Estimated Financial Impact of Trypanosoma vivax on the Brazilian Pantanal and Bolivian Lowlands

The financial impact of the first outbreak of Trypanosoma vivax in the Brazilian Pantanal wetland is estimated. Results are extended to include outbreaks in the Bolivian lowlands providing a notion of the potential influence of the disease and an analytical basis. More than 11 million head of cattle, valued at more than US$3 billion are found in the Brazilian Pantanal and Bolivian lowlands. The total estimated cost of the 1995 outbreak of T. vivax is the sum of the present values of mortality, abortion, and productivity losses and treatment costs, or about 4% of total brood cow value on affected ranches. Had the outbreak gone untreated, the estimated losses would have exceeded 17% of total brood cow value.

Paper money and national distress: William Huskisson and the early theories of credit, speculation and crises

This paper examines the explanation of commercial crises offered by William Huskisson in 1810 in the wake of the debate on the Bullion Report. Huskisson argued that the suspension of convertibility made it possible to extend issues of paper currency beyond its proper limits. Such an expansion, being in the interest of all parties concerned, would actually take place and stimulate excessive speculations, which would eventually prove unsustainable and bring generalized ruin and distress. Although some elements of this explanations were not new (having been anticipated by writers sucha as James Currie in 1793, William Roscoe in 1793, William Anderson in 1797 and an anonymous in 1796), Huskisson's explanation is more systematic and better organized, and his emphasis on the endogenous character of the crisis and on the instability of the dynamics of trade and credit makes it an interesting foreshadower of the theories of crises that were advanced half a century later.

Vom Finanz- zum Wissenschaftsbetrug : Methode, den Irrungen in der medizinischen Literatur beizukommen [From financial to scientific fraud : Methods to detect discrepancies in the medical literature].

Fraud is as old as Mankind. There are an enormous number of historical documents which show the interaction between truth and untruth; therefore it is not really surprising that the prevalence of publication discrepancies is increasing. More surprising is that new cases especially in the medical field generate such a huge astonishment. In financial mathematics a statistical tool for detection of fraud is known which uses the knowledge of Newcomb and Benford regarding the distribution of natural numbers. This distribution is not equal and lower numbers are more likely to be detected compared to higher ones. In this investigation all numbers contained in the blinded abstracts of the 2009 annual meeting of the Swiss Society of Anesthesia and Resuscitation (SGAR) were recorded and analyzed regarding the distribution. A manipulated abstract was also included in the investigation. The χ(2)-test was used to determine statistical differences between expected and observed counts of numbers. There was also a faked abstract integrated in the investigation. A p<0.05 was considered significant. The distribution of the 1,800 numbers in the 77 submitted abstracts followed Benford's law. The manipulated abstract was detected by statistical means (difference in expected versus observed p<0.05). Statistics cannot prove whether the content is true or not but can give some serious hints to look into the details in such conspicuous material. These are the first results of a test for the distribution of numbers presented in medical research.

Financial impact of introducing the Swiss-DRG reimbursement system on potentially avoidable readmissions at a university hospital.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY: Thirty-day readmissions can be classified as potentially avoidable (PARs) or not avoidable (NARs) by following a specific algorithm (SQLape®). We wanted to assess the financial impact of the Swiss-DRG system, which regroups some readmissions occurring within 18 days after discharge within the initial hospital stay, on PARs at our hospital. METHODS: First, PARs were identified from all hospitalisations recorded in 2011 at our university hospital. Second, 2012 Swiss-DRG readmission rules were applied, regrouped readmissions (RR) were identified, and their financial impact computed. Third, RRs were classified as potentially avoidable (PARRs), not avoidable (NARRs), and others causes (OCRRs). Characteristics of PARR patients and stays were retrieved, and the financial impact of PARRS was computed. RESULTS: A total of 36,777 hospitalisations were recorded in 2011, of which 3,140 were considered as readmissions (8.5%): 1,470 PARs (46.8%) and 1,733 NARs (53.2%). The 2012 Swiss-DRG rules would have resulted in 910 RRs (2.5% of hospitalisations, 29% of readmissions): 395 PARRs (43% of RR), 181 NARRs (20%), and 334 OCRRs (37%). Loss in reimbursement would have amounted to CHF 3.157 million (0.6% of total reimbursement). As many as 95% of the 395 PARR patients lived at home. In total, 28% of PARRs occurred within 3 days after discharge, and 58% lasted less than 5 days; 79% of the patients were discharged home again. Loss in reimbursement would amount to CHF 1.771 million. CONCLUSION: PARs represent a sizeable number of 30-day readmissions, as do PARRs of 18-day RRs in the 2012 Swiss DRG system. They should be the focus of attention, as the PARRs represent an avoidable loss in reimbursement.

