Testing unit root based on partially adaptive estimation

This paper proposes unit tests based on partially adaptive estimation. The proposed tests provide an intermediate class of inference procedures that are more efficient than the traditional OLS-based methods and simpler than unit root tests based on fully adptive estimation using nonparametric methods. The limiting distribution of the proposed test is a combination of standard normal and the traditional Dickey-Fuller (DF) distribution, including the traditional ADF test as a special case when using Gaussian density. Taking into a account the well documented characteristic of heavy-tail behavior in economic and financial data, we consider unit root tests coupled with a class of partially adaptive M-estimators based on the student-t distributions, wich includes te normal distribution as a limiting case. Monte Carlo Experiments indicate that, in the presence of heavy tail distributions or innovations that are contaminated by outliers, the proposed test is more powerful than the traditional ADF test. We apply the proposed test to several macroeconomic time series that have heavy-tailed distributions. The unit root hypothesis is rejected in U.S. real GNP, supporting the literature of transitory shocks in output. However, evidence against unit roots is not found in real exchange rate and nominal interest rate even haevy-tail is taken into a account.

The Brazilian credit market for small and medium-sized firms: an adaptive marketing approach

Neste trabalho, o mercado brasileiro de crédito para pequenas e médias empresas (PMEs) é analisado sob a perspectiva do marketing adaptativo, em que se assume que atividades mercadológicas como segmentação, gestão de relacionamento com clientes, apreçamento e desenvolvimento de produtos, são determinadas pela utilidade obtida por agentes de mercado ao atenderem a demanda. Identifica-se que a existência de assimetria de informações e de custos de transação limita e direciona as atividades de marketing no mercado estudado. A partir de uma amostra com 65.535 propostas de crédito, recebidas e avaliadas por um grande banco brasileiro entre janeiro de 2004 e setembro de 2006, estima-se a utilidade do banco em operações de crédito. Adicionalmente, 17.149 transações de empréstimos concedidos pelo banco ao segmento de pequenas empresas entre abril de 2006 e março de 2007, são investigadas. Finalmente, um conjunto de dados com 1,636 registros obtidos pela junção das bases de dados de propostas e de transações mencionados, é analisado em termos das relações entre taxas de juros e os totais de cobertura oferecidas por meio de garantias de crédito. Os resultados revelam a existência de um ambiente de marketing adaptativo, em que os pequenos tomadores de crédito produtivo são racionados, e aceitam pagar taxas de juros mais elevadas do que outros segmentos. Produtos de créditos baseados em garantias líquidas e com altas taxas de juros são desenvolvidos para suprir de maneira oportuna este segmento racionado de pequenas empresas. Ademais, a utilidade do banco em operações de crédito é afetada pela informação privada que captura ao longo de relacionamentos mantidos com seus cientes. Os resultados implicam que o sistema de marketing financeiro brasileiro não desempenha papel formativo no desenvolvimento econômico, que seria de fomento ao crédito produtivo por meio de empréstimos a baixo custo para pequenas e médias empresas. Um sistema formativo de marketing é improvável em um ambiente com informação imperfeita, como o mercado de crédito brasileiro. O estudo traz informações úteis àqueles interessados no desenvolvimento de mercados de crédito produtivo, tais como profissionais de instituições financeiras; agentes responsáveis por políticas públicas e monetárias de fomento ao crédito; e empreendedores de pequeno e médio porte que necessitem de financiamento externo para seus negócios.

