Business models in the Smart Grid: challenges, opportunities and proposals for prosumer profitability.

Considering that non-renewable energy resources are dwindling, the smart grid turns out to be one of the most promising and compelling systems for the future of energy. Not only does it combine efficient energy consumption with avant-garde technologies related to renewable energies, but it is also capable of providing several beneficial utilities, such as power monitoring and data provision. When smart grid end users turn into prosumers, they become arguably the most important value creators within the smart grid and a decisive agent of change in terms of electricity usage. There is a plethora of research and development areas related to the smart grid that can be exploited for new business opportunities, thus spawning another branch of the so-called ?green economy? focused on turning smart energy usage into a profitable business. This paper deals with emerging business models for smart grid prosumers, their strengths and weaknesses and puts forward new prosumer-oriented business models, along with their value propositions.

Region-based moving object detection using spatially conditioned nonparametric models in a GPU

A novel GPU-based nonparametric moving object detection strategy for computer vision tools requiring real-time processing is proposed. An alternative and efficient Bayesian classifier to combine nonparametric background and foreground models allows increasing correct detections while avoiding false detections. Additionally, an efficient region of interest analysis significantly reduces the computational cost of the detections.

Autonomous classification models in ubiquitous environments

Stream-mining approach is defined as a set of cutting-edge techniques designed to process streams of data in real time, in order to extract knowledge. In the particular case of classification, stream-mining has to adapt its behaviour to the volatile underlying data distributions, what has been called concept drift. Moreover, it is important to note that concept drift may lead to situations where predictive models become invalid and have therefore to be updated to represent the actual concepts that data poses. In this context, there is a specific type of concept drift, known as recurrent concept drift, where the concepts represented by data have already appeared in the past. In those cases the learning process could be saved or at least minimized by applying a previously trained model. This could be extremely useful in ubiquitous environments that are characterized by the existence of resource constrained devices. To deal with the aforementioned scenario, meta-models can be used in the process of enhancing the drift detection mechanisms used by data stream algorithms, by representing and predicting when the change will occur. There are some real-world situations where a concept reappears, as in the case of intrusion detection systems (IDS), where the same incidents or an adaptation of them usually reappear over time. In these environments the early prediction of drift by means of a better knowledge of past models can help to anticipate to the change, thus improving efficiency of the model regarding the training instances needed. By means of using meta-models as a recurrent drift detection mechanism, the ability to share concepts representations among different data mining processes is open. That kind of exchanges could improve the accuracy of the resultant local model as such model may benefit from patterns similar to the local concept that were observed in other scenarios, but not yet locally. This would also improve the efficiency of training instances used during the classification process, as long as the exchange of models would aid in the application of already trained recurrent models, that have been previously seen by any of the collaborative devices. Which it is to say that the scope of recurrence detection and representation is broaden. In fact the detection, representation and exchange of concept drift patterns would be extremely useful for the law enforcement activities fighting against cyber crime. Being the information exchange one of the main pillars of cooperation, national units would benefit from the experience and knowledge gained by third parties. Moreover, in the specific scope of critical infrastructures protection it is crucial to count with information exchange mechanisms, both from a strategical and technical scope. The exchange of concept drift detection schemes in cyber security environments would aid in the process of preventing, detecting and effectively responding to threads in cyber space. Furthermore, as a complement of meta-models, a mechanism to assess the similarity between classification models is also needed when dealing with recurrent concepts. In this context, when reusing a previously trained model a rough comparison between concepts is usually made, applying boolean logic. The introduction of fuzzy logic comparisons between models could lead to a better efficient reuse of previously seen concepts, by applying not just equal models, but also similar ones. This work faces the aforementioned open issues by means of: the MMPRec system, that integrates a meta-model mechanism and a fuzzy similarity function; a collaborative environment to share meta-models between different devices; a recurrent drift generator that allows to test the usefulness of recurrent drift systems, as it is the case of MMPRec. Moreover, this thesis presents an experimental validation of the proposed contributions using synthetic and real datasets.

Soundscape quality analysis by fuzzy logic: A field study in Cordoba, Argentina

This research studies urban soundscapes through the comparative analysis of twelve public open spaces in the city of Córdoba (Argentina), taken as case studies. The work aims to examine selection of indicators and assessment tools intended to characterize soundscape quality. The field study was carried out through surveys and acoustic and psychoacoustic indicators, that are used together to objectively describe the sound quality of urban spaces. The study shows that, while there is a relationship of these indicators with the sound quality of the spaces, this is not linear. Their relative importance or influence depends on the interrelations occurring between the parameters studied. A model analyzing and correlating the parameters with the sound quality, based on the postulates of fuzzy logic, was applied as a tool of analysis, and it was seen to achieve a very close approximation to the subjective or perceptual response of the inhabitants. This close match between the model results and the perceptual response of the users confirms the fuzzy model as an effective tool for the study, not only of soundscapes, but also for those situations in which objective parameters must be related to the perceptual response of users.

Graphoids and separoids in model theory

We treat graphoid and separoid structures within the mathematical framework of model theory, specially suited for representing and analysing axiomatic systems with multiple semantics. We represent the graphoid axiom set in model theory, and translate algebraic separoid structures to another axiom set over the same symbols as graphoids. This brings both structures to a common, sound theoretical ground where they can be fairly compared. Our contribution further serves as a bridge between the most recent developments in formal logic research, and the well-known graphoid applications in probabilistic graphical modelling.

