The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability

The impact of systematic model errors on a coupled simulation of the Asian Summer monsoon and its interannual variability is studied. Although the mean monsoon climate is reasonably well captured, systematic errors in the equatorial Pacific mean that the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is rather poorly represented in the GCM. A system of ocean-surface heat flux adjustments is implemented in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans in order to reduce the systematic biases. In this version of the GCM, the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly the lag-lead relationships in which weak monsoons precede the peak of El Nino. In part this is related to changes in the characteristics of El Nino, which has a more realistic evolution in its developing phase. A stronger ENSO amplitude in the new model version also feeds back to further strengthen the teleconnection. These results have important implications for the use of coupled models for seasonal prediction of systems such as the monsoon, and suggest that some form of flux correction may have significant benefits where model systematic error compromises important teleconnections and modes of interannual variability.

Evaluating the century C model using long-term fertilizer trials in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, India

The GEFSOC Project developed a system for estimating soil carbon (C) stocks and changes at the national and sub-national scale. As part of the development of the system, the Century ecosystem model was evaluated for its ability to simulate soil organic C (SOC) changes in environmental conditions in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, India (IGP). Two long-term fertilizer trials (LTFT), with all necessary parameters needed to run Century, were used for this purpose: a jute (Corchorus capsularis L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) trial at Barrackpore, West Bengal, and a rice-wheat trial at Ludhiana, Punjab. The trials represent two contrasting climates of the IGP, viz. semi-arid, dry with mean annual rainfall (MAR) of < 800 mm and humid with > 1600 turn. Both trials involved several different treatments with different organic and inorganic fertilizer inputs. In general, the model tended to overestimate treatment effects by approximately 15%. At the semi-arid site, modelled data simulated actual data reasonably well for all treatments, with the control and chemical N + farm yard manure showing the best agreement (RMSE = 7). At the humid site, Century performed less well. This could have been due to a range of factors including site history. During the study, Century was calibrated to simulate crop yields for the two sites considered using data from across the Indian IGP. However, further adjustments may improve model performance at these sites and others in the IGP. The availability of more longterm experimental data sets (especially those involving flooded lowland rice and triple cropping systems from the IGP) for testing and validation is critical to the application of the model's predictive capabilities for this area of the Indian sub-continent. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulating SOC changes in 11 land use change chronosequences from the Brazilian Amazon with RothC and Century models

Land use and land cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon have major implications for regional and global carbon (C) cycling. Cattle pasture represents the largest single use (about 70%) of this once-forested land in most of the region. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the RothC and Century models at estimating soil organic C (SOC) changes under forest-to-pasture conditions in the Brazilian Amazon. We used data from 11 site-specific 'forest to pasture' chronosequences with the Century Ecosystem Model (Century 4.0) and the Rothamsted C Model (RothC 26.3). The models predicted that forest clearance and conversion to well managed pasture would cause an initial decline in soil C stocks (0-20 cm depth), followed in the majority of cases by a slow rise to levels exceeding those under native forest. One exception to this pattern was a chronosequence in Suia-Missu, which is under degraded pasture. In three other chronosequences the recovery of soil C under pasture appeared to be only to about the same level as under the previous forest. Statistical tests were applied to determine levels of agreement between simulated SOC stocks and observed stocks for all the sites within the 11 chronosequences. The models also provided reasonable estimates (coefficient of correlation = 0.8) of the microbial biomass C in the 0-10 cm soil layer for three chronosequences, when compared with available measured data. The Century model adequately predicted the magnitude and the overall trend in delta C-13 for the six chronosequences where measured 813 C data were available. This study gave independent tests of model performance, as no adjustments were made to the models to generate outputs. Our results suggest that modelling techniques can be successfully used for monitoring soil C stocks and changes, allowing both the identification of current patterns in the soil and the projection of future conditions. Results were used and discussed not only to evaluate soil C dynamics but also to indicate soil C sequestration opportunities for the Brazilian Amazon region. Moreover, modelling studies in these 'forest to pasture' systems have important applications, for example, the calculation of CO, emissions from land use change in national greenhouse gas inventories. (0 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of the variability of biological nutrients against depth and potential density.