Teste da rede de interconexões de field programmable analog arrays

Os dispositivos analógicos programáveis (FPAAs, do inglês, Field Programmable Analog Arrays), apesar de ainda não terem a mesma popularidade de seus pares digitais (FPGAs, do inglês, Field Programmable Gate Arrays), possuem uma gama de aplicações bastante ampla, que vai desde o condicionamento de sinais em sistemas de instrumentação, até o processamento de sinais de radiofreqüência (RF) em telecomunicações. Porém, ao mesmo tempo em que os FPAAs trouxeram um impressionante ganho na agilidade de concepção de circuitos analógicos, também trouxeram um conjunto de novos problemas relativos ao teste deste tipo de dispositivo. Os FPAAs podem ser divididos em duas partes fundamentais: seus blocos programáveis básicos (CABs, do inglês, Configurable Analog Blocks) e sua rede de interconexões. A rede de interconexões, por sua vez, pode ser dividida em duas partes: interconexões internas (locais e globais entre CABs) e interconexões externas (envolvendo células de I/O). Todas estas partes apresentam características estruturais e funcionais distintas, de forma que devem ser testadas separadamente, pois necessitam que se considerem modelos de falhas, configurações e estímulos de teste específicos para assegurar uma boa taxa de detecção de defeitos. Como trabalhos anteriores já estudaram o teste dos CABs, o foco desta dissertação está direcionado ao desenvolvimento de metodologias que se propõem a testar a rede de interconexões de FPAAs. Apesar das várias diferenças entre as redes de interconexões de FPGAs e FPAAs, muitas também são as semelhanças entre elas, sendo, portanto, indiscutível que o ponto de partida deste trabalho tenha que ser o estudo das muitas técnicas propostas para o teste de interconexões em FPGAs, para posterior adaptação ao caso dos FPAAs. Além disto, embora o seu foco não recaia sobre o teste de CABs, pretende-se utilizá-los como recursos internos do dispositivo passíveis de gerar sinais e analisar respostas de teste, propondo uma abordagem de auto-teste integrado de interconexões que reduza o custo relativo ao equipamento externo de teste. Eventualmente, estes mesmos recursos poderão também ser utilizados para diagnóstico das partes defeituosas. Neste trabalho, utiliza-se como veículo de experimentação um dispositivo específico (Anadigm AN10E40), mas pretende-se que as metodologias de teste propostas sejam abrangentes e possam ser facilmente adaptadas a outros FPAAs comerciais que apresentem redes de interconexão semelhantes.

A unit root test based on partially adaptive estimation

This paper constructs a unit root test baseei on partially adaptive estimation, which is shown to be robust against non-Gaussian innovations. We show that the limiting distribution of the t-statistic is a convex combination of standard normal and DF distribution. Convergence to the DF distribution is obtaineel when the innovations are Gaussian, implying that the traditional ADF test is a special case of the proposed testo Monte Carlo Experiments indicate that, if innovation has heavy tail distribution or are contaminated by outliers, then the proposed test is more powerful than the traditional ADF testo Nominal interest rates (different maturities) are shown to be stationary according to the robust test but not stationary according to the nonrobust ADF testo This result seems to suggest that the failure of rejecting the null of unit root in nominal interest rate may be due to the use of estimation and hypothesis testing procedures that do not consider the absence of Gaussianity in the data.Our results validate practical restrictions on the behavior of the nominal interest rate imposed by CCAPM, optimal monetary policy and option pricing models.

Light exercise causes adaptive changes in muscles of young Brasileiro de Hipismo horses

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The adaptive compensations in endocrine pancreas from glucocorticoid-treated rats are reversible after the interruption of treatment

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A fully adaptive multiresolution scheme for shock computations

The scheme is based on Ami Harten's ideas (Harten, 1994), the main tools coming from wavelet theory, in the framework of multiresolution analysis for cell averages. But instead of evolving cell averages on the finest uniform level, we propose to evolve just the cell averages on the grid determined by the significant wavelet coefficients. Typically, there are few cells in each time step, big cells on smooth regions, and smaller ones close to irregularities of the solution. For the numerical flux, we use a simple uniform central finite difference scheme, adapted to the size of each cell. If any of the required neighboring cell averages is not present, it is interpolated from coarser scales. But we switch to ENO scheme in the finest part of the grids. To show the feasibility and efficiency of the method, it is applied to a system arising in polymer-flooding of an oil reservoir. In terms of CPU time and memory requirements, it outperforms Harten's multiresolution algorithm.The proposed method applies to systems of conservation laws in 1Dpartial derivative(t)u(x, t) + partial derivative(x)f(u(x, t)) = 0, u(x, t) is an element of R-m. (1)In the spirit of finite volume methods, we shall consider the explicit schemeupsilon(mu)(n+1) = upsilon(mu)(n) - Deltat/hmu ((f) over bar (mu) - (f) over bar (mu)-) = [Dupsilon(n)](mu), (2)where mu is a point of an irregular grid Gamma, mu(-) is the left neighbor of A in Gamma, upsilon(mu)(n) approximate to 1/mu-mu(-) integral(mu-)(mu) u(x, t(n))dx are approximated cell averages of the solution, (f) over bar (mu) = (f) over bar (mu)(upsilon(n)) are the numerical fluxes, and D is the numerical evolution operator of the scheme.According to the definition of (f) over bar (mu), several schemes of this type have been proposed and successfully applied (LeVeque, 1990). Godunov, Lax-Wendroff, and ENO are some of the popular names. Godunov scheme resolves well the shocks, but accuracy (of first order) is poor in smooth regions. Lax-Wendroff is of second order, but produces dangerous oscillations close to shocks. ENO schemes are good alternatives, with high order and without serious oscillations. But the price is high computational cost.Ami Harten proposed in (Harten, 1994) a simple strategy to save expensive ENO flux calculations. The basic tools come from multiresolution analysis for cell averages on uniform grids, and the principle is that wavelet coefficients can be used for the characterization of local smoothness.. Typically, only few wavelet coefficients are significant. At the finest level, they indicate discontinuity points, where ENO numerical fluxes are computed exactly. Elsewhere, cheaper fluxes can be safely used, or just interpolated from coarser scales. Different applications of this principle have been explored by several authors, see for example (G-Muller and Muller, 1998).Our scheme also uses Ami Harten's ideas. But instead of evolving the cell averages on the finest uniform level, we propose to evolve the cell averages on sparse grids associated with the significant wavelet coefficients. This means that the total number of cells is small, with big cells in smooth regions and smaller ones close to irregularities. This task requires improved new tools, which are described next.

