851 resultados para Change Impact


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This paper alms at illustrating the impact of spatial difference scheme and spatial resolution on the performance of Arakawa A-D grids in physical space. Linear shallow water equations are discretized and forecasted on Arakawa A-D grids for 120-minute using the ordinary second-order (M and fourth-order (C4) finite difference schemes with the grid spacing being 100 km, 10 km and I km, respectively. Then the forecasted results are compared with the exact solution, the result indicates that when the grid spacing is I kin, the inertial gravity wave can be simulated on any grid with the same results from C2 scheme or C4 scheme, namely the impact of variable configuration is neglectable; while the inertial gravity wave is simulated with lengthened grid spacing, the effects of different variable configurations are different. However, whether for C2 scheme or for C4 scheme, the RMS is minimal (maximal) on C (D) grid. At the same time it is also shown that when the difference accuracy increases from C2 scheme to C4 scheme, the resulted forecasts do not uniformly decrease, which is validated by the change of the group A velocity relative error from C2 scheme to C4 scheme. Therefore, the impact of the grid spacing is more important than that of the difference accuracy on the performance of Arakawa A-D grid.

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The relationship between monthly sea-level data measured at stations located along the Chinese coast and concurrent large-scale atmospheric forcing in the period 1960-1990 is examined. It is found that sea-level varies quite coherently along the whole coast, despite the geographical extension of the station set. A canonical correlation analysis between sea-level and sea-level pressure (SLP) indicates that a great part of the sea-level variability can be explained by the action of the wind stress on the ocean surface. The relationship between sea-level and sea-level pressure is analyzed separately for the summer and winter half-years. In winter, one factor affecting sea-level variability at all stations is the SLP contrast between the continent and the Pacific Ocean, hence the intensity of the winter Monsoon circulation. Another factor that affects coherently all stations is the intensity of the zonal circulation at mid-latitudes. In the summer half year, on the other hand, the influence of SLP on sea-level is spatially less coherent: the stations in the Yellow Sea are affected by a more localized circulation anomaly pattern, whereas the rest of the stations is more directly connected to the intensity of the zonal circulation. Based on this analysis, statistical models (different for summer and winter) to hindcast coastal sealevel anomalies from the large-scale SLP field are formulated. These models have been tested by fitting their internal parameters in a test period and reproducing reasonably the sea-level evolution in an independent period. These statistical models are also used to estimate the contribution of the changes of the atmospheric circulation on sea-level along the Chinese coast in an altered climate. For this purpose the ouput of 150 year-long experiment with the coupled ocean-atmosphere model ECHAM1-LSG has been analyzed, in which the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases was continuously increased from 1940 until 2090, according to the Scenario A projection of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. In this experiment the meridional (zonal) circulation relevant for sea-level tends to become weaker (stronger) in the winter half year and stronger (weaker) in summer. The estimated contribution of this atmospheric circulation changes to coastal sea-level is of the order of a few centimeters at the end of the integration, being in winter negative in the Yellow Sea and positive in the China Sea with opposite signs in the summer half-year.

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The impact of astaxanthin-enriched algal powder on auxiliary memory improvement was assessed in BALB/c mice pre-supplemented with different dosages of cracked green algal (Haematococcus pluvialis) powder daily for 30 days. The supplemented mice were first tested over 8 days to find a hidden platform by swimming in a Morris water maze. Then, for 5 days, the mice were used to search for a visible platform in a Morris water maze. After that, the mice practised finding a safe place-an insulated platform in a chamber-for 2 days. During these animal experimental periods, similar algal meals containing astaxanthin at 0, 0.26, 1.3 and 6.4 mg/kg body weight were continuously fed to each group of tested mice. Profiles of latency, distance, speed and the direction angle to the platforms as well as the diving frequency in each group were measured and analyzed. The process of mice jumping up onto the insulated platform and diving down to the copper-shuttered bottom with a 36 V electrical charge were also monitored by automatic video recording. The results of the Morris maze experiment showed that middle dosage of H. pluvialis meals (1.3 mg astaxanthin/kg body weight) significantly shortened the latency and distance required for mice to find a hidden platform. However, there was no obvious change in swim velocity in any of the supplemented groups. In contrast, the visible platform test showed a significant increase in latency and swim distance, and a significant decrease in swim speed for all groups of mice orally supplemented with H. pluvialis powder compared to the placebo group (P < 0.05 or P < 0.01). Mice supplemented with the algal meal hesitantly turned around the original hidden platform, in contract to mice supplemented with placebo, who easily forgot the original location and accepted the visible platform as a new safe place. These results illustrate that astaxanthin-enriched H. pluvialis powder has the auxiliary property of memory improvement. The results from the platform diving test showed that the low and middle dosage of H. pluvialis powder, rather that the high dosage, increased the latency and reduced the frequency of diving from the safe insulated platform to the electrically stimulated copper shutter, especially in the low treatment group (P < 0.05). These results indicate that H. pluvialis powder is associated with dose-dependent memory improvement and that a low dosage of algal powder (<= middle treatment group) is really good for improving the memory.

