Asymptotic behaviour of approximate Bayesian estimators

Although approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become a popular technique for performing parameter estimation when the likelihood functions are analytically intractable there has not as yet been a complete investigation of the theoretical properties of the resulting estimators. In this paper we give a theoretical analysis of the asymptotic properties of ABC based parameter estimators for hidden Markov models and show that ABC based estimators satisfy asymptotically biased versions of the standard results in the statistical literature.

Parameter Estimation for Hidden Markov Models with Intractable Likelihoods

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular technique for analysing data for complex models where the likelihood function is intractable. It involves using simulation from the model to approximate the likelihood, with this approximate likelihood then being used to construct an approximate posterior. In this paper, we consider methods that estimate the parameters by maximizing the approximate likelihood used in ABC. We give a theoretical analysis of the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimator. In particular, we derive results analogous to those of consistency and asymptotic normality for standard maximum likelihood estimation. We also discuss how sequential Monte Carlo methods provide a natural method for implementing our likelihood-based ABC procedures.

Teología : misterio y humanidad

Resumen: En continuidad con su Lección Inaugural de 2010 en la Facultad de Teología de la UCA, el Pbro. Dr. Fernando Ortega, actual Decano de esta Facultad, reflexiona sobre la teología en diálogo con el misterio de Dios y la humanidad en este contexto epocal para alentar la tarea de profesores y alumnos de la comunidad académica. Se propone una teología humilde, es decir, orante, amante, consciente de sus límites, admirativamente abierta al exceso del Dios siempre mayor, que podrá cantar en el presente el “ya pero todavía más” de Dios en la humanidad, empezando por nuestra comunidad teológica.

El deán Gregorio Funes & Dámaso Antonio Larrañaga : evocando el pasado desde un presente revolucionario

Resumen: El avance que presentamos tiene el propósito de estudiar los antecedentes proto-historiográficos rioplatenses, a través del análisis del “Ensayo de la Historia civil de Buenos Aires, Tucumán y Paraguay”, del Deán Gregorio Funes, y del “Descubrimiento y Población de esta Banda Oriental del Río de la Plata. 1494 - 1818”, del Pbro. Dámaso Antonio Larrañaga. Ambos autores fueron eclesiásticos de acción destacada en el período revolucionario. Se establecerán ciertos ejes comparativos los cuales pretenden abarcar: 1) el periodo colonial, 2) el proceso revolucionario, 3) los límites geográficos por los cuales sobrevuelan los relatos, 4) los modos en que son descriptos los pueblos originarios, 5) los asuntos eclesiásticos y religiosos

Sediment budget: principals and applications

The framework of sediment budget concepts provides a formalized procedure to account for the various components of sediment flux and the changes of volume that occur within a given region. Sediment budget methodology can be useful in a number of coastal engineering and research applications, including: inferring the amount of onshore sediment transport for a nearshore system that contains an "excess of sediment", determining sediment deficits to downdrift beaches as a result of engineering works at navigational entrances, evaluating the performance of a beach nourishment project, inferring the distribution of longshore sediment transport across the surf zone, etc. This chapter reviews briefly the governing equations for sediment budget calculations, considers various measurement and other bases for determining the sediment flux components necessary to apply the sediment budget concept and finally for illustration purposes, applies the sediment budget concept to several examples. (PDF contains 52 pages.)

Shoreline erosion due to extreme storms and sea level rise

A summary is presented of research conducted on beach erosion associated with extreme storms and sea level rise. These results were developed by the author and graduate students under sponsorship of the University of Delaware Sea Grant Program. Various shoreline response problems of engineering interest are examined. The basis for the approach is a monotonic equilibrium profile of the form h = Ax2 /3 in which h is water depth at a distance x from the shoreline and A is a scale parameter depending primarily on sediment characteristics and secondarily on wave characteristics. This form is shown to be consistent with uniform wave energy dissipation per unit volume. The dependency of A on sediment size is quantified through laboratory and field data. Quasi-static beach response is examined to represent the effect of sea level rise. Cases considered include natural and seawalled profiles. To represent response to storms of realistic durations, a model is proposed in which the offshore transport is proportional to the "excess" energy dissipation per unit volume. The single rate constant in this model was evaluated based on large scale wave tank tests and confirmed with Hurricane Eloise pre- and post-storm surveys. It is shown that most hurricanes only cause 10% to 25% of the erosion potential associated with the peak storm tide and wave conditions. Additional applications include profile response employing a fairly realistic breaking model in which longshore bars are formed and long-term (500 years) Monte Carlo simulation including the contributions due to sea level rise and random storm occurrences. (PDF has 67 pages.)

