Predicting feed quality - chemical analysis and in vitro evaluation

As the ideal method of assessing the nutritive value of a feedstuff, namely offering it to the appropriate class of animal and recording the production response obtained, is neither practical nor cost effective a range of feed evaluation techniques have been developed. Each of these balances some degree of compromise with the practical situation against data generation. However, due to the impact of animal-feed interactions over and above that of feed composition, the target animal remains the ultimate arbitrator of nutritional value. In this review current in vitro feed evaluation techniques are examined according to the degree of animal-feed interaction. Chemical analysis provides absolute values and therefore differs from the majority of in vitro methods that simply rank feeds. However, with no host animal involvement, estimates of nutritional value are inferred by statistical association. In addition given the costs involved, the practical value of many analyses conducted should be reviewed. The in sacco technique has made a substantial contribution to both understanding rumen microbial degradative processes and the rapid evaluation of feeds, especially in developing countries. However, the numerous shortfalls of the technique, common to many in vitro methods, the desire to eliminate the use of surgically modified animals for routine feed evaluation, paralleled with improvements in in vitro techniques, will see this technique increasingly replaced. The majority of in vitro systems use substrate disappearance to assess degradation, however, this provides no information regarding the quantity of derived end-products available to the host animal. As measurement of volatile fatty acids or microbial biomass production greatly increases analytical costs, fermentation gas release, a simple and non-destructive measurement, has been used as an alternative. However, as gas release alone is of little use, gas-based systems, where both degradation and fermentation gas release are measured simultaneously, are attracting considerable interest. Alternative microbial inocula are being considered, as is the potential of using multi-enzyme systems to examine degradation dynamics. It is concluded that while chemical analysis will continue to form an indispensable part of feed evaluation, enhanced use will be made of increasingly complex in vitro systems. It is vital, however, the function and limitations of each methodology are fully understood and that the temptation to over-interpret the data is avoided so as to draw the appropriate conclusions. With careful selection and correct application in vitro systems offer powerful research tools with which to evaluate feedstuffs. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The use of a multiple criteria decision analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of landscape and habitat enhancement mechanisms: an example from the South Downs

A range of funding schemes and policy instruments exist to effect enhancement of the landscapes and habitats of the UK. While a number of assessments of these mechanisms have been conducted, little research has been undertaken to compare both quantitatively and qualitatively their relative effectiveness across a range of criteria. It is argued that few tools are available for such a multi-faceted evaluation of effectiveness. A form of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is justified and utilized as a framework in which to evaluate the effectiveness of nine mechanisms in relation to the protection of existing areas of chalk grassland and the creation of new areas in the South Downs of England. These include established schemes, such as the Countryside Stewardship and Environmentally Sensitive Area Schemes, along with other less common mechanisms, for example, land purchase and tender schemes. The steps involved in applying an MCDA to evaluate such mechanisms are identified and the process is described. Quantitative results from the comparison of the effectiveness of different mechanisms are presented, although the broader aim of the paper is that of demonstrating the performance of MCDA as a tool for measuring the effectiveness of mechanisms aimed at landscape and habitat enhancement.

Stock assessment for fishery management - A framework guide to the stock assessment tools of the Fisheries Management Science Programme (FMSP)

This document provides guidelines for fish stock assessment and fishery management using the software tools and other outputs developed by the United Kingdom's Department for International Development's Fisheries Management Science Programme (FMSP) from 1992 to 2004. It explains some key elements of the precautionary approach to fisheries management and outlines a range of alternative stock assessment approaches that can provide the information needed for such precautionary management. Four FMSP software tools, LFDA (Length Frequency Data Analysis), CEDA (Catch Effort Data Analysis), YIELD and ParFish (Participatory Fisheries Stock Assessment), are described with which intermediary parameters, performance indicators and reference points may be estimated. The document also contains examples of the assessment and management of multispecies fisheries, the use of Bayesian methodologies, the use of empirical modelling approaches for estimating yields and in analysing fishery systems, and the assessment and management of inland fisheries. It also provides a comparison of length- and age-based stock assessment methods. A CD-ROM with the FMSP software packages CEDA, LFDA, YIELD and ParFish is included.

