Realized volatility: evidence from Brazil

Using intraday data for the most actively traded stocks on the São Paulo Stock Market (BOVESPA) index, this study considers two recently developed models from the literature on the estimation and prediction of realized volatility: the Heterogeneous Autoregressive Model of Realized Volatility (HAR-RV), developed by Corsi (2009), and the Mixed Data Sampling model (MIDAS-RV), developed by Ghysels et al. (2004). Using measurements to compare in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts, better results were obtained with the MIDAS-RV model for in-sample forecasts. For out-of-sample forecasts, however, there was no statistically signi cant di¤erence between the models. We also found evidence that the use of realized volatility induces distributions of standardized returns that are closer to normal

Uma análise dos leilões de partilha de produção do pré-sal através de simulação computacional

O presente trabalho consiste na aplicação da simulação computacional como método de aprofundamento do estudo de mecanismos de leilões aplicados na alocação do direito de exploração das reservas de petróleo da camada do pré-sal. A camada do pré-sal está localizada na costa brasileira e apresenta um grande potencial em termos de reserva de óleo e gás. A função lance aplicada para os participantes criados computacionalmente foi estimada com base em dados experimentais e segue uma função exponencial. A simulação possibilita reproduzir o modelo de leilão considerando todas as características e parâmetros dos experimentos sem incorrer no custo da realização de novas sessões de leilão com participantes reais. Os leilões estudados foram o leilão de valores privados de 1° preço e o leilão de valores privados de 2° preço. Através dos resultados obtidos identificou-se que o leilão de valores privados de 1° preço é menos arriscado que o leilão de valores privados de 2° preço; no leilão com simetria, o Princípio de Equivalência de Receita é válido; a eficiência observada é menor em leilões assimétricos; o leilão de 2° preço comparado com o de 1° preço apresenta um tradeoff entre a eficiência e a receita do governo; e que considerando o aprendizado dos participantes, não se observam alterações significativas nas estatísticas analisadas à medida que os participantes se tornam mais experientes.

Testing consumption optimality using aggregate data

The objective of this paper is to test for optimality of consumption decisions at the aggregate level (representative consumer) taking into account popular deviations from the canonical CRRA utility model rule of thumb and habit. First, we show that rule-of-thumb behavior in consumption is observational equivalent to behavior obtained by the optimizing model of King, Plosser and Rebelo (Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988), casting doubt on how reliable standard rule-of-thumb tests are. Second, although Carroll (2001) and Weber (2002) have criticized the linearization and testing of euler equations for consumption, we provide a deeper critique directly applicable to current rule-of-thumb tests. Third, we show that there is no reason why return aggregation cannot be performed in the nonlinear setting of the Asset-Pricing Equation, since the latter is a linear function of individual returns. Fourth, aggregation of the nonlinear euler equation forms the basis of a novel test of deviations from the canonical CRRA model of consumption in the presence of rule-of-thumb and habit behavior. We estimated 48 euler equations using GMM, with encouraging results vis-a-vis the optimality of consumption decisions. At the 5% level, we only rejected optimality twice out of 48 times. Empirical-test results show that we can still rely on the canonical CRRA model so prevalent in macroeconomics: out of 24 regressions, we found the rule-of-thumb parameter to be statistically signi cant at the 5% level only twice, and the habit ƴ parameter to be statistically signi cant on four occasions. The main message of this paper is that proper return aggregation is critical to study intertemporal substitution in a representative-agent framework. In this case, we fi nd little evidence of lack of optimality in consumption decisions, and deviations of the CRRA utility model along the lines of rule-of-thumb behavior and habit in preferences represent the exception, not the rule.

Macroeconomic announcements, price discovery, and order flow efects in the stock market: evidence from incomplete data and multiple financial markets

This paper investigates heterogeneity in the market assessment of public macro- economic announcements by exploring (jointly) two main mechanisms through which macroeconomic news might enter stock prices: instantaneous fundamental news im- pacts consistent with the asset pricing view of symmetric information, and permanent order ow e¤ects consistent with a microstructure view of asymmetric information related to heterogeneous interpretation of public news. Theoretical motivation and empirical evidence for the operation of both mechanisms are presented. Signi cant in- stantaneous news impacts are detected for news related to real activity (including em- ployment), investment, in ation, and monetary policy; however, signi cant order ow e¤ects are also observed on employment announcement days. A multi-market analysis suggests that these asymmetric information e¤ects come from uncertainty about long term interest rates due to heterogeneous assessments of future Fed responses to em- ployment shocks.

