Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections

A fast simple climate modelling approach is developed for predicting and helping to understand general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We show that the simple model reproduces the GCM results accurately, for global mean surface air temperature change and global-mean heat uptake projections from 9 GCMs in the fifth coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). This implies that understanding gained from idealised CO2 step experiments is applicable to policy-relevant scenario projections. Our approach is conceptually simple. It works by using the climate response to a CO2 step change taken directly from a GCM experiment. With radiative forcing from non-CO2 constituents obtained by adapting the Forster and Taylor method, we use our method to estimate results for CMIP5 representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments for cases not run by the GCMs. We estimate differences between pairs of RCPs rather than RCP anomalies relative to the pre-industrial state. This gives better results because it makes greater use of available GCM projections. The GCMs exhibit differences in radiative forcing, which we incorporate in the simple model. We analyse the thus-completed ensemble of RCP projections. The ensemble mean changes between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for global temperature (heat uptake) are, for RCP8.5: 3.8 K (2.3 × 1024 J); for RCP6.0: 2.3 K (1.6 × 1024 J); for RCP4.5: 2.0 K (1.6 × 1024 J); for RCP2.6: 1.1 K (1.3 × 1024 J). The relative spread (standard deviation/ensemble mean) for these scenarios is around 0.2 and 0.15 for temperature and heat uptake respectively. We quantify the relative effect of mitigation action, through reduced emissions, via the time-dependent ratios (change in RCPx)/(change in RCP8.5), using changes with respect to pre-industrial conditions. We find that the effects of mitigation on global-mean temperature change and heat uptake are very similar across these different GCMs.

Maternal antenatal anxiety, postnatal stroking and emotional problems in children: outcomes predicted from pre and postnatal programming hypotheses

Background Mothers' self-reported stroking of their infants over the first weeks of life modifies the association between prenatal depression and physiological and emotional reactivity at 7 months, consistent with animal studies of the effects of tactile stimulation. We now investigate whether the effects of maternal stroking persist to 2.5 years. Given animal and human evidence for sex differences in the effects of prenatal stress we compare associations in boys and girls. Method From a general population sample of 1233 first-time mothers recruited at 20 weeks gestation we drew a random sample of 316 for assessment at 32 weeks, stratified by reported inter-partner psychological abuse, a risk indicator for child development. Of these mothers, 243 reported at 5 and 9 weeks how often they stroked their infants, and completed the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) at 2.5 years post-delivery. Results There was a significant interaction between prenatal anxiety and maternal stroking in the prediction of CBCL internalizing (p = 0.001) and anxious/depressed scores (p < 0.001). The effects were stronger in females than males, and the three-way interaction prenatal anxiety × maternal stroking × sex of infant was significant for internalizing symptoms (p = 0.003). The interactions arose from an association between prenatal anxiety and internalizing symptoms only in the presence of low maternal stroking. Conclusions The findings are consistent with stable epigenetic effects, many sex specific, reported in animal studies. While epigenetic mechanisms may be underlying the associations, it remains to be established whether stroking affects gene expression in humans.

The synergies between goal sketching and enterprise architecture

This paper introduces a pragmatic and practical method for requirements modeling. The method is built using the concepts of our goal sketching technique together with techniques from an enterprise architecture modeling language. Our claim is that our method will help project managers who want to establish early control of their projects and will also give managers confidence in the scope of their project. In particular we propose the inclusion of assumptions as first class entities in the ArchiMate enterprise architecture modeling language and an extension of the ArchiMate Motivation Model principle to allow radical as well as normative analyses. We demonstrate the usefulness of this method using a simple university library system as an example.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.

Collocating satellite-based radar and radiometer measurements — methodology and usage examples

