Cost effectiveness of shortening screening interval or extending age range of NHS breast screening programme: computer simulation study

Objective: To compare the cost effectiveness of two possible modifications to the current UK screening programme: shortening the screening interval from three to two years and extending the age of invitation to a final screen from 64 to 69.

Hyperplane arrangements, interval orders, and trees.

A hyperplane arrangement is a finite set of hyperplanes in a real affine space. An especially important arrangement is the braid arrangement, which is the set of all hyperplanes xi - xj = 1, 1 interval orders and with the enumeration of trees. For instance, the number of labeled interval orders that can be obtained from n intervals I1,..., In of generic lengths is counted. There is also discussed an arrangement due to N. Linial whose number of regions is the number of alternating (or intransitive) trees, as defined by Gelfand, Graev, and Postnikov [Gelfand, I. M., Graev, M. I., and Postnikov, A. (1995), preprint]. Finally, a refinement is given, related to counting labeled trees by number of inversions, of a result of Shi [Shi, J.-Y. (1986), Lecture Notes in Mathematics, no. 1179, Springer-Verlag] that a certain deformation of the braid arrangement has (n + 1)n-1 regions.

Interval bias in 2AFC detection tasks: sorting out the artifacts

Proportion correct in two-alternative forcedchoice (2AFC) detection tasks often varies when the stimulus is presented in the first or in the second interval.Reanalysis of published data reveals that these order effects (or interval bias) are strong and prevalent, refuting the standard difference model of signal detection theory. Order effects are commonly regarded as evidence that observers use an off-center criterion under the difference model with bias. We consider an alternative difference model with indecision whereby observers are occasionally undecided and guess with some bias toward one of the response options. Whether or not the data show order effects, the two models fit 2AFC data indistinguishably, but they yield meaningfully different estimates of sensory parameters. Under indeterminacy as to which model governs 2AFC performance, parameter estimates are suspect and potentially misleading. The indeterminacy can be circumvented by modifying the response format so that observers can express indecision when needed. Reanalysis of published data collected in this way lends support to the indecision model. We illustrate alternative approaches to fitting psychometric functions under the indecision model and discuss designs for 2AFC experiments that improve the accuracy of parameter estimates, whether or not order effects are apparent in the data.

Stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios of Globigerinoides obliquus of quantitative range chart of the ostracodes in the Pliocene-Pleistocene interval of ODP Hole 107-654A

Deep-water benthic ostracodes from the Pliocene-Pleistocene interval of ODP Leg 107, Hole 654A (Tyrrhenian Sea) were studied. From a total of 106 samples, 40 species considered autochthonous were identified. Detailed investigations have established the biostratigraphic distribution of the most frequent ostracode taxa. The extinction levels of Agrenocythere pliocenica (a psychrospheric ostracode) in Hole 654A and in some Italian land sections lead to the conclusion that the removal of psychrospheric conditions took place in the Mediterranean Sea during or after the time interval corresponding to the Small Gephyrocapsa Zone (upper part of early Pleistocene), and not at the beginning of the Quaternary, as previously stated. Based on a reduced matrix of quantitative data of 63 samples and 20 variables of ostracodes, four varimax assemblages were extracted by a Q-mode factor analysis. Six factors and eight varimax assemblages were recognized from the Q-mode factor analysis of the quantitative data of 162 samples and 47 variables of the benthic foraminifers. The stratigraphic distributions of the varimax assemblages of the two faunistic groups were plotted against the calcareous plankton biostratigraphic scheme and compared in order to trace the relationship between the benthic foraminifers and ostracodes varimax assemblages. General results show that the two populations, belonging to quite different taxa, display almost coeval changes along the Pliocene-Pleistocene sequence of Hole 654A, essentially induced by paleoenvironmental modifications. Mainly on the base of the benthic foraminifer assemblages (which are quantitatively better represented than the ostracode assemblages), it is possible to identify such modifications as variations in sedimentation depth and in bottom oxygen content.

Polarity chron boundaries and interval sedimentation rates of ODP Leg 162 sites

Magnetic polarity stratigraphies for Sites 980-984 are based on shipboard measurements from the pass-through magnetometer after alternating field (AF) demagnetization at a peak field of 25 mT and shore-based stepwise AF demagnetization of discrete samples. The characteristic magnetization component was determined after AF demagnetization removed the steep downward drill-string-related magnetic overprint. Peak AF fields in the 20-30 mT range were required to resolve the component, carried by magnetite, that was used to produce unambiguous Pliocene-Pleistocene magnetic stratigraphies at all five sites. At Sites 980 and 983, magnetic stratigraphies were resolved to the base of the recovered advanced hydraulic piston corer (APC) section, which lies in the Matuyama Chron (1r.2r) and Olduvai Subchron (2n), respectively. At Sites 981 and 982, magnetization intensities decrease sharply in the normal polarity zone corresponding to the Gauss Chron (2An), and magnetic stratigraphies below this level could not be resolved. At Site 984, the resolution of magnetic stratigraphy was curtailed at ~250 meters below seafloor (Olduvai Subchron) by core deformation at the base of the APC section and in the underlying extended core barrel section. As the magnetic stratigraphies at all four sites are unequivocal, polarity chron interpretations can be made without aid from the biostratigraphy. Mean sedimentation rates within polarity chrons have been calculated and Pliocene-Pleistocene biomagnetostratigraphic correlations tested.

Distribution of calcareous nannofossils in the Miocene interval of DSDP Hole 94-608 in the north Atlantic (Fig. 1)

DSDP North Atlantic Site 608 yielded an excellent Miocene pelagic section which affords a further opportunity for elucidating the chronology of the calcareous nannofossil succession in the framework of magnetostratigraphic control. Most of the conventional (zonal) markers have been documented for this site and some of the earlier results are confirmed and refined. In addition several unconventional and less known markers have been added. The first two are the highest (last) occurrence of Sphenolithus delphix and Sphenolithus capricornutus at 23.6 Ma, which is immediately above the Oligocene-Miocene boundary as identified by the last occurrence of Reticulofenestra bisecta at 23.7 Ma. The next unconventional datum is the highest (last) occurrence of Ilselithina fusa at 22.8 Ma, which is also the highest (last) occurrence of Helicosphaera recta. Calcidiscus tropicus' lowest (first) occurrence is at 19.5 Ma, which is also the lowest occurrence of Sphenolithus belemnos, and Calcidiscus leptoporus' lowest (first) occurrence coincides with that of Sphenolithus heteromorphus at 18.5 Ma. Sphenolithus dissimilis' highest (last) occurrence is at 18.2 Ma and the Calcidiscus premacintyrei lowest (first) and highest (last) occurrences are, respectively, at 17.7 and 11.7 Ma. Discoaster braarudii occurs from 11.6 to 11.3 Ma and its highest (last) occurrence corresponds to that of Cyclicargolithus floridanus. Minylitha convallis occurs from 9.0 to 6.9 Ma. Within the range of Minylitha, at 8.0 Ma, a major shift occurs in reticulofenestrid placoliths from dominantly large (Reticulofenestra pseudoumbilicus) and medium size (Reticulofenestra minutula) species below to significant numbers of very small species (Dictyococcites productus and Gephyrocapsa) above. This is interpreted to be a major, though perhaps seasonal, change of productivity of the North Atlantic at Site 608. A new genus and species Cryptococcolithus takayamae, is described and a variety, Reticulofenestra pseudoumbilicus var. amplus is identified.