Temporal differences across a bio-geographical boundary reveal slow response of sub-littoral benthos to climate change

The English Channel is located at the biogeographical boundary between the northern Boreal and southern Lusitanian biozones and therefore represents an important area to study the effects of global warming on marine organisms. While the consequences of climatic change in the western English Channel have been relatively well documented for fish, plankton and inter-tidal benthic communities, data highlighting the same effects on the distribution of sub-littoral benthic organisms does, to date, not exist. The present study resurveyed a subset of sites originally surveyed from 1958 to 1959 along the UK coast of the English Channel. The main aims of this resurvey were to describe the present status of benthic communities and to investigate potential temporal changes, in particular distributional changes in western stenothermal ‘cold’ water and southern Lusitanian ‘warm’ water species. The increase in water temperature observed since the historic survey was predicted to have caused a contraction in the distribution of cold water species and an extension in the distribution of warm water species. The temporal comparison did not show any clear broad-scale distributional changes in benthic communities consistent with these predictions. Nevertheless, 2 warm water species, the sting winkle Ocenebra erinacea and the introduced American slipper limpet Crepidula fornicata, did show range extensions and increased occurrence, possibly related to climatic warming. Similarly, warm water species previously not recorded by the historic survey were found. The absence of broad-scale temporal differences in sub-tidal communities in response to climatic warming has been reported for other areas and may indicate that these communities respond far more slowly to environmental changes compared to plankton, fish and inter-tidal organisms.

Temporal differences across a bio-geographical boundary reveal slow response of sub-littoral benthos to climate change

The English Channel is located at the biogeographical boundary between the northern Boreal and southern Lusitanian biozones and therefore represents an important area to study the effects of global warming on marine organisms. While the consequences of climatic change in the western English Channel have been relatively well documented for fish, plankton and inter-tidal benthic communities, data highlighting the same effects on the distribution of sub-littoral benthic organisms does, to date, not exist. The present study resurveyed a subset of sites originally surveyed from 1958 to 1959 along the UK coast of the English Channel. The main aims of this resurvey were to describe the present status of benthic communities and to investigate potential temporal changes, in particular distributional changes in western stenothermal ‘cold’ water and southern Lusitanian ‘warm’ water species. The increase in water temperature observed since the historic survey was predicted to have caused a contraction in the distribution of cold water species and an extension in the distribution of warm water species. The temporal comparison did not show any clear broad-scale distributional changes in benthic communities consistent with these predictions. Nevertheless, 2 warm water species, the sting winkle Ocenebra erinacea and the introduced American slipper limpet Crepidula fornicata, did show range extensions and increased occurrence, possibly related to climatic warming. Similarly, warm water species previously not recorded by the historic survey were found. The absence of broad-scale temporal differences in sub-tidal communities in response to climatic warming has been reported for other areas and may indicate that these communities respond far more slowly to environmental changes compared to plankton, fish and inter-tidal organisms.

Future fish distributions constrained by depth in warming seas

European continental shelf seas have experienced intense warming over the past 30 years1. In the North Sea, fish have been comprehensively monitored throughout this period and resulting data provide a unique record of changes in distribution and abundance in response to climate change2, 3. We use these data to demonstrate the remarkable power of generalized additive models (GAMs), trained on data earlier in the time series, to reliably predict trends in distribution and abundance in later years. Then, challenging process-based models that predict substantial and ongoing poleward shifts of cold-water species4, 5, we find that GAMs coupled with climate projections predict future distributions of demersal (bottom-dwelling) fish species over the next 50 years will be strongly constrained by availability of habitat of suitable depth. This will lead to pronounced changes in community structure, species interactions and commercial fisheries, unless individual acclimation or population-level evolutionary adaptations enable fish to tolerate warmer conditions or move to previously uninhabitable locations.

