Approximate Bayesian techniques for inference in stochastic dynamical systems

This thesis is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variant of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here two new extended frameworks are derived and presented that are based on basis function expansions and local polynomial approximations of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. It is shown that the new extensions converge to the original variational algorithm and can be used for state estimation (smoothing). However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new methods are numerically validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, for which the exact likelihood can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz '63 (3-dimensional model). The algorithms are also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz '96 system. In this investigation these new approaches are compared with a variety of other well known methods such as the ensemble Kalman filter / smoother, a hybrid Monte Carlo sampler, the dual unscented Kalman filter (for jointly estimating the systems states and model parameters) and full weak-constraint 4D-Var. Empirical analysis of their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases is provided.

Optical fibre sensors with applications in gas and biological sensing

This thesis describes the study of various grating based optical fibre sensors for applications in refractive index sensing. The sensitivity of these sensors has been studied and in some cases enhanced using novel techniques. The major areas of development are as follows. The sensitivity of long period gratings (LPGs) to surrounding medium refractive index (SRI) for various periods was investigated. The most sensitive period of LPG was found to be around 160 µm and this was due to the core mode coupling to a single cladding mode but phase matching at two wavelength locations, creating two attenuation peaks, close to the waveguide dispersion turning point. Large angle tilted fibre gratings (TFGs) have similar behaviour to LPGs, in that they couple to the co-propagating cladding modes. The tilted structure of the index modulation within the core of the fibre gives rise to a polarisation dependency, differing the large angle TFG from a LPG. Since the large angle TFG couple to the cladding mode they are SRI sensitive, the sensitivity to SRI can be further increased through cladding etching using HF acid. The thinning of the cladding layer caused a reordering of the cladding modes and shifted to more SRI sensitive cladding modes as the investigation discovered. In a SRI range of 1.36 to 1.40 a sensitivity of 506.9 nm/URI was achieved for the etched large angle TFG, which is greater than the dual resonance LPG. UV inscribed LPGs were coated with sol-gel materials with high RIs. The high RI of the coating caused an increase in cladding mode effective index which in turn caused an increase in the LPG sensitivity to SRI. LPGs of various periods of LPG were coated with sol-gel TiO2 and the optimal thickness was found to vary for each period. By coating of the already highly SRI sensitive 160µm period LPG (which is a dual resonance) with a sol-gel TiO2, the SRI sensitivity was further increased with a peak value of 1458 nm/URI, which was an almost 3 fold increase compared to the uncoated LPG. LPGs were also inscribed using a femtosecond laser which produced a highly focused index change which was no uniform throughout the core of the optical fibre. The inscription technique gave rise to a large polarisation sensitivity and the ability to couple to multiple azimuthal cladding mode sets, not seen with uniform UV inscribed gratings. Through coupling of the core mode to multiple sets of cladding modes, attenuation peaks with opposite wavelength shifts for increasing SRI was observed. Through combining this opposite wavelength shifts, a SRI sensitivity was achieved greater than any single observed attenuations peak. The maximum SRI achieved was 1680 nm/URI for a femtosecond inscribed LPG of period 400 µm. Three different types of surface plasmon resonance (SPR) sensors with a multilayer metal top coating were investigated in D shape optical fibre. The sensors could be separated into two types, utilized a pre UV inscribed tilted Bragg grating and the other employed a post UV exposure to generate surface relief grating structure. This surface perturbation aided the out coupling of light from the core but also changed the sensing mechanism from SPR to localised surface plasmon resonance (LSPR). This greatly increased the SRI sensitivity, compared to the SPR sensors; with the gold coated top layer surface relief sensor producing the largest SRI sensitivity of 2111.5nm/URI was achieved. While, the platinum and silver coated top layer surface relief sensors also gave high SRI sensitivities but also the ability to produce resonances in air (not previously seen with the SPR sensors). These properties were employed in two applications. The silver and platinum surface relief devices were used as gas sensors and were shown to be capable of detecting the minute RI change of different gases. The calculated maximum sensitivities produced were 1882.1dB/URI and 1493.5nm/URI for silver and platinum, respectively. Using a DFB laser and power meter a cheap alternative approach was investigated which showed the ability of the sensors to distinguish between different gases and flow rates of those gases. The gold surface relief sensor was coated in a with a bio compound called an aptamer and it was able to detect various concentrations of a biological compound called Thrombin, ranging from 1mM to as low as 10fM. A solution of 2M NaCl was found to give the best stripping results for Thrombin from the aptamer and showed the reusability of the sensor. The association and disassociation constants were calculated to be 1.0638×106Ms-1 and 0.2482s-1, respectively, showing the high affinity of the Aptamer to thrombin. This supports existing working stating that aptamers could be alternative to enzymes for chemical detection and also helps to explain the low detection limit of the gold surface relief sensor.

