Pollen analysis of surface sediment off northwest Africa

Over 100 samples of recent surface sediments from the bottomn of the Atlantic Ocean offshore NW Africa between 34° and 6° N have been analysed palynologically. The objective of this study was to reveal the relation between source areas, transport systems, and resulting distribution patterns of pollen and spores in marine sediments off NW Africa, in order to lay a sound foundation for the interpretation of pollen records of marine cores from this area. The clear zonation of the NW-African vegetation (due to the distinct climatic gradient) is helpful in determining main source areas, and the presence of some major wind belts facilitates the registration of the average course of wind trajectories. The present circulation pattern is driven by the intertropical front (ITCZ) which shifts over the continent between c. 22° N (summer position) and c. 4° N (winter position) in the course of the year. Determination of the period of main pollen release and the average atmospheric circulation pattern effective at that time of the years is of prime importance. The distribution patterns in recent marine sediments of pollen of a series of genera and families appear to record climatological/ecological variables, such as the trajectory of the NE trade, January trades, African Easterly Jet (Saharan Air Layer), the northernmost and southernmost position of the intertropical convergence zone, and the extent and latitudinal situation of the NW-African vegetation belt. Pollen analysis of a series of dated deep-sea cores taken between c. 35° and the equator off NW African enable the construction of paleo-distribution maps for time slices of the past, forming a register of paleoclimatological/paleoecological information.

Analysis of symptoms of rural workers exposed to pesticides

This cross-sectional study was conducted in southern Minas Gerais, in two counties: São Gonçalo do Sapucaí and Silvianópolis. Presented as objective to verify the important variables associated with the occurrence of symptoms of subacute intoxication related to pesticides exposure. A questionnaire was dedicated to a sample of 412 workers. An analysis of non-conditional logistic regression was applied gradually. The likelihood ratio method was used to define the significant variables in the final model. Of the analysed population, 59.2% reported symptoms typical of subacute intoxication. Of the respondents, 91.5% reported knowing the deleterious effects associated with exposure to pesticides. The adjusted model was found with the significant variables: being male that presented Prevalence Odds Ratio (POR) adjusted . PORof 0.54 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.81), already hospitalized for poisoning with pesticides, POR of 3.26 (95% CI 1.08 to 9.82), living in the rural area of residence., POR of 2.17 (95% CI 1.20 to 3.93) and type of employment relationship or temporary employment, POR of 2.32 (95% CI 1.08 to 4.95).

Palynofacies analysis of sediments in the eastern Equatorial Atlantic

Analyses of the palynofacies and sporomorph thermal alteration indices (TAI) of sediments from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Sites 959 to 962 in the Cote d'Ivoire-Ghana Transform Margin, West Africa were undertaken to (1) determine the source and depositional conditions of the organic matter in the sediments, (2) refine a paleobathymetric curve derived from other data for Site 959, which drilled the most continuous sedimentary sequence from Pleistocene to Albian and (3) interpret the paleothermal history of the area. Twelve types of dispersed organic matter were identified: amorphous organic matter (AOM), marine palynomorphs, algae, resins, black debris, yellow-brown fragments, black-brown fragments, cuticles, plant tissue, wood, sporomorphs and fungi, The relative abundances of these organic matter components at each site were analyzed using cluster analysis, resulting in the identification of seven palynofacies assemblages at Site 959, five each at sites 960 and 961, and four at Site 962. Amorphous organic matter (which is chiefly marine derived), black debris and wood have played the most significant role in defining palynofacies assemblages. The palynofacies assemblages show some correlation with lithologic units, sediment sources and depositional environments. Previous palynofacies studies in passive margins have demonstrated that changes in the ratio of AOM to terrestrial organic matter are related primarily to proximal-distal positions of depositional environments relative to the shoreline. However, this assumption does not always hold true for a transform margin where tectonic factors play an important role in the organic matter distribution, at least in the early stages of evolution. Lithofacies, CCD paleodepths for the North Atlantic, trace fossil association, benthic foraminifera and palynofacies data were the criteria used for reconstructing a paleobathymetric curve for Site 959. A cyclicity in the organic matter distribution of the Upper Miocene to Lower Pliocene pelagic sediments could be related to fluctuations in productivity of biosiliceous and calcareous organisms, and sedimentation rates. A drastic increase in the amount of AOM and a decrease in black debris and wood in the carbonate and clastic rocks (Lithologic Unit IV) overlying the tectonized Albian sediments (Lithologic Unit V) at Sites 959 and 960 coincide with the presence of an unconformity. Qualitative color analysis of palynomorphs was undertaken for all sites, although the main focus was on Site 959 where detailed organic geochemical data were available. At Site 959, TAI values indicate an immature stage of organic maturation (<2) down to the black claystones of Lithologic Unit III at about 918.47 mbsf. Below this, samples show an increase with depth to a moderately mature stage (>2 except for the claystone samples between 1012.52 and 1036.5 mbsf, and one limestone sample at 1043.4 mbsf), reaching peak levels of 2.58 to 3.0 in the tectonized Albian sediments below the unconformity. These TAI values show a positive correlation with the Tma x values derived from Rock-Eval pyrolysis data. The highest values recorded in the basal tectonized units at all the sites (Sites 960-962 have mean values between 2.25 and 3.13) may be related to high heat flow during the intracontinental to syntransform basin stage in the region.