An entropy-based financial decision support system (e-FDSS) for project analysis in construction SMEs

Uncertainty contributes a major part in the accuracy of a decision-making process while its inconsistency is always difficult to be solved by existing decision-making tools. Entropy has been proved to be useful to evaluate the inconsistency of uncertainty among different respondents. The study demonstrates an entropy-based financial decision support system called e-FDSS. This integrated system provides decision support to evaluate attributes (funding options and multiple risks) available in projects. Fuzzy logic theory is included in the system to deal with the qualitative aspect of these options and risks. An adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) is also employed to solve the decision algorithm in the system in order to provide optimal and consistent rates to these attributes. Seven simplified and parallel projects from a Hong Kong construction small and medium enterprise (SME) were assessed to evaluate the system. The result shows that the system calculates risk adjusted discount rates (RADR) of projects in an objective way. These rates discount project cash flow impartially. Inconsistency of uncertainty is also successfully evaluated by the use of the entropy method. Finally, the system identifies the favourable funding options that are managed by a scheme called SME Loan Guarantee Scheme (SGS). Based on these results, resource allocation could then be optimized and the best time to start a new project could also be identified throughout the overall project life cycle.

The application of the Hilbert spectrum to the analysis of electromyographic signals

This paper investigates the application of the Hilbert spectrum (HS), which is a recent tool for the analysis of nonlinear and nonstationary time-series, to the study of electromyographic (EMG) signals. The HS allows for the visualization of the energy of signals through a joint time-frequency representation. In this work we illustrate the use of the HS in two distinct applications. The first is for feature extraction from EMG signals. Our results showed that the instantaneous mean frequency (IMNF) estimated from the HS is a relevant feature to clinical practice. We found that the median of the IMNF reduces when the force level of the muscle contraction increases. In the second application we investigated the use of the HS for detection of motor unit action potentials (MUAPs). The detection of MUAPs is a basic step in EMG decomposition tools, which provide relevant information about the neuromuscular system through the morphology and firing time of MUAPs. We compared, visually, how MUAP activity is perceived on the HS with visualizations provided by some traditional (e.g. scalogram, spectrogram, Wigner-Ville) time-frequency distributions. Furthermore, an alternative visualization to the HS, for detection of MUAPs, is proposed and compared to a similar approach based on the continuous wavelet transform (CWT). Our results showed that both the proposed technique and the CWT allowed for a clear visualization of MUAP activity on the time-frequency distributions, whereas results obtained with the HS were the most difficult to interpret as they were extremely affected by spurious energy activity. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Slogger: a profiling and analysis system based on semantic web technologies

Increasingly, distributed systems are being used to host all manner of applications. While these platforms provide a relatively cheap and effective means of executing applications, so far there has been little work in developing tools and utilities that can help application developers understand problems with the supporting software, or the executing applications. To fully understand why an application executing on a distributed system is not behaving as would be expected it is important that not only the application, but also the underlying middleware, and the operating system are analysed too, otherwise issues could be missed and certainly overall performance profiling and fault diagnoses would be harder to understand. We believe that one approach to profiling and the analysis of distributed systems and the associated applications is via the plethora of log files generated at runtime. In this paper we report on a system (Slogger), that utilises various emerging Semantic Web technologies to gather the heterogeneous log files generated by the various layers in a distributed system and unify them in common data store. Once unified, the log data can be queried and visualised in order to highlight potential problems or issues that may be occurring in the supporting software or the application itself.

Thermodynamic analysis of snowball Earth hysteresis experiment: Efficiency, entropy production and irreversibility

We present an extensive thermodynamic analysis of a hysteresis experiment performed on a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. We slowly vary the solar constant by 20% around the present value and detect that for a large range of values of the solar constant the realization of snowball or of regular climate conditions depends on the history of the system. Using recent results on the global climate thermodynamics, we show that the two regimes feature radically different properties. The efficiency of the climate machine monotonically increases with decreasing solar constant in present climate conditions, whereas the opposite takes place in snowball conditions. Instead, entropy production is monotonically increasing with the solar constant in both branches of climate conditions, and its value is about four times larger in the warm branch than in the corresponding cold state. Finally, the degree of irreversibility of the system, measured as the fraction of excess entropy production due to irreversible heat transport processes, is much higher in the warm climate conditions, with an explosive growth in the upper range of the considered values of solar constants. Whereas in the cold climate regime a dominating role is played by changes in the meridional albedo contrast, in the warm climate regime changes in the intensity of latent heat fluxes are crucial for determining the observed properties. This substantiates the importance of addressing correctly the variations of the hydrological cycle in a changing climate. An interpretation of the climate transitions at the tipping points based upon macro-scale thermodynamic properties is also proposed. Our results support the adoption of a new generation of diagnostic tools based on the second law of thermodynamics for auditing climate models and outline a set of parametrizations to be used in conceptual and intermediate-complexity models or for the reconstruction of the past climate conditions. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

