Flood frequency analysis by a bivariate model based on copulas

La adecuada estimación de avenidas de diseño asociadas a altos periodos de retorno es necesaria para el diseño y gestión de estructuras hidráulicas como presas. En la práctica, la estimación de estos cuantiles se realiza normalmente a través de análisis de frecuencia univariados, basados en su mayoría en el estudio de caudales punta. Sin embargo, la naturaleza de las avenidas es multivariada, siendo esencial tener en cuenta características representativas de las avenidas, tales como caudal punta, volumen y duración del hidrograma, con el fin de llevar a cabo un análisis apropiado; especialmente cuando el caudal de entrada se transforma en un caudal de salida diferente durante el proceso de laminación en un embalse o llanura de inundación. Los análisis de frecuencia de avenidas multivariados han sido tradicionalmente llevados a cabo mediante el uso de distribuciones bivariadas estándar con el fin de modelar variables correlacionadas. Sin embargo, su uso conlleva limitaciones como la necesidad de usar el mismo tipo de distribuciones marginales para todas las variables y la existencia de una relación de dependencia lineal entre ellas. Recientemente, el uso de cópulas se ha extendido en hidrología debido a sus beneficios en relación al contexto multivariado, permitiendo superar los inconvenientes de las técnicas tradicionales. Una copula es una función que representa la estructura de dependencia de las variables de estudio, y permite obtener la distribución de frecuencia multivariada de dichas variables mediante sus distribuciones marginales, sin importar el tipo de distribución marginal utilizada. La estimación de periodos de retorno multivariados, y por lo tanto, de cuantiles multivariados, también se facilita debido a la manera en la que las cópulas están formuladas. La presente tesis doctoral busca proporcionar metodologías que mejoren las técnicas tradicionales usadas por profesionales para estimar cuantiles de avenida más adecuados para el diseño y la gestión de presas, así como para la evaluación del riesgo de avenida, mediante análisis de frecuencia de avenidas bivariados basados en cópulas. Las variables consideradas para ello son el caudal punta y el volumen del hidrograma. Con el objetivo de llevar a cabo un estudio completo, la presente investigación abarca: (i) el análisis de frecuencia de avenidas local bivariado centrado en examinar y comparar los periodos de retorno teóricos basados en la probabilidad natural de ocurrencia de una avenida, con el periodo de retorno asociado al riesgo de sobrevertido de la presa bajo análisis, con el fin de proporcionar cuantiles en una estación de aforo determinada; (ii) la extensión del enfoque local al regional, proporcionando un procedimiento completo para llevar a cabo un análisis de frecuencia de avenidas regional bivariado para proporcionar cuantiles en estaciones sin aforar o para mejorar la estimación de dichos cuantiles en estaciones aforadas; (iii) el uso de cópulas para investigar tendencias bivariadas en avenidas debido al aumento de los niveles de urbanización en una cuenca; y (iv) la extensión de series de avenida observadas mediante la combinación de los beneficios de un modelo basado en cópulas y de un modelo hidrometeorológico. Accurate design flood estimates associated with high return periods are necessary to design and manage hydraulic structures such as dams. In practice, the estimate of such quantiles is usually done via univariate flood frequency analyses, mostly based on the study of peak flows. Nevertheless, the nature of floods is multivariate, being essential to consider representative flood characteristics, such as flood peak, hydrograph volume and hydrograph duration to carry out an appropriate analysis; especially when the inflow peak is transformed into a different outflow peak during the routing process in a reservoir or floodplain. Multivariate flood frequency analyses have been traditionally performed by using standard bivariate distributions to model correlated variables, yet they entail some shortcomings such as the need of using the same kind of marginal distribution for all variables and the assumption of a linear dependence relation between them. Recently, the use of copulas has been extended in hydrology because of their benefits regarding dealing with the multivariate context, as they overcome the drawbacks of the traditional approach. A copula is a function that represents the dependence structure of the studied variables, and allows obtaining the multivariate frequency distribution of them by using their marginal distributions, regardless of the kind of marginal distributions considered. The estimate of multivariate return periods, and therefore multivariate quantiles, is also facilitated by the way in which copulas are formulated. The present doctoral thesis seeks to provide methodologies that improve traditional techniques used by practitioners, in order to estimate more appropriate flood quantiles for dam design, dam management and flood risk assessment, through bivariate flood frequency analyses based on the copula approach. The flood variables considered for that goal are peak flow and hydrograph volume. In order to accomplish a complete study, the present research addresses: (i) a bivariate local flood frequency analysis focused on examining and comparing theoretical return periods based on the natural probability of occurrence of a flood, with the return period associated with the risk of dam overtopping, to estimate quantiles at a given gauged site; (ii) the extension of the local to the regional approach, supplying a complete procedure for performing a bivariate regional flood frequency analysis to either estimate quantiles at ungauged sites or improve at-site estimates at gauged sites; (iii) the use of copulas to investigate bivariate flood trends due to increasing urbanisation levels in a catchment; and (iv) the extension of observed flood series by combining the benefits of a copula-based model and a hydro-meteorological model.

