Balance of payments dominance: its implications for macroeconomic policy

This paper defines “balance of payments dominance” as a macroeconomic regime in which the short-term macroeconomic dynamics is essentially determined by external shocks, positive or negative. It argues that this is the predominant regime in emerging and developing countries. Trade shocks play an important role but the major procyclical shocks are associated with boom-bust cycles in external financing. Policy challenges are associated not only with the management of such shocks but also with the need to enhance the space for countercyclical macroeconomic policies, as boom-bust cycles tend to pressure macroeconomic policies to behave in a procyclical way. Under these conditions, the best bet is to design policies to reduce external vulnerabilities through a mix of administered exchange rate policies, very active foreign exchange reserve management, reduced reliance on external borrowing, and macroprudential regulations, including those directly affecting capital flows. Countercyclical fiscal policy can also play a role but face strong economic and political economy challenges.

Stochastic discount factor bounds and rare events: a review

We aim to provide a review of the stochastic discount factor bounds usually applied to diagnose asset pricing models. In particular, we mainly discuss the bounds used to analyze the disaster model of Barro (2006). Our attention is focused in this disaster model since the stochastic discount factor bounds that are applied to study the performance of disaster models usually consider the approach of Barro (2006). We first present the entropy bounds that provide a diagnosis of the analyzed disaster model which are the methods of Almeida and Garcia (2012, 2016); Ghosh et al. (2016). Then, we discuss how their results according to the disaster model are related to each other and also present the findings of other methodologies that are similar to these bounds but provide different evidence about the performance of the framework developed by Barro (2006).

Balance of payments dominance : its implocations for macroeconomic policy

This paper defines “balance of payments dominance” as a macroeconomic regime in which the short-term macroeconomic dynamics is essentially determined by external shocks, positive or negative. It argues that this is the predominant regime in emerging and developing countries. Trade shocks play an important role but the major procyclical shocks are associated with boom-bust cycles in external financing. Policy challenges are associated not only with the management of such shocks but also with the need to enhance the space for countercyclical macroeconomic policies, as boom-bust cycles tend to pressure macroeconomic policies to behave in a procyclical way. Under these conditions, the best bet is to design policies to reduce external vulnerabilities through a mix of administered exchange rate flexibility, very active foreign exchange reserve management, reduced reliance on external borrowing, and macroprudential regulations, including those directly affecting capital flows. Countercyclical fiscal policy can also play a role but face strong economic and political economy challenges.

Contested dominance modifies the anovulatory consequences of social subordination in female marmosets

Dominance status among female marmosets is reflected in agonistic behavior and ovarian function. Socially dominant females receive submissive behavior from subordinates, while exhibiting normal ovulatory function. Subordinate females, however, receive agonistic behavior from dominants, while exhibiting reduced or absent ovulatory function. Such disparity in female fertility is not absolute, and groups with two breeding females have been described. The data reported here were obtained from 8 female-female pairs of captive female marmosets, each housed with a single unrelated male. Pairs were classified into two groups: “uncontested” dominance (UD) and “contested” dominance (CD), with 4 pairs each. Dominant females in UD pairs showed significantly higher frequencies (4.1) of agonism (piloerection, attack and chasing) than their subordinates (0.36), and agonistic behaviors were overall more frequently displayed by CD than by UD pairs. Subordinates in CD pairs exhibited more agonistic behavior (2.9) than subordinates in UD pairs (0.36), which displayed significantly more submissive (6.97) behaviors than their dominants (0.35). The data suggest that there is more than one kind of dominance relationship between female common marmosets. Assessment of progesterone levels showed that while subordinates in UD pairs appeared to be anovulatory, the degree of ovulatory disruption in subordinates of CD pairs was more varied and less complete. We suggest that such variation in female-female social dominance relationships and the associated variation in the degree and reliability of fertility suppression may explain variations of the reproductive condition of free-living groups of common marmosets

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Characterization of a plankton community in a fish farm

Aim: The objective of this study was to analyze the composition of phytoplankton and zooplankton communities related to the dynamics of a fish farm; Methods: Samples were collected every other day, within a period of twenty consecutive days, during the dry and rainy seasons. Two samples were collected upstream from the fish pond (reservoir); the other four samples were collected in the fish farm area; Results: Rotifera and Chlorophyceae species were found in high densities at almost all sampling sites during both seasons under analysis. The higher phytoplankton species richness from site P3 to P6 was influenced by the management employed within the fish farm. The zooplankton community showed low values of density, species richness and equitability during the dry season; Conclusions: The continuous water flow and the addition of fertilizers (organic and inorganic) in the fish ponds had an influence on the plankton community, leading to a reduction in water quality and Cyanobacteria dominance.