Development of real-time process control systems using formal techniques

A major application of computers has been to control physical processes in which the computer is embedded within some large physical process and is required to control concurrent physical processes. The main difficulty with these systems is their event-driven characteristics, which complicate their modelling and analysis. Although a number of researchers in the process system community have approached the problems of modelling and analysis of such systems, there is still a lack of standardised software development formalisms for the system (controller) development, particular at early stage of the system design cycle. This research forms part of a larger research programme which is concerned with the development of real-time process-control systems in which software is used to control concurrent physical processes. The general objective of the research in this thesis is to investigate the use of formal techniques in the analysis of such systems at their early stages of development, with a particular bias towards an application to high speed machinery. Specifically, the research aims to generate a standardised software development formalism for real-time process-control systems, particularly for software controller synthesis. In this research, a graphical modelling formalism called Sequential Function Chart (SFC), a variant of Grafcet, is examined. SFC, which is defined in the international standard IEC1131 as a graphical description language, has been used widely in industry and has achieved an acceptable level of maturity and acceptance. A comparative study between SFC and Petri nets is presented in this thesis. To overcome identified inaccuracies in the SFC, a formal definition of the firing rules for SFC is given. To provide a framework in which SFC models can be analysed formally, an extended time-related Petri net model for SFC is proposed and the transformation method is defined. The SFC notation lacks a systematic way of synthesising system models from the real world systems. Thus a standardised approach to the development of real-time process control systems is required such that the system (software) functional requirements can be identified, captured, analysed. A rule-based approach and a method called system behaviour driven method (SBDM) are proposed as a development formalism for real-time process-control systems.

Effect of sample preparation on the thermal degradation of metal-added biomass

The present study investigates the effect of different sample preparation methods on the pyrolysis behaviour of metal-added biomass; Willow samples were compared in the presence of two salts of zinc and lead containing sulphate and nitrate anions which were added to the wood samples with three different techniques as dry-mixing, impregnation and ion-exchange. The effect of acid and water wash as common demineralisation pre-treatments were also analysed to evaluate their roles in the thermal degradation of the biomass. Results from thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) and pyrolysis-mass spectrometry (Py-MS) measurements indicated that these pre-treatments change the matrix and the physical-chemical properties of wood. Results suggested that these structural changes increase the thermal stability of cellulose during pyrolysis. Sample preparation was also found to be a crucial factor during pyrolysis; different anions of metal salts changed the weight loss rate curves of wood material, which indicates changes in the primary degradation process of the biomass. Results also showed that dry-mixing, impregnation or ion-exchange influence the thermal behaviour of wood in different ways when a chosen metal salt was and added to the wood material. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study on the pyrolytic behaviour of xylan-based hemicellulose using TG-FTIR and Py-GC-FTIR

Two sets of experiments, categorized as TG–FTIR and Py–GC–FTIR, are employed to investigate the mechanism of the hemicellulose pyrolysis and the formation of main gaseous and bio-oil products. The “sharp mass loss stage” and the corresponding evolution of the volatile products are examined by the TG–FTIR graphs at the heating rate of 3–80 K/min. A pyrolysis unit, composed of fluidized bed reactor, carbon filter, vapour condensing system and gas storage, is employed to investigate the products of the hemicellulose pyrolysis under different temperatures (400–690 °C) at the feeding flow rate of 600 l/h. The effects of temperature on the condensable products are examined thoroughly. The possible routes for the formation of the products are systematically proposed from the primary decomposition of the three types of unit (xylan, O-acetylxylan and 4-O-methylglucuronic acid) and the secondary reactions of the fragments. It is found that the formation of CO is enhanced with elevated temperature, while slight change is observed for the yield of CO2 which is the predominant products in the gaseous mixture.