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The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of interconnectedness between a long-term savings and investments provider, Independent Financial Advisers (IFAs) and customers. Ritter’s (2000) framework of the effect of interconnectedness was used to analyse this triadic relationship. Conceptual studies of triadic business relationships are scarce in marketing and organisational research (Blakenburg & Johanson, 1992; Havila, Johnson & Thilenius, 2004; Ritter, 2000). However, the applicability of a triadic relationship has been tested in a number of case studies (Andersson & Mattsson, 2004; Cunningham & Pyatt, 1989; Jaaskelainen, Kuivalainen & Saarenketo, 2000; Narayandas, 2002; Odorici & Corrado, 2004; Pardo & Salle, 1994; Trimachi, 2002). This study was conducted in collaboration with one of the UK’s largest long-term savings and investments providers. A substantial proportion of the provider’s business is conducted through IFAs and thus their significance as a major stakeholder. Indeed, the majority of sales in the long-term savings and investments industry in the UK are realised through IFAs. Academic studies (Gough, 2005; Gough & Nurullah, 2009) have indicated that IFAs are the strongest distribution channel in the industry. Thus, by analysing the impact of the interconnectedness in this relationship, a strategy that can increase the relationship performance can be proposed. However, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, a study that investigates the effect of the interconnectedness in this triadic relationship has not been established. In addition, the regulatory environment which continues to face change such as the recent implementation of Retail Distribution Review (RDR) on 1st January 2013 will make the relationship more rather than less complex.

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Pyatt, B. Gilmore, G. Grattan, J. Hunt, C. McLaren, S. An imperial legacy? An exploration of the environmental impact of ancient metal mining and smelting in southern Jordan. Journal of Archaeological Science. 2000. 27 pp 771-778

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Sadler, J. Grattan, J. Volcanoes as agents of past environmental change. Global and Planetary Change. 1999. 21 pp 181-196

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Blanket bog lakes are a characteristic feature of blanket bog habitats and harbour many rare and threatened invertebrate species. Despite their potential conservation value, however, very little is known about their physico-chemical or biological characteristics in western Europe, and their reference conditions are still unknown in Ireland. Furthermore, they are under considerable threat in Ireland from a number of sources, particularly afforestation of their catchments by exotic conifers. Plantation forestry can potentially lead to the increased input of substances including hydrogen ions (H+), plants nutrients, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), heavy metals and sediment. The aims of this study were to investigate the effect of conifer plantation forestry on the hydrochemistry and ecology of blanket bog lakes in western Ireland. Lake hydrochemistry, littoral Chydoridae (Cladocera) and littoral macroinvertebrate communities were compared among replicate lakes selected from three distinct catchment land use categories: i) unplanted blanket bog only present in the catchment, ii) mature (closed-canopy) conifer plantation forests only present in the catchment and iii) catchments containing mature conifer plantation forests with recently clearfelled areas. All three catchment land uses were replicated across two geologies: sandstone and granite. Lakes with afforested catchments across both geologies had elevated concentrations of phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N), total dissolved organic carbon (TDOC), aluminium (Al) and iron (Fe), with the highest concentrations of each parameter recorded from lakes with catchment clearfelling. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were also significantly reduced in the afforested lakes, particularly the clearfell lakes. This change in lake hydrochemistry was associated with profound changes in lake invertebrate communities. Within the chydorid communities, the dominance of Alonopsis elongata in the unplanted blanket bog lakes shifted to dominance by the smaller bodied Chydorus sphaericus, along with Alonella nana, Alonella excisa and Alonella exigua, in the plantation forestry-affected lakes, consistent with a shift in lake trophy. Similarly, there was marked changes in the macroinvertebrate communities, especially for the Coleoptera and Heteroptera assemblages which revealed increased taxon richness and abundance in the nutrient-enriched lakes. In terms of conservation status, despite having the greatest species-quality scores (SQS) and species richness, three of the four International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) red-listed species of Coleoptera and Odonata recorded during the study were absent from lakes subject to catchment clearfelling. The relative strengths of bottom-up (forestry-mediated nutrient enrichment) and top-down (fish) forces in structuring littoral macroinvertebrate communities was investigated in a separate study. Nutrient enrichment was shown to be the dominant force acting on communities, with fish having a lesser influence. These results confirmed that plantation forestry poses the single greatest threat to the conservation status of blanket bog lakes in western Ireland. The findings of this study have major implications for the management of afforested peatlands. Further research is required on blanket bog lakes to prevent any further plantation forestry-mediated habitat deterioration of this rare and protected habitat.