Development of a PWR-W and an AP1000® containment building 3D model with a CFD code for Best-Estimate Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis

The simulation of design basis accidents in a containment building is usually conducted with a lumped parameter model. The codes normally used by Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) for that license analysis are WGOTHIC or COCO, which are suitable to provide an adequate estimation of the overall peak temperature and pressure of the containment. However, for the detailed study of the thermal-hydraulic behavior in every room and compartment of the containment building, it could be more convenient to model the containment with a more detailed 3D representation of the geometry of the whole building. The main objective of this project is to obtain a standard PWR Westinghouse as well as an AP1000® containment model for a CFD code to analyze the thermal-hydraulic detailed behavior during a design basis accident. In this paper the development and testing of both containment models is presented.

Modal analysis of buildings : quantification of uncertainties and model updating

Una estructura vibra con la suma de sus infinitos modos de vibración, definidos por sus parámetros modales (frecuencias naturales, formas modales y coeficientes de amortiguamiento). Estos parámetros se pueden identificar a través del Análisis Modal Operacional (OMA). Así, un equipo de investigación de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid ha identificado las propiedades modales de un edificio de hormigón armado en Madrid con el método Identificación de los sub-espacios estocásticos (SSI). Para completar el estudio dinámico de este edificio, se ha desarrollado un modelo de elementos finitos (FE) de este edificio de 19 plantas. Este modelo se ha calibrado a partir de su comportamiento dinámico obtenido experimentalmente a través del OMA. Los objetivos de esta tesis son; (i) identificar la estructura con varios métodos de SSI y el uso de diferentes ventanas de tiempo de tal manera que se cuantifican incertidumbres de los parámetros modales debidos al proceso de estimación, (ii) desarrollar FEM de este edificio y calibrar este modelo a partir de su comportamiento dinámico, y (iii) valorar la bondad del modelo. Los parámetros modales utilizados en esta calibración han sido; espesor de las losas, densidades de los materiales, módulos de elasticidad, dimensiones de las columnas y las condiciones de contorno de la cimentación. Se ha visto que el modelo actualizado representa el comportamiento dinámico de la estructura con una buena precisión. Por lo tanto, este modelo puede utilizarse dentro de un sistema de monitorización estructural (SHM) y para la detección de daños. En el futuro, podrá estudiar la influencia de los agentes medioambientales, tales como la temperatura o el viento, en los parámetros modales. A structure vibrates according to the sum of its vibration modes, defined by their modal parameters (natural frequencies, damping ratios and modal shapes). These parameters can be identified through Operational Modal Analysis (OMA). Thus, a research team of the Technical University of Madrid has identified the modal properties of a reinforced-concrete-frame building in Madrid using the Stochastic Subspace Identification (SSI) method and a time domain technique for the OMA. To complete the dynamic study of this building, a finite element model (FE) of this 19-floor building has been developed throughout this thesis. This model has been updated from its dynamic behavior identified by the OMA. The objectives of this thesis are to; (i) identify the structure with several SSI methods and using different time blocks in such a way that uncertainties due to the modal parameter estimation are quantified, (ii) develop a FEM of this building and tune this model from its dynamic behavior, and (iii) Assess the quality of the model, the modal parameters used in this updating process have been; thickness of slabs, material densities, modulus of elasticity, column dimensions and foundation boundary conditions. It has been shown that the final updated model represents the structure with a very good accuracy. Thus, this model might be used within a structural health monitoring framework (SHM). The study of the influence of changing environmental factors (such as temperature or wind) on the model parameters might be considered as a future work.

