When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?

In the Essence project a 17-member ensemble simulation of climate change in response to the SRES A1b scenario has been carried out using the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. The relatively large size of the ensemble makes it possible to accurately investigate changes in extreme values of climate variables. Here we focus on the annual-maximum 2m-temperature and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the simulated values and investigate the development of the parameters of this distribution. Over most land areas both the location and the scale parameter increase. Consequently the 100-year return values increase faster than the average temperatures. A comparison of simulated 100-year return values for the present climate with observations (station data and reanalysis) shows that the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, as well as other models, overestimates extreme temperature values. After correcting for this bias, it still shows values in excess of 50°C in Australia, India, the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel and equatorial and subtropical South America at the end of the century.

Quantitative analysis of remote gas temperatures and concentrations from their infrared emission spectra

Techniques for obtaining quantitative values of the temperatures and concentrations of remote hot gaseous effluents from their measured passive emission spectra have been examined in laboratory experiments and on field trials. These emission spectra were obtained using an adapted FTIR spectrometer with 0.25 cm-1 spectral resolution. The CO2 and H2O vapour content in the plume from a 55 m smoke stack and the temperature of these gases were obtained by comparing the measured emission spectra with those modelled using the HITRAN atmospheric transmission database. The spatial distributions of CO2, CO and unburnt CH4 in a laboratory methane flame were reconstructed tomographically using a matrix inversion technique.

Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures

The importance of temperature in the determination of the yield of an annual crop (groundnut; Arachis hypogaea L. in India) was assessed. Simulations from a regional climate model (PRECIS) were used with a crop model (GLAM) to examine crop growth under simulated current (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climates. Two processes were examined: the response of crop duration to mean temperature and the response of seed-set to extremes of temperature. The relative importance of, and interaction between, these two processes was examined for a number of genotypic characteristics, which were represented by using different values of crop model parameters derived from experiments. The impact of mean and extreme temperatures varied geographically, and depended upon the simulated genotypic properties. High temperature stress was not a major determinant of simulated yields in the current climate, but affected the mean and variability of yield under climate change in two regions which had contrasting statistics of daily maximum temperature. Changes in mean temperature had a similar impact on mean yield to that of high temperature stress in some locations and its effects were more widespread. Where the optimal temperature for development was exceeded, the resulting increase in duration in some simulations fully mitigated the negative impacts of extreme temperatures when sufficient water was available for the extended growing period. For some simulations the reduction in mean yield between the current and future climates was as large as 70%, indicating the importance of genotypic adaptation to changes in both means and extremes of temperature under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Acclimation of photosynthesis to elevated CO2 in onion (Allium cepa) grown at a range of temperatures

Onion (Allium cepa) was grown in the field within temperature gradient tunnels (providing about -2.5degreesC to +2.5degreesC from outside temperatures) maintained at either 374 or 532 mumol mol(-1) CO2. Plant leaf area was determined non-destructively at 7 day intervals until the time of bulbing in 12 combinations of temperature and CO2 concentration. Gas exchange was measured in each plot at the time of bulbing, and the carbohydrate content of the leaf (source) and bulb (sink) was determined. Maximum rate of leaf area expansion increased with mean temperature. Leaf area duration and maximum rate of leaf area expansion were not significantly affected by CO2. The light-saturated rates of leaf photosynthesis (A(sat)) were greater in plants grown at normal than at elevated CO2 concentrations at the same measurement CO2 concentration. Acclimation of photosynthesis decreased with an increase in growth temperature, and with an increase in leaf nitrogen content at elevated CO2. The ratio of intercellular to atmospheric CO2 (C-i/C-a ratio) was 7.4% less for plants grown at elevated compared with normal CO2. A(sat) in plants grown at elevated CO2 was less than in plants grown at normal CO2 when compared at the same C-i Hence, acclimation of photosynthesis was due both to stomatal acclimation and to limitations to biochemical CO2 fixation. Carbohydrate content of the onion bulbs was greater at elevated than at normal CO2. In contrast, carbohydrate content was less at elevated compared with normal CO2 in the leaf sections in which CO2 exchange was measured at the same developmental stage. Therefore, acclimation of photosynthesis in fully expanded onion leaves was detected despite the absence of localised carbohydrate accumulation in these field-grown crops.