Analysis of house prices to assess economic impacts of new public transport infrastructure: Madrid metro line 12.

Transportation infrastructure is known to affect the value of real estate property by virtue of changes in accessibility. The impact of transportation facilities is highly localized as well, and it is possible that spillover effects result from the capitalization of accessibility. The objective of this study was to review the theoretical background related to spatial hedonic models and the opportunities that they provided to evaluate the effect of new transportation infrastructure. An empirical case study is presented: the Madrid Metro Line 12, known as Metrosur, in the region of Madrid, Spain. The effect of proximity to metro stations on housing prices was evaluated. The analysis took into account a host of variables, including structure, location, and neighborhood and made use of three modeling approaches: linear regression estimation with ordinary least squares, spatial error, and spatial lag. The results indicated that better accessibility to Metrosur stations had a positive impact on real estate values and that the effect was marked in cases in which a house was for sale. The results also showed the presence of submarkets, which were well defined by geographic boundaries, and transport fares, which implied that the economic benefits differed across municipalities.

Discriminant analysis of the specialty of elite cyclist

The different demands of competition coupled with the morphological and physiological characteristics of cyclists have led to the appearance of cycling specialities. The aims of this study were to determine the differences in the anthropometric and physiological features in road cyclists with different specialities, and to develop a multivariate model to classify these specialities and predict which speciality may be appropriate to a given cyclist. Twenty male, elite amateur cyclists were classified by their trainers as either flat terrain riders, hill climbers, or all-terrain riders. Anthropometric and cardiorespiratory studies were then undertaken. The results were analysed by MANOVA and two discriminant tests. Most differences between the speciality groups were of an anthropometric nature. The only cardiorespiratory variable that differed significantly (p < 0.05) was maximum oxygen consumption with respect to body weight (VO2max/kg). The first discriminant test classified 100% of the cyclists within their true speciality; the second, which took into account only anthropometric variables, correctly classified 75%. The first discriminant model allows the likely speciality of still non-elite cyclists to be predicted from a small number of variables, and may therefore help in their specific training.

Analysis of Hail and Temperature Series for Peninsular Spain

Hail is a serious concern for agriculture on the Iberian Peninsula. Hailstorms affect crop yield and/or quality to a degree that depends on the crop species and the phenological time. In Europe, Spain is one of the countries that experience relatively high agricultural losses related to hailstorms. It is of high interest to study models that can support calculations of the probabilities of economic losses due to hail damage and of the tendency over time for such losses. Some studies developed in France and the Netherdlands show that the summer mean temperature was highly correlated with a yearly hail severity index developed from hailrelated parameters obtained for insurance purposes. Meanwhile, other studies in the USA point out that a highly significant correlation between both is not possible to find due to high climatic variability. The aim of this work is to test the correlation between average minimum temperatures and hail damage intensity over the Spanish Iberian Peninsula. With this purpose, correlation analyses on both variables were performed for the 47 Spanish provinces (as individuals and single set) and for all crops and four individual crops: grapes, wheat, barley and winter grains. Suitable crop insurance data are available from 1981 until 2007 and based on this period, temperature data were obtained. This study does not confirm the results previously obtained for France and the Netherlands that relate observed hail damage to the average minimum temperature. The reason for this difference and the nature of the cases observed are discussed.

A robust numerical framework for the analysis of material failure of fibre reinforced soft tissue

In this work, robustness and stability of continuum damage models applied to material failure in soft tissues are addressed. In the implicit damage models equipped with softening, the presence of negative eigenvalues in the tangent elemental matrix degrades the condition number of the global matrix, leading to a reduction of the computational performance of the numerical model. Two strategies have been adapted from literature to improve the aforementioned computational performance degradation: the IMPL-EX integration scheme [Oliver,2006], which renders the elemental matrix contribution definite positive, and arclength-type continuation methods [Carrera,1994], which allow to capture the unstable softening branch in brittle ruptures. The IMPL-EX integration scheme has as a major drawback the need to use small time steps to keep numerical error below an acceptable value. A convergence study, limiting the maximum allowed increment of internal variables in the damage model, is presented. Finally, numerical simulation of failure problems with fibre reinforced materials illustrates the performance of the adopted methodology.

