Sampling sites, sampled birds and plants of young larch plantations in Tokachi district, eastern Hokkaido, northern Japan, 2011

Models and data used to describe species-area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species-area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species-area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density-area relationships and occurrence probability-area relationships can alter the form of species-area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied to a variety of study designs and allows the inclusion of additional environmental covariates.

A single response mechanism is responsible for evolutionary adaptive variation in a bird’s laying date

Many proximate factors determine a bird’s laying date, including environmental and social stimuli as well as individual responses to internal and external factors. However, the relative importance of these factors has not been experimentally demonstrated. Here we show that (i) large differences in the onset of first clutches between different populations result from variation in different responses to photoperiod and not from variation in responses to any other proximate factors and (ii) the same response mechanism causes maladaptive laying dates in habitats modified by humans. We present, to our knowledge, the first experimental demonstration that a single response mechanism is responsible for evolutionary adaptive intraspecific variation in a vertebrate life history trait.