Estudio y análisis para la elaboración de un modelo de certificado de calidad cinegética en España = Study and analysis for the development of a model of hunting quality certificate in Spain

Con esta tesis doctoral se pretende elaborar un modelo de Certificado de Calidad Cinegética independiente, de adhesión voluntaria y aplicable a todo tipo de espacios cinegéticos, de forma que posteriormente pueda convertirse en una metodología que sea empleada como instrumento válido de medición de la Calidad Cinegética y normalizada a través de una familia de Normas aprobadas por un organismo de normalización reconocido a nivel nacional o internacional. En primer lugar, se procedió a la realización de un riguroso y exhaustivo estudio de justificación siguiendo la metodología propuesta por la Norma UNE 66172:2003 IN, Directrices para la justificación y desarrollo de sistemas de gestión (equivalente a la Norma Internacional GUIA ISO/IEC 72:2001). A continuación, se procedió a la identificación y desarrollo de los parámetros de Ordenación Cinegética comunes a cualquier espacio cinegético en España y a la conceptualización de la Calidad Cinegética. Finalmente, se desarrolló un modelo estructurado en nueve Criterios y treinta y cuatro Indicadores de Calidad Cinegética, y un proyecto de familia de Normas para la Certificación de la Calidad Cinegética. ABSTRACT This doctoral thesis aims to produce a model of Hunting Quality Certificate independent, of voluntary adherence and applicable to all types of hunting areas, so that later it can become a methodology to be used as a valid instrument for measuring Hunting Quality and standardized through a family of standards approved by an organization of standardization recognized at a national or an international level. First, we proceeded to carry out a rigorous and comprehensive justification study following the methodology proposed by the UNE 66172: 2003 IN, Guidelines for the justification and development of management systems standards (equivalent to the International Standard GUIA ISO / IEC 72: 2001). Then, we proceeded to the identification and development of Hunting Management parameters common to any hunting area in Spain and the conceptualization of Hunting Quality. Finally, a model structured into nine Criteria and thirty-four Indicators of Hunting Quality and a draft of a family of standards for Hunting Quality Certification were developed.

Application of a SPH depth-integrated model to landslide run-out analysis

Hazard and risk assessment of landslides with potentially long run-out is becoming more and more important. Numerical tools exploiting different constitutive models, initial data and numerical solution techniques are important for making the expert’s assessment more objective, even though they cannot substitute for the expert’s understanding of the site-specific conditions and the involved processes. This paper presents a depth-integrated model accounting for pore water pressure dissipation and applications both to real events and problems for which analytical solutions exist. The main ingredients are: (i) The mathematical model, which includes pore pressure dissipation as an additional equation. This makes possible to model flowslide problems with a high mobility at the beginning, the landslide mass coming to rest once pore water pressures dissipate. (ii) The rheological models describing basal friction: Bingham, frictional, Voellmy and cohesive-frictional viscous models. (iii) We have implemented simple erosion laws, providing a comparison between the approaches of Egashira, Hungr and Blanc. (iv) We propose a Lagrangian SPH model to discretize the equations, including pore water pressure information associated to the moving SPH nodes

Nonlinear analysis of a simple model of temperature evolution in a satellite

We analyze a simple model of the heat transfer to and from a small satellite orbiting round a solar system planet. Our approach considers the satellite isothermal, with external heat input from the environment and from internal energy dissipation, and output to the environment as black-body radiation. The resulting nonlinear ordinary differential equation for the satellite’s temperature is analyzed by qualitative, perturbation and numerical methods, which prove that the temperature approaches a periodic pattern (attracting limit cycle). This approach can occur in two ways, according to the values of the parameters: (i) a slow decay towards the limit cycle over a time longer than the period, or (ii) a fast decay towards the limit cycle over a time shorter than the period. In the first case, an exactly soluble average equation is valid. We discuss the consequences of our model for the thermal stability of satellites.

