PREDICTING THE SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE - TEMPERATURE IN GREAT-BRITAIN

1. The prediction and mapping of climate in areas between climate stations is of increasing importance in ecology.

2. Four categories of model, simple interpolation, thin plate splines, multiple linear regression and mixed spline-regression, were tested for their ability to predict the spatial distribution of temperature on the British mainland. The models were tested by external cross-verification.

3. The British distribution of mean daily temperature was predicted with the greatest accuracy by using a mixed model: a thin plate spline fitted to the surface of the country, after correction of the data by a selection from 16 independent topographical variables (such as altitude, distance from the sea, slope and topographic roughness), chosen by multiple regression from a digital terrain model (DTM) of the country.

4. The next most accurate method was a pure multiple regression model using the DTM. Both regression and thin plate spline models based on a few variables (latitude, longitude and altitude) only were comparatively unsatisfactory, but some rather simple methods of surface interpolation (such as bilinear interpolation after correction to sea level) gave moderately satisfactory results. Differences between the methods seemed to be dependent largely on their ability to model the effect of the sea on land temperatures.

5. Prediction of temperature by the best methods was greater than 95% accurate in all months of the year, as shown by the correlation between the predicted and actual values. The predicted temperatures were calculated at real altitudes, not subject to sea-level correction.

6. A minimum of just over 30 temperature recording stations would generate a satisfactory surface, provided the stations were well spaced.

7. Maps of mean daily temperature, using the best overall methods are provided; further important variables, such as continentality and length of growing season, were also mapped. Many of these are believed to be the first detailed representations at real altitude.

8. The interpolated monthly temperature surfaces are available on disk.

Disabled women’s experiences of accessing and utilising maternity services when they are affected by domestic abuse: a critical incident technique study

Background: Women and their babies are entitled to equal access to high quality maternity care. However, when women fit into two or more categories of vulnerability they can face multiple, compound barriers to accessing and utilising services. Disabled women are up to three times more likely to experience domestic abuse than non-disabled women. Domestic abuse may compromise health service access and utilisation and disabled people in general have suboptimal access to healthcare services. Despite this, little is known about the compounding effects of disability and domestic abuse on women’s access to maternity care.

Methods: The aim of the study was to identify how women approach maternity care services, their expectations of services and whether they are able to get the type of care that they need and want. We conducted a qualitative, Critical Incident Technique study in Scotland. Theoretically we drew on Andersen’s model of healthcare use. The model was congruent with our interest in women’s intended/actual use of maternity services and the facilitators and barriers
impacting their access to care. Data were generated during 2013 using one-to-one interviews.

Results: Five women took part and collectively reported 45 critical incidents relating to accessing and utilising maternity services. Mapped to the underpinning theoretical framework, our findings show how the four domains of attitudes; knowledge; social norms; and perceived control are important factors shaping maternity care experiences.

Conclusions: Positive staff attitude and empowering women to have control over their own care is crucial in influencing women’s access to and utilisation of maternity healthcare services. Moreover these are cyclical, with the consequences and outcomes of healthcare use becoming part of the enabling or disabling factors affecting future healthcare decisions.Further consideration needs to be given to the development of strategies to access and recruit women in these circumstances. This will provide an opportunity for under-represented and silenced voices to be heard.

Perspectives on social citizenship in the EU – from status positivus to status socialis activus via two forms of transnational solidarity

Ever since the inauguration of EU citizenship, elements of social citizenship have been on the agenda of European integration. European level social benefits were proposed early on, and demands for collective labour rights have followed suit. This chapter uses the theoretical umbrella of transnational social citizenship in order to link transnational access to social benefits and collective labour rights. It promotes transnational rights as the best way to conceptualise EU social citizenship as an institution enabling the enjoyment of EU integration without being forced to forego social rights at other levels. Such a perspective sits well in a collection on EU citizenship and federalism, since it simultaneously challenges demands of renationalisation of social rights in the EU and pleas to reduce EU-level citizenship rights to a merely liberal dimension. Social citizenship as promoted here requires an interactive conceptualisation of regulatory and judicial powers at different levels of government as typical for federal systems.
In linking citizenship with human rights the chapter highlights different statuses of citizens. It argues that the rights constituted by social citizenship derive from a status positivus and a status socialis activus, expanding the time-honoured categories of Jellinek. This concept is developed further by linking the notions of receptive solidarity to the status positivus and the notion of participative solidarity to the status socialis activus. In relation to European Union citizenship it promotes a sustainable transnational social citizenship catering for receptive and participative solidarity.
These ideas contrast with most current discourses on EU citizenship. The stress on social citizenship takes issue with a retreat to mere liberalist notions of EU-level citizenship, and the stress on rights takes issue with conceptualising EU citizenship as a community bond with obligations, downplaying the empowering potential of rights. The difficulty of conceptualising transnational social citizenship is to avoid, on the one hand, taking up the tune of populist discourses imagining those moving beyond state borders as a threat to national social citizenship and, on the other hand, to reject the legitimate fears of those remaining at home of creating rupture in the social fabric of Europe’s society. Promoting transnational social citizenship rights based on receptive and participative solidarity the present chapter aims to contribute to avoiding these pitfalls.

