Inequality over the business cycle: Estimating income risk using micro-data on consumption

We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income, to evaluate the nature of increased income inequality in the 1980s and 90s. We decompose unexpected changes in family income into transitory and permanent, and idiosyncratic and aggregate components, and estimate the contribution of each component to total inequality. The model we use is a linearized incomplete markets model, enriched to incorporate risk-sharing while maintaining tractability. Our estimates suggest that taking risk sharing into account is important for the model fit; that the increase in inequality in the 1980s was mainly permanent; and that inequality is driven almost entirely by idiosyncratic income risk. In addition we find no evidence for cyclical behavior of consumption risk, casting doubt on Constantinides and Duffie s (1995) explanation for the equity premium puzzle.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995-1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

Demographic and behavioral factors associated with adolescent pregnancy in Switzerland.

Switzerland has the lowest adolescent fertility rate in Western Europe. According to data collected in 1993 as part of the Swiss Multicentre Adolescent Survey on Health, 5% of 1,726 sexually active adolescents in a group of 3,993 15-20-year-old women enrolled in academic or vocational classes had ever been pregnant; most of these women (80%) had terminated their pregnancy. Adolescents who had ever been pregnant did not differ significantly from those who had not by demographic characteristics. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified seven factors associated with pregnancy: having had four or more sexual partners; not having used contraceptives at first intercourse; ever use of less-effective contraceptive methods; having used illicit drugs during the last 30 days; living apart from one's parents; recently experiencing stress; and perceiving a lack of future prospects.

First description of reproductive behavior of the Amazonian damselfly Chalcopteryx rutilans (Rambur) (Odonata, Polythoridae)

Polythoridae comprise a widespread group of species in the New World tropics, but little is known about their behavior or life history. Here, we described the reproductive behavior of Amazonian Chalchopteryx rutilans, using mark-recapture techniques. Males were resident and territorial, though we found disputes (complex flight manoeuvres) to be rare. Trunks (rotting wood) were important to male persistence in sites, as these are the locations preferred by females for oviposition. The mating system of C. rutilans may be comparable to the resource limitation category, described by Conrad & Pritchard (1992), where males cannot control female access to oviposition sites. So, female choice becomes important and apparently, the observed displays (in which males flash the coppery coloration of their hind wings) may be related to attraction of females to territories, as in a lek system.

A simple model of multiple equilibria based on risk

This paper shows how risk may aggravate fluctuations in economies with imperfect insurance and multiple assets. A two period job matching model is studied, in which risk averse agents act both as workers and as entrepreneurs. They choose between two types of investment: one type is riskless, while the other is a risky activity that creates jobs.Equilibrium is unique under full insurance. If investment is fully insured but unemployment risk is uninsured, then precautionary saving behavior dampens output fluctuations. However, if both investment and employment are uninsured, then an increase in unemployment gives agents an incentive to shift investment away from the risky asset, further increasing unemployment. This positive feedback may lead to multiple Pareto ranked equilibria. An overlapping generations version of the model may exhibit poverty traps or persistent multiplicity. Greater insurance is doubly beneficial in this context since it can both prevent multiplicity and promote risky investment.

Effect of Citrus floral extracts on the foraging behavior of the stingless bee Scaptotrigona pectoralis (Dalla Torre)

Effect of Citrus floral extracts on the foraging behavior of the stingless bee Scaptotrigona pectoralis (Dalla Torre). Stingless bees have an important role as pollinators of many wild and cultivated plant species in tropical regions. Little is known, however, about the interaction between floral fragrances and the foraging behavior of meliponine species. Thus we investigated the chemical composition of the extracts of citric (lemon and orange) flowers and their effects on the foraging behavior of the stingless bee Scaptotrigona pectoralis. We found that each type of flower has its own specific blend of major compounds: limonene (62.9%) for lemon flowers, and farnesol (26.5%), (E)-nerolidol (20.8%), and linalool (12.7%) for orange flowers. In the foraging experiments the S. pectoralis workers were able to use the flower extracts to orient to the food source, overlooking plates baited with hexane only. However, orange flower extracts were seemingly more attractive to these worker bees, maybe because of the particular blend present in it. Our results reveal that these fragrances are very attractive to S. pectoralis, so we can infer that within citric orchards they could be important visitors in the study area; however habitat destruction, overuse of pesticides and the competitive override by managed honeybees might have put at risk their populations and thus the ecological services they provide to us.