The folded plate model in structural analysis. Elastic, plastic and dynamic formulations for nonprismatic structures

A specific numerical procedure for the analysis of arbitrary nonprismatic folded plate structures is presented. An elastic model is studied and compared with a harmonic solution for a prismatic structure. An extension to the plastic analysis is developed, and the influence of the structural geometry and loading pattern is analyzed. Nonprismatic practical cases, with arbitrary geometry and loading are shown, as well in the elastic range as in the plastic one. Finally, a dynamic formulation is outlined

Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.

Phylogenomic analysis of natural products biosynthetic gene clusters allows discovery of arseno-organic metabolites in model streptomycetes

We are indebted with Marnix Medema, Paul Straight and Sean Rovito, for useful discussions and critical reading of the manuscript, as well as with Alicia Chagolla and Yolanda Rodriguez of the MS Service of Unidad Irapuato, Cinvestav, and Araceli Fernandez for technical support in high-performance computing. This work was funded by Conacyt Mexico (grants No. 179290 and 177568) and FINNOVA Mexico (grant No. 214716) to FBG. PCM was funded by Conacyt scholarship (No. 28830) and a Cinvestav posdoctoral fellowship. JF and JFK acknowledge funding from the College of Physical Sciences, University of Aberdeen, UK.

Analysis of genomic alterations in benign, atypical, and anaplastic meningiomas: Toward a genetic model of meningioma progression

Nineteen benign [World Health Organization (WHO) grade I; MI], 21 atypical (WHO grade II; MII), and 19 anaplastic (WHO grade III; MIII) sporadic meningiomas were screened for chromosomal imbalances by comparative genomic hybridization (CGH). These data were supplemented by molecular genetic analyses of selected chromosomal regions and genes. With increasing malignancy grade, a marked accumulation of genomic aberrations was observed; i.e., the numbers (mean ± SEM) of total alterations detected per tumor were 2.9 ± 0.7 for MI, 9.2 ± 1.2 for MII, and 13.3 ± 1.9 for MIII. The most frequent alteration detected in MI was loss on 22q (58%). In MII, aberrations most commonly identified were losses on 1p (76%), 22q (71%), 14q (43%), 18q (43%), 10 (38%), and 6q (33%), as well as gains on 20q (48%), 12q (43%), 15q (43%), 1q (33%), 9q (33%), and 17q (33%). In MIII, most of these alterations were found at similar frequencies. However, an increase in losses on 6q (53%), 10 (68%), and 14q (63%) was observed. In addition, 32% of MIII demonstrated loss on 9p. Homozygous deletions in the CDKN2A gene at 9p21 were found in 4 of 16 MIII (25%). Highly amplified DNA sequences were mapped to 12q13–q15 by CGH in 1 MII. Southern blot analysis of this tumor revealed amplification of CDK4 and MDM2. By CGH, DNA sequences from 17q were found to be amplified in 1 MII and 8 MIII, involving 17q23 in all cases. Despite the high frequency of chromosomal aberrations in the MII and MIII investigated, none of these tumors showed mutations in exons 5–8 of the TP53 gene. On the basis of the most common aberrations identified in the various malignancy grades, a model for the genomic alterations associated with meningioma progression is proposed.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Reverse Transcriptase and Protease Sequence Database: an expanded data model integrating natural language text and sequence analysis programs

The HIV Reverse Transcriptase and Protease Sequence Database is an on-line relational database that catalogs evolutionary and drug-related sequence variation in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) reverse transcriptase (RT) and protease enzymes, the molecular targets of anti-HIV therapy (http://hivdb.stanford.edu). The database contains a compilation of nearly all published HIV RT and protease sequences, including submissions from International Collaboration databases and sequences published in journal articles. Sequences are linked to data about the source of the sequence sample and the antiretroviral drug treatment history of the individual from whom the isolate was obtained. During the past year 3500 sequences have been added and the data model has been expanded to include drug susceptibility data on sequenced isolates. Database content has also been integrated with didactic text and the output of two sequence analysis programs.