Development and Validation of a Procedure for Numerical Vibration Analysis of an Oscillating Wave Surge Converter

During extreme sea states so called impact events can be observed on the wave energy converter Oyster. In small scale experimental tests these impact events cause high frequency signals in the measured load which decrease confidence in the data obtained. These loads depend on the structural dynamics of the model. Amplification of the loads can occur and is transferred through the structure from the point of impact to the load cell located in the foundation. Since the determination of design data and load cases for Wave Energy Converters originate from scale experiments, this lack of confidence has a direct effect on the development.

Numerical vibration analysis is a valuable tool in the research of the structural load response of Oyster to impact events, but must take into account the effect of the surrounding water. This can be done efficiently by adding an added mass distribution, computed with a linearised potential boundary element method. This paper presents the development and validation of a numerical procedure, which couples the OpenSource boundary element code NEMOH with the Finite Element Analysis tool CodeAster. Numerical results of the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the structure under the influence of added mass due to specific structural modes are compared with experimental results.

Praying for Salvation: A Map of Relatedness

This article attempts to push Mauss’ work on the sociality of prayer (1909) to its fullest conclusion by arguing that prayer can be viewed anthropologically as providing a map for social and emotional relatedness. Based on fieldwork among deep-sea fisher families living in Gamrie, North-East Scotland (home to 700 people and six Protestant churches), the author takes as his primary ethnographic departure the ritual of the ‘mid-week prayer meeting’. Among the self-proclaimed ‘fundamentalists’ of Gamrie’s Brethren and Presbyterian churches, attending the prayer meeting means praying for salvation. Yet, contrary to the stereotype of Protestant soteriology as highly individualist, in the context of Gamrie, salvation is not principally focused upon the self, but is instead sought on behalf of the ‘unconverted’ other. Locally, this ‘other’ is made sense of with reference to three different categories of relatedness: the family, the village and the nation. The author’s argument is that each category of relatedness carries with it a different affective quality: anguish for one’s family, resentment toward one’s village, and resignation towards one’s nation. As such, prayers for salvation establish and maintain not only vertical – human-divine – relatedness, but also horizontal relatedness between persons, while also giving them their emotional tenor. In ‘fundamentalist’ Gamrie, these human relationships, and crucially their affective asymmetries, may be mapped, therefore, by treating prayers as social phenomena that seek to engage with a world dichotomised into vice and virtue, rebellion and submission, and, ultimately, damnation and salvation.

Visible Difference, Stigmatising Language(s) and the Distinctive Construction of Prejudices against Others in Leeds and Warsaw

The chapter argues that language and cultural communication matter in a transnational world and that the transmission of prejudices against minorities has to be closely analysed while contextualising national histories with minorities. Looking at two spatial sites (Leeds and Warsaw) and analysing interview material that was drawn from a larger study, the authors discuss the way local people address difference particularly through the axes of gendered ethnicity (Muslim men) and gendered class (male underclass). It explores how the same categories of difference are discursively produced in Poland and the UK/ England; to what degree they differ or overlap.

