Disaggregation of polygons of surficial geology and soil maps using spatial modelling and legacy data

Examples from the Murray-Darling basin in Australia are used to illustrate different methods of disaggregation of reconnaissance-scale maps. One approach for disaggregation revolves around the de-convolution of the soil-landscape paradigm elaborated during a soil survey. The descriptions of soil ma units and block diagrams in a soil survey report detail soil-landscape relationships or soil toposequences that can be used to disaggregate map units into component landscape elements. Toposequences can be visualised on a computer by combining soil maps with digital elevation data. Expert knowledge or statistics can be used to implement the disaggregation. Use of a restructuring element and k-means clustering are illustrated. Another approach to disaggregation uses training areas to develop rules to extrapolate detailed mapping into other, larger areas where detailed mapping is unavailable. A two-level decision tree example is presented. At one level, the decision tree method is used to capture mapping rules from the training area; at another level, it is used to define the domain over which those rules can be extrapolated. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Small area population disease burden

Small area health statistics has assumed increasing importance as the focus of population and public health moves to a more individualised approach of smaller area populations. Small populations and low event occurrence produce difficulties in interpretation and require appropriate statistical methods, including for age adjustment. There are also statistical questions related to multiple comparisons. Privacy and confidentiality issues include the possibility of revealing information on individuals or health care providers by fine cross-tabulations. Interpretation of small area population differences in health status requires consideration of migrant and Indigenous composition, socio-economic status and rural-urban geography before assessment of the effects of physical environmental exposure and services and interventions. Burden of disease studies produce a single measure for morbidity and mortality - disability adjusted life year (DALY) - which is the sum of the years of life lost (YLL) from premature mortality and the years lived with disability (YLD) for particular diseases (or all conditions). Calculation of YLD requires estimates of disease incidence (and complications) and duration, and weighting by severity. These procedures often mean problematic assumptions, as does future discounting and age weighting of both YLL and YLD. Evaluation of the Victorian small area population disease burden study presents important cross-disciplinary challenges as it relies heavily on synthetic approaches of demography and economics rather than on the empirical methods of epidemiology. Both empirical and synthetic methods are used to compute small area mortality and morbidity, disease burden, and then attribution to risk factors. Readers need to examine the methodology and assumptions carefully before accepting the results.

Detecting insomnia: comparison of four self-report measures of sleep in a young adult population

The sensitivity and specificity of four self-report measures of disordered sleep - the Sleep Impairment Index (SII), the Sleep Disorders Questionnaire (SDQ), the Dysfunctional Beliefs and Attitudes About Sleep Scale (DBAS) and the Sleep-Wake Activity Inventory (SWAI) - were compared in subjects with insomnia and normal sleep. Nineteen young adult subjects met DSM-IV criteria for primary insomnia and another 19 were normal control subjects. Discriminatory characteristics of each measure were assessed using receiver operator characteristic curve analyses. Discriminatory power was maximised for each measure to produce cut-scores applicable for identification of individuals with insomnia. The DBAS, SII and SDQ psychiatric DIMS subscale were found to correlate, and discriminated well between the two groups. The SWAI nocturnal sleep subscale was not found to be an accurate discriminator. The results suggest differences in the measures in their ability to detect insomnia, and offer guidelines as to the optimal use of test scores to identify young adults suspected of insomnia.

Modelling socially optimal land allocations for sugar cane growing in North Queensland: a linked mathematical programming and choice modelling study

A modelling framework is developed to determine the joint economic and environmental net benefits of alternative land allocation strategies. Estimates of community preferences for preservation of natural land, derived from a choice modelling study, are used as input to a model of agricultural production in an optimisation framework. The trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental protection are analysed using the sugar industry of the Herbert River district of north Queensland as an example. Spatially-differentiated resource attributes and the opportunity costs of natural land determine the optimal tradeoffs between production and conservation for a range of sugar prices.

The relationship between cannabis use and other substance use in the general population

This study examined if (1) there is an association in the general population between cannabis use, DSM-IV abuse and dependence, and other substance use and DSM-IV substance abuse/dependence; (2) if so, is it explained by demographic characteristics or levels of neuroticism? It used data from the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Well-Being (NSMHWB), a stratified, multistage probability sample of 10641 adults, representative of the general population. DSM-IV diagnoses of substance abuse and dependence were derived using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). There was a strong bivariate association between involvement with cannabis use in the past 12 months and other substance use, abuse and dependence. In particular, cannabis abuse and dependence were highly associated with increased risks of other substance dependence. These associations remained after including other variables in multiple regression. Cannabis use without disorder was strongly related to other drug use, an association that was not explained by other variables considered here. The high likelihood of other substance use and substance use disorders needs to be considered among persons seeking treatment for cannabis use problems. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling of post-irradiation events in polymer gel dosimeters

The nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spin-spin relaxation time (T-2) is related to the radiation-dependent concentration of polymer formed in polymer gel dosimeters manufactured from monomers in an aqueous gelatin matrix. Changes in T-2 with time post-irradiation have been reported in the literature but their nature is not fully understood. We investigated those changes with time after irradiation using FT-Raman spectroscopy and the precise determination of T-2 at high magnetic field in a polymer gel dosimeter, A model of fast exchange of magnetization taking into account ongoing gelation and strengthening of the gelatin matrix as well as the polymerization of the monomers with time is presented. Published data on the changes of T-2 in gelatin gels as a function of post-manufacture time are used and fitted closely by the model presented. The same set of parameters characterizing the variations of T-2 in gelatin gels and the increasing concentration of polymer determined from Fr-Raman spectroscopy are used successfully in the modelling of irradiated polymer gel dosimeters. Minimal variations in T-2 in an irradiated PAG dosimeter are observed after 13 h.

Finite element modelling of rock alteration and metamorphic process in hydrothermal systems

We use the finite element method to simulate the rock alteration and metamorphic process in hydrothermal systems. In particular, we consider the fluid-rock interaction problems in pore-fluid saturated porous rocks. Since the fluid rock interaction takes place at the contact interface between the pore-fluid and solid minerals, it is governed by the chemical reaction which usually takes place very slowly at this contact interface, from the geochemical point of view. Due to the relative slowness of the rate of the chemical reaction to the velocity of the pore-fluid flow in the hydrothermal system to be considered, there exists a retardation zone, in which the conventional static theory in geochemistry does not hold true. Since this issue is often overlooked by some purely numerical modellers, it is emphasized in this paper. The related results from a typical rock alteration and metamorphic problem in a hydrothermal system have shown not only the detailed rock alteration and metamorphic process, but also the size of the retardation zone in the hydrothermal system. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cervical screening: population-based comparisons between self-reported survey and registry-derived Pap test rates

Objective: To compare self-reported cervical screening rates, as recorded in the 1998 NSW Health Survey, with registry-based cervical screening rates for NSW for the same period; and to examine factors associated with over-estimates of cervical screening rates by self-report. Methods: Self-reported cervical screening data was extracted from the 1998 NSW Health Survey, biennial screening rates estimated and compared with biennial cervical screening rates for 1997-98, as recorded on the NSW Pap Test Register (PTR). Rates and differences were related to socio-demographic characteristics of the 17 Area Health Services of NSW. Results: According to the 1998 NSW Health Survey, 74% of women reported having a Pap test during the previous two years. The equivalent rate recorded on the NSW PTR for 1997-98 was 62% (p

Finite element modelling of heat transfer through permeable cracks in hydrothermal systems with upward throughflow

We use the finite element method to model the heat transfer phenomenon through permeable cracks in hydrothermal systems with upward throughflow. Since the finite element method is an approximate numerical method, the method must be validated before it is used to soh,e any new, kind of problem. However, the analytical solution, which can be used to validate the finite element method and other numerical methods, is rather limited in the literature, especially, for the problem considered here. Keeping this in mind, we have derived analytical solutions for the temperature distribution along the vertical axis of a crack in a fluid-saturated porous layer. After the finite element method is validated by comparing the numerical solution with the analytical solution for the same benchmark problem, it is used to investigate the pore-fluid flow and heat transfer in layered hydrothermal systems with vertical permeable cracks. The related analytical and numerical results have demonstrated that vertical cracks are effective and efficient members to transfer heat energy from the bottom section to the top section in hydrothermal systems with upward throughflow.

Progress in integrated assessment and modelling

Environmental processes have been modelled for decades. However. the need for integrated assessment and modeling (IAM) has,town as the extent and severity of environmental problems in the 21st Century worsens. The scale of IAM is not restricted to the global level as in climate change models, but includes local and regional models of environmental problems. This paper discusses various definitions of IAM and identifies five different types of integration that Lire needed for the effective solution of environmental problems. The future is then depicted in the form of two brief scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. The current state of IAM is then briefly reviewed. The issues of complexity and validation in IAM are recognised as more complex than in traditional disciplinary approaches. Communication is identified as a central issue both internally among team members and externally with decision-makers. stakeholders and other scientists. Finally it is concluded that the process of integrated assessment and modelling is considered as important as the product for any particular project. By learning to work together and recognise the contribution of all team members and participants, it is believed that we will have a strong scientific and social basis to address the environmental problems of the 21st Century. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