Future fish distributions constrained by depth in warming seas

European continental shelf seas have experienced intense warming over the past 30 years1. In the North Sea, fish have been comprehensively monitored throughout this period and resulting data provide a unique record of changes in distribution and abundance in response to climate change2, 3. We use these data to demonstrate the remarkable power of generalized additive models (GAMs), trained on data earlier in the time series, to reliably predict trends in distribution and abundance in later years. Then, challenging process-based models that predict substantial and ongoing poleward shifts of cold-water species4, 5, we find that GAMs coupled with climate projections predict future distributions of demersal (bottom-dwelling) fish species over the next 50 years will be strongly constrained by availability of habitat of suitable depth. This will lead to pronounced changes in community structure, species interactions and commercial fisheries, unless individual acclimation or population-level evolutionary adaptations enable fish to tolerate warmer conditions or move to previously uninhabitable locations.

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

Modelling the effectiveness of grass buffer strips in managing muddy floods under a changing climate

Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios, muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning. 

Climate change and the evolution of loggerhead sex-ratio in Cabo Verde

[EN] Global warming can affect nesting success of sea turtles due to the rise of the sea level and the subsequent increased inundation or erosion of nesting beaches. Moreover, it can reduce male production to levels that can alter reproduction due to their temperature dependant sex determination (TSD). Now, mean nest temperatures all around the world predict a predominance of female hatchlings, and this trend may increase with global warming in the next decades.

Insights to Key Questions about Climate Change

Illinois State Water Survey

Thermal Tolerance of the Coffee Berry Borer Hypothenemus hampei: Predictions of Climate Change Impact on a Tropical Insect Pest

Coffee is predicted to be severely affected by climate change. We determined the thermal tolerance of the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei, the most devastating pest of coffee worldwide, and make inferences on the possible effects of climate change using climatic data from Colombia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. For this, the effect of eight temperature regimes (15, 20, 23, 25, 27, 30, 33 and 35 degrees C) on the bionomics of H. hampei was studied. Successful egg to adult development occurred between 20-30 degrees C. Using linear regression and a modified Logan model, the lower and upper thresholds for development were estimated at 14.9 and 32 degrees C, respectively. In Kenya and Colombia, the number of pest generations per year was considerably and positively correlated with the warming tolerance. Analysing 32 years of climatic data from Jimma (Ethiopia) revealed that before 1984 it was too cold for H. hampei to complete even one generation per year, but thereafter, because of rising temperatures in the area, 1-2 generations per year/coffee season could be completed. Calculated data on warming tolerance and thermal safety margins of H. hampei for the three East African locations showed considerably high variability compared to the Colombian site. The model indicates that for every 1 degrees C rise in thermal optimum (T(opt)), the maximum intrinsic rate of increase (r(max)) will increase by an average of 8.5%. The effects of climate change on the further range of H. hampei distribution and possible adaption strategies are discussed. Abstracts in Spanish and French are provided as supplementary material Abstract S1 and Abstract S2.

Global change and climate-driven invasion of the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) along European coasts: a bioenergetics modelling approach

Aim The spread of non-indigenous species in marine ecosystems world-wide is one of today's most serious environmental concerns. Using mechanistic modelling, we investigated how global change relates to the invasion of European coasts by a non-native marine invertebrate, the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Location Bourgneuf Bay on the French Atlantic coast was considered as the northern boundary of C. gigas expansion at the time of its introduction to Europe in the 1970s. From this latitudinal reference, variations in the spatial distribution of the C. gigas reproductive niche were analysed along the north-western European coast from Gibraltar to Norway. Methods The effects of environmental variations on C. gigas physiology and phenology were studied using a bioenergetics model based on Dynamic Energy Budget theory. The model was forced with environmental time series including in situ phytoplankton data, and satellite data of sea surface temperature and suspended particulate matter concentration. Results Simulation outputs were successfully validated against in situ oyster growth data. In Bourgneuf Bay, the rise in seawater temperature and phytoplankton concentration has increased C. gigas reproductive effort and led to precocious spawning periods since the 1960s. At the European scale, seawater temperature increase caused a drastic northward shift (1400 km within 30 years) in the C. gigas reproductive niche and optimal thermal conditions for early life stage development. Main conclusions We demonstrated that the poleward expansion of the invasive species C. gigas is related to global warming and increase in phytoplankton abundance. The combination of mechanistic bioenergetics modelling with in situ and satellite environmental data is a valuable framework for ecosystem studies. It offers a generic approach to analyse historical geographical shifts and to predict the biogeographical changes expected to occur in a climate-changing world.