The Arabidopsis Information Resource (TAIR): a comprehensive database and web-based information retrieval, analysis, and visualization system for a model plant

Arabidopsis thaliana, a small annual plant belonging to the mustard family, is the subject of study by an estimated 7000 researchers around the world. In addition to the large body of genetic, physiological and biochemical data gathered for this plant, it will be the first higher plant genome to be completely sequenced, with completion expected at the end of the year 2000. The sequencing effort has been coordinated by an international collaboration, the Arabidopsis Genome Initiative (AGI). The rationale for intensive investigation of Arabidopsis is that it is an excellent model for higher plants. In order to maximize use of the knowledge gained about this plant, there is a need for a comprehensive database and information retrieval and analysis system that will provide user-friendly access to Arabidopsis information. This paper describes the initial steps we have taken toward realizing these goals in a project called The Arabidopsis Information Resource (TAIR) (www.arabidopsis.org).

Structural Analysis and Molecular Model of a Self-Incompatibility RNase from Wild Tomato1

Self-incompatibility RNases (S-RNases) are an allelic series of style glycoproteins associated with rejection of self-pollen in solanaceous plants. The nucleotide sequences of S-RNase alleles from several genera have been determined, but the structure of the gene products has only been described for those from Nicotiana alata. We report on the N-glycan structures and the disulfide bonding of the S3-RNase from wild tomato (Lycopersicon peruvianum) and use this and other information to construct a model of this molecule. The S3-RNase has a single N-glycosylation site (Asn-28) to which one of three N-glycans is attached. S3-RNase has seven Cys residues; six are involved in disulfide linkages (Cys-16-Cys-21, Cys-46-Cys-91, and Cys-166-Cys-177), and one has a free thiol group (Cys-150). The disulfide-bonding pattern is consistent with that observed in RNase Rh, a related RNase for which radiographic-crystallographic information is available. A molecular model of the S3-RNase shows that four of the most variable regions of the S-RNases are clustered on one surface of the molecule. This is discussed in the context of recent experiments that set out to determine the regions of the S-RNase important for recognition during the self-incompatibility response.

A role of Hsp60 in autoimmune diabetes: analysis in a transgenic model.

A pathogenic role for self-reactive cells against the stress protein Hsp60 has been proposed as one of the events leading to autoimmune destruction of pancreatic beta cells in the diabetes of nonobese diabetic (NOD) mice. To examine this hypothesis, we generated transgenic NOD mice carrying a murine Hsp60 transgene driven by the H-2E alpha class II promoter. This would be expected to direct expression of the transgene to antigen-presenting cells including those in the thymus and so induce immunological tolerance by deletion. Detailed analysis of Hsp60 expression revealed that the endogenous gene is itself expressed strongly in thymic medullary epithelium (and weakly in cortex) yet fails to induce tolerance. Transgenic mice with retargeted Hsp60 showed overexpression of the gene in thymic cortical epithelium and in bone marrow-derived cells. Analysis of spontaneous T-cell responses to a panel of self and heterologous Hsp60 antigens showed that tolerance to the protein had not been induced, although responses to an immunodominant 437-460 epitope implicated in disease were suppressed, probably indicating an epitope shift. This correlated with changes in disease susceptibility: insulitis in transgenic mice was substantially reduced so that pathology rarely progressed beyond periislet infiltration. This was reflected in a substantial reduction in hyperglycemia and disease. These data indicate that T cells specific for some epitopes of murine Hsp60 are likely to be involved in the islet-cell destruction that occurs in NOD mice.