state of the immune system, and the severity of the infection. We are at urgent need for biomarkers and reliable measurements that can be applied to risk stratification of septic patients and that would easily identify those patients at the highest risk of a poor outcome. Such markers would be of fundamental importance to decision making for early intervention therapy or for the design of septic clinical trials. In the present work, we will review current biomarkers for sepsis severity and especially the use of cytokines as biomarkers with important pathophysiological role.

Fracture vertébrate évaluée par ostéodensitométrie. Un nouveau facteur de risque pour la fracture [Vertebral fracture assessed by DXA: a new risk factor for fracture]

At the age of 50, a woman has a lifetime risk of more than 40% to present a vertebral fracture. More than 60% of vertebral fractures remain undiagnosed. As a consequence it is of major importance to develop screening strategies to detect these fractures. Vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) by DXA allows one to detect vertebral fracture from T4 to L4 using DXA devices, while performing also during the same visit the bone mineral density measurement. Such an approach should improve the evaluation of fracture risk and therapeutic indication. Compared to the standard X-ray assessment, VFA highly enables to detect moderate or severe vertebral fractures below T6.

Valeur ajoutée de la supervision du médecin-assistant par un médecin de famille dans une permanence [Added value of family practitioners' supervision of junior doctors in a walk-in clinic].

The pending workforce crisis in family medicine has triggered various initiatives. This article describes the PMU-FLON walk-in clinic, a project of the Institute of General Medicine University of Lausanne. The working conditions in this clinic are close to that of a family practice. Doctors in training are supervised by family doctors who work part-time in the clinic. The objective is to improve training in the various fields of family medicine, from technical skills (improving optimal use of diagnostic tools), to integrating patients' requests in a more global patient-centered approach. This new educational model allows doctors in training to benefit from the specific approaches of different trainers. It will contribute to promoting quality family medicine in the future.

Diagnostic value of soluble CD14 subtype (sCD14-ST) presepsin for the postmortem diagnosis of sepsis-related fatalities.

The first aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic performance of presepsin (sCD14-ST) in postmortem serum from femoral blood compared to procalcitonin (PCT) to detect sepsis-related fatalities. The second aim was to compare sCD14-ST levels found in postmortem serum to the values in pericardial fluid to investigate the usefulness of the latter as an alternative biological fluid. Two study groups were formed, a sepsis-related fatalities group and a control group. Radiology (unenhanced CT scans and postmortem angiographies), autopsies, histology, neuropathology, and toxicology as well as other postmortem biochemistry investigations were performed in all cases. Microbiological investigations on right cardiac blood were carried out exclusively in septic cases. The results of this study indicated that postmortem serum PCT and sCD14-ST levels, individually considered, allowed septic cases to be identified. Even though increases in both PCT and sCD14-ST concentrations were observed in the control cases, coherent PCT and sCD14-ST results in cases with suspected sepsis allowed the diagnosis to be confirmed. Conversely, no relevant correlation was identified between postmortem serum and pericardial fluid sCD14-ST levels in either the septic or control groups.

Success of referral for alcohol dependent patients from a general hospital: predictive value of patient and process characteristics.

To assess the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary evaluation and referral process in a prospective cohort of general hospital patients with alcohol dependence. Alcohol-dependent patients were identified in the wards of the general hospital and its primary care center. They were evaluated and then referred to treatment by a multidisciplinary team; those patients who accepted to participate in this cohort study were consecutively included and followed for 6 months. Not included patients were lost for follow-up, whereas all included patients were assessed at time of inclusion, 2 and 6 months later by a research psychologist in order to collect standardized baseline patients' characteristics, process salient features and patients outcomes (defined as treatment adherence and abstinence). Multidisciplinary evaluation and therapeutic referral was feasible and effective, with a success rate of 43%for treatment adherence and 28%for abstinence at 6 months. Among patients' characteristics, predictors of success were an age over 45, not living alone, being employed and being motivated to treatment (RAATE-A score &lt; 18), whereas successful process characteristics included detoxification of the patient at time of referral and a full multidisciplinary referral meeting. This multidisciplinary model of evaluation and referral of alcohol dependent patients of a general hospital had a satisfactory level of effectiveness. Predictors of success and failure allow to identify subsets of patients for whom new strategies of motivation and treatment referral should be designed.

Potential value of biliary CEA assay in early detection of colorectal adenocarcinoma liver metastases.

Elevation of the biliary CEA level in patients with liver metastases from colorectal carcinoma has been reported. The aim of this study is to determine the potential value of biliary CEA assay in the early detection of liver metastases. Biliary and serum CEA levels were determined in patients operated on for a colorectal cancer and in control groups. Among 13 patients with liver metastases from colorectal carcinomas, biliary CEA levels were markedly elevated (> 40 ng/ml) in nine, moderately elevated (5-40 ng/ml) in two and normal (arbitrarily defined as < 5 ng/ml) in two. Of 28 patients with primary colorectal carcinoma without detectable hepatic secondaries, three had marked CEA elevation in the bile, 10 had moderate CEA elevation and 15 had normal levels. Among nine patients with non-malignant hepatobiliary pathology, there was one marked biliary CEA elevation, one moderate elevation and seven normal levels. None of the 13 individuals with no identified hepatobiliary pathology had elevated biliary CEA levels. The follow-up of patients with a primary colorectal tumour, no evidence of hepatic secondaries and a biliary CEA elevation is of particular interest. If subsequent appearance of liver metastases is found in such cases, intra-operative biliary CEA assay could be considered a valuable diagnostic test. Further studies will then have to prove the possible benefit of a specific treatment for this group of patients.