Immunological and biochemical techniques in the analysis of tear proteins

This study is concerned with the analysis of tear proteins, paying particular attention to the state of the tears (e.g. non-stimulated, reflex, closed), created during sampling, and to assess their interactions with hydrogel contact lenses. The work has involved the use of a variety of biochemical and immunological analytical techniques for the measurement of proteins, (a), in tears, (b), on the contact lens, and (c), in the eluate of extracted lenses. Although a diverse range of tear components may contribute to contact lens spoilation, proteins were of particular interest in this study because of their theoretical potential for producing immunological reactions. Although normal host proteins in their natural state are generally not treated as dangerous or non-self, those which undergo denaturation or suffer a conformational change may provoke an excessive and unnecessary immune response. A novel on-lens cell based assay has been developed and exploited in order to study the role of the ubiquitous cell adhesion glycoprotein, vitronectin, in tears and contact lens wear under various parameters. Vitronectin, whose levels are known to increase in the closed eye environment and shown here to increase during contact lens wear, is an important immunoregulatory protein and may be a prominent marker of inflammatory activity. Immunodiffusion assays were developed and optimised for use in tear analysis, and in a series of subsequent studies used for example in the measurement of albumin, lactoferrin, IgA and IgG. The immunodiffusion assays were then applied in the estimation of the closed eye environment; an environment which has been described as sustaining a state of sub-clinical inflammation. The role and presence of a lesser understood and investigated protein, kininogen, was also estimated, in particular, in relation to contact lens wear. Difficulties arise when attempting to extract proteins from the contact lens in order to examine the individual nature of the proteins involved. These problems were partly alleviated with the use of the on-lens cell assay and a UV spectrophotometry assay, which can analyse the lens surface and bulk respectively, the latter yielding only total protein values. Various lens extraction methods were investigated to remove protein from the lens and the most efficient was employed in the analysis of lens extracts. Counter immunoelectrophoresis, an immunodiffusion assay, was then applied to the analysis of albumin, lactoferrin, IgA and IgG in the resultant eluates.

Synthesis and characterisation of vinyl block copolymers

A study has been made of the anionic polymerisation of methyl methacrylate using butyllithium and polystyryl lithium as initiators and the effects of lithium chloride and aluminium alkyls on the molecular weight and molecular weight distributions. Diblock copolymers of styrene-b-methyl methacrylate were synthesised at -78oC in THF in the presence of lithium chloride, and at ambient temperatures in toluene in the presence of aluminium alkyls. Studies in the presence of lithium chloride showed that the polymerisation was difficult to control; there was no conclusive evidence of a living system and the polydispersity indices were between 1.5 and 3. However, using relatively apolar solvents, in the presence of aluminium alkyls, homopolymerisation of methyl methacrylate showed characteristics of a living polymerisation. An investigation of the effects of the structures of the lithium and aluminium alkyls on the efficiency of initiation showed that a t-butyllithium/triisobutylaluminium initiating system exhibited an efficiency of 80%, compared with lower efficiencies (typically 30%) for systems based on butyllithium/triethylaluminium.The polydispersity index was found to decrease from ∼2.2 to ∼1.5 when butyllithium was replaced by t-butyllithium. The efficiency of the initiator was found to be solely dependent on the size of the alkyl group of the aluminium component, whereas the polydispersity index was found to be solely dependent on the size of the alkyl group on the lithium component. The aluminium alkyl is thought to be co-ordinated to the ester carbonyl groups of both the monomer and polymer. There is a critical degree of polymerisation, at which point the rate of polymerisation decreases, which probably relates to a change in structure of the active chain end. Characterisation of poly(styrene )-b-poly(4-vinylpyridine) and poly(styrene)-b-poly(4-vinylpyridine methyl iodide) diblock copolymers using static light scattering techniques, showed the formation of star-shaped 'reverse' micelles when placed in toluene. Temperature effects on micellization behaviour are only exhibited for the unquaternised micelles, which showed characterisically lower aggregation numbers than their quaternised counterparts. A suitable solvent was not obtained for characterisation of the styrene-b-methyl methacrylate diblock copolymers synthesized.