Macroinvertebrate traits as biomonitoring tools in agricultural scenarios

Os ecossistemas de água doce – responsáveis por funções ambientais importantes e pelo fornecimento de bens e serviços insubstituíveis – têm vindo a ser severamente afectados por perturbações antropogénicas. A conversão de floresta em terreno agrícola afecta os sistemas aquáticos através de uma série de mecanismos: sedimentação; excesso de nutrientes; contaminação; alterações hidrológicas; e remoção de vegetação ripícola. As comunidades de macroinvertebrados de água doce – devido à sua diversidade, ubiquidade e sensibilidade às perturbações ambientais – revelam-se como particularmente adequadas para estudos de avaliação da integridade ecológica destes sistemas expostos simultaneamente a múltiplos factores de impacto. O uso sistemático de respostas biológicas para avaliação de mudanças ambientais – ou biomonitorização – pode ser levado a cabo através de diversas metodologias, que, de uma forma geral, não consideram aspectos funcionais das comunidades biológicas e têm aplicabilidade geograficamente restrita. A biomonitorização através de atributos biológicos (características que reflectem a adaptação das espécies ao seu meio ambiente) revela-se como uma ferramenta promissora na resolução dos problemas referidos, apresentando vantagens adicionais: relações causa-efeito directas; melhoria na diferenciação de impactos; e integração da variabilidade natural. O presente estudo apresenta uma revisão critica do estado-da-arte actual na área do uso de atributos biológicos em biomonitorização. Até à data de publicação, não estava disponível nenhum outro trabalho com a base conceptual do uso de atributos de macroinvertebrados enquanto descritores de comunidades e para efeitos de biomonitorização e gestão de sistemas de água doce. Descrevem-se as teorias ecológicas de suporte destas metodologias (conceitos de habitat-molde e de filtros paisagísticos) e os estudos que aplicaram estas teorias em cenários reais, tendo-se chamado a atenção para questões técnicas e possíveis soluções. As necessidades futuras nesta área englobam: o desenvolvimento de uma só ferramenta de biomonitorização de aplicação alargada; uma maior compreensão da variabilidade natural nas comunidades biológicas; diminuição dos efeitos de soluções de compromisso biológico e sindromas; realização de estudos autoecológicos adicionais; e detecção de impactos específicos em cenários de impacto complexos. Um dos objectivos deste estudo foi contribuir para a melhoria das técnicas de biomonitorização através de atributos, focalizando em comunidades de macroinvertebrados ribeirinhas em diferentes regiões biogeográficas (as bacias hidrográficas dos rios: Little e Salmon em New Brunswick, Canadá; Anllóns na Galiza, Espanha; Reventazón em Cartago, Costa Rica). Em cada região, foram estudados gradientes de uso agrícola de solo, incluindo desde bacias hidrográficas quase exclusivamente cobertas por floresta até bacias sob a influência maioritária de actividades agrícolas intensivas. Em cada gradiente de uso de solo, a caracterização da comunidade biológica (por amostragem de macroinvertebrados em troços de rápidos) foi acompanhada pela caracterização do habitat circundante (incluindo propriedades da bacia hidrográfica, análise química das águas e outras propriedades à escala local). A comunidade de macroinvertebrados foi caracterizada através de informação taxonómica, métricas estruturais, índices de diversidade, métricas de tolerância, índices bióticos e através da compilação de atributos biológicos e fisiológicos gerais, de história de vida e de resistência a perturbações. Análises estatísticas univariadas e multivariadas foram usadas para evidenciar os gradientes biológicos e físico-químicos, confirmar a sua co-variação, testar a significância da discriminação de níveis de impacto e estabelecer comparações inter-regionais. A estrutura de comunidades revelou os complexos gradientes de impacto, que por sua vez co-variaram significativamente com os gradientes de uso de solo. Os gradientes de impacto relacionaram-se sobretudo com entrada de nutrientes e sedimentação. Os gradientes biológicos definidos pelas medidas estruturais seleccionadas co-variaram com os gradientes de impacto estudados, muito embora apenas algumas variáveis estruturais tenham individualmente discriminado as categorias de uso de solo definidas a priori. Não foi detectada consistência nas respostas das medidas estruturais entre regiões biogeográficas, tendo-se confirmadado que as interpretações puramente taxonómicas de impactos são difíceis de extrapolar entre regiões. Os gradientes biológicos definidos através dos atributos seleccionados também co-variaram com os gradientes de perturbação, tendo sido possível obter uma melhor discriminação de categorias de uso de solo. Nas diferentes regiões, a discriminação de locais mais impactados foi feita com base num conjunto similar de atributos, que inclui tamanho, voltinismo, técnicas reproductivas, microhabitat, preferências de corrente e substrato, hábitos alimentares e formas de resistência. Este conjunto poderá vir a ser usado para avaliar de forma predictiva os efeitos das modificações severas de uso de solo impostas pela actividade agrícola. Quando analisadas simultaneamente através dos atributos, as comunidades das três regiões permitiram uma moderada mas significativa discriminação de níveis de impacto. Estas análises corroboram as evidências de que as mudanças nas comunidades de macroinvertebrados aquáticos em locais sob a influência de agricultura intensiva podem seguir uma trajectória convergente no espaço multidimensional, independentemente de factores geográficos. Foram fornecidas pistas para a identificação de parâmetros específicos que deverão ser tidos em conta no planeamento de novos programas de biomonitorização com comunidades de macroinvertebrados bentónicos, para aplicação numa gestão fluvial verdadeiramente ecológica, nestas e noutras regiões. Foram ainda sugeridas possíveis linhas futuras de investigação.