BeachWin: modelling groundwater effects on swash sediment transport and beach profile changes

Field and laboratory observations have shown that a relatively low beach groundwater table enhances beach accretion. These observations have led to the beach dewatering technique (artificially lowering the beach water table) for combating beach erosion. Here we present a process-based numerical model that simulates the interacting wave motion on the beach. coastal groundwater flow, swash sediment transport and beach profile changes. Results of model simulations demonstrate that the model replicates accretionary effects of a low beach water table on beach profile changes and has the potential to become a tool for assessing the effectiveness of beach dewatering systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finite element modelling of reactive fluids mixing and mineralization in pore-fluid saturated hydrothermal/sedimentary basins

We present the finite element simulations of reactive mineral carrying fluids mixing and mineralization in pore-fluid saturated hydrothermal/sedimentary basins. In particular we explore the mixing of reactive sulfide and sulfate fluids and the relevant patterns of mineralization for Load, zinc and iron minerals in the regime of temperature-gradient-driven convective flow. Since the mineralization and ore body formation may last quite a long period of time in a hydrothermal basin, it is commonly assumed that, in the geochemistry, the solutions of minerals are in an equilibrium state or near an equilibrium state. Therefore, the mineralization rate of a particular kind of mineral can be expressed as the product of the pore-fluid velocity and the equilibrium concentration of this particular kind of mineral Using the present mineralization rate of a mineral, the potential of the modern mineralization theory is illustrated by means of finite element studies related to reactive mineral-carrying fluids mixing problems in materially homogeneous and inhomogeneous porous rock basins.

Spatial data mining for enhanced soil map modelling

The principle of using induction rules based on spatial environmental data to model a soil map has previously been demonstrated Whilst the general pattern of classes of large spatial extent and those with close association with geology were delineated small classes and the detailed spatial pattern of the map were less well rendered Here we examine several strategies to improve the quality of the soil map models generated by rule induction Terrain attributes that are better suited to landscape description at a resolution of 250 m are introduced as predictors of soil type A map sampling strategy is developed Classification error is reduced by using boosting rather than cross validation to improve the model Further the benefit of incorporating the local spatial context for each environmental variable into the rule induction is examined The best model was achieved by sampling in proportion to the spatial extent of the mapped classes boosting the decision trees and using spatial contextual information extracted from the environmental variables.

Epidemiological modelling (including economic modelling) and its role in preventive drug therapy

In contrast to curative therapies, preventive therapies are administered to largely healthy individuals over long periods. The risk-benefit and cost-benefit ratios are more likely to be unfavourable, making treatment decisions difficult. Drug trials provide insufficient information for treatment decisions, as they are conducted on highly selected populations over short durations, estimate only relative benefits of treatment and offer little information on risks and costs. Epidemiological modelling is a method of combining evidence from observational epidemiology and clinical trials to assist in clinical and health policy decision-making. It can estimate absolute benefits, risks and costs of long-term preventive strategies, and thus allow their precise targeting to individuals for whom they are safest and most cost-effective. Epidemiological modelling also allows explicit information about risks and benefits of therapy to be presented to patients, facilitating informed decision-making.

Mortality and recurrent cardiac events after coronary artery bypass graft: long term outcomes in a population study

Objective: To determine 30 day mortality, long term survival, and recurrent cardiac events after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) in a population. Design: Follow up study of patients prospectively entered on to a cardiothoracic surgical database. Record linkages were used to obtain data on readmissions and deaths. Patients: 8910 patients undergoing isolated first CABG between 1980 and 1993 in Western Australia. Main outcome measures: 30 day and long term survival, readmission for cardiac event (acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty or reoperative CABG). Results: There were 3072 deaths to mid 1999. 30 day and long term survival were significantly better in patients treated in the first five years than during the following decade. The age of the patients, proportion of female patients, and number of grafts increased over time. An urgent procedure (odds ratio 3.3), older age (9% per year) and female sex (odds ratio 1.5) were associated with increased risk for 30 day mortality, while age (7% per year) and a recent myocardial infarction (odds ratio 1.16) influenced long term survival. Internal mammary artery grafts were followed by better short and long term survival, though there was an obvious selection bias in favour of younger male patients. Conclusions: This study shows worsening crude mortality at 30 days after CABG from the mid 1980s, associated with the inclusion of higher risk patients. Older age, an acute myocardial infarction in the year before surgery, and the use of sephenous vein grafts only were associated with poorer long term survival and greater risk of a recurrent cardiac event. Female sex predicted recurrent events but not long term survival.