Analytical techniques for the study of soft contact lens spoilation

Soft contact lens wear has become a common phenomenon in recent times. The contact lens when placed in the eye rapidly undergoes change. A film of biological material builds up on and in the lens matrix. The long term wear characteristics of the lens ultimately depend on this process. With time distinct structures made up of biological material have been found to build up on the lens. A fuller understanding of this process and how it relates to the lens chemistry could lead to contact lenses that are better tolerated by the eye. The tear film is a complex biological fluid, it is this fluid that bathes the lens during wear. It is reasonable to suppose that it is material derived from this source that accumulates on the lens. To understand this phenomenon it was decided to investigate the make up and conformation of the protein species that are found on and in the lens. As inter individual variations in tear fluid composition have been found it is important to be able to study the proteins on a single lens. Many of the analytical techniques used in bio research are not suitable for this study because of the lack of sensitivity. Work with poly acrylamide electrophoresis showed the possibility of analyzing the proteins extracted from a single lens. The development of a biotin avidin electro-blot and an enzyme linked aniibody electro-blot, lead to the high sensitivity detection and identification of the proteins present. The extraction of proteins from a lens is always incomplete. A method that analyses the proteins in situ would be a great advancement. Fourier transform infra red microscopy was developed to a point where a thin section of a contact lens could yield information about the proteins present and their conformation. The three dimensional structure of the gross macroscopic structures termed white spots was investigated using confocal laser microscopy.

The hydrodynamic behaviour and mass transfer characteristics of single droplets in a pulsed sieve plate column

The literature relating to the performance of pulsed sieve plate liquid-liquid extraction columns and the relevant hydrodynamic phenomenon have been surveyed. Hydrodynamic behaviour and mass transfer characteristics of droplets in turbulent and non-turbulent conditions have also been reviewed. Hydrodynamic behaviour, i.e. terminal and characteristic velocity of droplets, droplet size and droplet breakup processes, and mass transfer characteristics of single droplets (d≤0.6 cm) were investigated under pulsed (mixer-settler & transitional regimes) and non-pulsed conditions in a 5.0 cm diameter, 100 cm high, pulsed sieve plate column with three different sieve plate types and variable plate spacing. The system used was toluene (displaced) - acetone - distilled water. Existing photographic techniques for following and recording the droplet behaviour, and for observing the parameters of the pulse and the pulse shape were further developed and improved. A unique illumination technique was developed by which a moving droplet could be photographed using cine or video photography with good contrast without using any dye. Droplet size from a given nozzle and droplet velocity for a given droplet diameter are reduced under pulsing condition, and it was noted that this effect is enhanced in the presence of sieve plate. The droplet breakup processes are well explained by reference to an impact-breakup mechanism. New correlations to predict droplet diameter based on this mechanism are given below.vskip 1.0cm or in dimensionless groups as follows:- (We)crit= 3.12 - 1.79 (Eo)crit A correlation based on the isotropic turbulence theory was developed to calculate droplet diameter in the emulsion regime.vskip 1.0cm Experimental results show that in the mixer-settler and transitional regimes, pulsing parameters had little effect on the overall dispersed phase mass transfer coefficient during the droplet formation and unhindered travel periods.

The design of fault tolerant software for loosely coupled distributed systems

Requirements for systems to continue to operate satisfactorily in the presence of faults has led to the development of techniques for the construction of fault tolerant software. This thesis addresses the problem of error detection and recovery in distributed systems which consist of a set of communicating sequential processes. A method is presented for the `a priori' design of conversations for this class of distributed system. Petri nets are used to represent the state and to solve state reachability problems for concurrent systems. The dynamic behaviour of the system can be characterised by a state-change table derived from the state reachability tree. Systematic conversation generation is possible by defining a closed boundary on any branch of the state-change table. By relating the state-change table to process attributes it ensures all necessary processes are included in the conversation. The method also ensures properly nested conversations. An implementation of the conversation scheme using the concurrent language occam is proposed. The structure of the conversation is defined using the special features of occam. The proposed implementation gives a structure which is independent of the application and is independent of the number of processes involved. Finally, the integrity of inter-process communications is investigated. The basic communication primitives used in message passing systems are seen to have deficiencies when applied to systems with safety implications. Using a Petri net model a boundary for a time-out mechanism is proposed which will increase the integrity of a system which involves inter-process communications.

A post-structural analysis of perceptions and experiences of continuity and change within the UK automotive supplier base

