Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

Document clustering with K-tree

This paper describes the approach taken to the XML Mining track at INEX 2008 by a group at the Queensland University of Technology. We introduce the K-tree clustering algorithm in an Information Retrieval context by adapting it for document clustering. Many large scale problems exist in document clustering. K-tree scales well with large inputs due to its low complexity. It offers promising results both in terms of efficiency and quality. Document classification was completed using Support Vector Machines.

Prognosis of bearing failure based on health state estimation

This paper proposes a new prognosis model based on the technique for health state estimation of machines for accurate assessment of the remnant life. For the evaluation of health stages of machines, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier was employed to obtain the probability of each health state. Two case studies involving bearing failures were used to validate the proposed model. Simulated bearing failure data and experimental data from an accelerated bearing test rig were used to train and test the model. The result obtained is very encouraging and shows that the proposed prognostic model produces promising results and has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction.

Information–movement coupling in developing cricketers under changing ecological practice constraints

Changing informational constraints of practice, such as when using ball projection machines, has been shown to significantly affect movement coordination of skilled cricketers. To date, there has been no similar research on movement responses of developing batters, an important issue since ball projection machines are used heavily in cricket development programmes. Timing and coordination of young cricketers (n = 12, age = 15.6 ± 0.7 years) were analyzed during the forward defensive and forward drive strokes when facing a bowling machine and bowler (both with a delivery velocity of 28.14 ± 0.56 m s−1). Significant group performance differences were observed between the practice task constraints, with earlier initiation of the backswing, front foot movement, downswing, and front foot placement when facing the bowler compared to the bowling machine. Peak height of the backswing was higher when facing the bowler, along with a significantly larger step length. Altering the informational constraints of practice caused major changes to the information–movement couplings of developing cricketers. Data from this study were interpreted to emanate from differences in available specifying variables under the distinct practice task constraints. Considered with previous findings, results confirmed the need to ensure representative batting task constraints in practice, cautioning against an over-reliance on ball projection machines in cricket development programmes.

Promoting creativity in education : from policy to practice : an Australian perspective

In the 21st century, our global community is changing to increasingly value creativity and innovation as driving forces in our lives. This paper will investigate how educators need to move beyond the rhetoric to effective practices for teaching and fostering creativity. First, it will describe the nature of creativity at different levels, with a focus on personal and everyday creativity. It will then provide a brief snapshot of creativity in education through the lens of new policies and initiatives in Queensland, Australia. Next it will review two significant areas related to enriching and enhancing students’ creative engagement and production: 1) influential social and environmental factors; and 2) creative self-efficacy. Finally, this paper will propose that to effectively promote student creativity in schools, we need to not only emphasise policy, but also focus on establishing a shared discourse about the nature of creativity, and researching and implementing effective practices for supporting and fostering creativity. This paper has implications for educational policy, practice and teacher training that are applicable internationally.

Integrated Diagnosis and Prognosis Model for High Pressure LNG Pump

In condition-based maintenance (CBM), effective diagnostics and prognostics are essential tools for maintenance engineers to identify imminent fault and to predict the remaining useful life before the components finally fail. This enables remedial actions to be taken in advance and reschedules production if necessary. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on historical failure knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. The technique uses the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier for both fault diagnosis and evaluation of health stages of machine degradation. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, the five different level data of typical four faults from High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were used for multi-class fault diagnosis. In addition, two sets of impeller-rub data were analysed and employed to predict the remnant life of pump based on estimation of health state. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

Members abroad - Australia : Lindy Osborne

When I arrived in Queensland's capital in 1996, Brisbane was commonly referred to as an 'overgrown country town'. This might have been an acceptable description in the 1990s, but it cannot be applied any longer. Brisbane, affectionaly referred to by the locals as Bris-Vegas, has now come of age. Following Sydney and Melbourne, Brisbane is the third most populous city in Australia with a population of approximately two million. Interestingly, the 2006 Census showed that 22 per cent of Brisbane's population was born overseas, the three main countries of birth being the UK, New Zealand and South Africa. Brisbane City is centred on its most dominant environmental element, the Brisbane River, which effectively carves Brisbane into two areas - the Northside and the Southside. The 2001 addition of Cox Rayner's Goodwill Pedestrian and Cycle Bridge signified Brisbane's acceptance and affectionate embrace of its River resulting in a long overdue linage between Brisbane's North and South. It connects the City's key precincts - the Northside CBD through Queensland University of Technology (QUT), across Brisbane River, to the recreational precinct of the Southside Southbank Parklands. The Southside cultural precinct of Southbank is the home to Queensland's Art Gallery, Performing Arts Complex, State Library and Museum -each of which were designed by Brisbane Stalwart Architect Robin Gibson, in the 1970s and '80s. The CBD component of the Brisbane River is flanked by a number of Institutional Facilities, including the campuses of QUT, Griffith University and the Southbank Education and Training Precinct (SETP), which combine to form a cross-river educational precinct. The past decade has born witness to a city which has keenly supported emerging architects in addition to the more entrenched stalwarts of the profession, resulting in a youthful, relaxed and unpretentious sub-tropical city. Viva Bris-Vegas!

