Predicting and diagnosing faults in wastewater treatment process by Bayesian Belief Networks

Diagnosing faults in wastewater treatment, like diagnosis of most problems, requires bi-directional plausible reasoning. This means that both predictive (from causes to symptoms) and diagnostic (from symptoms to causes) inferences have to be made, depending on the evidence available, in reasoning for the final diagnosis. The use of computer technology for the purpose of diagnosing faults in the wastewater process has been explored, and a rule-based expert system was initiated. It was found that such an approach has serious limitations in its ability to reason bi-directionally, which makes it unsuitable for diagnosing tasks under the conditions of uncertainty. The probabilistic approach known as Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNS) was then critically reviewed, and was found to be well-suited for diagnosis under uncertainty. The theory and application of BBNs are outlined. A full-scale BBN for the diagnosis of faults in a wastewater treatment plant based on the activated sludge system has been developed in this research. Results from the BBN show good agreement with the predictions of wastewater experts. It can be concluded that the BBNs are far superior to rule-based systems based on certainty factors in their ability to diagnose faults and predict systems in complex operating systems having inherently uncertain behaviour.

A study of the micro-mechanics of granular media

The development of more realistic constitutive models for granular media, such as sand, requires ingredients which take into account the internal micro-mechanical response to deformation. Unfortunately, at present, very little is known about these mechanisms and therefore it is instructive to find out more about the internal nature of granular samples by conducting suitable tests. In contrast to physical testing the method of investigation used in this study employs the Distinct Element Method. This is a computer based, iterative, time-dependent technique that allows the deformation of granular assemblies to be numerically simulated. By making assumptions regarding contact stiffnesses each individual contact force can be measured and by resolution particle centroid forces can be calculated. Then by dividing particle forces by their respective mass, particle centroid velocities and displacements are obtained by numerical integration. The Distinct Element Method is incorporated into a computer program 'Ball'. This program is effectively a numerical apparatus which forms a logical housing for this method and allows data input and output, and also provides testing control. By using this numerical apparatus tests have been carried out on disc assemblies and many new interesting observations regarding the micromechanical behaviour are revealed. In order to relate the observed microscopic mechanisms of deformation to the flow of the granular system two separate approaches have been used. Firstly a constitutive model has been developed which describes the yield function, flow rule and translation rule for regular assemblies of spheres and discs when subjected to coaxial deformation. Secondly statistical analyses have been carried out using data which was extracted from the simulation tests. These analyses define and quantify granular structure and then show how the force and velocity distributions use the structure to produce the corresponding stress and strain-rate tensors.

Development of an electric heat pump for domestic use

This thesis records the design and development of an electrically driven, air to water, vapour compression heat pump of nominally 6kW heat output, for residential space heating. The study was carried out on behalf of GEC Research Ltd through the Interdisciplinary Higher Degrees Scheme at Aston University. A computer based mathematical model of the vapour compression cycle was produced as a design aid, to enable the effects of component design changes or variations in operating conditions to be predicted. This model is supported by performance testing of the major components, which revealed that improvements in the compressor isentropic efficiency offer the greatest potential for further increases in cycle COPh. The evaporator was designed from first principles, and is based on wire-wound heat transfer tubing. Two evaporators, of air side area 10.27 and 16.24m2, were tested in a temperature and humidity controlled environment, demonstrating that the benefits of the large coil are greater heat pump heat output and lower noise levels. A systematic study of frost growth rates suggested that this problem is most severe at the conditions of saturated air at 0oC combined with low condenser water temperature. A dynamic simulation model was developed to predict the in-service performance of the heat pump. This study confirmed the importance of an adequate radiator area for heat pump installations. A prototype heat pump was designed and manufactured, consisting of a hermetic reciprocating compressor, a coaxial tube condenser and a helically coiled evaporator, using Refrigerant 22. The prototype was field tested in a domestic environment for one and a half years. The installation included a comprehensive monitoring system. Initial problems were encountered with defrosting and compressor noise, both of which were solved. The unit then operated throughout the 1985/86 heating season without further attention, producing a COPh of 2.34.