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A notable feature of the surveillance case law of the European Court of Human Rights has been the tendency of the Court to focus on the “in accordance with the law” aspect of the Article 8 ECHR inquiry. This focus has been the subject of some criticism, but the impact of this approach on the manner in which domestic surveillance legislation has been formulated in the Party States has received little scholarly attention. This thesis addresses that gap in the literature through its consideration of the Interception of Postal Packets and Telecommunications Messages (Regulation) Act, 1993 and the Criminal Justice (Surveillance) Act, 2009. While both Acts provide several of the safeguards endorsed by the European Court of Human Rights, this thesis finds that they suffer from a number of crucial weaknesses that undermine the protection of privacy. This thesis demonstrates how the focus of the European Court of Human Rights on the “in accordance with the law” test has resulted in some positive legislative change. Notwithstanding this fact, it is maintained that the legality approach has gained prominence at the expense of a full consideration of the “necessary in a democratic society” inquiry. This has resulted in superficial legislative responses at the domestic level, including from the Irish government. Notably, through the examination of a number of more recent cases, this project discerns a significant alteration in the interpretive approach adopted by the European Court of Human Rights regarding the application of the necessity test. The implications of this development are considered and the outlook for Irish surveillance legislation is assessed.

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The conventional meaning of culture is ‘widely shared and strongly held values’ of a particular group or society (Bradley and Parker, 2006: 89). Culture is not a rigid concept; it can be influenced or altered by new ideas or forces. This research examines the ways in which one set of ideas in particular, that is, those associated with New Public Management, have impacted upon the administrative culture of 'street-level' bureaucrats and professionals within Irish social policy. Lipsky (1980: 3) defined 'street-level' bureaucrats as ‘public service workers who interact directly with citizens in the course of their jobs, and who have substantial discretion in the execution of their work’. Utilising the Competing Values Framework (CVF) in the analysis of eighty three semi-structured interviews with 'street-level' bureaucrats and professionals, an evaluation is made as to the impact of NPM ideas on both visible and invisible aspects of administrative culture. Overall, the influence of NPM is confined to superficial aspects of administrative culture such as; increased flexibility in working hours and to some degree job contracts; increased time commitment; and a customer service focus. However, the extent of these changes varies depending on policy sector and occupational group. Aspects of consensual and hierarchical cultures remain firmly in place. These coincide with features of developmental and market cultures. Contrary to the view that members of hierarchical and consensual culture would pose resistance to change, this research clearly illustrates that a very large appetite for change exists in the attitudes of 'street-level' bureaucrats and professionals within Irish social policy, with many of them suggesting changes that correspond to NPM ideas. This study demonstrates the relevance of employing the CVF model as it is clear that administrative culture is very much a dynamic system of competing and co-existing cultures.

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This dissertation is the first full-length study to concentrate on American genre painter Lilly Martin Spencer's images of children, which constituted nearly one half of her saleable production during the height of her artistic career from 1848 to 1869. At this time, many young parents received advice regarding child rearing through books and other publications, having moved away from their families of origin in search of employment. These literatures, which gained in popularity from the 1830s onward, focused on spiritual, emotional, and disciplinary matters. My study considers four major themes from the period's writing on child nurture that changed over time, including depravity and innocence, parent/child bonding, standards of behavior and moral rectitude, and children's influence on adults. It demonstrates how Spencer's paintings, prints, and drawings featuring children supported and challenged these evolving ideologies, helping to shed light not only on the artist's reception of child-rearing advice, but also on its possible impact on her middle-class audience, to whom she closely catered. In four chapters, I investigate Spencer's images of sleeping children as visual equivalents of contemporary consolation literature during a time of high infant and child mortality rates; her paintings of parent/child interaction as promoting separation from mothers and emotional bonding with fathers; her prints of mischievous children as both considering changing ideals about children's behavior and comforting Anglo-American citizens afraid of what they saw as threatening minority groups; and her pictures with Civil War and Reconstruction subject matter as contending with the popular concept of the moral utility of children. By framing my interpretations of Spencer's output around key issues in the period's dynamic child-nurture literature, I advance new comprehensive readings of many of her most well-known paintings, including Domestic Happiness, Fi, Fo, Fum!, and The Pic Nic or the Fourth of July. I also consider work often overlooked by other art historians, but which received acclaim in Spencer's own time, including the lithographs of children made after her designs, and the allegorical painting Truth Unveiling Falsehood. Significantly, I provide the first in-depth analysis of a newly rediscovered Reconstruction-era painting, The Home of the Red, White, and Blue.