First steps in the discovery of patterns in the academic results of telecommunication engineering students in the subjects Analysis of Circuits and Mathematics

In this paper, the results of six years of research in engineering education, in the application of the European Higher Education Area (EHEA) to improve the performance of the students in the subject Analysis of Circuits of Telecommunication Engineering, are analysed taking into consideration the fact that there would be hidden variables that both separate students into subgroups and show the connection among several basic subjects such as Analysis of Circuits (AC) and Mathematics (Math). The discovery of these variables would help us to explain the characteristics of the students through the teaching and learning methodology, and would show that there are some characteristics that instructors do not take into account but that are of paramount importance

Towards resource usage analysis of miniZinc models

We present a method for the static resource usage analysis of MiniZinc models. The analysis can infer upper bounds on the usage that a MiniZinc model will make of some resources such as the number of constraints of a given type (equality, disequality, global constraints, etc.), the number of variables (search variables or temporary variables), or the size of the expressions before calling the solver. These bounds are obtained from the models independently of the concrete input data (the instance data) and are in general functions of sizes of such data. In our approach, MiniZinc models are translated into Ciao programs which are then analysed by the CiaoPP system. CiaoPP includes a parametric analysis framework for resource usage in which the user can define resources and express the resource usage of library procedures (and certain program construets) by means of a language of assertions. We present the approach and report on a preliminary implementation, which shows the feasibility of the approach, and provides encouraging results.

Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain

Abstract This paper describes a two-part methodology for managing the risk posed by water supply variability to irrigated agriculture. First, an econometric model is used to explain the variation in the production value of irrigated agriculture. The explanatory variables include an index of irrigation water availability (surface storage levels), a price index representative of the crops grown in each geographical unit, and a time variable. The model corrects for autocorrelation and it is applied to 16 representative Spanish provinces in terms of irrigated agriculture. In the second part, the fitted models are used for the economic evaluation of drought risk. In flow variability in the hydrological system servicing each province is used to perform ex-ante evaluations of economic output for the upcoming irrigation season. The model?s error and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the reservoirs? storage variations are used to generate Monte Carlo (Latin Hypercube) simulations of agricultural output 7 and 3 months prior to the irrigation season. The results of these simulations illustrate the different risk profiles of each management unit, which depend on farm productivity and on the probability distribution function of water in flow to reservoirs. The potential for ex-ante drought impact assessments is demonstrated. By complementing hydrological models, this method can assist water managers and decisionmakers in managing reservoirs.

Improving the analysis of road pricing acceptability surveys by using hybrid models

Several international studies have analyzed the acceptability of road pricing schemes by means of an attitude survey in combination with the results of a stated choice experiment using both a descriptive analysis and a discrete-choice model with binary choice (?accept? or ?not accept? the toll). However, the use of hybrid discrete choice models constitutes an innovative alternative for integrating subjective attitudes and perceptions deriving from the survey of attitudes with the more objective variables from the stated choice experiment. This paper analyzes the results of applying these models to measure the acceptability of interurban road pricing among different groups of stakeholders (road freight and passenger operators, highway concessionaires, and associations of private car users) with qualitatively significant opinions on road pricing measures. Our results show that hybrid models are better suited to explaining the acceptability of a road pricing scheme by different groups of stakeholders than a separate analysis of the survey of attitudes and a discrete-choice model applied on a stated choice experiment. A particular finding was that the strong psycho-social latent variable of the perception of fairness explains the rejection or acceptance of a toll scheme by road stakeholders.

Analysis of road safety incentives in highway concessions in Spain

Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are mostly implemented for three reasons: to circumvent budgetary constraints, encourage efficiency and improvement of quality in the provision of public infrastructure. One of the ways of reaching the latter objective is by the introduction of performance-based standards tied to bonuses and penalties to reward or punish the performance of the contractor. These performance based standards often refer to different aspects such as technical, environmental and safety issues. This paper focuses on the implementation of safety based incentives in PPPs. The main aim of this paper is to analyze whether the incentives to improve road safety in PPPs are effective in improving safety ratios in Spain. To this end, negative binomial regression models have been applied using information from the Spanish high capacity network in 2006. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles in the highway, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

Analysis of the Technical Efficiency of Urban Bus Services in Spain Based on SBM Models

During the first decade of the new millennium, fueled by the economic development in Spain, urban bus services were extended. Since the years 2008 and 2009, the root of the economic crisis, the improvement of these services is at risk due to economic problems. In this paper, the technical efficiency of the main urban bus companies in Spain during the 2004–2009 period are studied using SBM (slack-based measures) models and by establishing the slacks in the services' production inputs. The influence of a series of exogenous variables on the operation of the different services is also analyzed. It is concluded that only the 24% of the case studies are efficient, and some urban form variables can explain part of the inefficiency. The methodology used allows studying the inefficiency in a disaggregated way that other DEA (data envelopment analysis) models do not.

A robust numerical framework to the analysis of material failure of fibre reinforced soft tissue

In this work, robustness and stability of continuum damage models applied to material failure in soft tissues are addressed. In the implicit damage models equipped with softening, the presence of negative eigenvalues in the tangent elemental matrix degrades the condition number of the global matrix, leading to a reduction of the computational performance of the numerical model. Two strategies have been adapted from literature to improve the aforementioned computational performance degradation: the IMPL-EX integration scheme [Oliver,2006], which renders the elemental matrix contribution definite positive, and arclength-type continuation methods [Carrera,1994], which allow to capture the unstable softening branch in brittle ruptures. The IMPL-EX integration scheme has as a major drawback the need to use small time steps to keep numerical error below an acceptable value. A convergence study, limiting the maximum allowed increment of internal variables in the damage model, is presented. Finally, numerical simulation of failure problems with fibre reinforced materials illustrates the performance of the adopted methodology.