The main biogeochemical nutrient distributions, along with ambient ocean temperature and the light field, control ocean biological productivity. Observations of nutrients are much sparser than physical observations of temperature and salinity, yet it is critical to validate biogeochemical models against these sparse observations if we are to successfully model biological variability and trends. Here we use data from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study and the World Ocean Database 2005 to demonstrate quantitatively that over the entire globe a significant fraction of the temporal variability of phosphate, silicate and nitrate within the oceans is correlated with water density. The temporal variability of these nutrients as a function of depth is almost always greater than as a function of potential density, with he largest reductions in variability found within the main pycnocline. The greater nutrient variability as a function of depth occurs when dynamical processes vertically displace nutrient and density fields together on shorter timescales than biological adjustments. These results show that dynamical processes can have a significant impact on the instantaneous nutrient distributions. These processes must therefore be considered when modeling biogeochemical systems, when comparing such models with observations, or when assimilating data into such models.

Bayesian estimation and selection of nonlinear vector error correction models: The case of the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil

Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors. A range of models are estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms and compared using Bayesian model selection methods. The results suggest that the long-run drivers of Brazilian sugar prices are oil prices and that there are nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of sugar and ethanol prices to oil price but linear adjustment between ethanol and sugar prices.

Food consumption impacts of adherence to dietary norms in the United States: a quantitative assessment

Promotion of adherence to healthy-eating norms has become an important element of nutrition policy in the United States and other developed countries. We assess the potential consumption impacts of adherence to a set of recommended dietary norms in the United States using a mathematical programming approach. We find that adherence to recommended dietary norms would involve significant changes in diets, with large reductions in the consumption of fats and oils along with large increases in the consumption of fruits, vegetables, and cereals. Compliance with norms recommended by the World Health Organization for energy derived from sugar would involve sharp reductions in sugar intakes. We also analyze how dietary adjustments required vary across demographic groups. Most socio-demographic characteristics appear to have relatively little influence on the pattern of adjustment required to comply with norms, Income levels have little effect on required dietary adjustments. Education is the only characteristic to have a significant influence on the magnitude of adjustments required. The least educated rather than the poorest have to bear the highest burden of adjustment. Out- analysis suggests that fiscal measures like nutrient-based taxes may not be as regressive as commonly believed. Dissemination of healthy-eating norms to the less educated will be a key challenge for nutrition policy.

Food consumption impacts of adherence to dietary norms in the United States: a quantitative assessment

Promotion of adherence to healthy-eating norms has become an important element of nutrition policy in the United States and other developed countries. We assess the potential consumption impacts of adherence to a set of recommended dietary norms in the United States using a mathematical programming approach. We find that adherence to recommended dietary norms would involve significant changes in diets, with large reductions in the consumption of fats and oils along with large increases in the consumption of fruits, vegetables, and cereals. Compliance with norms recommended by the World Health Organization for energy derived from sugar would involve sharp reductions in sugar intakes. We also analyze how dietary adjustments required vary across demographic groups. Most socio-demographic characteristics appear to have relatively little influence on the pattern of adjustment required to comply with norms, Income levels have little effect on required dietary adjustments. Education is the only characteristic to have a significant influence on the magnitude of adjustments required. The least educated rather than the poorest have to bear the highest burden of adjustment. Out- analysis suggests that fiscal measures like nutrient-based taxes may not be as regressive as commonly believed. Dissemination of healthy-eating norms to the less educated will be a key challenge for nutrition policy.

Neural systems in the visual control of steering

Visual control of locomotion is essential for most mammals and requires coordination between perceptual processes and action systems. Previous research on the neural systems engaged by self-motion has focused on heading perception, which is only one perceptual subcomponent. For effective steering, it is necessary to perceive an appropriate future path and then bring about the required change to heading. Using function magnetic resonance imaging in humans, we reveal a role for the parietal eye fields (PEFs) in directing spatially selective processes relating to future path information. A parietal area close to PEFs appears to be specialized for processing the future path information itself. Furthermore, a separate parietal area responds to visual position error signals, which occur when steering adjustments are imprecise. A network of three areas, the cerebellum, the supplementary eye fields, and dorsal premotor cortex, was found to be involved in generating appropriate motor responses for steering adjustments. This may reflect the demands of integrating visual inputs with the output response for the control device.