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Nations around the world are considering strategies to mitigate the severe impacts of climate change predicted to occur in the twenty-first century. Many countries, however, lack the wealth, technology, and government institutions to effectively cope with climate change. This study investigates the varying degrees to which developing and developed nations will be exposed to changes in three key variables: temperature, precipitation, and runoff. We use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis to compare current and future climate model predictions on a country level. We then compare our calculations of climate change exposure for each nation to several metrics of political and economic well-being. Our results indicate that the impacts of changes in precipitation and runoff are distributed relatively equally between developed and developing nations. In contrast, we confirm research suggesting that developing nations will be affected far more severely by changes in temperature than developed nations. Our results also suggest that this unequal impact will persist throughout the twenty-first century. Our analysis further indicates that the most significant temperature changes will occur in politically unstable countries, creating an additional motivation for developed countries to actively engage with developing nations on climate mitigation strategies. © 2011, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.

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OBJECTIVE: This study examines the degree to which a married individual's health habits and use of preventive medical care are influenced by his or her spouse's behaviors. STUDY DESIGN: Using longitudinal data on individuals and their spouses, we examine changes over time in the health habits of each person as a function of changes in his or her spouse's health habits. Specifically, we analyze changes in smoking, drinking, exercising, cholesterol screening, and obtaining a flu shot. DATA SOURCE: This study uses data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative sample of individuals born between 1931 and 1941 and their spouses. Beginning in 1992, 12,652 persons (age-eligible individuals as well as their spouses) from 7,702 households were surveyed about many aspects of their life, including health behaviors, use of preventive services, and disease diagnosis. SAMPLE: The analytic sample includes 6,072 individuals who are married at the time of the initial HRS survey and who remain married and in the sample at the time of the 1996 and 2000 waves. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We consistently find that when one spouse improves his or her behavior, the other spouse is likely to do so as well. This is found across all the behaviors analyzed, and persists despite controlling for many other factors. CONCLUSIONS: Simultaneous changes occur in a number of health behaviors. This conclusion has prescriptive implications for developing interventions, treatments, and policies to improve health habits and for evaluating the impact of such measures.

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Systemic challenges within child welfare have prompted many states to explore new strategies aimed at protecting children while meeting the needs of families, but doing so within the confines of shrinking budgets. Differential Response has emerged as a promising practice for low or moderate risk cases of child maltreatment. This mixed methods evaluation explored various aspects of North Carolina's differential response system, known as the Multiple Response System (MRS), including: child safety, timeliness of response and case decision, frontloading of services, case distribution, implementation of Child and Family Teams, collaboration with community-based service providers and Shared Parenting. Utilizing Child Protective Services (CPS) administrative data, researchers found that compared to matched control counties, MRS: had a positive impact on child safety evidenced by a decline in the rates of substantiations and re-assessments; temporarily disrupted timeliness of response in pilot counties but had no effect on time to case decision; and increased the number of upfront services provided to families during assessment. Qualitative data collected through focus groups with providers and phone interviews with families provided important information on key MRS strategies, highlighting aspects that families and social workers like as well as identifying areas for improvement. This information is useful for continuous quality improvement efforts, particularly related to the development of training and technical assistance programs at the state and local level.

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The present study examined the impact of the developmental timing of trauma exposure on posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and psychosocial functioning in a large sample of community-dwelling older adults (N = 1,995). Specifically, we investigated whether the negative consequences of exposure to traumatic events were greater for traumas experienced during childhood, adolescence, young adulthood, midlife, or older adulthood. Each of these developmental periods is characterized by age-related changes in cognitive and social processes that may influence psychological adjustment following trauma exposure. Results revealed that older adults who experienced their currently most distressing traumatic event during childhood exhibited more severe symptoms of PTSD and lower subjective happiness compared with older adults who experienced their most distressing trauma after the transition to adulthood. Similar findings emerged for measures of social support and coping ability. The differential effects of childhood compared with later life traumas were not fully explained by differences in cumulative trauma exposure or by differences in the objective and subjective characteristics of the events. Our findings demonstrate the enduring nature of traumatic events encountered early in the life course and underscore the importance of examining the developmental context of trauma exposure in investigations of the long-term consequences of traumatic experiences.