Practice location of physicians: a discrete choice model approach

Economists and policymakers have long been concerned with increasing the supply of health professionals in rural and remote areas. This work seeks to understand which factors influence physicians’ choice of practice location right after completing residency. Differently from previous papers, we analyse the Brazilian missalocation and assess the particularities of developing countries. We use a discrete choice model approach with a multinomial logit specification. Two rich databases are employed containing the location and wage of formally employed physicians as well as details from their post-graduation. Our main findings are that amenities matter, physicians have a strong tendency to remain in the region they completed residency and salaries are significant in the choice of urban, but not rural, communities. We conjecture this is due to attachments built during training and infrastructure concerns.

The consumer litigation industry: chasing dragon kings in lawyer-client networks

The community of lawyers and their clients form a scale-free bipartite network that develops naturally as the outcome of the recommendation process through which lawyers form their client base. This process is an example of preferential attachment where lawyers with more clients are more likely to be recommended to new clients. Consumer litigation is an important market for lawyers. In large consumer societies, there always a signi cant amount of consumption disputes that escalate to court. In this paper we analyze a dataset of thousands of lawsuits, reconstructing the lawyer-client network embedded in the data. Analyzing the degree distribution of this network we noticed that it follows that of a scale-free network built by preferential attachment, but for a few lawyers with much larger client base than could be expected by preferential attachment. Incidentally, most of these also gured on a list put together by the judiciary of Lawyers which openly advertised the bene ts of consumer litigation. According to the code of ethics of their profession, lawyers should not stimulate clients into litigation, but it is not strictly illegal. From a network formation point of view, this stimulation can be seen as a separate growth mechanism than preferential attachment alone. In this paper we nd that this composite growth can be detected by a simple statistical test, as simulations show that lawyers which use both mechanisms quickly become the \Dragon-Kings" of the distribution of the number of clients per lawyer.

Cherry picking with synthetic controls

The synthetic control (SC) method has been recently proposed as an alternative method to estimate treatment e ects in comparative case studies. Abadie et al. [2010] and Abadie et al. [2015] argue that one of the advantages of the SC method is that it imposes a data-driven process to select the comparison units, providing more transparency and less discretionary power to the researcher. However, an important limitation of the SC method is that it does not provide clear guidance on the choice of predictor variables used to estimate the SC weights. We show that such lack of speci c guidances provides signi cant opportunities for the researcher to search for speci cations with statistically signi cant results, undermining one of the main advantages of the method. Considering six alternative speci cations commonly used in SC applications, we calculate in Monte Carlo simulations the probability of nding a statistically signi cant result at 5% in at least one speci cation. We nd that this probability can be as high as 13% (23% for a 10% signi cance test) when there are 12 pre-intervention periods and decay slowly with the number of pre-intervention periods. With 230 pre-intervention periods, this probability is still around 10% (18% for a 10% signi cance test). We show that the speci cation that uses the average pre-treatment outcome values to estimate the weights performed particularly bad in our simulations. However, the speci cation-searching problem remains relevant even when we do not consider this speci cation. We also show that this speci cation-searching problem is relevant in simulations with real datasets looking at placebo interventions in the Current Population Survey (CPS). In order to mitigate this problem, we propose a criterion to select among SC di erent speci cations based on the prediction error of each speci cations in placebo estimations

Statistical modelling of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Extreme rainfall events have triggered a significant number of flash floods in Madeira Island along its past and recent history. Madeira is a volcanic island where the spatial rainfall distribution is strongly affected by its rugged topography. In this thesis, annual maximum of daily rainfall data from 25 rain gauge stations located in Madeira Island were modelled by the generalised extreme value distribution. Also, the hypothesis of a Gumbel distribution was tested by two methods and the existence of a linear trend in both distributions parameters was analysed. Estimates for the 50– and 100–year return levels were also obtained. Still in an univariate context, the assumption that a distribution function belongs to the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution for monthly maximum rainfall data was tested for the rainy season. The available data was then analysed in order to find the most suitable domain of attraction for the sampled distribution. In a different approach, a search for thresholds was also performed for daily rainfall values through a graphical analysis. In a multivariate context, a study was made on the dependence between extreme rainfall values from the considered stations based on Kendall’s τ measure. This study suggests the influence of factors such as altitude, slope orientation, distance between stations and their proximity of the sea on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall. Groups of three pairwise associated stations were also obtained and an adjustment was made to a family of extreme value copulas involving the Marshall–Olkin family, whose parameters can be written as a function of Kendall’s τ association measures of the obtained pairs.