Achieving or exceeding maximum available feedback

A feedback system for control or electronics should have high loop gain, so that its output is close to its desired state, and the effects of changes in the system and of disturbances are minimised. Bode proposed a method for single loop feedback systems to obtain the maximum available feedback, defined as the largest possible loop gain over a bandwidth pertinent to the system, with appropriate gain and phase margins. The method uses asymptotic approximations, and this paper describes some novel adjustments to the asymptotes, so that the final system often exceeds the maximum available feedback. The implementation of the method requires the cascading of a series of lead-lag element. This paper describes a new way to determine how many elements should be used.

Observed adaptation to climate change: UK evidence of transition to a well-adapting society

This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping) to building adaptive capacity, implementing actions and creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These actions within government stimulate a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (or in the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The water supply and flood defence sectors, requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure such as reservoirs and coastal defences, have invested more heavily in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Economic sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that while the government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost, it may also have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries.

An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends

An updated analysis of observed stratospheric temperature variability and trends is presented on the basis of satellite, radiosonde, and lidar observations. Satellite data include measurements from the series of NOAA operational instruments, including the Microwave Sounding Unit covering 1979–2007 and the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) covering 1979–2005. Radiosonde results are compared for six different data sets, incorporating a variety of homogeneity adjustments to account for changes in instrumentation and observational practices. Temperature changes in the lower stratosphere show cooling of 0.5 K/decade over much of the globe for 1979–2007, with some differences in detail among the different radiosonde and satellite data sets. Substantially larger cooling trends are observed in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during spring and summer, in association with development of the Antarctic ozone hole. Trends in the lower stratosphere derived from radiosonde data are also analyzed for a longer record (back to 1958); trends for the presatellite era (1958–1978) have a large range among the different homogenized data sets, implying large trend uncertainties. Trends in the middle and upper stratosphere have been derived from updated SSU data, taking into account changes in the SSU weighting functions due to observed atmospheric CO2 increases. The results show mean cooling of 0.5–1.5 K/decade during 1979–2005, with the greatest cooling in the upper stratosphere near 40–50 km. Temperature anomalies throughout the stratosphere were relatively constant during the decade 1995–2005. Long records of lidar temperature measurements at a few locations show reasonable agreement with SSU trends, although sampling uncertainties are large in the localized lidar measurements. Updated estimates of the solar cycle influence on stratospheric temperatures show a statistically significant signal in the tropics (30N–S), with an amplitude (solar maximum minus solar minimum) of 0.5 K (lower stratosphere) to 1.0 K (upper stratosphere).

Driving saccade to pursuit using image motion

Within the context of active vision, scant attention has been paid to the execution of motion saccades—rapid re-adjustments of the direction of gaze to attend to moving objects. In this paper we first develop a methodology for, and give real-time demonstrations of, the use of motion detection and segmentation processes to initiate capture saccades towards a moving object. The saccade is driven by both position and velocity of the moving target under the assumption of constant target velocity, using prediction to overcome the delay introduced by visual processing. We next demonstrate the use of a first order approximation to the segmented motion field to compute bounds on the time-to-contact in the presence of looming motion. If the bound falls below a safe limit, a panic saccade is fired, moving the camera away from the approaching object. We then describe the use of image motion to realize smooth pursuit, tracking using velocity information alone, where the camera is moved so as to null a single constant image motion fitted within a central image region. Finally, we glue together capture saccades with smooth pursuit, thus effecting changes in both what is being attended to and how it is being attended to. To couple the different visual activities of waiting, saccading, pursuing and panicking, we use a finite state machine which provides inherent robustness outside of visual processing and provides a means of making repeated exploration. We demonstrate in repeated trials that the transition from saccadic motion to tracking is more likely to succeed using position and velocity control, than when using position alone.

The persistence of real estate fund performance

This paper examines the short and long-term persistence of tax-exempt real estate funds in the UK through the use of winner-loser contingency table methodology. The persistence tests are applied to a database of varying numbers of funds from a low of 16 to a high of 27 using quarterly returns over the 12 years from 1990 Q1 to 2001 Q4. The overall conclusion is that the real estate funds in the UK show little evidence of persistence in the short-term (quarterly and semi-annual data) or for data over a considerable length of time (bi-annual to six yearly intervals). In contrast, the results are better for annual data with evidence of significant performance persistence. Thus at this stage, it seems that an annual evaluation period, provides the best discrimination of the winner and loser phenomenon in the real estate market. This result is different from equity and bond studies, where it seems that the repeat winner phenomenon is stronger over shorter periods of evaluation. These results require careful interpretation, however, as the results show that when only small samples are used significant adjustments must be made to correct for small sample bias and second the conclusions are sensitive to the length of the evaluation period and specific test used. Nonetheless, it seems that persistence in performance of real estate funds in the UK does exist, at least for the annual data, and it appears to be a guide to beating the pack in the long run. Furthermore, although the evidence of persistence in performance for the overall sample of funds is limited, we have found evidence that two funds were consistent winners over this period, whereas no one fund could be said to be a consistent loser.