Advanced monitoring of South Portugal water bodies towards WFD

The challenge on implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) fosters the development of new monitoring methods and approaches. It is now commonly accepted that the use of classical monitoring campaigns in discrete point is not sufficient to fully assess and describe a water body. Due to this the WFD promote the use of modelling techniques in surface waters to assist all phases of the process, from characterisation and establishment of reference conditions to identification of pressures and assessment of impact. The work presented in this communication is based on these principles. A classical monitoring of the water status of the main transitional water bodies of Algarve (south of Portugal) is combined with advanced in situ water profiling and hydrodynamic, water quality and ecological modelling of the systems to build a complete description of its state. This approach extends spatially and temporally the resolution of the classical point sampling. The methodology was applied during a 12 month program in Ria Formosa coastal lagoon, the Guadiana estuary and the Arade estuary. The synoptic profiling uses an YSI 6600 EDS multi-parameter system attached to a boat and a GPS receiver to produce monthly synoptic maps of the systems. This data extends the discrete point sampling with laboratory analysis performed monthly in several points of each water body. The point sampling is used to calibrate the profiling system and to include variables, such as nutrients, not measured by the sensors. A total of 1427 samplings were performed for physical and chemical parameters, chlorophyll and microbiologic contamination in the water column. This data is used to drive the hydrodynamic, transport and ecological modules of the MOHID water modelling system (www.mohid.com), enabling an integrate description of the water column.

Golf destinations' brand personality: the case of the Algarve

The purpose of this research is to develop and validate a measurement scale to assess golf destinations’ brand personality and therefore to perceive the destination personality of the Algarve as a golf destination. Based on literature review on human personality, brand personality, destination brand image and marketing scales validation procedures, an initial 36 unrepeated items were the base for a survey instrument. Those items were generated from the literature, from the results of individual interviews with experts in tourism and golf in the Algarve and from promotional texts in golf- related websites. After content validation, the items were allocated into categories of attributes by a panel of expert judges. A survey was then applied to a convenient sample of 600 golf players in the Algarve, and 545 (valid) questionnaires were analysed to refine the scale. Golf players assessed the components of the relational brand personality (functional, symbolic and experiential) as well as the Algarve as a golf destination. A taxonomy of brand personality was developed and tested in the Algarve as it is recognized as one of the world best golf destination. The developed taxonomy of brand personality was assessed in two ways: 1) through the overall perception of the Algarve as a golf destination and 2) through the perception of specific attributes of the destination grouped into three main categories (functional, symbolic and experiential). Therefore, two multi-dimensional brand personality models were estimated by using structural equation modelling. Findings of this study indicate that golf players ascribe personality characteristics to destinations. The brand personality of the Algarve is translated into three main dimensions enjoyableness, distinctiveness and friendliness when tourists/golf players reveal their overall perception of the destination. The brand personality of golf destination Algarve is reflected in the dimensions reliability, hospitality, uniqueness and attractiveness when tourists assess the components of the relational brand personality. Refined scales consisting of 10 and 12 items were finally derived meeting both reliability and validity requirements. This study does not replicate Aaker’s (1997) personality dimensions and very little parallelism can be drawn with Aaker’s (1997) brand personality scale since only three items from her scale were validated in both models: friendly and cheerful, (sincerity), reliable (competence). The same is verified concerning the ‘Big-five’. The human personality traits (HPT) validated to describe golf destinations personality are only four helpful, pleasant (agreeableness), relaxed (emotional stability), and innovative (intellect or openness). As far as destination image descriptors (DID) are concerned, the items appealing, relaxed and safe were validated, while traits suggested by the interviews and website promotional texts such as calm, natural, spectacular, unique, welcoming, and the best (destination-specific traits) appear to be appropriate to describe the personality of a golf destination. The results suggest that the overall perception of the Algarve´s brand personality is described by the dimensions enjoyableness, distinctiveness and friendliness. Moreover, the relational perspective revealed that the functional attributes of the destination are described by the dimension reliablility, while the symbolic attributes are described by the dimensions hospitablility and uniqueness and finally its experiential attributes are described by the dimension attractiveness. These results show that a golf destination´s brand personality should not just be based on good golf practices. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed in the context of destination brand personality.