Adolescent(e)s migrant(e)s et sexualité [Migrant adolescents and sexuality].

Besides its emotional, hormonal and physical components, sexuality has also an important social function. Analyzing these interactions in immigrant adolescents who are challenged at the same time by developmental changes and modified cultural and social rules--especially if they differ from the rules assimilated during childhood--might help professionals to access better comprehension. Personal experience, individual and external resources, whether they are family oriented or professional, are prone to influence on behavior, perception and outcome related to sexual health. The subject is discussed on the base of scientific literature and medical practice.

Chronic illness, life style and emotional health in adolescence: results of a cross-sectional survey on the health of 15-20-year-olds in Switzerland.

The objective was to evaluate the prevalence of chronic conditions (CC) in adolescents in Switzerland; to describe their behaviour (leisure, sexuality, risk taking behaviour) and to compare them to those in adolescents who do not have CC in order to evaluate the impact of those conditions on their well-being. The data were obtained from the Swiss Multicentre Adolescent Survey on Health, targeting a sample of 9268 in-school adolescents aged 15 to 20 years, who answered a self-administered questionnaire. Some 11.4% of girls and 9.6% of boys declared themselves carriers of a CC. Of girls suffering from a CC, 25% (versus 13% of non carriers; P=0.007) and 38% of boys (versus 25%; P=0.002) proclaimed not to wear a seatbelt whilst driving. Of CC girls, 6.3% (versus 2.7%; P=0.000) reported within the last 12 months to have driven whilst drunk. Of the girls, 43% (versus 36%; P=0.004) and 47% (versus 39%; P=0.001) were cigarette smokers. Over 32% of boys (versus 27%; P=0.02) reported having ever used cannabis and 17% of girls (versus 13%; P=0.013) and 43% of boys (versus 36%; P=0.002) admitted drinking alcohol. The burden of their illness had important psychological consequences: 7.7% of girls (versus 3.4%; P=0.000) and 4.9% of boys (versus 2.0%; P=0.000) had attempted suicide during the previous 12 months. CONCLUSION: experimental behaviours are not rarer in adolescents with a chronic condition and might be explained by a need to test their limits both in terms of consumption and behaviour. Prevention and specific attention from the health caring team is necessary.

Vers un accès à des soins de qualité pour les personnes lesbiennes, gays, bisexuelles et transgenres. [Access to quality primary care for LGBT people].

Cet article propose une approche globale de la santé des personnes lesbiennes, gays, bisexuelles, et transgenres (LGBT), où respect des singularités et non-jugement occupent une position centrale. Il invite à dépasser une vision centrée sur les risques liés au VIH. Pour qui n'a pas connu de questionnement en lien avec son orientation sexuelle ou son identité de genre, il est difficile de concevoir comment la découverte d'une caractéristique identitaire pendant l'enfance peut se transformer sous le regard des autres en un fardeau souvent invisible mais fréquemment associé avec une morbidité émotionnelle et médicale considérable. Cet article pose la question suivante : combien de personnes LGBT ressortent chaque semaine d'une consultation médicale sans avoir eu l'opportunité de bénéficier d'une écoute, d'un soutien et de soins adaptés ? [Abstract] This article offers a comprehensive approach to the health of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) people, where respect for diversity and non judgemental care play a central role. It calls for a health and medical vision that goes beyond HIV risk. For those who never had to question their own sexual orientation or gender identity, it is certainly difficult to understand how the discovery of one's identity trait in childhood or early adolescence can be transformed under social pressure into a burden which often remains invisible but is associated with considerable emotional and medical morbidity. This article raises the following question : How many LGBT patients go unnoticed every week, leaving the physician's office without an opportunity to receive appropriate listening, support and care ?