Collocations between two satellite sensors are occasions where both sensors observe the same place at roughly the same time. We study collocations between the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) on-board NOAA-18 and the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) on-board CloudSat. First, a simple method is presented to obtain those collocations and this method is compared with a more complicated approach found in literature. We present the statistical properties of the collocations, with particular attention to the effects of the differences in footprint size. For 2007, we find approximately two and a half million MHS measurements with CPR pixels close to their centrepoints. Most of those collocations contain at least ten CloudSat pixels and image relatively homogeneous scenes. In the second part, we present three possible applications for the collocations. Firstly, we use the collocations to validate an operational Ice Water Path (IWP) product from MHS measurements, produced by the National Environment Satellite, Data and Information System (NESDIS) in the Microwave Surface and Precipitation Products System (MSPPS). IWP values from the CloudSat CPR are found to be significantly larger than those from the MSPPS. Secondly, we compare the relation between IWP and MHS channel 5 (190.311 GHz) brightness temperature for two datasets: the collocated dataset, and an artificial dataset. We find a larger variability in the collocated dataset. Finally, we use the collocations to train an Artificial Neural Network and describe how we can use it to develop a new MHS-based IWP product. We also study the effect of adding measurements from the High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), channels 8 (11.11 μm) and 11 (8.33 μm). This shows a small improvement in the retrieval quality. The collocations described in the article are available for public use.

Garlic (Allium sativum L.) and ready-to-eat garlic products: In vitro antioxidant activity

Garlic contains polyphenol and sulphur compounds, which are responsible for its antioxidant activity (AA). This study aimed at evaluating the AA of fresh garlic and its commercialised products and their shelf life. Fresh garlic (FG) and its products, i.e. chopped with salt (CGS), chopped without Salt (CG), fried (FRG) and mixed garlic (FG with dehydrated garlic; MG) antioxidant activity was evaluated by three different methods: DPPH (1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl) assay, beta-carotene/linoleic acid assay and Rancimat method. Amongst all the analysed products, fried garlic presented the highest antioxidant activity. The free radical-scavenging activity decreased during the shelf life of all analysed products that correlated with the decrease in the total polyphenol content. Our findings suggest that some compounds other than phenol may have contributed towards this outcome. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of an ELISA method for the serological diagnosis of canine brucellosis due to Brucella canis

In the present study, the validation of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for serodiagnosis of canine brucellosis is described. Two different antigenic extracts, obtained by heat or ultrasonic homogenization of microbial antigens from a wild isolate of Brucella canis bacteria, were compared by ELISA and Western blot (WB). A total of 145 canine sera were used to define sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the ELISA as follows: (1) sera from 34 animals with natural B. canis infection, confirmed by blood culture and PCR, as well as 51 sera samples from healthy dogs with negative results by the agar-gel immunodiffusion (ACID) test for canine brucellosis, were used as the control panel for B. cants infection; and (2) to scrutinize the possibility of cross reactions with other common dog infections in the same geographical area in Brazil, 60 sera samples from dogs harboring known infections by Leptospira sp., Ehrlichia canis, canine distemper virus (CDV), Neospora caninum, Babesia canis and Leishmania chagasi (10 in each group) were included in the study. The ELISA using heat soluble bacterial extract (HE-antigen) as antigen showed the best values of sensitivity (91.18%), specificity (100%) and accuracy (96.47%). In the WB analyses, the HE-antigen showed no cross-reactivity with sera from dogs with different infections, while the B. canis sonicate had various protein bands identified by those sera. The performance of the ELISA standardized with the heat soluble B. canis antigen indicates that this assay can be used as a reliable and practical method to confirm infection by this microorganism, as well as a tool for seroepidemiological studies. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Response surface analysis of extract yield and flavour intensity of Brazilian cherry (Eugenia uniflora L.) obtained by supercritical carbon dioxide extraction

This work evaluated the effect of pressure and temperature on yield and characteristic flavour intensity of Brazilian cherry (Eugenia uniflora L) extracts obtained by supercritical CO(2) using response surface analysis, which is a simple and efficient method for first inquiries. A complete central composite 2(2) factorial experimental design was applied using temperature (ranging from 40 to 60 degrees C) and pressure (from 150 to 250 bar) as independent variables. A second order model proved to be predictive (p <= 0.05) for the extract yield as affected by pressure and temperature, with better results being achieved at the central point (200 bar and 50 degrees C). For the flavour intensity, a first order model proved to be predictive (p <= 0.05) showing the influence of temperature. Greater characteristic flavour intensity in extracts was obtained for relatively high temperature (> 50 degrees C), Therefore, as far as Brazilian cherry is concerned, optimum conditions for achieving higher extract yield do not necessarily coincide to those for obtaining richer flavour intensity. Industrial relevance: Supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) is an emerging clean technology through which one may obtain extracts free from organic solvents. Extract yields from natural products for applications in food, pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries have been widely disseminated in the literature. Accordingly, two lines of research have industrial relevance, namely, (i) operational optimization studies for high SFE yields and (ii) investigation on important properties extracts are expected to present (so as to define their prospective industrial application). Specifically, this work studied the optimization of SFE process to obtain extracts from a tropical fruit showing high intensity of its characteristic flavour, aiming at promoting its application in natural aroma enrichment of processed foods. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fast heuristics for the Steiner tree problem with revenues, budget and hop constraints