A comparison of space weather analysis techniques used to predict the arrival of the Earth-directed CME and its shockwave launched on 8 April 2010

The Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) of 8 April 2010 provided an opportunity for space weather predictions from both established and developmental techniques to be made from near–real time data received from the SOHO and STEREO spacecraft; the STEREO spacecraft provide a unique view of Earth-directed events from outside the Sun-Earth line. Although the near–real time data transmitted by the STEREO Space Weather Beacon are significantly poorer in quality than the subsequently downlinked science data, the use of these data has the advantage that near–real time analysis is possible, allowing actual forecasts to be made. The fact that such forecasts cannot be biased by any prior knowledge of the actual arrival time at Earth provides an opportunity for an unbiased comparison between several established and developmental forecasting techniques. We conclude that for forecasts based on the STEREO coronagraph data, it is important to take account of the subsequent acceleration/deceleration of each CME through interaction with the solar wind, while predictions based on measurements of CMEs made by the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers would benefit from higher temporal and spatial resolution. Space weather forecasting tools must work with near–real time data; such data, when provided by science missions, is usually highly compressed and/or reduced in temporal/spatial resolution and may also have significant gaps in coverage, making such forecasts more challenging.

Algorithmic statistical analysis of electrophysiological data for the investigation of structure-activity relationship in single neurons

We are developing computational tools supporting the detailed analysis of the dependence of neural electrophysiological response on dendritic morphology. We approach this problem by combining simulations of faithful models of neurons (experimental real life morphological data with known models of channel kinetics) with algorithmic extraction of morphological and physiological parameters and statistical analysis. In this paper, we present the novel method for an automatic recognition of spike trains in voltage traces, which eliminates the need for human intervention. This enables classification of waveforms with consistent criteria across all the analyzed traces and so it amounts to reduction of the noise in the data. This method allows for an automatic extraction of relevant physiological parameters necessary for further statistical analysis. In order to illustrate the usefulness of this procedure to analyze voltage traces, we characterized the influence of the somatic current injection level on several electrophysiological parameters in a set of modeled neurons. This application suggests that such an algorithmic processing of physiological data extracts parameters in a suitable form for further investigation of structure-activity relationship in single neurons.

Computer generation and quantitative morphometric analysis of virtual neurons

An important goal in computational neuroanatomy is the complete and accurate simulation of neuronal morphology. We are developing computational tools to model three-dimensional dendritic structures based on sets of stochastic rules. This paper reports an extensive, quantitative anatomical characterization of simulated motoneurons and Purkinje cells. We used several local and global algorithms implemented in the L-Neuron and ArborVitae programs to generate sets of virtual neurons. Parameters statistics for all algorithms were measured from experimental data, thus providing a compact and consistent description of these morphological classes. We compared the emergent anatomical features of each group of virtual neurons with those of the experimental database in order to gain insights on the plausibility of the model assumptions, potential improvements to the algorithms, and non-trivial relations among morphological parameters. Algorithms mainly based on local constraints (e.g., branch diameter) were successful in reproducing many morphological properties of both motoneurons and Purkinje cells (e.g. total length, asymmetry, number of bifurcations). The addition of global constraints (e.g., trophic factors) improved the angle-dependent emergent characteristics (average Euclidean distance from the soma to the dendritic terminations, dendritic spread). Virtual neurons systematically displayed greater anatomical variability than real cells, suggesting the need for additional constraints in the models. For several emergent anatomical properties, a specific algorithm reproduced the experimental statistics better than the others did. However, relative performances were often reversed for different anatomical properties and/or morphological classes. Thus, combining the strengths of alternative generative models could lead to comprehensive algorithms for the complete and accurate simulation of dendritic morphology.