Dominance of legume trees alters nutrient relations in mixed species forest restoration plantings within seven years

Failures in reforestation are often attributed to nutrient limitation for tree growth. We compared tree performance and nitrogen and phosphorus relations in adjacent mixed-species plantings of contrasting composition, established for forest restoration on Ultisol soil, originally covered by tropical semi-deciduous Atlantic Forest in Southeast Brazil. Nutrient relations of four tree species occurring in both planting mixtures were compared between a legume-dominated, species-poor direct seeding mixture of early-successional species ("legume mixture"), and a species-diverse, legume-poor mixture of all successional groups ("diverse mixture"). After 7 years, the legume mixture had 6-fold higher abundance of N(2)-fixing trees, 177% higher total tree basal area, 22% lower litter C/N, six-fold higher in situ soil resin-nitrate, and 40% lower in situ soil resin-P, compared to the diverse mixture. In the legume mixture, non-N(2)-fixing legume Schizolobium parahyba (Fabaceae-Caesalpinioideae) had significantly lower proportional N resorption, and both naturally regenerating non-legume trees had significantly higher leaf N concentrations, and higher proportional P resorption, than in the diverse mixture. This demonstrate forms of plastic adjustment in all three non-N(2)-fixing species to diverged nutrient relations between mixtures. By contrast, leaf nutrient relations in N(2)-fixing Enterolobium contortisiliquum (Fabaceae-Mimosoideae) did not respond to planting mixtures. Rapid N accumulation in the legume mixture caused excess soil nitrification over nitrate immobilization and tighter P recycling compared with the diverse mixture. The legume mixture succeeded in accelerating tree growth and canopy closure, but may imply periods of N losses and possibly P limitation. Incorporation of species with efficient nitrate uptake and P mobilization from resistant soil pools offers potential to optimize these tradeoffs.

The succession dynamics of a macroalgal community after a flood disturbance in a tropical stream from São Paulo State, southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Macroalgas de riachos da Floresta Nacional de Irati, região centro-sul do Estado do Paraná, Sul do Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

O efeito do regime hidrológico do semiárido na composição de espécies durante dominância de cianobactérias em um reservatório tropical

The potentially toxic cyanobacterial blooms in water bodies are spread across the globe, resulting in the loss of water quality and adverse effects on human health. In arid and semiarid regions, the hydrologic regime characterized by an annual cycle of drought and rain, change the volume and the retention time of the reservoir. Such changes affect the limnological characteristics and causing changes in composition and biomass community of cyanobacteria. The reservoir Cruzeta (Zmax = 8.7 m) is a eutrophic water supply source located in the semiarid tropical (Northeast Brazil). Raised the hypothesis that the hydrological regime of semi-arid tropical is a determining factor in the availability of resources in eutrophic water sources, which influences the composition of dominant species of cyanobacteria. The aim of this study was to analyze the changes in biomass and species composition of cyanobacteria for two annual hydrological cycles and evaluate factors drivers. The study was divided into five distinct periods (dry 2010, rain 2011, dry 2011, rain 2012, dry 2012). The dominant group found in all periods was Cyanobacteria (99% of total biomass), which contributed to the low diversity. The filamentous species Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii was present at both points in almost every study. The colonial species Microcystis panniformis and Sphaerocavum brasiliensis dominated only in periods with lower volumes of water. The diatoms contribute more to the biomass during the period of severe drought. The point near the dam (P1) had phytoplankton biomass larger than the point near the tributary (P2). The dominant species of colonial cyanobacteria lasted until the overflow in P1, and P2 this dominance was until the first rains. The redundancy analysis indicated that physical factors such as light availability and water level were the main factors driving the seasonal succession of phytoplankton. The composition of phytoplankton in spring was alternated by species of filamentous cyanobacteria in conditions of poor stability of the water column, such as Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii, and colonial species under conditions of high stability of the water column, such as Microcystis panniformis and Sphaerocavum brasiliensis. The extremes of torrential rains and severe droughts, governed by the hydrological regime of the semi-arid region led to the availability of resources in the watershed, directing the spatial and temporal dynamics of phytoplankton in the reservoir Cruzeta

Stochastic modelling considering ionospheric scintillation effects on GNSS relative and point positioning

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Improving the GNSS positioning stochastic model in the presence of ionospheric scintillation