Narrativising the facts: acting in screen and stage docudrama

This article presents findings and seeks to establish the theoretical markers that indicate the growing importance of fact-based drama in screen and theatre performance to the wider Anglophone culture. During the final decade of the twentieth century and the opening one of the twenty-first, television docudrama and documentary theatre have grown in visibility and importance in the UK, providing key responses to social, cultural and political change over the millennial period. Actors were the prime focus for the enquiry principally because so little research has been done into the special demands that fact-based performance makes on them. The main emphasis in actor training (in the UK at any rate) is, as it always has been, on preparation for fictional drama. Preparation in acting schools is also heavily geared towards stage performance. Our thesis was that performers called upon to play the roles of real people, in whatever medium, have added responsibilities both towards history and towards real individuals and their families. Actors must engage with ethical questions whether they like it or not, and we found them keenly aware of this. In the course of the research, we conducted 30 interviews with a selection of actors ranging from the experienced to the recently-trained. We also interviewed a few industry professionals and actor trainers. Once the interviews started it was clear that actors themselves made little or no distinction between how they set about their work for television and film. The essential disciplines for work in front of the camera, they told us, are the same whether the camera is electronic or photographic. Some adjustments become necessary, of course in the multi-camera TV studio. But much serious drama for the screen is made on film anyway. We found it was also the case that young actors now tend to get their first paid employment before a camera rather than on a stage. The screen-before-stage tendency, along with the fundamental re-shaping that has gone on in the British theatre since at least the early 1980s, had implications for actor training. We have also found that theatre work still tends to be most valued by actors. For all the actors we interviewed, theatre was what they liked doing best because it was there they could practice and develop their skills, there they could work most collectively towards performance, and there they could more directly experience audience feedback in the real time of the stage play. The current world of television has been especially constrained in regard to rehearsal time in comparison to theatre (and, to a lesser extent, film). This has also affected actors’ valuation of their work. Theatre is, and is not, the most important medium in which they find work. Theatre is most important spiritually and intellectually, because in theatre is collaborative, intensive, and involving; theatre is not as important in financial and career terms, because it is not as lucrative and not as visible to a large public as acting for the screen. Many actors took the view that, for all the industrial differences that do affect them and inevitably interest the academic, acting for the visible media of theatre, film and television involved fundamentally the same process with slightly different emphases.

PPARγ2 gene Pro12Ala and PPARα gene Leu162Val single nucleotide polymorphisms interact with dietary intake of fat in determination of plasma lipid concentrations

Background/Aims: The peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs) are transcriptional regulators of lipid metabolism, activated by unsaturated fatty acids. We investigated independent and interactive effects of PPARγ2 gene PPARG Pro12Ala (rs1801282) andPPARαgene PPARA Leu162Val (rs1800206) genotypes with dietary intake of fatty acids on concentrations of plasma lipids in subjects of whom 47.5% had metabolic syndrome. Methods: The RISCK study is a parallel design, randomised controlled trial. Plasma lipids were quantified at baseline after a 4-week high saturated fatty acids diet and after three parallel 24-week interventions with reference (high saturated fatty acids), high monounsaturated fatty acids and low-fat diets. Single nucleotide polymorphisms were genotyped in 466 subjects. Results: At baseline, the PPARG Ala12allele was associated with increased plasma total cholesterol (n = 378; p = 0.04), LDL cholesterol (p = 0.05) and apoB (p =0.05) after adjustment for age, gender and ethnicity. At baseline, PPARA Leu162Val × PPARG Pro12Ala genotype interaction did not significantly influence plasma lipid concentrations. After dietary intervention, gene-gene interaction significantly influenced LDL cholesterol (p =0.0002) and small dense LDL as a proportion of LDL (p = 0.005) after adjustments. Conclusions: Interaction between PPARG Pro12Ala and PPARA Leu162Valgenotypes may influence plasma LDL cholesterol concentration and the proportion as small dense LDL after a high monounsaturated fatty acids diet.