Low prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection in asymptomatic young Swiss men

BACKGROUND: Prevalence and risk factors for Chlamydia trachomatis infection among young men in Switzerland is still unknown. The objective of the present study was to assess prevalence and risk factors for C. trachomatis infection in young Swiss men. METHODS: 517 young Swiss men were enrolled in this cross-sectional study during their compulsory military recruitment. Participants completed a questionnaire and gave urine samples which were screened for C. trachomatis DNA by PCR. Genotyping of positive samples was done by amplification and sequencing the ompA gene. RESULTS: The prevalence of chlamydial infection among young Swiss male was 1.2% (95% confidence interval [95%CI], 0.4-2.5%). C. trachomatis infection was only identified among the 306 men having multiple sexual partner. Although frequent, neither unprotected sex (absence of condom use), nor alcohol and drug abuse were associated with chlamydial infection. Men living in cities were more frequently infected (2.9%, 95%CI 0.8-7.4%) than men living in rural areas (0.5%, 95%CI 0.1-1.9%, p = 0.046). Moreover, naturalised Swiss citizens were more often positive (4.9%, 95%CI 1.3-12.5%) than native-born Swiss men (0.5%, 95%CI 0.1-1.7%, p = 0.003). CONCLUSION: In comparison with other countries, the prevalence of chlamydial infection in men is extremely low in Switzerland, despite a significant prevalence of risky sexual behaviour. C. trachomatis infection was especially prevalent in men with multiple sexual partners. Further research is required (i) to define which subgroup of the general population should be routinely screened, and (ii) to test whether such a targeted screening strategy will be effective to reduce the prevalence of chlamydial infection among this population.

Documento sobre salud sexual y reproductiva en la adolescencia

El grup ha analitzat els problemes existents quant a la salut sexual i reproductiva en l'adolescència i la validesa del consentimentinformat dels menors. Aquesta qüestió requereix un debat social informat, encaminat a assolir el consens suficient per portar a terme les actuacions necessàries -d'acord amb la normativa ja existent per a la majoria dels supòsits- que protegeixin l'interès del menor, considerat en la nostra legislació com sempre preferent.

Alcohol consumption in late adolescence and early adulthood - where is the problem?

Risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD) is more common in late adolescence and early adulthood (approximately between the ages of 16 and 30) than in any other period in life. This is also the age when young people in Switzerland and many other European countries are legally allowed to buy and drink alcohol, but they usually do not yet have adult responsibilities. This paper reviews evidence from the international literature and provides examples of studies conducted in Switzerland demonstrating that (a) RSOD is by far most prevalent on Saturday evenings followed by Friday evenings, usually because young people go out and do not have any work or study responsibilities the next day; (b) RSOD results from drinking in private before going out ("predrinking") and accelerating the pace of drinking (i.e. increasing the number of drinks consumed per hour); (c) RSOD is often not accidental but purposeful,. to seek excitement, to have fun and to feel the effects of alcohol; (d) RSOD occurs predominantly outside the home, mostly in bars, pubs, discos or at special events and festivals; (e) RSOD often results in intended and unintended injuries and other acute consequences, which are leading risk factors for mortality and morbidity in this age group. Effective prevention strategies should include attempts to reduce opportunities to engage in heavy drinking as well as strategies to reduce its harmful consequences.

A test of Jessor's problem behavior theory in a Eurasian and a Western European developmental context.