This article describes and compares three heuristics for a variant of the Steiner tree problem with revenues, which includes budget and hop constraints. First, a greedy method which obtains good approximations in short computational times is proposed. This initial solution is then improved by means of a destroy-and-repair method or a tabu search algorithm. Computational results compare the three methods in terms of accuracy and speed. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Er:YAl(3)(BO(3))(4) glassy thin films from polymeric precursor and sol-gel methods: Waveguides for integrated optics

This paper presents the characterization of single-mode waveguides for 980 and 1550 nm wavelengths. High quality planar waveguide structure was fabricated from Y(1-x)Er(x)Al(3)(BO(3))(4) multilayer thin films with x = 0.02, 0.05, 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5, prepared through the polymeric precursor and sol-gel methods using spin-coating. The propagation losses of the planar waveguides varying from 0.63 to 0.88 dB/cm were measured at 632.8 and 1550 nm. The photoluminescence spectra and radiative lifetimes of the Er(3+) (4)I(13/2) energy level were measured in waveguiding geometry. For most samples the photoluminescence decay was single exponential with lifetimes in between 640 mu s and 200 mu s, depending on the erbium concentration and synthesis method. These results indicate that Er doped YAl(3)(BO(3))(4) compounds are promising for low loss waveguides. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All fights reserved.

High specific surface area LaFeCo perovskites-Synthesis by nanocasting and catalytic behavior in the reduction of NO with CO

LaFe(1-x)CO(x)O(3) perovskites were conventionally or nanocasting synthesized. The nanocasting involved the preparation of a micro-mesoporous carbon mould using a Silica Aerosil 200 and a carbon source. Then, perovskites were carbon cast at 800 degrees C. The solids were characterized by XRD, N(2) sorption, FTIR, TGA/DTG, SEM and TEM. N(2) sorption evidenced that the nanocast perovskites did not show significant intraparticle porosity in despite of their enhanced (30-50 m(2)/g) specific surface area (SSA). Nevertheless, TEM images, XRD and Rietveld refinement data showed that the solids are constituted at least by 97 wt% of perovskite phase and by agglomerates smaller than 100 nm constituted by crystallites of about 6 nm. TGA/DTG results demonstrated carbon oxidation during the perovskite formation, thus eliminating the template effect and facilitating the occurrence of sintering, which limited the SSA increase. The nanocast perovskites were more active in the reduction of NO than the uncast ones, behavior that was attributed to the increase in their SSA that allows the exposure of a higher number of accessible active sites. However, the perovskite composition and the presence of impurities can reduce the effect of the improvement of the textural properties. The nanocast perovskites also showed high thermal and catalytic stability, corroborating their potential as catalysts for the studied reaction. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of zirconia-magnesia/zirconia-yttria composite solid electrolytes

Composite solid electrolytes were prepared by thoroughly mixing ZrO2:8 mol% MgO (Z8Mg) and ZrO(2):3 mol% Y(2)O(3) (Z3Y) ceramic powders followed by pressing and sintering at 1500 degrees C/1 h. The properties of the sintered pellets were studied by X-ray diffraction for evaluation of the structural phases by the Rietveld method, by high-temperature dilatometry for analysis of the thermal shrinkage/expansion behavior, and by impedance spectroscopy for determination of the oxide ion conductivity. The x(Z8Mg)+(1-x)(Z3Y) specimens, x= 0.2, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.8 and 1.0, are partially stabilized (monoclinic, cubic and tetragonal phases) with density >94% of the theoretical density and show thermal shock resistance and electrical conductivity values suitable for high-temperature oxygen gas detection. One-end closed tube samples of the composite solid electrolytes were assembled in Pt/Z8Mg+Z3Y/Cr+Cr(2)O(3)/Pt electrochemical cells for exposure to different levels of oxygen in the 1-850 ppm range. The total electrical conductivity increases for increasing the relative Z3Y content. Addition of Z3Y to Z8Mg (80 wt.%-20 wt.%) suppresses the electronic contribution to the electrical conductivity at 620 degrees C. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determination of fluoroacetate and fluoride in blood serum by capillary zone electrophoresis using capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detection