Firms acting as suppliers to the British automotive industry have a long history of so doing, with some evidencing histories that predate even the invention of the motor car. In exploring the challenges faced by the descendants of these firms in the 1990s, a review is undertaken of the bodies of literature surrounding the changes wrought through the increased globalisation of the industry; the impact of new manufacturing technologies and techniques; the rising levels of co-operation between firms; and the growing impact of the automotive 'service sector'. Moreover, an exploration is undertaken of the perceived 'realities' of the automotive industry as constructed through discourse, including the ways in which discourse effects a continual reinterpretation and re-evaluation of the historical evolution of the industry. Attention is focused on the implications of the above for the automotive supply chain, and the means for its rationalisation proposed by the major car manufacturers and their partner-suppliers. Post-structuralist approaches are introduced as part of an attempt to establish and appropriate research methodology that can explore and deconstruct the discourses surrounding 'modernity', 'supply chain rationalisation', 'flexible specialisation' and 'globalisation' within the automotive industry. Analytical research is conducted into the small- to medium-sized business that constitute the majority of the supplier base in the United Kingdom, and the findings of this research are compared with those of a similar study conducted a quarter-century ago. In this way, the relationships of these firms with their customers, suppliers, and peers are investigated, as are their perceptions of a changing marketplace and their reactions to the impact of policies such as the 'supply chain rationalisation' pursued by the major automotive manufacturers. Authoritative discourses of industry form, function, and structure are challenged, with voice being granted to the marginalised: small suppliers, 'service sector' firms, or those only partly involved in the automotive industry.

Differences in market-oriented behaviour levels across firms' domestic and export marketing operations:a study of antecedents and consequences

Researchers are beginning to recognise that organisations often have different levels of market orientation across different aspects of their operations. Focusing on firms involved in export marketing, this study examines how market-oriented behaviour differs across firms' domestic and export marketing operations. In this respect, the study is the first of its kind since it investigates three main issues: (1) to what extent do differences exist in firms' levels of market-oriented behaviour in their domestic markets (i.e., their domestic market-oriented behaviour) and in their export markets (i.e., their export market-oriented behaviour), (2) what are the key drivers of such differences, and (3) what are the performance implications for firms of having different levels of domestic and export market-oriented behaviour. To shed light on these research questions, data were collected from 225 British exporting firms using a mail questionnaire. Structural equation modelling techniques were used to develop and purify measures of all construct of interest, and to test the theoretical models developed. The results indicate that many of businesses sampled have very different levels of market orientation in their domestic and exporting operations: typically, firms tend to be more market-oriented in their domestic markets relative to their export markets. Several key factors were identified as drivers of differences in market orientation levels across firms' domestic and export markets. In particular, it was found that differences were more pronounced when: (i) interfunctional interactions between domestic marketing and export marketing are rare, (ii) when domestic and export marketing follow asymmetric business strategies, (iii) when mutual dependence between the functions is low, (iv) when one or other of the functions dominates the firm's sales, and (v) when there are pronounced differences in the degree to which the domestic and the export markets are experiencing environmental turbulence. The consequences of differences in market-oriented behaviour across firms' domestic and export markets were also studied. The results indicate that overall sales performance of firms (as determined by the composite of firms' domestic sales and export sales performance) is positively related to levels of domestic market-oriented behaviour under high levels of environmental turbulence in firms' domestic markets. However, as domestic market turbulence decreases, so to does the strength of this positive relationship. On the other hand, export market-oriented behaviour provides a positive contribution to firms' overall sales success under conditions of relatively low export market turbulence. As the turbulence in export markets increases, this positive relationship becomes weaker. These findings indicate that there are numerous situations in which it is sub-optimal for firms to have identical levels of market-oriented behaviour in their domestic and exporting operations. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

A longitudinal study of Chinese managerial behaviour:an inside view of decision-making under the economic reform

This research compared decision making processes in six Chinese state-owned enterprises during the period 1985 to 1988. The research objectives were: a) To examine changes in the managerial behaviour over a period of 1985 to 1988 with a focus on decision-making; b) Through this examination, to throw light on the means by which government policies on economic reform were implemented at the enterprise level; c) To illustrate problems encountered in the decentralization programme which was a major part of China's economic reform. The research was conducted by means of intensive interviews with more than eighty managers and a survey of documents relating to specific decisions. A total of sixty cases of decision-making were selected from five decision topics: purchasing of inputs, pricing of outputs, recruitment of labour, organizational change and innovation, which occurred in 1985 (or before) and in 1988/89. Data from the interviews were used to investigate environmental conditions, relations between the enterprise and its higher authority, interactions between management and the party system, the role of information, and effectiveness of regulations and government policies on enterprise management. The analysis of the data indicates that the decision processes in the different enterprises have some similarities in regard to actor involvement, the flow of decision activities, interactions with the authorities, information usage and the effect of regulations. Comparison of the same or similar decision contents over time indicates that the achievement of decentralization varied according to the topic of decision. Managerial authority was delegated to enterprises when the authorities relaxed their control over resource allocation. When acquisition of necessary resources is dependent upon the planning system or the decision matter is sensitive, because it involves change to the institutional framework (e.g. the Party), then a high degree of centralization was retained, resulting in a marginal change in managerial behaviour. The economic reform failed to increase decision efficiency and effectiveness of decision-making. The prevailing institutional frameworks were regarded as negative to the change. The research argues that the decision process is likely to be more contingent on the decision content than the organization. Three types of decision process have been conceptualized, each of them related to a certain type of decision content. This argument gives attention to the perspectives of institution and power in a way which facilitates an elaboration of organizational analysis. The problems encountered in the reform of China's industrial enterprises are identified and discussed. General recommendations for policies of further reform are offered, based on the analysis of decision process and managerial behaviour.