A positivity result in the theory of Macdonald polynomials

We outline here a proof that a certain rational function Cn(q, t), which has come to be known as the “q, t-Catalan,” is in fact a polynomial with positive integer coefficients. This has been an open problem since 1994. Because Cn(q, t) evaluates to the Catalan number at t = q = 1, it has also been an open problem to find a pair of statistics a, b on the collection

Direct observation of iron-induced conformational changes of mitochondrial DNA by high-resolution field-emission in-lens scanning electron microscopy.

When respiring rat liver mitochondria are incubated in the presence of Fe(III) gluconate, their DNA (mtDNA) relaxes from the supercoiled to the open circular form dependent on the iron dose. Anaerobiosis or antioxidants fail to completely inhibit the unwinding. High-resolution field-emission in-lens scanning electron microscopy imaging, in concert with backscattered electron detection, pinpoints nanometer-range iron colloids bound to mtDNA isolated from iron-exposed mitochondria. High-resolution field-emission in-lens scanning electron microscopy with backscattered electron detection imaging permits simultaneous detailed visual analysis of DNA topology, iron dose-dependent mtDNA unwinding, and assessment of iron colloid formation on mtDNA strands.

Receptive field structure in the visual cortex: does selective stimulation induce plasticity?

Sensory areas of adult cerebral cortex can reorganize in response to long-term alterations in patterns of afferent signals. This long-term plasticity is thought to play a crucial role in recovery from injury and in some forms of learning. However, the degree to which sensory representations in primary cortical areas depend on short-term (i.e., minute to minute) stimulus variations remains unclear. A traditional view is that each neuron in the mature cortex has a fixed receptive field structure. An alternative view, with fundamentally different implications for understanding cortical function, is that each cell's receptive field is highly malleable, changing according to the recent history of the sensory environment. Consistent with the latter view, it has been reported that selective stimulation of regions surrounding the receptive field induces a dramatic short-term increase in receptive field size for neurons in the visual cortex [Pettet, M. W. & Gilbert, C. D. (1992) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 89, 8366-8370]. In contrast, we report here that there is no change in either the size or the internal structure of the receptive field following several minutes of surround stimulation. However, for some cells, overall responsiveness increases. These results suggest that dynamic alterations of receptive field structure do not underlie short-term plasticity in the mature primary visual cortex. However, some degree of short-term adaptability could be mediated by changes in responsiveness.

The evolution of mass tourism destinations: new approaches beyond deterministic models in Benidorm (Spain)

Although deterministic models of the evolution of mass tourism coastal resorts predict an almost inevitable decline over time, theoretical frameworks of the evolution and restructuring policies of mature destinations should be revised to reflect the complex and dynamic way in which these destinations evolve and interact with the tourism market and global socio-economic environment. The present study examines Benidorm because its urban and tourism model and large-scale tourism supply and demand make it one of the most unique destinations on the Mediterranean coast. The investigation reveals the need to adopt theories and models that are not purely deterministic. The dialectic interplay between external factors and the internal factors inherent in this destination simultaneously reveals a complex and diverse stage of maturity and the ability of destinations to create their own future.

Integration of different models in the design of chemical processes: Application to the design of a power plant

With advances in the synthesis and design of chemical processes there is an increasing need for more complex mathematical models with which to screen the alternatives that constitute accurate and reliable process models. Despite the wide availability of sophisticated tools for simulation, optimization and synthesis of chemical processes, the user is frequently interested in using the ‘best available model’. However, in practice, these models are usually little more than a black box with a rigid input–output structure. In this paper we propose to tackle all these models using generalized disjunctive programming to capture the numerical characteristics of each model (in equation form, modular, noisy, etc.) and to deal with each of them according to their individual characteristics. The result is a hybrid modular–equation based approach that allows synthesizing complex processes using different models in a robust and reliable way. The capabilities of the proposed approach are discussed with a case study: the design of a utility system power plant that has been decomposed into its constitutive elements, each treated differently numerically. And finally, numerical results and conclusions are presented.

Simulated magnetic field expulsion in neutron star cores

The study of long-term evolution of neutron star (NS) magnetic fields is key to understanding the rich diversity of NS observations, and to unifying their nature despite the different emission mechanisms and observed properties. Such studies in principle permit a deeper understanding of the most important parameters driving their apparent variety, e.g. radio pulsars, magnetars, X-ray dim isolated NSs, gamma-ray pulsars. We describe, for the first time, the results from self-consistent magnetothermal simulations considering not only the effects of the Hall-driven field dissipation in the crust, but also adding a complete set of proposed driving forces in a superconducting core. We emphasize how each of these core-field processes drive magnetic evolution and affect observables, and show that when all forces are considered together in vectorial form, the net expulsion of core magnetic flux is negligible, and will have no observable effect in the crust (consequently in the observed surface emission) on megayear time-scales. Our new simulations suggest that strong magnetic fields in NS cores (and the signatures on the NS surface) will persist long after the crustal magnetic field has evolved and decayed, due to the weak combined effects of dissipation and expulsion in the stellar core.

M-AARE - Coupling atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models in the Aare river basin, Switzerland

The triggering mechanism and the temporal evolution of large flood events, especially of worst-case scenarios, are not yet fully understood. Consequently, the cumulative losses of extreme floods are unknown. To study the link between weather conditions, discharges and flood losses it is necessary to couple atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models. The objective of the M-AARE project is to test the potentials and opportunities of a model chain that relates atmospheric conditions to flood losses or risks. The M-AARE model chain is a set of coupled models consisting of four main components: the precipitation module, the hydrology module, the hydrodynamic module, and the damage module. The models are coupled in a cascading framework with harmonized time-steps. First exploratory applications show that the one way coupling of the WRF-PREVAH-BASEMENT models has been achieved and provides promising new insights for a better understanding of key aspects in flood risk analysis.