An experimental approach to project risk identification and prioritization

One of the aims of a broad ethnographic study into how the apportionment of risk influences pricing levels of contactors was to ascertain the significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana, and their impact on prices. To do this, in the context of contractors, the difference between expected and realized return on a project is the key dependent variable examined using documentary analyses and semi-structured interviews. Most work in this has focused on identifying and prioritising risks using relative importance indices generated from the analysis of questionnaire survey responses. However, this approach may be argued to constitute perceptions rather than direct measures of the project risk. Here, instead, project risk is investigated by examining two measures of the same quantity; one ‘before’ and one ‘after’ construction of a project has taken place. Risks events are identified by ascertaining the independent variables causing deviations between expected and actual rates of return. Risk impact is then measured by ascertaining additions or reductions to expected costs due to the occurrence of risk events. So far, data from eight substantially complete building projects indicates that consultants’ inefficiency, payment delays, subcontractor-related problems and changes in macroeconomic factors are significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana.

Exporting construction professional services in a global service economy

Globalisation has prompted increasing numbers of construction profes-sional services (CPS) firms to internationalise and export their services. The driver has been twofold; firstly to increase turnover/profits and sec-ondly, to minimise the risk of a reliance on working in a single domestic market which has a fluctuating demand. Secondly, where firms have out-grown their domestic market, and in order to expand, they must export overseas. There has been little research into the way CPS firms operate overseas, yet construction represents approximately 10% of global GDP; this means that understanding CPS firms is important. This paper investigates how CPS firms internationalise and the drivers that impact their decisions and operations overseas. A survey was undertaken and interviews conducted that showed CPS firms are project driven, in-vesting heavily in the process of seeking work/bidding for projects, and are very focused on delivering projects with minimum risk. Increasing foreign ownership, changing procurement approaches and more consolidation of CPS firms in the global marketplace present a changing business land-scape. The research develops a framework of tangible and intangible factors, such as competencies, business organisation culture, leadership and reputation in order to better understand how CPS firms export their ser-vices. Whilst all CPS firms share the same framework of factors, the re-sulting synergies are different not only for each firm but also for each pro-ject. The knowledge-intensive and project-based nature of CPS firms presents a challenge in understanding the way they operate in the global service economy.

The voice of the consumer speaks forcefully in brand identity: user-generated content forces smart marketers to listen

User-generated content (UGC) is attracting a great deal of interest - some of it effective, some misguided. This article reviews the marketing-related factors that gave rise to UGC, tracing the relevant development of market orientation, social interaction, word of mouth, brand relationships, consumer creativity, co-creation, and customization, largely through the pages of the Journal of Advertising Research over the last 40 (or so) of its 50 years. The authors then discuss the characteristic features of UGC and how they differ from (and are similar to) these concepts. The insights thus gained will help practitioners and researchers understand what UGC is (and is not) and how it should (and should not) be used.

The role of SENCOs as leaders

2014 marks an important milestone for the SENCO (Special Educational Needs Coordinator) role. It is the 20 year anniversary of the requirement for schools to have a named person as lead for Special Educational Needs (SEN). This article explores the vision of the role as seen in government guidance and documents and compares this with the views of those in post who are undertaking a required training programme to become a qualified SENCO. An optional questionnaire was distributed to all SENCOs at Induction (Time 1) and repeated upon completion of the course (Time 2) and 10 semi structured follow up interviews were conducted with volunteers to explore emerging themes. Differences were seen in the sample between those that were part of the senior leadership team in terms of their views on their ability to lead and direct practice, resource management and the strategic goals of the role.

Keeping the dream of rigorous hypothesis testing alive

This article reviews recent work on hypothesis testing in the American Journal of AGricultural Economics and its predecessor journal, the Journal of Farm Economics

Some implications of a sample of practical Turing tests

A series of imitation games involving 3-participant (simultaneous comparison of two hidden entities) and 2-participant (direct interrogation of a hidden entity) were conducted at Bletchley Park on the 100th anniversary of Alan Turing’s birth: 23 June 2012. From the ongoing analysis of over 150 games involving (expert and non-expert, males and females, adults and child) judges, machines and hidden humans (foils for the machines), we present six particular conversations that took place between human judges and a hidden entity that produced unexpected results. From this sample we focus on features of Turing’s machine intelligence test that the mathematician/code breaker did not consider in his examination for machine thinking: the subjective nature of attributing intelligence to another mind.

On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar

In 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar was the first to demonstrate that the Earth’s land surface was warming. Callendar also suggested that the production of carbon dioxide by the combustion of fossil fuels was responsible for much of this modern change in climate. This short note marks the 75th anniversary of Callendar’s landmark study and demonstrates that his global land temperature estimates agree remarkably well with more recent analyses.

Mark Casson: the Entrepreneur at 30 -continued relevance?

Mark Casson's The Entrepreneur: An Economic Theory (1982) has become one of the most influential books in the field of entrepreneurship. For the first time, this article outlines its origins and summarizes its main themes. The article goes on to show how Casson's subsequent research has closely followed the research agenda he set for himself in The Entrepreneur and illustrates the continuing challenge his work presents to entrepreneurship scholars. The article is based on an interview the authors conducted with Mark Casson on the thirtieth anniversary of the book's publication. Copyright © 2014 Strategic Management Society.

Effective interventions: 25 years outside the mainstream

25 years ago when the Durham conferences were in full swing, I presented results of investigations on language and behaviour in autism. I tentatively proposed that early language in autism might tell us about the cognitive skills of people with ASD and the behaviour might lead to greater understanding of which brain systems might be affected. In this presentation, I will update these topics and present a summary of other work I have been involved with in attempting to improve the lives of people with autism and their families. Data on three people with autism at the early stages of speech development showed an unusual pattern of learning colour and number names early. One possibility was that this skill represented a sign of weak central coherence – they only attended to one dimension. Colleagues of mine were equally puzzled so we tried to find out if my results could be replicated – they were not (see Schafer, Williams & Smith, 2014). Instead we found this pattern was also seen in Down Syndrome, but that early vocabulary in autism was associated with low Colorado Meaningfulness at least in comprehension. The Colorado Meaningfulness of a word is a measure of how many words can be associated with it and often involve extensive use of context. Our data suggest that the number of contexts in which a particular word can appear has a role in determining vocabulary in ASD which is consistent with the weak central coherence theory of autism. In the course of this work I also came across a group of young people with autism who appeared to have a written vocabulary but not a spoken one. It seems possible that print might be a medium of communication when speech is not. Repetitive behaviour in autism remains a mystery. We can use functional analysis to determine why the behaviour occurs, but a worryingly large percentage of behaviours are described as being internally driven or sensory reinforced. What does that mean in terms of brain activity – could it be system analogous to epilepsy, where brain activity becomes inappropriately synchronised? At the moment I cannot claim to have solved this problem, but if sensation is a driver then sensory interventions should make a difference. Data from a recent study will be presented to suggest that for some individuals this is the case. Social behaviour remains the key however, and it remains to be seen whether it is possible for social behaviour to be aided. One route that has potential is direct teaching of skills through drama and working with others who do not have social difficulties of the same type. The picture is complicated by changes in social skills with age and experience, but the failure of people with ASD to interact when in settings of social contact is little researched.