Prevalência de sintomas do climatério em mulheres dos meios rural e urbano no Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

OBJETIVO: avaliar a sintomatologia climatérica e fatores relacionados entre mulheres dos meios urbano e rural do Rio Grande do Norte. MÉTODOS: estudo transversal, descritivo, envolvendo casuística de 261 mulheres climatéricas residentes em Natal e Mossoró (grupo urbano; n=130) e Uruaçu, em São Gonçalo do Amarante (grupo rural; n=131). A sintomatologia climatérica foi avaliada pelo Índice Menopausal de Blatt-Kupperman (IMBK) e Escala Climatérica de Greene (ECG). A análise estatística constou de comparações das medianas dos escores entre os grupos e regressão logística. Defi niram-se como “muito sintomáticas” as pacientes com escores ≥20, para ambos instrumentos (variável dependente). As variáveis independentes foram: idade, procedência, alfabetização, obesidade e prática de atividade física. RESULTADOS: o grupo urbano apresentou escores signifi cativamente superiores ao grupo rural, tanto para o IMBK (medianas de 26,0 e 17,0, respectivamente; p<0,0001), quanto para a ECG (medianas de 27,0 e 16,0, respectivamente; p<0,0001). Na amostra total, evidenciou-se que 56,3% (n=147) das mulheres foram classifi cadas como “muito sintomáticas”. Na comparação intergrupos, essa prevalência foi signifi cativamente mais elevada nas mulheres urbanas em relação às rurais (79,2 e 33,6%, respectivamente; p<0,05). Pela análise de regressão logística, evidenciou-se que a chance de pertencer ao grupo defi nido como “muito sintomáticas” foi maior para mulheres do meio urbano [odds ratio ajustado (OR)=7,1; 95% intervalo de confi ança a 95% (IC95%)=3,69-13,66] e alfabetizadas (OR=2,19; IC95%=1,16-4,13). A idade superior a 60 anos associou-se com menor chance de ocorrência de sintomas signifi cativos (OR=0,38; IC95%=0,17-0,87). CONCLUSÕES: a prevalência de sintomas climatéricos signifi cativos é menor em mulheres do meio rural, demonstrando que fatores socioculturais e ambientais estão fortemente relacionados ao surgimento dos sintomas climatéricos em nossa população.___________________________________ABSTRACT PURPOSE: to evaluate climacteric symptoms and related factors in women living in rural and urban areas of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. METHODS: a cross-sectional study involving 261 women in the climacteric was performed. A total of 130 women from Natal and Mossoró (urban group) and 131 from Uruaçu, in São Gonçalo do Amarante (rural group), were studied. Climacteric symptoms were assessed by the Blatt-Kupperman Menopausal Index (BKMI) and Greene Climacteric Scale (GCE). Statistical analysis involved comparison of median between groups and logistic regression analysis. Patients were defi ned as “very symptomatic” when the climacteric score was ≥20 for both questionnaires (dependent variable). Independent variables were: age, living area, schooling, obesity and physical activity. RESULTS: the urban group had signifi cantly higher scores than those of the rural group, both for BKMI (median of 26.0 and 17.0, respectively; p<0.0001) and for GCE (median of 27.0 and 16.0, respectively; p<0.0001). For the entire sample, a total of 56.3% (n=147) of the women were classifi ed as “very symptomatic”. This prevalence was signifi cantly higher in urban than in rural women (79.2 and 33.6%, respectively; p<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that the likelihood of belonging to the group defi ned as “very symptomatic” was greater for urban women [adjusted odds ratio (OR)=7.1; confi dence interval at 95% (95%CI)=3.69-13.66] who were literate (OR=2.19; 95%CI=1.16- 4.13). Individuals over the age of 60 years had less chance of having signifi cant symptoms (OR=0.38; 95%CI=0.17-0.87). CONCLUSIONS: the prevalence of signifi cant climacteric symptoms is less in women from a rural environment, showing that sociocultural and environmental factors are strongly related to the appearance of climacteric symptoms in our population

Prevalence of orofacial clefts and social factors in Brazil

RODRIGUES, Katamara et al. Prevalence of orofacial clefts and social factors in Brazil. Brazilian oral research, v.23, n. 1, p. 38-42, 2009.Disponivel em: . Acesso em: 04 out. 2010.