The development of an expert system for the identification anodic coating process defects as a contribution to the dissemination of anodizing technology

Initially this thesis examines the various mechanisms by which technology is acquired within anodizing plants. In so doing the history of the evolution of anodizing technology is recorded, with particular reference to the growth of major markets and to the contribution of the marketing efforts of the aluminium industry. The business economics of various types of anodizing plants are analyzed. Consideration is also given to the impact of developments in anodizing technology on production economics and market growth. The economic costs associated with work rejected for process defects are considered. Recent changes in the industry have created conditions whereby information technology has a potentially important role to play in retaining existing knowledge. One such contribution is exemplified by the expert system which has been developed for the identification of anodizing process defects. Instead of using a "rule-based" expert system, a commercial neural networks program has been adapted for the task. The advantages of neural networks over 'rule-based' systems is that they are better suited to production problems, since the actual conditions prevailing when the defect was produced are often not known with certainty. In using the expert system, the user first identifies the process stage at which the defect probably occurred and is then directed to a file enabling the actual defects to be identified. After making this identification, the user can consult a database which gives a more detailed description of the defect, advises on remedial action and provides a bibliography of papers relating to the defect. The database uses a proprietary hypertext program, which also provides rapid cross-referencing to similar types of defect. Additionally, a graphics file can be accessed which (where appropriate) will display a graphic of the defect on screen. A total of 117 defects are included, together with 221 literature references, supplemented by 48 cross-reference hyperlinks. The main text of the thesis contains 179 literature references. (DX186565)

Expatriate managers adjustment and its impact on subordinates reactions: a cross cultural leadership study of Kenya and Ethiopia

Research on culture, leadership and adjustment shows that societal culture influences leadership in such a way that it can impact on expatriate managers' effectiveness and adjustment in a new culture. In previous research, cultural background, personality, motives or behaviour of expatriate managers and their followers' reactions to them have been investigated in Europe, America and Asia. However, little attention has been paid on research on expatriate managers in African cultures especially in Eastern Africa. The present study represents an attempt to address the gap by examining how societal culture, leadership and adjustment success are interrelated for expatriate managers in Kenya and Ethiopia. Questionnaire data were obtained from a) local middle managers (N=160) for studying societal culture and leadership in Kenya and Ethiopia, b) expatriate managers in non-governmental organizations - NGOs (N=28) for studying expatriate managers' personality, motives and adjustment success and c) their immediate subordinates (N=125) for studying the expatriate managers' behaviours and their subordinates' reactions to them. Additionally, expatriate managers were interviewed and responses were coded for implicit motives, experiences and adjustment. SPSS was used to analyse data from questionnaires to obtain cultural and leadership dimensions, leader behaviour and subordinate reactions. The NVIVO computer based disclosure analysis package was used to analyse interview data. Findings indicate that societal culture influences leadership behaviours and leadership perceptions while the expatriate managers' motives, behaviours, personality and the cross cultural training they received prior to their assignment impact on the expatriates' adjustment success and on subordinates' reactions to them. The cultural fit between expatriate managers' home country (19 countries) and the target country (Kenya or Ethiopia) had no significant association with adjustment success but was positively related to expatriate behaviour and negatively associated with subordinates reactions. However, some particular societal practices - obviously adopted by expatriates and transferred to their target country - did predict subordinates' commitment, motivation and job satisfaction. Furthermore, expatriates' responsibility motivation was positively related to their adjustment success. Regarding leadership behaviours and effectiveness, expatriate' supportive behaviours predicted subordinates' job satisfaction most strongly. Expatriate managers expressing their management philosophies and experience shed light on the various aspects of adjustment and management of NGOs. In addition, review of Kenyan and Ethiopian cultures and the NGO context in these countries offers valuable information for expatriate managers. This study's general imphcation for Cross Cultural Management and lnternational Human Resources Management is that the combination of culture general and culture specific knowledge and reflections on Eastern Africa countries can inform senior management and international HR staff about the critical issue of what to include in training, coaching, and actual experience in a particular host country in order to ensure effective leadership. Furthennore, this knowledge is expected to influence expatriate managers' behaviour modification to enhance positive subordinate reactions. Questions about how to prepare expatriate managers and subordinates to work more competently and sensitively across cultures are addressed. Further theoretical implications, limitations of the study and directions for future research are also addressed.