Harmonization of Life Cycle Climate Performance and Its Improvements for Heat Pump Applications

Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) is an evaluation method by which heating, ventilation, air conditioning and refrigeration systems can be evaluated for their global warming impact over the course of their complete life cycle. LCCP is more inclusive than previous metrics such as Total Equivalent Warming Impact. It is calculated as the sum of direct and indirect emissions generated over the lifetime of the system “from cradle to grave”. Direct emissions include all effects from the release of refrigerants into the atmosphere during the lifetime of the system. This includes annual leakage and losses during the disposal of the unit. The indirect emissions include emissions from the energy consumption during manufacturing process, lifetime operation, and disposal of the system. This thesis proposes a standardized approach to the use of LCCP and traceable data sources for all aspects of the calculation. An equation is proposed that unifies the efforts of previous researchers. Data sources are recommended for average values for all LCCP inputs. A residential heat pump sample problem is presented illustrating the methodology. The heat pump is evaluated at five U.S. locations in different climate zones. An excel tool was developed for residential heat pumps using the proposed method. The primary factor in the LCCP calculation is the energy consumption of the system. The effects of advanced vapor compression cycles are then investigated for heat pump applications. Advanced cycle options attempt to reduce the energy consumption in various ways. There are three categories of advanced cycle options: subcooling cycles, expansion loss recovery cycles and multi-stage cycles. The cycles selected for research are the suction line heat exchanger cycle, the expander cycle, the ejector cycle, and the vapor injection cycle. The cycles are modeled using Engineering Equation Solver and the results are applied to the LCCP methodology. The expander cycle, ejector cycle and vapor injection cycle are effective in reducing LCCP of a residential heat pump by 5.6%, 8.2% and 10.5%, respectively in Phoenix, AZ. The advanced cycles are evaluated with the use of low GWP refrigerants and are capable of reducing the LCCP of a residential heat by 13.7%, 16.3% and 18.6% using a refrigerant with a GWP of 10. To meet the U.S. Department of Energy’s goal of reducing residential energy use by 40% by 2025 with a proportional reduction in all other categories of residential energy consumption, a reduction in the energy consumption of a residential heat pump of 34.8% with a refrigerant GWP of 10 for Phoenix, AZ is necessary. A combination of advanced cycle, control options and low GWP refrigerants are necessary to meet this goal.

Small pelagics in a changing ocean : Biological responses of sardine early stages to warming

Small pelagic fishes are known to respond rapidly to changes in ocean climate. In this study, we evaluate the effects of future environmental warming (+2°C) during the early ontogeny of the European sardine, Sardina pilchardus. Warming reduced the survival of 30-day-old larvae by half. Length at hatching increased with temperature as expected, but no significant effect was observed on the length and growth at 30 days post-hatching. Warming did not significantly affect the thermal tolerance of sardine larvae, even though the mean lethal temperature increased by 1°C. In the warm conditions, sardine larvae showed signs of thermal stress, indicated by a pronounced increase in larval metabolism (Q 10 = 7.9) and a 45% increase in the heat shock response. Lipid peroxidation was not significantly affected by the higher temperature, even though the mean value doubled. Warming did not affect the time larvae spent swimming, but decreased by 36% the frequency of prey attacks. Given the key role of these small pelagics in the trophic dynamics off the Western Iberian upwelling ecosystem, the negative effects of warming on the early stages may have important implications for fish recruitment and ecosystem structure.