The behaviour of polymer quenchants

The internationally accepted Wolfson Heat Treatment Centre Engineering Group test was used to evaluate the cooling characteristics of the most popular commercial polymer quenchants: polyalkylene glycols, polyvinylpyrrolidones and polyacrylates. Prototype solutions containing poly(ethyloxazoline) were also examined. Each class of polymer was capable of providing a wide range of cooling rates depending on the product formulation, concentration, temperature, agitation, ageing and contamination. Cooling rates for synthetic quenchants were generally intermediate between those of water and oil. Control techniques, drag-out losses and response to quenching in terms of hardness and residual stress for a plain carbon steel, were also considered. A laboratory scale method for providing a controllable level of forced convection was developed. Test reproducibility was improved by positioning the preheated Wolfson probe 25mm above the geometric centre of a 25mm diameter orifice through which the quenchant was pumped at a velocity of 0.5m/s. On examination, all polymer quenchants were found to operate by the same fundamental mechanism associated with their viscosity and ability to form an insulating polymer-rich-film. The nature of this film, which formed at the vapour/liquid interface during boiling, was dependent on the polymer's solubility characteristics. High molecular weight polymers and high concentration solutions produced thicker, more stable insulating films. Agitation produced thinner more uniform films. Higher molecular weight polymers were more susceptible to degradation, and increased cooling rates, with usage. Polyvinylpyrrolidones can be cross-linked resulting in erratic performance, whilst the anionic character of polyacrylates can lead to control problems. Volatile contaminants tend to decrease the rate of cooling and salts to increase it. Drag-out increases upon raising the molecular weight of the polymer and its solution viscosity. Kinematic viscosity measurements are more effective than refractometer readings for concentration control, although a quench test is the most satisfactory process control method.

The application of computerised modelling techniques in manufacturing system design

The absence of a definitive approach to the design of manufacturing systems signifies the importance of a control mechanism to ensure the timely application of relevant design techniques. To provide effective control, design development needs to be continually assessed in relation to the required system performance, which can only be achieved analytically through computer simulation. The technique providing the only method of accurately replicating the highly complex and dynamic interrelationships inherent within manufacturing facilities and realistically predicting system behaviour. Owing to the unique capabilities of computer simulation, its application should support and encourage a thorough investigation of all alternative designs. Allowing attention to focus specifically on critical design areas and enabling continuous assessment of system evolution. To achieve this system analysis needs to efficient, in terms of data requirements and both speed and accuracy of evaluation. To provide an effective control mechanism a hierarchical or multi-level modelling procedure has therefore been developed, specifying the appropriate degree of evaluation support necessary at each phase of design. An underlying assumption of the proposal being that evaluation is quick, easy and allows models to expand in line with design developments. However, current approaches to computer simulation are totally inappropriate to support the hierarchical evaluation. Implementation of computer simulation through traditional approaches is typically characterized by a requirement for very specialist expertise, a lengthy model development phase, and a correspondingly high expenditure. Resulting in very little and rather inappropriate use of the technique. Simulation, when used, is generally only applied to check or verify a final design proposal. Rarely is the full potential of computer simulation utilized to aid, support or complement the manufacturing system design procedure. To implement the proposed modelling procedure therefore the concept of a generic simulator was adopted, as such systems require no specialist expertise, instead facilitating quick and easy model creation, execution and modification, through simple data inputs. Previously generic simulators have tended to be too restricted, lacking the necessary flexibility to be generally applicable to manufacturing systems. Development of the ATOMS manufacturing simulator, however, has proven that such systems can be relevant to a wide range of applications, besides verifying the benefits of multi-level modelling.