Modelling human performance within manufacturing systems design:from a theoretical towards a practical framework

Computer-based simulation is frequently used to evaluate the capabilities of proposed manufacturing system designs. Unfortunately, the real systems are often found to perform quite differently from simulation predictions and one possible reason for this is an over-simplistic representation of workers' behaviour within current simulation techniques. The accuracy of design predictions could be improved through a modelling tool that integrates with computer-based simulation and incorporates the factors and relationships that determine workers' performance. This paper explores the viability of developing a similar tool based on our previously published theoretical modelling framework. It focuses on evolving this purely theoretical framework towards a practical modelling tool that can actually be used to expand the capabilities of current simulation techniques. Based on an industrial study, the paper investigates how the theoretical framework works in practice, analyses strengths and weaknesses in its formulation, and proposes developments that can contribute towards enabling human performance modelling in a practical way.

Use of Dynamic Technologies for Web-enabled Database Management Systems

In this paper we consider two computer systems and the dynamic Web technologies they are using. Different contemporary dynamic web technologies are described in details and their advantages and disadvantages have been shown. Specific applications are developed, clinic and studying systems, and their programming models are described. Finally we implement these two applications in the students education process: Online studying has been tested in the Technical University – Varna, Web based clinic system has been used for practical education of the students in the Medical College - Sofia, branch V. Tarnovo

Handwriting in Forensic Investigations

The process of automatic handwriting investigation in forensic science is described. The general scheme of a computer-based handwriting analysis system is used to point out at the basic problems of image enhancement and segmentation, feature extraction and decision-making. Factors that may compromise the accuracy of expert’s conclusion are underlined and directions for future investigations are marked.

Interface Engineering and Design: Adaptibility Problems

* The research work reviewed in this paper has been carried out in the context of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research funded project “Adaptable Intelligent Interfaces Research and Development for Distance Learning Systems”(grant N 02-01-81019). The authors wish to acknowledge the co-operation with the Byelorussian partners of this project.

Интегрированный Моделирующий Комплекс Поддержки Принятия Решений в Комплексной Корпоративной Системе Управления Магистральной Газотранспортной Сетью

The approach to construction, structuring class of tasks, technology of the use and stages of modernization systems support of decision-making in composition the operative-dispatch control computer-based system by the gas-transport system of Ukraine is considered.

A qualitative analysis of the lived experience of nursing staff developers in the process of changing to a new educational model

The purpose of this study was to document and critically analyze the lived experience of selected nursing staff developers in the process of moving toward a new model for hospital nursing education. Eleven respondents were drawn from a nation-wide population of about two hundred individuals involved in nursing staff development. These subjects were responsible for the implementation of the Performance Based Development System (PBDS) in their institutions.^ A purposive, criterion-based sampling technique was used with respondents being selected according to size of hospital, primary responsibility for orchestration of the change, influence over budgetary factors and managerial responsibility for PBDS. Data were gathered by the researcher through both in-person and telephone interviews. A semi-structured interview guide, designed by the researcher was used, and respondents were encouraged to amplify on their recollections as desired. Audiotapes were transcribed and resulting computer files were analyzed using the program "Martin". Answers to interview questions were compiled and reported across cases. The data was then reviewed a second time and interpreted for emerging themes and patterns.^ Two types of verification were used in the study. Internal verification was done through interview transcript review and feedback by respondents. External verification was done through review and feedback on data analysis by readers who were experienced in management of staff development departments.^ All respondents were female, so Gilligan's concept of the "ethic of care" was examined as a decision making strategy. Three levels of caring which influenced decision making were found. They were caring: (a) for the organization, (b) for the employee, and (c) for the patient. The four existentials of the lived experience, relationality, corporeality, temporality and spatiality were also examined to reveal the everydayness of making change. ^