Synthesis of orchestrators from service choreographies

With service interaction modelling, it is customary to distinguish between two types of models: choreographies and orchestrations. A choreography describes interactions within a collection of services from a global perspective, where no service plays a privileged role. Instead, services interact in a peer-to-peer manner. In contrast, an orchestration describes the interactions between one particular service, the orchestrator, and a number of partner services. The main proposition of this work is an approach to bridge these two modelling viewpoints by synthesising orchestrators from choreographies. To start with, choreographies are defined using a simple behaviour description language based on communicating finite state machines. From such a model, orchestrators are initially synthesised in the form of state machines. It turns out that state machines are not suitable for orchestration modelling, because orchestrators generally need to engage in concurrent interactions. To address this issue, a technique is proposed to transform state machines into process models in the Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN). Orchestrations represented in BPMN can then be augmented with additional business logic to achieve value-adding mediation. In addition, techniques exist for refining BPMN models into executable process definitions. The transformation from state machines to BPMN relies on Petri nets as an intermediary representation and leverages techniques from theory of regions to identify concurrency in the initial Petri net. Once concurrency has been identified, the resulting Petri net is transformed into a BPMN model. The original contributions of this work are: an algorithm to synthesise orchestrators from choreographies and a rules-based transformation from Petri nets into BPMN.

Rough set-based reasoning and pattern mining for information filtering

An information filtering (IF) system monitors an incoming document stream to find the documents that match the information needs specified by the user profiles. To learn to use the user profiles effectively is one of the most challenging tasks when developing an IF system. With the document selection criteria better defined based on the users’ needs, filtering large streams of information can be more efficient and effective. To learn the user profiles, term-based approaches have been widely used in the IF community because of their simplicity and directness. Term-based approaches are relatively well established. However, these approaches have problems when dealing with polysemy and synonymy, which often lead to an information overload problem. Recently, pattern-based approaches (or Pattern Taxonomy Models (PTM) [160]) have been proposed for IF by the data mining community. These approaches are better at capturing sematic information and have shown encouraging results for improving the effectiveness of the IF system. On the other hand, pattern discovery from large data streams is not computationally efficient. Also, these approaches had to deal with low frequency pattern issues. The measures used by the data mining technique (for example, “support” and “confidences”) to learn the profile have turned out to be not suitable for filtering. They can lead to a mismatch problem. This thesis uses the rough set-based reasoning (term-based) and pattern mining approach as a unified framework for information filtering to overcome the aforementioned problems. This system consists of two stages - topic filtering and pattern mining stages. The topic filtering stage is intended to minimize information overloading by filtering out the most likely irrelevant information based on the user profiles. A novel user-profiles learning method and a theoretical model of the threshold setting have been developed by using rough set decision theory. The second stage (pattern mining) aims at solving the problem of the information mismatch. This stage is precision-oriented. A new document-ranking function has been derived by exploiting the patterns in the pattern taxonomy. The most likely relevant documents were assigned higher scores by the ranking function. Because there is a relatively small amount of documents left after the first stage, the computational cost is markedly reduced; at the same time, pattern discoveries yield more accurate results. The overall performance of the system was improved significantly. The new two-stage information filtering model has been evaluated by extensive experiments. Tests were based on the well-known IR bench-marking processes, using the latest version of the Reuters dataset, namely, the Reuters Corpus Volume 1 (RCV1). The performance of the new two-stage model was compared with both the term-based and data mining-based IF models. The results demonstrate that the proposed information filtering system outperforms significantly the other IF systems, such as the traditional Rocchio IF model, the state-of-the-art term-based models, including the BM25, Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Pattern Taxonomy Model (PTM).

Improved GMM-based speaker verification using SVM-driven impostor dataset selection

The problem of impostor dataset selection for GMM-based speaker verification is addressed through the recently proposed data-driven background dataset refinement technique. The SVM-based refinement technique selects from a candidate impostor dataset those examples that are most frequently selected as support vectors when training a set of SVMs on a development corpus. This study demonstrates the versatility of dataset refinement in the task of selecting suitable impostor datasets for use in GMM-based speaker verification. The use of refined Z- and T-norm datasets provided performance gains of 15% in EER in the NIST 2006 SRE over the use of heuristically selected datasets. The refined datasets were shown to generalise well to the unseen data of the NIST 2008 SRE.