Some considerations on coastal processes relevant to sea level rise

The effects of potential sea level rise on the shoreline and shore environment have been briefly examined by considering the interactions between sea level rise and relevant coastal processes. These interactions have been reviewed beginning with a discussion of the need to reanalyze previous estimates of eustatic sea level rise and compaction effects in water level measurement. This is followed by considerations on sea level effects on coastal and estuarine tidal ranges, storm surge and water level response, and interaction with natural and constructed shoreline features. The desirability to reevaluate the well known Bruun Rule for estimating shoreline recession has been noted. The mechanics of ground and surface water intrusion with reference to sea level rise are then reviewed. This is followed by sedimentary processes in the estuaries including wetland response. Finally comments are included on some probable effects of sea level rise on coastal ecosystems. These interactions are complex and lead to shoreline evolution (under a sea level rise) which is highly site-specific. Models which determine shoreline change on the basis of inundation of terrestrial topography without considering relevant coastal processes are likely to lead to erroneous shoreline scenarios, particularly where the shoreline is composed of erodible sedimentary material. With some exceptions, present day knowledge of shoreline response to hydrodynamic forcing is inadequate for long-term quantitative predictions. A series of interrelated basic and applied research issues must be addressed in the coming decades to determine shoreline response to sea level change with an acceptable degree of confidence. (PDF contains 189 pages.)

Beach monitoring project Sand Key Phase II Beach nourishment program (North Redington Beach and Redington Shores) Post-Nourishment Report Part II Offshore Profiles and Wave Data

This study presents the third post-nourishment survey (January 1989) results for the Sand Key Phase II beach nourishment project carried out in June, 1988. The monitoring program to this beach nourishment project is a joint effort between the University of South Florida and University of Florida. The field surveys include a total of 26 profiles, encompassing approximately 3 miles of shoreline extending from DNR R-96 to R-1ll. The total calculated volume loss of sand in the nourished segment (from R-99G to R-107) between the July 88 and January 89 surveys is 51,113 cubic yards, which is a loss about 9.7 percent of 529,150 cubic yards actually placed in the nourishment project. The total loss of sand computed in the entire survey area is 26,796 cubic yards, which is only 5.1 percent of the sand placed in the nourishment project. It is stressed that a part of these net volume reductions is due to the background erosion and not due to spreading losses induced by the nourishment project. (PDF contains 168 pages.)

Florida's West Coast inlets: shoreline effects and recommended action

This report responds to the 1986 Beaches Bill which, in recognition of the potential deleterious impact on Florida's beaches of inlets modified for navigation, mandated a study of those inlets with identification of recommended action to reduce the impacts. This report addresses west Coast inlets; East Coast inlets are the subject of a companion report. There are 37 inlets along that portion of Florida's West Coast commencing from Pensacola Bay Entrance to Caxambas Pass at the south end of Marco Island. Compared to those on the East Coast, most West Coast inlets have not had the deleterious effects on the adjacent beaches, yet all modified inlets without proper management have the potential of impacting unfavorably on the adjacent shorelines. Moreover, at present there is interest in opening three West Coast entrances which either have been open in the past (Midnight Pass) or which have opened occasionally (Navarre Pass and Entrance to Phillips Lake). A review of inlets in their natural condition demonstrates the presence of a shallow broad outer bar across which the longshore transport Occurs. These shallow and shifting bar features were unsuitable for navigation which in many cases has led to the deepening of the channels and fixing with one or two jetty structures. Inlets in this modified state along with inappropriate maintenance practices have the potential of placing great ero$ional stress along the adjacent beaches. Moreover. channel dredging can reduce wave sheltering of the shoreline by ebb tidal shoals and alter the equilibrium of the affected shoreline segments. The ultimate in poor sand management practice is the placement of good quality beach sand in water depths too great for the sand to reenter the longshore system under natural forces; depths of 12 ft. or less are considered appropriate for Florida in order to maintain the sand in the system. With the interference of the nearshore sediment transport processes by inlets modified for navigation, if the adjacent beaches are to be stabilized there must be an active monitoring program with commitment to placement of dredged material of beach quality on shoreline segments of documented need. Several East Coast inlets have such transfer facilities; however. the quantities of sand transferred should be increased. Although an evolution and improvement in the technical capability to manage sand resources in the vicinity of inlets is expected, an adequate capability exists today and a concerted program should be made to commence a scheduled implementation of this capability at those entrances causing greatest erosional stress on the adjacent shorelines. A brief summary review for each of the 37 West Coast inlets is presented including: a scaled aerial photograph, brief historical information, several items related to sediment losses at each inlet and special characteristics relevant to State responsibilities. For each inlet, where appropriate, the above infor~tion is utilized to develop a recommenced action. (PDF has 101 pages.)