Adult education directors' perceptions of performance indicators for adult education programs in the state of Florida

Current demands for accountability in education emphasize outcome-based program evaluation and tie program funding to individual student performance. As has been the case for elementary and secondary programs, demands for accountability have increased pressure on adult educators to show evidence of the benefits of their programs in order to justify their financial support. In Florida, recent legislation fundamentally changes the delivery of adult education in the state by establishing a performance-based funding system that is based on outcomes related to the retention, completion, and employment of program participants.^ A performance-based funding system requires an evaluation process that stresses outcome indicators over indicators that focus on program context or process. Although the state has adopted indicators of program quality to evaluate its adult education programs, these indicators focus mostly on program processes rather than student outcomes. In addition, the indicators are not specifically tied to workforce development outcomes, a priority to federal and local funding agents.^ Improving the accountability of adult education programs and defining the role of these programs in Florida's Workforce Development System has become a priority to policy makers across the state. Another priority has been to involve adult education practitioners in every step of this process.^ This study was conducted in order to determine what performance indicators, as judged by the directors and supervisors of adult education programs in the state of Florida, are important and feasible in measuring the quality and effectiveness of these programs. The results of the study indicated that, both statewide and by region, the respondents consistently gave the highest ratings on both importance and feasibility to the indicators of Program Context, which reflect the needs, composition, and structure of the programs, and to the indicators of Educational Gain, which reflect learner progress in the attainment of basic skills and competencies. In turn, the respondents gave the lowest ratings on both importance and feasibility to the indicators in the areas of Return on State's Investment, Efficiency, Retention, and Workforce Training. In general, the indicators that received high ratings for importance also received high ratings for feasibility. ^

Spatial-temporal mining of archived automatic vehicle location (AVL) data for transit service planning applications

An Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) system is a computer-based vehicle tracking system that is capable of determining a vehicle's location in real time. As a major technology of the Advanced Public Transportation System (APTS), AVL systems have been widely deployed by transit agencies for purposes such as real-time operation monitoring, computer-aided dispatching, and arrival time prediction. AVL systems make a large amount of transit performance data available that are valuable for transit performance management and planning purposes. However, the difficulties of extracting useful information from the huge spatial-temporal database have hindered off-line applications of the AVL data. ^ In this study, a data mining process, including data integration, cluster analysis, and multiple regression, is proposed. The AVL-generated data are first integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. The model-based cluster method is employed to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of transit travel speeds, which may be easily translated into travel time. The transit speed variations along the route segments are identified. Transit service periods such as morning peak, mid-day, afternoon peak, and evening periods are determined based on analyses of transit travel speed variations for different times of day. The seasonal patterns of transit performance are investigated by using the analysis of variance (ANOVA). Travel speed models based on the clustered time-of-day intervals are developed using important factors identified as having significant effects on speed for different time-of-day periods. ^ It has been found that transit performance varied from different seasons and different time-of-day periods. The geographic location of a transit route segment also plays a role in the variation of the transit performance. The results of this research indicate that advanced data mining techniques have good potential in providing automated techniques of assisting transit agencies in service planning, scheduling, and operations control. ^

