904 resultados para Box-Jenkins forecasting


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There is a growing recognition among wildlife managers that focusing management on wildlife often provides a temporary fix to human–wildlife conflicts, whereas changing human behavior can provide long-term solutions. Human dimensions research of wildlife conflicts frequently focuses on stakeholders’ characteristics, problem identification, and acceptability of management, and less frequently on human behavior and evaluation of management actions to change that behavior. Consequently, little information exists to assess overall success of management. We draw on our experience studying human–bear conflicts, and argue for more human dimensions studies that focus on change in human behavior to measure management success. We call for help from social scientists to conduct applied experiments utilizing two methods, direct observation and self-reported data, to measure change in behavior. We are optimistic these approaches will help fill the managers’ tool box and lead to better integration of human dimensions into human–wildlife conflict management.

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Plans and instructions for building a “Two-chamber Rocket Box” bat-house to accommodate large numbers (>200) of bats. See further: http://www.batcon.org/educatorsK/pdfs/fof_bathouse.pdf

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Mutations in the coding region of telomerase complex genes can result in accelerated telomere attrition and human disease. Manifestations of telomere disease include the bone marrow failure syndromes dyskeratosis congenita and aplastic anemia, acute myeloid leukemia, liver cirrhosis, and pulmonary fibrosis. Here, we describe a mutation in the CCAAT box (GCAAT) of the TERC gene promoter in a family in which multiple members had typical features of telomeropathy. The genetic alteration in this critical regulatory sequence resulted in reduced reporter gene activity and absent binding of transcription factor NF-Y, likely responsible for reduced TERC levels, decreased telomerase activity, and short telomeres. This is the first description of a pathogenic mutation in the highly con-served CCAAT box and the first instance of a mutation in the promoter region of TERC producing a telomeropathy. We propose that current mutation-screening strategies should include gene promoter regions for the diagnosis of telomere diseases. This clinical trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00071045. (Blood. 2012;119(13):3060-3063)

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Brazil is the largest sugarcane producer in the world and has a privileged position to attend to national and international market places. To maintain the high production of sugarcane, it is fundamental to improve the forecasting models of crop seasons through the use of alternative technologies, such as remote sensing. Thus, the main purpose of this article is to assess the results of two different statistical forecasting methods applied to an agroclimatic index (the water requirement satisfaction index; WRSI) and the sugarcane spectral response (normalized difference vegetation index; NDVI) registered on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) satellite images. We also evaluated the cross-correlation between these two indexes. According to the results obtained, there are meaningful correlations between NDVI and WRSI with time lags. Additionally, the adjusted model for NDVI presented more accurate results than the forecasting models for WRSI. Finally, the analyses indicate that NDVI is more predictable due to its seasonality and the WRSI values are more variable making it difficult to forecast.

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This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

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The filamentous fungus Aspergillus nidulans has been used as a fungal model system to study the regulation of xylanase production. These genes are activated at transcriptional level by the master regulator the transcriptional factor XInR and repressed by carbon catabolite repression (CCR) mediated by the wide-domain repressor CreA. Here, we screened a collection of 42 A. nidulans F-box deletion mutants grown either in xylose or xylan as the single carbon source in the presence of the glucose analog 2-deoxy-D-glucose, aiming to identify mutants that have deregulated xylanase induction. We were able to recognize a null mutant in a gene (fbxA) that has decreased xylanase activity and reduced xInA and xInD mRNA accumulation. The Delta fbxA mutant interacts genetically with creAd-30, creB15, and creC27 mutants. FbxA is a novel protein containing a functional F-box domain that binds to Skp1 from the SCF-type ligase. Blastp analysis suggested that FbxA is a protein exclusive from fungi, without any apparent homologs in higher eukaryotes. Our work emphasizes the importance of the ubiquitination in the A. nidulans xylanase induction and CCR. The identification of FbxA provides another layer of complexity to xylanase induction and CCR phenomena in filamentous fungi. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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This work aimed at evaluating the spray congealing method for the production of microparticles of carbamazepine combined with a polyoxylglyceride carrier. In addition, the influence of the spray congealing conditions on the improvement of drug solubility was investigated using a three-factor, three-level Box-Behnken design. The factors studied were the cooling air flow rate, atomizing pressure, and molten dispersion feed rate. Dependent variables were the yield, solubility, encapsulation efficiency, particle size, water activity, and flow properties. Statistical analysis showed that only the yield was affected by the factors studied. The characteristics of the microparticles were evaluated using X-ray powder diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, and hot-stage microscopy. The results showed a spherical morphology and changes in the crystalline state of the drug. The microparticles were obtained with good yields and encapsulation efficiencies, which ranged from 50 to 80% and 99.5 to 112%, respectively. The average size of the microparticles ranged from 17.7 to 39.4 mu m, the water activities were always below 0.5, and flowability was good to moderate. Both the solubility and dissolution rate of carbamazepine from the spray congealed microparticles were remarkably improved. The carbamazepine solubility showed a threefold increase and dissolution profile showed a twofold increase after 60 min compared to the raw drug. The Box-Behnken fractional factorial design proved to be a powerful tool to identify the best conditions for the manufacture of solid dispersion microparticles by spray congealing.