Interpretation of pictograms by 3rd grade pupils: the teacher’s role

In this paper we analyze how a primary school teacher (João) leads the discussion of a task in a grade 3 class aimed at reading and interpreting pictograms. The paper is part of a larger study that follows an interpretative and qualitative research methodology with a case study design. The results indicate that, in his teaching practice, the teacher strives to ask questions so that his pupils are not limited to the identification of categories of high and low frequency characteristic, that is, "reading the data", but also raises questions related to "reading between the data" and "beyond the data."

Reducing social and environmental impacts of urban freight transport: a review of some major cities

This paper reviews the options available to policy makers in their efforts to reduce the negative impacts of urban freight transport. After providing a summary of the categories of negative impacts that can be targeted together with the specific policy initiatives available, it reviews the actions taken by policy makers across in cities within four countries (UK, Japan, the Netherlands and France). In the case of the UK and Japan attention is focused on a single city as an exemplar of some of the developments. In the case of the Netherlands and France the discussion is wider.

Specifying and analysing networks of processes in CSPt (or in search of associativity)

In proposing theories of how we should design and specify networks of processes it is necessary to show that the semantics of any language we use to write down the intended behaviours of a system has several qualities. First in that the meaning of what is written on the page reflects the intention of the designer; second that there are no unexpected behaviours that might arise in a specified system that are hidden from the unsuspecting specifier; and third that the intention for the design of the behaviour of a network of processes can be communicated clearly and intuitively to others. In order to achieve this we have developed a variant of CSP, called CSPt, designed to solve the problems of termination of parallel processes present in the original formulation of CSP. In CSPt we introduced three parallel operators, each with a different kind of termination semantics, which we call synchronous, asynchronous and race. These operators provide specifiers with an expressive and flexible tool kit to define the intended behaviour of a system in such a way that unexpected or unwanted behaviours are guaranteed not to take place. In this paper we extend out analysis of CSPt and introduce the notion of an alphabet diagram that illustrates the different categories of events that can arise in the parallel composition of processes. These alphabet diagrams are then used to analyse networks of three processes in parallel with the aim of identifying sufficient constraints to ensure associativity of their parallel composition. Having achieved this we then proceed to prove associativity laws for the three parallel operators of CSPt. Next, we illustrate how to design and construct a network of three processes that satisfy the associativity law, using the associativity theorem and alphabet diagrams. Finally, we outline how this could be achieved for more general networks of processes.

The significance of Marx's value for strategy theory: competitive advantage and the issue of tautology within the resource-based view of the firm

Marxian thinking following the TSSI (Temporal Single System Interpretation) of Marx is applied to refute the allegation of a tautology in the resource-based view of the firm--paired with providing an explanation of how and why resources create value--, where resources are synonymous with Marx's categories of constant and variable capital. Refuting the allegation naturally leads to the holy grail of resource-based thinking, i.e. the question of what, conceptually, constitutes a firm's competitive advantage within the industry context. The article achieves its objectives by tying the resource-based view into Marx's theory value.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Balancing and lot-sizing mixed-model lines in the footwear industry

This report describes the full research proposal for the project \Balancing and lot-sizing mixed-model lines in the footwear industry", to be developed as part of the master program in Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores - Sistemas de Planeamento Industrial of the Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto. The Portuguese footwear industry is undergoing a period of great development and innovation. The numbers speak for themselves, Portugal footwear exported 71 million pairs of shoes to over 130 countries in 2012. It is a diverse sector, which covers different categories of women, men and children shoes, each of them with various models. New and technologically advanced mixed-model assembly lines are being projected and installed to replace traditional mass assembly lines. Obviously there is a need to manage them conveniently and to improve their operations. This work focuses on balancing and lot-sizing stitching mixed-model lines in a real world environment. For that purpose it will be fundamental to develop and evaluate adequate effective solution methods. Different objectives may be considered, which are relevant for the companies, such as minimizing the number of workstations, and minimizing the makespan, while taking into account a lot of practical restrictions. The solution approaches will be based on approximate methods, namely by resorting to metaheuristics. To show the impact of having different lots in production the initial maximum amount for each lot is changed and a Tabu Search based procedure is used to improve the solutions. The developed approaches will be evaluated and tested. A special attention will be given to the solution of real applied problems. Future work may include the study of other neighbourhood structures related to Tabu Search and the development of ways to speed up the evaluation of neighbours, as well as improving the balancing solution method.