Interference competition and high temperature reduce the ‘virulence’ of fig wasps and contribute to stability of a fig-wasp mutualism

Fig trees are pollinated by fig wasps, which also oviposit in female flowers. The wasp larvae gall and eat developing seeds. Although fig trees benefit from allowing wasps to oviposit, because the wasp offspring disperse pollen, figs must prevent wasps from ovipositing in all flowers, or seed production would cease, and the mutualism would go extinct. In Ficus racemosa, we find that syconia (‘figs’) that have few foundresses (ovipositing wasps) are underexploited in the summer (few seeds, few galls, many empty ovules) and are overexploited in the winter (few seeds, many galls, few empty ovules). Conversely, syconia with many foundresses produce intermediate numbers of galls and seeds, regardless of season. We use experiments to explain these patterns, and thus, to explain how this mutualism is maintained. In the hot summer, wasps suffer short lifespans and therefore fail to oviposit in many flowers. In contrast, cooler temperatures in the winter permit longer wasp lifespans, which in turn allows most flowers to be exploited by the wasps. However, even in winter, only in syconia that happen to have few foundresses are most flowers turned into galls. In syconia with higher numbers of foundresses, interference competition reduces foundress lifespans, which reduces the proportion of flowers that are galled. We further show that syconia encourage the entry of multiple foundresses by delaying ostiole closure. Taken together, these factors allow fig trees to reduce galling in the wasp-benign winter and boost galling (and pollination) in the wasp-stressing summer. Interference competition has been shown to reduce virulence in pathogenic bacteria. Our results show that interference also maintains cooperation in a classic, cooperative symbiosis, thus linking theories of virulence and mutualism. More generally, our results reveal how frequency-dependent population regulation can occur in the fig-wasp mutualism, and how a host species can ‘set the rules of the game’ to ensure mutualistic behavior in its symbionts.

Acclimation of photosynthesis to elevated CO2 in onion (allium cepa) grown at a range of temperatures

Onion (Allium cepa) was grown in the field within temperature gradient tunnels (providing about -2.5 degrees C to +2.5 degrees C from outside temperatures) maintained at either 374 or 532 mumol mol (-1) CO2. Plant leaf area was determined non-destructively at 7 day intervals until the time of bulbing in 12 combinations of temperature and CO2 concentration. Gas exchange was measured in each plot at the time of bulbing, and the carbohydrate content of the leaf (source) and bulb (sink) was determined. Maximum rate of leaf area expansion increased with mean temperature. Leaf area duration and maximum rate of leaf area expansion were not significantly affected by CO2. The light-saturated rates of leaf photosynthesis (A(sat)) were greater in plants grown at normal than at elevated CO2 concentrations at the same measurement CO2 concentration. Acclimation of photosynthesis decreased with an increase in growth temperature, and with an increase in leaf nitrogen content at elevated CO2. The ratio of intercellular to atmospheric CO2 (C-i/C-a ratio) was 7.4% less for plants grown at elevated compared with normal CO2. A(sat) in plants grown at elevated CO2 was less than in plants grown at normal CO2 when compared at the same C-i Hence, acclimation of photosynthesis was due both to stomatal acclimation and to limitations to biochemical CO2 fixation. Carbohydrate content of the onion bulbs was greater at elevated than at normal CO2. In contrast, carbohydrate content was less at elevated compared with normal CO2 in the leaf sections in which CO2 exchange was measured at the same developmental stage. Therefore, acclimation of photosynthesis in fully expanded onion leaves was detected despite the absence of localised carbohydrate accumulation in these field-grown crops.