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The calico box crab Hepatus epheliticus is an abundant species from shallow and continental shelf waters of the Atlantic coast of USA and Mexico. Information about population structure and sexual maturity is absent, even though this crab is caught to be used as bait for the octopus fishery in the Campeche Bank, Mexico. In order to achieve such information, a total of 768 individuals were collected from January to March 2010 through baited traps installed in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Our results showed that sex ratio is biased towards more males than females (1:0.55), contradicting to that reported in other brachyuran crabs. The absence of ovigerous females suggests that they did not enter into the traps during embryogenesis. Males reached a larger maximum size than females (64.0 +/- 6.15 and 58.4 +/- 5.60 mm carapace width, respectively). The general scheme of growth being positive allometric throughout ontogeny of both sexes. Males presented a transition phase from juveniles to adult corresponding to the puberty moult. The estimation of the onset of functional sexual maturity revealed a steady situation for the population, with 21.5 and 13.8% of males and females, respectively, morphologically immature at the time of catch. This study constitutes the first report on population structure and sexual maturity in a population of the calico box crab H. epheliticus.

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AIMS: Solute carrier 2a2 (Slc2a2) gene codifies the glucose transporter GLUT2, a key protein for glucose flux in hepatocytes and renal epithelial cells of proximal tubule. In diabetes mellitus, hepatic and tubular glucose output has been related to Slc2a2/GLUT2 overexpression; and controlling the expression of this gene may be an important adjuvant way to improve glycemic homeostasis. Thus, the present study investigated transcriptional mechanisms involved in the diabetes-induced overexpression of the Slc2a2 gene. MAIN METHODS: Hepatocyte nuclear factors 1α and 4α (HNF-1α and HNF-4α), forkhead box A2 (FOXA2), sterol regulatory element binding protein-1c (SREBP-1c) and the CCAAT-enhancer-binding protein (C/EBPβ) mRNA expression (RT-PCR) and binding activity into the Slc2a2 promoter (electrophoretic mobility assay) were analyzed in the liver and kidney of diabetic and 6-day insulin-treated diabetic rats. KEY FINDINGS: Slc2a2/GLUT2 expression increased by more than 50% (P<0.001) in the liver and kidney of diabetic rats, and 6-day insulin treatment restores these values to those observed in non-diabetic animals. Similarly, the mRNA expression and the binding activity of HNF-1α, HNF-4α and FOXA2 increased by 50 to 100% (P<0.05 to P<0.001), also returning to values of non-diabetic rats after insulin treatment. Neither the Srebf1 and Cebpb mRNA expression, nor the SREBP-1c and C/EBP-β binding activity was altered in diabetic rats. SIGNIFICANCE: HNF-1α, HNF-4α and FOXA2 transcriptional factors are involved in diabetes-induced overexpression of Slc2a2 gene in the liver and kidney. These data point out that these transcriptional factors are important targets to control GLUT2 expression in these tissues, which can contribute to glycemic homeostasis in diabetes.

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[EN] Background: Spain has gone from a surplus to a shortage of medical doctors in very few years. Medium and long-term planning for health professionals has become a high priority for health authorities. Methods: We created a supply and demand/need simulation model for 43 medical specialties using system dynamics. The model includes demographic, education and labour market variables. Several scenarios were defined. Variables controllable by health planners can be set as parameters to simulate different scenarios. The model calculates the supply and the deficit or surplus. Experts set the ratio of specialists needed per 1000 inhabitants with a Delphi method. Results: In the scenario of the baseline model with moderate population growth, the deficit of medical specialists will grow from 2% at present (2800 specialists) to 14.3% in 2025 (almost 21 000). The specialties with the greatest medium-term shortages are Anesthesiology, Orthopedic and Traumatic Surgery, Pediatric Surgery, Plastic Aesthetic and Reparatory Surgery, Family and Community Medicine, Pediatrics, Radiology, and Urology. Conclusions: The model suggests the need to increase the number of students admitted to medical school. Training itineraries should be redesigned to facilitate mobility among specialties. In the meantime, the need to make more flexible the supply in the short term is being filled by the immigration of physicians from new members of the European Union and from Latin America.

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Nella presente tesi viene affrontato il comportamento di materiali granulari sotto carico dinamico. In particolare, viene presentata la sperimentazione di laboratorio seguita presso il Nottingham Transportation Engineering Centre dell'Università di Nottingham, la costruzione del box test e le prove dinamiche eseguite sul materiale granulare rinforzato e non.

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[EN]This paper describes a wildfi re forecasting application based on a 3D virtual environment and a fi re simulation engine. A novel open source framework is presented for the development of 3D graphics applications over large geographic areas, off ering high performance 3D visualization and powerful interaction tools for the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) community. The application includes a remote module that allows simultaneous connection of several users for monitoring a real wildfi re event.