Framework for Corporate and Financial Governance for Regulatory Bodies under the aegis of the Department of Health and Children

The document should be read as supplementary to existing requirements as set out both in statute â?" particularly legislation specific to your organisation, the Health Acts 1947-2004, Ombudsman Act, 1980, Data Protection Acts 1988 & 2003, Freedom of Information Acts 1997-2003, Ethics in Public Office Acts 1995 & 2001, Ombudsman for Children Act, 2002 and the Comptroller and Auditor General (Amendment) Act, 1993 – and in Government approved guidelines, including the Code of Practice for the Governance of State Bodies (2001), Public Financial Procedures, The Role and Responsibilities of Accounting Officers (2003) and Risk Management Guidance for Government Departments and Offices (2004). Read the report (PDF, 1.4mb)  

Framework for Corporate and Financial Governance for Agencies funded by the Department of Health and Children

Corporate governance is the system by which organisations direct and control their functions and relate to their stakeholders in order to manage their business, achieve their mission and objectives and meet the necessary standards of accountability, integrity and propriety. It is a key element in improving efficiency and accountability as well as enhancing openness and transparency. A significant element of the Governmentâ?Ts programme for health service reform is the strengthening of governance and accountability arrangements across the health system. Read the Report (PDF, 1mb)

Health system responses to financial pressures in Ireland: policy options in an international context

Given the scale of the challenge facing the health system for 2013 and subsequent years, the Department of Health invited the European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies to prepare a report on the implications for the Irish health system of our current financial pressures. The Observatory is an international partnership hosted by the World Health Organisation (WHO). The partnership includes three other international agencies (European Commission, the European Investment Bank, World Bank), several national and decentralized governments, including Ireland, and academic institutions. As an independent and neutral knowledge broker the Observatory's core mission is to inform policy-making and decision-making processes by providing tailored, timely and reliable evidence on health policy and health systems. Click here to download PDF 2.1mb

African migrants in Asian and European football: hopes and realities

This paper analyses the integration of Africa in the global labour market of football through the study of players' migrations to Asia and Europe. The presence of African footballers in the latter continent is analysed via a statistical survey carried out in September and October 2008 on a sample of 456 top division clubs in 30 European countries. The article emphasizes that the aspirations placed on football by male African youth, as a means of upward social mobility, are often too high when compared to the harsh realities of a transfer market based on commercial logics, which each year push many footballers away from the professional game.

Three essays in international finance

Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.

Can Families Resist Managerial and Financial Revolutions? Swiss Family Firms in the Twentieth Century

The aim of this contribution is to highlight the long-term evolution of family capitalism in Switzerland during the twentieth century. We focus on 22 large companies of the machine, electrotechnical and metallurgy (MEM) sector whose boards of directors and general managers have been identified in five benchmark years across the twentieth century, which allows us to distinguish between family-owned and family-controlled firms. Our results show that family firms prevailed until the 1980s and thus contradict the dominance of 'managerial capitalism'. Although we observe a decline of family capitalism during the last decade of the century, the significant remaining presence of family firms in 2000 allows us to relativise the advent of investor capitalism.

Els canvis en la banca japonesa després de la crisi de 1990

Aquesta recerca vol endinsar-se en les particularitats del sector bancari japonès. Per particularitats entenem aquelles característiques que defineixen una societat, i que la caracteritza com a singular i única, diferent a les altres. Per tal d'enfocar-ne la recerca, prendrem com a punt de partida i referència, la situació de l'economia japonesa dels anys noranta, després de l'esclat de la bombolla financera l'any 1990. Tanmateix, prèviament farem un breu incís amb l'objectiu de contextualitzar la situació financera abans de l'esclat de la bombolla, per entendre així quines foren les primeres conseqüències que provocà la crisi financera de 1990. Les respostes i el posicionament que emprendrà el Govern també ens ajudaran a comprendre les característiques del sistema bancari japonès. A través de l'estudi d'aquest sistema financer centrat en els bancs, identificarem conceptes com: la banca de relació, la qual ens marcarà una de les característiques principals d'aquest sistema. A través de la descripció de figures com: bancs principals i keiretsu , també aconseguirem identificar nous trets. A través de la observació crítica de la relació entre entitats bancàries i Govern, aconseguirem anar detallant les pràctiques bancàries que han seguit, amb l'objectiu de per poder descriure les polítiques de risc aplicades per les entitats bancàries. Un cop caracteritzats els trets principals del sistema bancari japonès, arribarà l'hora de mostrar els canvis que s'han produït en el sistema bancari japonès. L'estudi de la reestructuració del sistema, ens mostrarà el nou mapa bancari japonès així com la nova regulació a la qual és sotmès. Finalment serem capaços d'identificar aquells trets que han generat els principals problemes del sector bancari.

RFLP clusters of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains from the Indian Ocean Region: local and South Asian characteristics

This is the first study describing the genetic polymorphism of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains in the Indian Ocean Region. Using IS6110 RFLP analysis, 475 M. tuberculosis isolates from Madagascar, Comoros, Mauritius, Mozambique and La Reunion were compared. Of the 332 IS6110 profiles found, 43 were shared by clusters containing 2-65 strains. Six clusters were common to at least two countries. Of 52 families of strains with similar IS6110 profiles, 10 were common to at least two countries. Interestingly, another characteristic was the frequency (16.8%) of IS6110 single-copy strains. These strains could be distinguished using the DR marker. This preliminary evaluation suggests genetic similarity between the strains of the Indian Ocean Region. However, additional markers would be useful for epidemiological studies and to assess the ancient transmission of strains between countries of this region.