Effect of Cattail (Typha domingensis) Extracts, Leachates, and Selected Phenolic Compounds on Rates of Oxygen Production by Salvinia (Salvinia minima)

Salvinia (Salvinia minima Willd.) is a water fern found in Florida waters, usually associated with Lemna and other small free-floating species. Due to its buoyancy and mat-forming abilities, it is spread by moving waters. In 1994, salvinia was reported to be present in 247 water bodies in the state (out of 451 surveyed public waters, Schardt 1997). It is a small, rapidly growing species that can become a nuisance due to its explosive growth rates and its ability to shade underwater life (Oliver 1993). Any efforts toward management of salvinia populations must consider that, in reasonable amounts, its presence is desirable since it plays an important role in the overall ecosystem balance. New management alternatives need to be explored besides the conventional herbicide treatments; for example, it has been shown that the growth of S. molesta can be inhibited by extracts of the tropical weed parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorus) and its purified toxin parthenin (Pande 1994, 1996). We believe that cattail, Typha spp. may be a candidate for control of S. minima infestations. Cattail is an aggressive aquatic plant, and has the ability to expand over areas that weren't previously occupied by other species (Gallardo et al. 1998a and references cited there). In South Florida, T. domingensis is a natural component of the Everglades ecosystem, but in many cases it has become the dominant marsh species, outcompeting other native plants. In Florida public waters, this cattail species is the most dominant emergent species of aquatic plants (Schardt 1997). Several factors enable it to accomplish opportunistic expansion, including size, growth habits, adaptability to changes in the surroundings, and the release of compounds that can prevent the growth and development of other species. We have been concerned in the past with the inhibitory effects of the T. domingensis extracts, and the phenolic compounds mentioned before, towards the growth and propagation of S. minima (Gallardo et al. 1998b). This investigation deals with the impact of cattail materials on the rates of oxygen production of salvinia, as determined through a series of Warburg experiments (Martin et al. 1987, Prindle and Martin 1996).

DNS and LES of turbulent channel flow with hydrophobic surface

Hydrophobic surface benefits for drag reduction. Min and Kim[1] do the first Direct Numerical Simulation on drag reduction in turbulent channel flow. And Fukagata and Kasagi[2] make some theoretical analysis based on Dean[3]'s formula and some observations in the DNS results. Using their theory, they conclude that drag reduction is possible in large Reynolds number. Both Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) are performed in our research. How the LES behaving in the turbulent channel flow with hydrophobic surface is examined. Original Smagorinsky model and its Dynamical model are used in LES. The slip velocities predicted by LES using Dynamical model are in good agreement with DNS as shown in the Figure. Although the percentage of drag reduction predicted by LES shows some discrepancies, it is in the error limit for industrial flow. First order and second order moments of LES are also examined and compared with DNS's results. The first-order moments is calculated well by LES. But there are some discrepancies of second-order moments between LES and DNS. [GRAPHICS]

The History, Present Condition, and Future of the Molluscan Fisheries of North and Central American and Europe: Volume 1, Atlantic and Gulf Coasts

This three-volume monograph represents the first major attempt in over a century to provide, on regional bases, broad surveys of the history, present condition, and future of the important shellfisheries of North and Central America and Europe. It was about 100 years ago that Ernest Ingersoll wrote extensively about several molluscan fisheries of North America (1881, 1887) and about 100 years ago that Bashford Dean wrote comprehensively about methods of oyster culture in Europe (1893). Since those were published, several reports, books, and pamphlets have been written about the biology and management of individual species or groups ofclosely related mollusk species (Galtsoff, 1964; Korringa, 1976 a, b, c; Lutz, 1980; Manzi and Castagna, 1989; Shumway, 1991). However, nothing has been written during the past century that is comparable to the approach used by Ingersoll in describing the molluscan fisheries as they existed in his day in North America or, for that matter, in Europe. (PDF file contains 224 pages.)