Data-driven impostor selection for T-norm score normalisation and the background dataset in SVM-based speaker verification

A data-driven background dataset refinement technique was recently proposed for SVM based speaker verification. This method selects a refined SVM background dataset from a set of candidate impostor examples after individually ranking examples by their relevance. This paper extends this technique to the refinement of the T-norm dataset for SVM-based speaker verification. The independent refinement of the background and T-norm datasets provides a means of investigating the sensitivity of SVM-based speaker verification performance to the selection of each of these datasets. Using refined datasets provided improvements of 13% in min. DCF and 9% in EER over the full set of impostor examples on the 2006 SRE corpus with the majority of these gains due to refinement of the T-norm dataset. Similar trends were observed for the unseen data of the NIST 2008 SRE.

Scatter difference NAP for SVM speaker recognition

This paper presents Scatter Difference Nuisance Attribute Projection (SD-NAP) as an enhancement to NAP for SVM-based speaker verification. While standard NAP may inadvertently remove desirable speaker variability, SD-NAP explicitly de-emphasises this variability by incorporating a weighted version of the between-class scatter into the NAP optimisation criterion. Experimental evaluation of SD-NAP with a variety of SVM systems on the 2006 and 2008 NIST SRE corpora demonstrate that SD-NAP provides improved verification performance over standard NAP in most cases, particularly at the EER operating point.

Practice briefing : Is BOT the best financing model to procure infrastructure projects? A case study of the Hong Kong-Shuhai-Macau Bridge

Abstract: Purpose – Several major infrastructure projects in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) have been delivered by the build-operate-transfer (BOT) model since the 1960s. Although the benefits of using BOT have been reported abundantly in the contemporary literature, some BOT projects were less successful than the others. This paper aims to find out why this is so and to explore whether BOT is the best financing model to procure major infrastructure projects. Design/methodology/approach – The benefits of BOT will first be reviewed. Some completed BOT projects in Hong Kong will be examined to ascertain how far the perceived benefits of BOT have been materialized in these projects. A highly profiled project, the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, which has long been promoted by the governments of the People's Republic of China, Macau Special Administrative Region and the HKSAR that BOT is the preferred financing model, but suddenly reverted back to the traditional financing model to be funded primarily by the three governments with public money instead, will be studied to explore the true value of the BOT financial model. Findings – Six main reasons for this radical change are derived from the analysis: shorter take-off time for the project; difference in legal systems causing difficulties in drafting BOT agreements; more government control on tolls; private sector uninterested due to unattractive economic package; avoid allegation of collusion between business and the governments; and a comfortable financial reserve possessed by the host governments. Originality/value – The findings from this paper are believed to provide a better understanding to the real benefits of BOT and the governments' main decision criteria in delivering major infrastructure projects.

Scheduling trains as a blocking parallel-machine job shop scheduling problem

In this paper, the train scheduling problem is modelled as a blocking parallel-machine job shop scheduling (BPMJSS) problem. In the model, trains, single-track sections and multiple-track sections, respectively, are synonymous with jobs, single machines and parallel machines, and an operation is regarded as the movement/traversal of a train across a section. Due to the lack of buffer space, the real-life case should consider blocking or hold-while-wait constraints, which means that a track section cannot release and must hold the train until next section on the routing becomes available. Based on literature review and our analysis, it is very hard to find a feasible complete schedule directly for BPMJSS problems. Firstly, a parallel-machine job-shop-scheduling (PMJSS) problem is solved by an improved shifting bottleneck procedure (SBP) algorithm without considering blocking conditions. Inspired by the proposed SBP algorithm, feasibility satisfaction procedure (FSP) algorithm is developed to solve and analyse the BPMJSS problem, by an alternative graph model that is an extension of the classical disjunctive graph models. The proposed algorithms have been implemented and validated using real-world data from Queensland Rail. Sensitivity analysis has been applied by considering train length, upgrading track sections, increasing train speed and changing bottleneck sections. The outcomes show that the proposed methodology would be a very useful tool for the real-life train scheduling problems

An experiment in mixed compilation/interpretation

One of the classic forms of intermediate representation used for communication between compiler front-ends and back-ends are those based on abstract stack machines. It is possible to compile the stack machine instructions into machine code by means of an interpretive code generator, or to simulate the stack machine at runtime using an interpreter. This paper describes an approach intermediate between these two extremes. The front-end for a commercial Modula 2 compiler was ported to the "industry standard PC", and a partially compiling back-end written. The object code runs with the assistance of an interpreter, but may be linked with libraries which are fully compiled. The intent was to provide a programming environment on the PC which is identical to that of the same compilers on 32-bit UNIX machines. This objective has been met, and the compiler is available to educational institutions as free-ware. The design basis of the new compiler is described, and the performance critically evaluated.