Description of a "Phoenix" phenomenon in the growth of Campylobacter jejuni at temperatures close to the minimum for growth

When Campylobacter jejuni cultures that had been grown in broth at 39degreesC were subcultured into fresh medium at 30degreesC, there was a transient period of growth followed by a decline in viable-cell numbers before growth resumed once more. We propose that this complex behavior is the net effect of the growth of inoculum cells followed by a loss of viability due to oxidative stress and the subsequent emergence of a spontaneously arising mutant population that takes over the culture.

Extensional rheology and stability of gas cell walls in bread doughs at elevated temperatures in relation to breadmaking performance

The rheological properties of gas cell walls in bread doughs are considered to be important in relation to their stability and gas retention during proof and baking. Large deformation rheological properties of gas cell walls were measured using biaxial extension for a number of doughs of varying breadmaking quality at constant strain rate and elevated temperatures of 25-60degreesC. Strain hardening and failure strain of cell walls both decreased with temperature, with cell walls in good breadmaking doughs remaining stable and retaining their strain hardening properties at higher temperatures (60degreesC), while the cell walls of poor breadmaking doughs became unstable at lower temperatures (45-50degreesC) and had lower strain hardening. Strain hardening measured at 50degreesC gave good correlations with baking volume, with the best correlations achieved between rheological measurements and baking tests that used similar mixing conditions. As predicted by the considered failure criterion, a strain hardening value of I defines a region below which gas cell walls become unstable, and discriminates well between the baking quality of a range of commercial flour blends of varying quality. This indicates that the stability of gas cell walls during baking is strongly related to strain hardening properties, and that extensional rheological measurements can be used as indicators of baking quality.

Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of stratospheric temperatures and their trends for the recent past

Temperature results from multi-decadal simulations of coupled chemistry climate models for the recent past are analyzed using multi-linear regression including a trend, solar cycle, lower stratospheric tropical wind, and volcanic aerosol terms. The climatology of the models for recent years is in good agreement with observations for the troposphere but the model results diverge from each other and from observations in the stratosphere. Overall, the models agree better with observations than in previous assessments, primarily because of corrections in the observed temperatures. The annually averaged global and polar temperature trends simulated by the models are generally in agreement with revised satellite observations and radiosonde data over much of their altitude range. In the global average, the model trends underpredict the radiosonde data slightly at the top of the observed range. Over the Antarctic some models underpredict the temperature trend in the lower stratosphere, while others overpredict the trends

Isomeric olefin tetracarbonyl complexes of tungsten(I): an infrared spectroelectrochemical study at low temperatures

In situ electrolysis within an optically transparent thin-layer electrochemical (OTTLE) cell was applied at 293-243 K in combination with FTIR spectroscopy to monitor spectral changes in the carbonyl stretching region accompanying oxidation of four tetracarbonyl olefin complexes of tungsten(0), viz., trans-[W(CO)(4)(eta(2)-ethene)(2)], trans-[W(CO)(4)(eta(2)-norbornene)(2)], [W(CO)(4)(eta(4)-cycloocta-1,5-diene)], and [W(CO)(4)(eta(4)-norbornadiene)]. In all cases, the one-electron-oxidized radical cations (17-electron complexes) have been identified by their characteristic nu(CO) patterns. For the bidentate diene ligands, the cis stereochemistry is essentially fixed in both the 18- and 17-electron complexes. The radical cation of the trans-bis(ethene) complex was observed only at 243 K, while at room temperature it isomerized rapidly to the corresponding cis-isomer. The thermal stability of the three studied radical cations in the cis configuration correlates with the relative strength of the W-CO bonds in the positions trans to the olefin ligand, which are more affected by the oxidation than the axial W-CO bonds. For the bulky norbornene ligands, their trans configuration in the bis(norbornene) complex remains preserved after the oxidation in the whole temperature range studied. The limited thermal stability of the radical cations of the trans-bis(alkene) complexes is ascribed to dissociation of the alkene ligands. The spectroelectrochemical results are in very good agreement with data obtained earlier by DFT (B3LYP) calculations.