PURPOSE: The current study tested the applicability of Jessor's problem behavior theory (PBT) in national probability samples from Georgia and Switzerland. Comparisons focused on (1) the applicability of the problem behavior syndrome (PBS) in both developmental contexts, and (2) on the applicability of employing a set of theory-driven risk and protective factors in the prediction of problem behaviors. METHODS: School-based questionnaire data were collected from n = 18,239 adolescents in Georgia (n = 9499) and Switzerland (n = 8740) following the same protocol. Participants rated five measures of problem behaviors (alcohol and drug use, problems because of alcohol and drug use, and deviance), three risk factors (future uncertainty, depression, and stress), and three protective factors (family, peer, and school attachment). Final study samples included n = 9043 Georgian youth (mean age = 15.57; 58.8% females) and n = 8348 Swiss youth (mean age = 17.95; 48.5% females). Data analyses were completed using structural equation modeling, path analyses, and post hoc z-tests for comparisons of regression coefficients. RESULTS: Findings indicated that the PBS replicated in both samples, and that theory-driven risk and protective factors accounted for 13% and 10% in Georgian and Swiss samples, respectively in the PBS, net the effects by demographic variables. Follow-up z-tests provided evidence of some differences in the magnitude, but not direction, in five of six individual paths by country. CONCLUSION: PBT and the PBS find empirical support in these Eurasian and Western European samples; thus, Jessor's theory holds value and promise in understanding the etiology of adolescent problem behaviors outside of the United States.

Life-course socioeconomic environment and health risk behaviours: a multilevel small-area analysis of young-old persons in an urban neighbourhood in Lausanne, Switzerland

With a life expectancy at the age of 65 of around 20 years, damaging health risk behaviours of young-old adults have become a target for preventive actions. Such risk factors necessitate an accurate understanding of the present and past socioeconomic conditions associated with health risk behaviours. The aim of our study is to assess the impact of certain life events as well as economic and environmental factors on health risk behaviours. We included 1309 participants of the Lausanne Cohort Lc65+ aged 65-70 years and employed logistic regression analyses, with individuals nested within areas. The results illustrate the influences of socioeconomic factors from childhood to young-old age. Life experiences in adulthood and economic resources in young-old age are both associated with unfavourable health behaviours. Neighbourhood is a modest determinant as well, particularly regarding alcohol consumption. Therefore, prevention against health risk behaviours should focus on population subgroups defined on the basis of their socioeconomic and living contexts.

Three essays in risk management in financial institutions

The choice to adopt risk-sensitive measurement approaches for operational risks: the case of Advanced Measurement Approach under Basel II New Capital Accord This paper investigates the choice of the operational risk approach under Basel II requirements and whether the adoption of advanced risk measurement approaches allows banks to save capital. Among the three possible approaches for operational risk measurement, the Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) is the most sophisticated and requires the use of historical loss data, the application of statistical tools, and the engagement of a highly qualified staff. Our results provide evidence that the adoption of AMA is contingent on the availability of bank resources and prior experience in risk-sensitive operational risk measurement practices. Moreover, banks that choose AMA exhibit low requirements for capital and, as a result might gain a competitive advantage compared to banks that opt for less sophisticated approaches. - Internal Risk Controls and their Impact on Bank Solvency Recent cases in financial sector showed the importance of risk management controls on risk taking and firm performance. Despite advances in the design and implementation of risk management mechanisms, there is little research on their impact on behavior and performance of firms. Based on data from a sample of 88 banks covering the period between 2004 and 2010, we provide evidence that internal risk controls impact the solvency of banks. In addition, our results show that the level of internal risk controls leads to a higher degree of solvency in banks with a major shareholder in contrast to widely-held banks. However, the relationship between internal risk controls and bank solvency is negatively affected by BHC growth strategies and external restrictions on bank activities, while the higher regulatory requirements for bank capital moderates positively this relationship. - The Impact of the Sophistication of Risk Measurement Approaches under Basel II on Bank Holding Companies Value Previous research showed the importance of external regulation on banks' behavior. Some inefficient standards may accentuate risk-taking in banks and provoke a financial crisis. Despite the growing literature on the potential effects of Basel II rules, there is little empirical research on the efficiency of risk-sensitive capital measurement approaches and their impact on bank profitability and market valuation. Based on data from a sample of 66 banks covering the period between 2008 and 2010, we provide evidence that prudential ratios computed under Basel II standards predict the value of banks. However, this relation is contingent on the degree of sophistication of risk measurement approaches that banks apply. Capital ratios are effective in predicting bank market valuation when banks adopt the advanced approaches to compute the value of their risk-weighted assets.