Bacteriologic investigation of the effects of sodium hypochlorite and chlorhexidine during the endodontic treatment of teeth with apical periodontitis

SIQUEIRA JR. et al. Bacteriologic investigation of the effects of sodium hypochlorite and chlorhexidine during the endodontic treatment of teeth with apical periodontitis. Oral Surg. Oral Med. Oral Pathol. Oral Radiol. Endod., v. 104, n. 1, p. 122-130, 2007.

Prevalence of helicobacter pylori infection in advanced gastric carcinoma

There is substantial evidence that infection with Helicobacter pylori plays a role in the development of gastric cancer and that it is rarely found in gastric biopsy of atrophic gastritis and gastric cancer. On advanced gastric tumors, the bacteria can be lost from the stomach. Aims - To analyze the hypothesis that the prevalence of H.pylori in operated advanced gastric carcinomas and adjacent non-tumor tissues is high, comparing intestinal and diffuse tumors according to Lauren’s classifi cation. Methods - A prospective controlled study enrolled 56 patients from “Hospital Universitário”, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN, Brazil, with advanced gastric cancer, treated from February 2000 to March 2003. Immediately after partial gastrectomy, the resected stomach was opened and several mucosal biopsy samples were taken from the gastric tumor and from the adjacent mucosa within 4 cm distance from the tumor margin. Tissue sections were stained with hematoxylin and eosin. Lauren‘s classifi cation for gastric cancer was used, to analyse the prevalence of H. pylori in intestinal or diffuse carcinomas assessed by the urease rapid test, IgG by ELISA and Giemsa staining. H. pylori infected patients were treated with omeprazole, clarithromycin and amoxicillin for 7 days. Follow-up endoscopy and serology were performed 6 months after treatment to determine successful eradication of H. pylori in non-tumor tissue. Thereafter, follow-up endoscopies were scheduled annually. Chi-square and MacNemar tests with 0.05 signifi cance were used. Results - Thirty-four tumors (60.7%) were intestinal-type and 22 (39.3%) diffuse type carcinomas. In adjacent non-tumor gastric mucosa, chronic gastritis were found in 53 cases (94.6%) and atrophic mucosa in 36 patients (64.3%). All the patients with atrophic mucosa were H. pylori positive. When examined by Giemsa and urease test, H. pylori positive rate in tumor tissue of intestinal type carcinomas was higher than that in diffuse carcinomas. In tumor tissues, 34 (60.7%) H. pylori-positive in gastric carcinomas were detected by Giemsa method. H. pylori was observed in 30 of 56 cases (53.5%) in tissues 4 cm adjacent to tumors. This difference was not signifi cant. Eradication of H. pylori in non-tumor tissue of gastric remnant led to a complete negativity on the 12th postoperative month. Conclusions - The data confi rmed the hypothesis of a high prevalence of H. pylori in tumor tissue of gastric advanced carcinomas and in adjacent non-tumor mucosa of operated stomachs. The presence of H. pylori was predominant in the intestinal-type carcinoma

Biodistribution of the radiophamarceutical sodium pertechnetate (Na99mTcO4) after massive small bowel resection in rats