Ionospheric scintillations are caused by time-varying electron density irregularities in the ionosphere, occurring more often at equatorial and high latitudes. This paper focuses exclusively on experiments undertaken in Europe, at geographic latitudes between similar to 50 degrees N and similar to 80 degrees N, where a network of GPS receivers capable of monitoring Total Electron Content and ionospheric scintillation parameters was deployed. The widely used ionospheric scintillation indices S4 and sigma(phi) represent a practical measure of the intensity of amplitude and phase scintillation affecting GNSS receivers. However, they do not provide sufficient information regarding the actual tracking errors that degrade GNSS receiver performance. Suitable receiver tracking models, sensitive to ionospheric scintillation, allow the computation of the variance of the output error of the receiver PLL (Phase Locked Loop) and DLL (Delay Locked Loop), which expresses the quality of the range measurements used by the receiver to calculate user position. The ability of such models of incorporating phase and amplitude scintillation effects into the variance of these tracking errors underpins our proposed method of applying relative weights to measurements from different satellites. That gives the least squares stochastic model used for position computation a more realistic representation, vis-a-vis the otherwise 'equal weights' model. For pseudorange processing, relative weights were computed, so that a 'scintillation-mitigated' solution could be performed and compared to the (non-mitigated) 'equal weights' solution. An improvement between 17 and 38% in height accuracy was achieved when an epoch by epoch differential solution was computed over baselines ranging from 1 to 750 km. The method was then compared with alternative approaches that can be used to improve the least squares stochastic model such as weighting according to satellite elevation angle and by the inverse of the square of the standard deviation of the code/carrier divergence (sigma CCDiv). The influence of multipath effects on the proposed mitigation approach is also discussed. With the use of high rate scintillation data in addition to the scintillation indices a carrier phase based mitigated solution was also implemented and compared with the conventional solution. During a period of occurrence of high phase scintillation it was observed that problems related to ambiguity resolution can be reduced by the use of the proposed mitigated solution.

Biomonitoramento da qualidade da água e ações em educação ambiental em dois açudes da bacia hidrográfica Apodi-Mossoró, RN

Water scarcity is a reality for the inhabitants of the Brazilian semiarid region. The problem, in quantitative terms , is caused due to local climatic conditions due mostly to a water deficit. Qualitatively, results of multiple uses and resulting contamination by human activities. Eutrophication is presented as a threat to the sustainable use of water resources, in order to favor the predominance of dense populations of cyanobacteria, which can be potentially harmful to human health. The aim of this study is to understand the population dynamics of phytoplankton and cyanobacteria to assess water quality of reservoirs Santa Cruz do Apodi and Pau dos Ferros belonging to bacia Apodi Mossoró-RN . Water samples were collected monthly between October 2011 and May 2012 in reservoirs Santa Cruz do Apodi and Pau dos Ferros, in this latter , in Jan/12 we performed a diel profile . The abiotic variables obtained in the field and in the laboratory were: water temperature , dissolved oxygen , pH , turbidity , transparency , total nitrogen and total phosphorus . Phytoplankton samples were collected with a plankton net and bottle of Van dorn . Were performed : identification , quantification , calculation of biovolume , classification into functional groups and index calculation phytoplankton assembly ( Q ) , cyanotoxins were quantified by ELISA . Statistical analyzes supported the evaluation of the dynamics between biotic and abiotic factors. A questionnaire was conducted to examine the conceptions of the population, education professionals and students. The reservoir of Pau dos Ferros, shallow , turbid and eutrophic showed dominance of the functional group SN throughout the sample period . The phytoplankton biomass ranged from 20 to 70 mm ³ . L - 1, the lowest values coincided with the increase of the mixing zone and transparency, which contributed to the occurrence of a change in species composition phytoplankton . The application of the index Q proved relevant, the reservoir of Pau dos Ferros , depending on the species present , was classified ecologically as bad for almost the entire sample period . The reservoir Santa Cruz do Apodi showed low biomass ( 0.04 and 4.31 mm ³ . L - 1 ) and greater diversity in the phytoplankton composition . According to the index assembly (Q ), it showed moderate condition during most of the period influenced by different functional groups of typical meso- eutrophic environment (K S0, H1, C, F , J , E, D and N) . Associations of diatoms and green algae D and X1 succeeded populations of cyanobacteria in periods marked by greater instability in the system , caused by wind or rain. In summary , the occurrence of drought has a direct influence on the hydrological conditions of the reservoirs , in general, these events, reducing the reservoir level is directly related to decreased water quality and increased density of phytoplankton occurring predominance of cyanobacteria , the index Q reflected well to changes in phytoplankton composition , being a good indicator for biomonitoring of reservoirs in this study and survey of previous conceptions showed the need to work on environmental awareness for the preservation of water resources by conducting workshops for Environmental Education

Chromosomal features of nucleolar dominance in hybrids between the Neotropical fish Leporinus macrocephalus and Leporinus elongatus (Characiformes, Anostomidae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)