Fluoroacetate is a highly toxic species naturally found in plants and in commercial products (compound 1080) for population control of several undesirable animal species. However, it is non-selective and toxic to many other animals including humans, and thus its detection is very important for forensic purposes. This paper presents a sensitive and fast method for the determination of fluoroacetate in blood serum using capillary electrophoresis with capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detection. Serum blood samples were treated with ethanol to remove proteins. The samples were analyzed in BGE containing 15 mmol/L histidine and 30 mmol/L gluconic acid (pH 3.85). The calibration curve was linear up to 75 mu mol/L (R(2) = 0.9995 for N = 12). The detection limit in the blood serum was 0.15 mg/kg, which is smaller than the lethal dose for humans and other animals. Fluoride, a metabolite of the fluoroacetate defluorination, could also be detected for levels greater than 20 mu mol/L, when polybrene was used for reversion of the EOF. CTAB and didecyldimethylammonium bromide are not useful for this task because of the severe reduction of the fluoride level. However, no interference was observed for fluoroacetate.

Simple telemedicine for developing regions: Camera phones and paper-based microfluidic devices for real-time, off-site diagnosis

This article describes a prototype system for quantifying bioassays and for exchanging the results of the assays digitally with physicians located off-site. The system uses paper-based microfluidic devices for running multiple assays simultaneously, camera phones or portable scanners for digitizing the intensity of color associated with each colorimetric assay, and established communications infrastructure for transferring the digital information from the assay site to an off-site laboratory for analysis by a trained medical professional; the diagnosis then can be returned directly to the healthcare provider in the field. The microfluidic devices were fabricated in paper using photolithography and were functionalized with reagents for colorimetric assays. The results of the assays were quantified by comparing the intensities of the color developed in each assay with those of calibration curves. An example of this system quantified clinically relevant concentrations of glucose and protein in artificial urine. The combination of patterned paper, a portable method for obtaining digital images, and a method for exchanging results of the assays with off-site diagnosticians offers new opportunities for inexpensive monitoring of health, especially in situations that require physicians to travel to patients (e.g., in the developing world, in emergency management, and during field operations by the military) to obtain diagnostic information that might be obtained more effectively by less valuable personnel.

Independent Domain of Symmetric Encryption using Least SignificantBit : Computer Vision, Steganography and Cryptography Techniques

The rapid development of data transfer through internet made it easier to send the data accurate and faster to the destination. There are many transmission media to transfer the data to destination like e-mails; at the same time it is may be easier to modify and misuse the valuable information through hacking. So, in order to transfer the data securely to the destination without any modifications, there are many approaches like cryptography and steganography. This paper deals with the image steganography as well as with the different security issues, general overview of cryptography, steganography and digital watermarking approaches.  The problem of copyright violation of multimedia data has increased due to the enormous growth of computer networks that provides fast and error free transmission of any unauthorized duplicate and possibly manipulated copy of multimedia information. In order to be effective for copyright protection, digital watermark must be robust which are difficult to remove from the object in which they are embedded despite a variety of possible attacks. The message to be send safe and secure, we use watermarking. We use invisible watermarking to embed the message using LSB (Least Significant Bit) steganographic technique. The standard LSB technique embed the message in every pixel, but my contribution for this proposed watermarking, works with the hint for embedding the message only on the image edges alone. If the hacker knows that the system uses LSB technique also, it cannot decrypt correct message. To make my system robust and secure, we added cryptography algorithm as Vigenere square. Whereas the message is transmitted in cipher text and its added advantage to the proposed system. The standard Vigenere square algorithm works with either lower case or upper case. The proposed cryptography algorithm is Vigenere square with extension of numbers also. We can keep the crypto key with combination of characters and numbers. So by using these modifications and updating in this existing algorithm and combination of cryptography and steganography method we develop a secure and strong watermarking method. Performance of this watermarking scheme has been analyzed by evaluating the robustness of the algorithm with PSNR (Peak Signal to Noise Ratio) and MSE (Mean Square Error) against the quality of the image for large amount of data. While coming to see results of the proposed encryption, higher value of 89dB of PSNR with small value of MSE is 0.0017. Then it seems the proposed watermarking system is secure and robust for hiding secure information in any digital system, because this system collect the properties of both steganography and cryptography sciences.