To evaluate the biodistribution of sodium pertecnetate (Na99mTcO4) in organs and tissues, the morphometry of remnant intestinal mucosa and ponderal evolution in rats subjected to massive resection of the small intestine. Methods: Twenty-one Wistar rats were randomly divided into three groups of 7 animals each. The short bowel (SB) group was subjected to massive resection of the small intestine; the control group (C) rats were not operated on, and soft intestinal handling was performed in sham rats. The animals were weighed weekly. On the 30th postoperative day, 0.l mL of Na99mTcO4, with mean activity of 0.66 MBq was injected intravenously into the orbital plexus. After 30 minutes, the rats were killed with an overdose of anesthetic, and fragments of the liver, spleen, pancreas, stomach, duodenum, small intestine, thyroid, lung, heart, kidney, bladder, muscle, femur and brain were harvested. The biopsies were washed with 0.9% NaCl.,The radioactivity was counted using Gama Counter WizardTM 1470, PerkinElmer. The percentage of radioactivity per gram of tissue (%ATI-g) was calculated. Biopsies of the remaining jejunum were analysed by HE staining to obtain mucosal thickness. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the Tukey test for multiple comparisons were used, considering p<0.05 as signifi cant. Results: There were no signifi cant differences in %ATI-g of the Na99mTcO4 in the organs of the groups studied (p>0.05). An increase in the weight of the SB rats was observed after the second postoperative week. The jejunal mucosal thickness of the SB rats was signifi cantly greater than that of C and sham rats (p<0.05). Conclusion: In rats with experimentally-produced short bowel syndrome, an adaptive response by the intestinal mucosa reduced weight loss. The biodistribution of Na99mTcO4 was not affected by massive intestinal resection, suggesting that short bowel syndrome is not the cause of misleading interpretation, if an examination using this radiopharmaceutical is indicated

Naps in school can enhance the duration of declarative memories learned by adolescents

Sleep helps the consolidation of declarative memories in the laboratory, but the pro-mnemonic effect of daytime naps in schools is yet to be fully characterized. While a few studies indicate that sleep can indeed benefit school learning, it remains unclear how best to use it. Here we set out to evaluate the influence of daytime naps on the duration of declarative memories learned in school by students of 10–15 years old. A total of 584 students from 6th grade were investigated. Students within a regular classroom were exposed to a 15-min lecture on new declarative contents, absent from the standard curriculum for this age group. The students were then randomly sorted into nap and non-nap groups. Students in the nap group were conducted to a quiet room with mats, received sleep masks and were invited to sleep. At the same time, students in the non-nap group attended regular school classes given by their usual teacher (Experiment I), or English classes given by another experimenter (Experiment II). These 2 versions of the study differed in a number of ways. In Experiment I (n = 371), students were pre-tested on lecture-related contents before the lecture, were invited to nap for up to 2 h, and after 1, 2, or 5 days received surprise tests with similar content but different wording and question order. In Experiment II (n = 213), students were invited to nap for up to 50 min (duration of a regular class); surprise tests were applied immediately after the lecture, and repeated after 5, 30, or 110 days. Experiment I showed a significant ∼10% gain in test scores for both nap and non-nap groups 1 day after learning, in comparison with pre-test scores. This gain was sustained in the nap group after 2 and 5 days, but in the non-nap group it decayed completely after 5 days. In Experiment II, the nap group showed significantly higher scores than the non-nap group at all times tested, thus precluding specific conclusions. The results suggest that sleep can be used to enhance the duration of memory contents learned in school.

Acesso à justiça enquanto direito fundamental: efetivação pela defensoria pública

The Federal Constitution of 1988 is recognized for its enlargement in the face of large amount of provisions that make it up, among which many are fundamental rights. The fundamental rules set up the foundation of a democratic state, however, are the necessary legal mechanisms to be effective, its exercise is not enough merely to state them, but to offer ways for them to stop being just written standard on paper, and come to be viewed and exercised day-to-day. In this sense, access to justice presents itself in our times, as a cornerstone for a just society dictates. In this light, access to justice can be seen as the most fundamental of rights, which translates as instruments able to safeguard the fundamental rights not only against the action/omission violating the state but also the very particular. Furthermore, access to justice within the legal country, is not right for everyone, despite the willingness of the Citizen Charter in its article 5, paragraph LXXIV, ensuring that the State shall provide full and free legal assistance to those in need. More than half of the population lives in poverty and can´t afford to pay legal fees or court costs as well as a bump in their own ignorance of their rights. The judiciary, in their primary function, is in charge of trying to correct the violation of the rights, intending to effect a true distributive justice, serving as a paradigm for the promotion of substantive equality of human beings, however, is difficult and tortuous access Justice for those without financial resources. In this vein, we present the Public Defender, as keeper of the masses in its institutional role, defending a disadvantage, in the words, as a mechanism for effective access to justice, ensuring therefore fundamental rights. Public Defenders arise at the time or much discussion highlights the priority of actual access to justice, custody, therefore, intimate bond with the pursuit of fundamental rights, in which, that advance the broad range of rights, without whom could defend them or guardianship them