Synthesis, spectroscopy and spectroelectrochemistry of chlorocarbonyl {1,2-bis[(2,6-diisopropylphenyl)imino]-acenaphthene-kappa(2)-N,N '}rhodium (I)

Reaction of the dinuclear complex [{Rh(CO)(2)}(2) (mu-Cl)(2)]with an alpha-diimine ligand, 1,2- bis[(2,6-diisopropylphenyl) imino] acenaphthene (iPr(2)Ph-bian), produces square-planar [RhCl(CO)(iPr(2)Ph-bian)]. For the first time, 2: 1 and 1: 1 alpha-diimine/dimer reactions yielded the same product. The rigidity of iPr(2)Ph-bian together with its flexible electronic properties and steric requirements of the 2,6-diisopropyl substituents on the benzene rings allow rapid closure of a chelate bond and replacement of a CO ligand instead of chloride. A resonance Raman study of [RhCl(CO)(iPr(2)Ph-bian)] has revealed a predominant Rh-to-bian charge transfer (MLCT) character of electronic transitions in the visible spectral region. The stabilisation of [RhCl(CO)(iPr(2)Ph-bian)] in lower oxidation states by the pi-acceptor iPr(2)Ph-bian ligand was investigated in situ by UV-VIS, IR and EPR spectroelectrochemistry at variable temperatures. The construction of the novel UV-VIS-NIR-IR low-temperature OTTLE cell used in these studies is described in the last part of the paper.

Measurement of infrared multilayer filters at temperatures down to 4 deg K

Measurement is reported at 4 deg K (and blocked transmission below 10-5) of PbTe/ZnS thin-film filters deposited on Ge substrates. The reduced carrier-absorption which is obtained by cooling these PbTe films is found to accord with simple theory. Advantage for various high-performance multilayers by cooling is significant at the longer wavelengths, and has been verified.

Ultra High Temperatures #1

Ultra High Temperature #1, initiated by Rebecca Bibby forms the first in an ongoing project which explores the realms of collaboration, performance, writing and publication as artistic vehicle of production, dispersion and progression. With Bibby's text -that re-fictions the futuristic projections of technosexuality in Metropolis (1927)- at its core was launched, printed, compiled and distributed in a live performance by POLLYFIBRE at Eastside Projects in Birmingham. The limited edition printed publication was designed by An Endless Supply whose Risograph stencil printer was used as an instrument in the performed production of the text. As a crude avatar of Rebecca Bibby’s practice, Aikon-II, a mechanically programmed signature machine automatically signed each copy of the text during the performance. POLLYFIBRE's ‘flat-pack’ costumes were on display throughout the duration of the exhibition. POLLYFIBRE is a performance project created by Christine Ellison.

Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach

We explore the potential for making statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in a perfect model analysis, with a focus on the Atlantic basin. Various statistical methods (Lagged correlations, Linear Inverse Modelling and Constructed Analogue) are found to have significant skill in predicting the internal variability of Atlantic SSTs for up to a decade ahead in control integrations of two different global climate models (GCMs), namely HadCM3 and HadGEM1. Statistical methods which consider non-local information tend to perform best, but which is the most successful statistical method depends on the region considered, GCM data used and prediction lead time. However, the Constructed Analogue method tends to have the highest skill at longer lead times. Importantly, the regions of greatest prediction skill can be very different to regions identified as potentially predictable from variance explained arguments. This finding suggests that significant local decadal variability is not necessarily a prerequisite for skillful decadal predictions, and that the statistical methods are capturing some of the dynamics of low-frequency SST evolution. In particular, using data from HadGEM1, significant skill at lead times of 6–10 years is found in the tropical North Atlantic, a region with relatively little decadal variability compared to interannual variability. This skill appears to come from reconstructing the SSTs in the far north Atlantic, suggesting that the more northern latitudes are optimal for SST observations to improve predictions. We additionally explore whether adding sub-surface temperature data improves these decadal statistical predictions, and find that, again, it depends on the region, prediction lead time and GCM data used. Overall, we argue that the estimated prediction skill motivates the further development of statistical decadal predictions of SSTs as a benchmark for current and future GCM-based decadal climate predictions.