Using modelling tools to optimise the calculation and subsequent reduction of cable distortion parameters with application to oil well logging systems

This paper discusses how the use of computer-based modelling tools has aided the design of a telemetry unit for use with oil well logging. With the aid of modern computer-based simulation techniques, the new design is capable of operating at data rates of 2.5 times faster than previous designs.

Prediction of processed cheese instrumental texture and meltability by mid-infrared spectroscopy coupled with chemometric tools

The objective of this study was to determine the potential of mid-infrared spectroscopy coupled with multidimensional statistical analysis for the prediction of processed cheese instrumental texture and meltability attributes. Processed cheeses (n = 32) of varying composition were manufactured in a pilot plant. Following two and four weeks storage at 4 degrees C samples were analysed using texture profile analysis, two meltability tests (computer vision, Olson and Price) and mid-infrared spectroscopy (4000-640 cm(-1)). Partial least squares regression was used to develop predictive models for all measured attributes. Five attributes were successfully modelled with varying degrees of accuracy. The computer vision meltability model allowed for discrimination between high and low melt values (R-2 = 0.64). The hardness and springiness models gave approximate quantitative results (R-2 = 0.77) and the cohesiveness (R-2 = 0.81) and Olson and Price meltability (R-2 = 0.88) models gave good prediction results. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved..

Advanced global optimisation for mission analysis and design

This report describes the analysis and development of novel tools for the global optimisation of relevant mission design problems. A taxonomy was created for mission design problems, and an empirical analysis of their optimisational complexity performed - it was demonstrated that the use of global optimisation was necessary on most classes and informed the selection of appropriate global algorithms. The selected algorithms were then applied to the di®erent problem classes: Di®erential Evolution was found to be the most e±cient. Considering the speci¯c problem of multiple gravity assist trajectory design, a search space pruning algorithm was developed that displays both polynomial time and space complexity. Empirically, this was shown to typically achieve search space reductions of greater than six orders of magnitude, thus reducing signi¯cantly the complexity of the subsequent optimisation. The algorithm was fully implemented in a software package that allows simple visualisation of high-dimensional search spaces, and e®ective optimisation over the reduced search bounds.

Does tool use extend peripersonal space? A review and re-analysis

The fascinating idea that tools become extensions of our body appears in artistic, literary, philosophical, and scientific works alike. In the last fifteen years, this idea has been re-framed into several related hypotheses, one of which states that tool use extends the neural representation of the multisensory space immediately surrounding the hands (variously termed peripersonal space, peri-hand space, peri-cutaneous space, action space, or near space). This and related hypotheses have been tested extensively in the cognitive neurosciences, with evidence from molecular, neurophysiological, neuroimaging, neuropsychological, and behavioural fields. Here, I briefly review the evidence for and against the hypothesis that tool use extends a neural representation of the space surrounding the hand, concentrating on neurophysiological, neuropsychological, and behavioural evidence. I then provide a re-analysis of data from six published and one unpublished experiments using the crossmodal congruency task to test this hypothesis. While the re-analysis broadly confirms the previously-reported finding that tool use does not literally extend peripersonal space, the overall effect-sizes are small and statistical power is low. I conclude by questioning whether the crossmodal congruency task can indeed be used to test the hypothesis that tool use modifies peripersonal space.

On reliability analysis of multi-categorical forecasts

Reliability analysis of probabilistic forecasts, in particular through the rank histogram or Talagrand diagram, is revisited. Two shortcomings are pointed out: Firstly, a uniform rank histogram is but a necessary condition for reliability. Secondly, if the forecast is assumed to be reliable, an indication is needed how far a histogram is expected to deviate from uniformity merely due to randomness. Concerning the first shortcoming, it is suggested that forecasts be grouped or stratified along suitable criteria, and that reliability is analyzed individually for each forecast stratum. A reliable forecast should have uniform histograms for all individual forecast strata, not only for all forecasts as a whole. As to the second shortcoming, instead of the observed frequencies, the probability of the observed frequency is plotted, providing and indication of the likelihood of the result under the hypothesis that the forecast is reliable. Furthermore, a Goodness-Of-Fit statistic is discussed which is essentially the reliability term of the Ignorance score. The discussed tools are applied to medium range forecasts for 2 m-temperature anomalies at several locations and lead times. The forecasts are stratified along the expected ranked probability score. Those forecasts which feature a high expected score turn out to be particularly unreliable.