Developing The Ladder To Professionalism

Developing The Ladder To Professionalism by Tom Baum, Manager, Curricula Development Unit and Patricia Reid, Training Advisor, Curricula Development Unit at the Council for Education, Recruitment and Training, State Agency for Hotels, Catering and Tourism in Dublin, Ireland: “Developments are currently in hand to promote increased professionalism in management within the hotel and catering industry in Ireland. The authors discuss the particular responsibility of educational agencies. Recent initiatives to provide a comprehensive and flexible career ladder encompassing craft training, in-service and “second-chance” education, as well as more conventional college-based initial management are reviewed, as are attempts by various industry associations to enhance the professionalism of members.” In this discussion, the authors have primarily devoted their attention to degree gaps in professionalism in the hospitality industry, and the measures that can be taken to mitigate these circumstances. “The hotel, catering, and tourism industry, in common with others involved in the service function, has been relatively slow to adopt modern approaches to management and technology at all levels,” Baum and Reid want you to know. The authors hail from Ireland and point to steps that the industry, in Ireland, is taking to address service problems. “Developments are taking place in Ireland toward professionalism in management in the context of the Irish hotel and catering industry; education and educationally related institutions have taken a role in contributing to the professionalization of work in this area,” say the authors. Baum and Reid point to CERT’s - The State Training Agency for Hotels, Catering and Tourism - involvement in promoting professionalism in the Irish hospitality industry, and provide a comprehensive graph to illustrate CERT’s paths to successful management. Worthy of note is, proprietor management is more common on that side of the Atlantic’, with most properties tending to be smaller than U.S. chain operations. That fact, by no means suggests that management style is indeed complete in the U.K, but it can be said that maybe such style is more congenial. “However, finding the balance between operationalism and the management and development functions seems to underpin perhaps the cardinal problems of professionalism in hotel and catering management in Ireland,” say the authors. “The dichotomy, clearly represented in the management of the industry, is equally evident within the educational and training system and also in the limited influence of associations…” Baum and Reid expand on that issue. The authors do concede that it is difficult to quantify what exactly constitutes good professionalism in the hospitality industry; it is, after all, a fairly subjective concept. They continue by describing some of the degree and sub-degree programs being offered in Ireland.

Design and evaluation of a consulting system for database design

Database design is a difficult problem for non-expert designers. It is desirable to assist such designers during the problem solving process by means of a knowledge based (KB) system. Although a number of prototype KB systems have been proposed, there are many shortcomings. Firstly, few have incorporated sufficient expertise in modeling relationships, particularly higher order relationships. Secondly, there does not seem to be any published empirical study that experimentally tested the effectiveness of any of these KB tools. Thirdly, problem solving behavior of non-experts, whom the systems were intended to assist, has not been one of the bases for system design. In this project, a consulting system, called CODA, for conceptual database design that addresses the above short comings was developed and empirically validated. More specifically, the CODA system incorporates (a) findings on why non-experts commit errors and (b) heuristics for modeling relationships. Two approaches to knowledge base implementation were used and compared in this project, namely system restrictiveness and decisional guidance (Silver 1990). The Restrictive system uses a proscriptive approach and limits the designer's choices at various design phases by forcing him/her to follow a specific design path. The Guidance system approach, which is less restrictive, involves providing context specific, informative and suggestive guidance throughout the design process. Both the approaches would prevent erroneous design decisions. The main objectives of the study are to evaluate (1) whether the knowledge-based system is more effective than the system without a knowledge-base and (2) which approach to knowledge implementation - whether Restrictive or Guidance - is more effective. To evaluate the effectiveness of the knowledge base itself, the systems were compared with a system that does not incorporate the expertise (Control). An experimental procedure using student subjects was used to test the effectiveness of the systems. The subjects solved a task without using the system (pre-treatment task) and another task using one of the three systems, viz. Control, Guidance or Restrictive (experimental task). Analysis of experimental task scores of those subjects who performed satisfactorily in the pre-treatment task revealed that the knowledge based approach to database design support lead to more accurate solutions than the control system. Among the two KB approaches, Guidance approach was found to lead to better performance when compared to the Control system. It was found that the subjects perceived the Restrictive system easier to use than the Guidance system.