Digital radiography using digital detector arrays fulfills critical applications for offshore pipelines

Digital radiography in the inspection of welded pipes to be installed under deep water offshore gas and oil pipelines, like a presalt in Brazil, in the paper has been investigated. The aim is to use digital radiography for nondestructive testing of welds as it is already in use in the medical, aerospace, security, automotive, and petrochemical sectors. Among the current options, the DDA (Digital Detector Array) is considered as one of the best solutions to replace industrial films, as well as to increase the sensitivity to reduce the inspection cycle time. This paper shows the results of this new technique, comparing it to radiography with industrial films systems. In this paper, 20 test specimens of longitudinal welded pipe joints, specially prepared with artificial defects like cracks, lack of fusion, lack of penetration, and porosities and slag inclusions with varying dimensions and in 06 different base metal wall thicknesses, were tested and a comparison of the techniques was made. These experiments verified the purposed rules for parameter definitions and selections to control the required digital radiographic image quality as described in the draft international standard ISO/DIS 10893-7. This draft is first standard establishing the parameters for digital radiography on weld seam of welded steel pipes for pressure purposes to be used on gas and oil pipelines.

Mitigation of symmetry condition in positive realness for adaptive control

Feasibility of nonlinear and adaptive control methodologies in multivariable linear time-invariant systems with state-space realization (A, B, C) is apparently limited by the standard strictly positive realness conditions that imply that the product CB must be positive definite symmetric. This paper expands the applicability of the strictly positive realness conditions used for the proofs of stability of adaptive control or control with uncertainty by showing that the not necessarily symmetric CB is only required to have a diagonal Jordan form and positive eigenvalues. The paper also shows that under the new condition any minimum-phase systems can be made strictly positive real via constant output feedback. The paper illustrates the usefulness of these extended properties with an adaptive control example. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neural network based on adaptive resonance theory with continuous training for multi-configuration transient stability analysis of electric power systems

This work presents a methodology to analyze electric power systems transient stability for first swing using a neural network based on adaptive resonance theory (ART) architecture, called Euclidean ARTMAP neural network. The ART architectures present plasticity and stability characteristics, which are very important for the training and to execute the analysis in a fast way. The Euclidean ARTMAP version provides more accurate and faster solutions, when compared to the fuzzy ARTMAP configuration. Three steps are necessary for the network working, training, analysis and continuous training. The training step requires much effort (processing) while the analysis is effectuated almost without computational effort. The proposed network allows approaching several topologies of the electric system at the same time; therefore it is an alternative for real time transient stability of electric power systems. To illustrate the proposed neural network an application is presented for a multi-machine electric power systems composed of 10 synchronous machines, 45 buses and 73 transmission lines. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptive filter feature identification for structural health monitoring in an aeronautical panel

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The adaptive potential of a plant pathogenic fungus, Rhizoctonia solani AG-3, under heat and fungicide stress

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Controlador adaptativo backstepping a estrutura variável

Neste trabalho, um controlador adaptativo backstepping a estrutura variável (Variable Structure Adaptive Backstepping Controller, VS-ABC) é apresentado para plantas monovariáveis, lineares e invariantes no tempo com grau relativo unitário. Ao invés das tradicionais leis integrais para estimação dos parâmetros da planta, leis chaveadas são utilizadas com o objetivo de aumentar a robustez em relação a incertezas paramétricas e distúrbios externos, bem como melhorar o desempenho transitório do sistema. Adicionalmente, o projeto do novo controlador é mais intuitivo quando comparado ao controlador backstepping original, uma vez que os relés introduzidos apresentam amplitudes diretamente relacionadas com os parâmetros nominais da planta. Esta nova abordagem, com uso de estrutura variável, também reduz a complexidade das implementações práticas, motivando a utilização de componentes industriais, tais como, FPGAs (Field Programmable Gate Arrays ), MCUs (Microcontrollers) e DSPs (Digital Signal Processors). Simulações preliminares para um sistema instável de primeira e segunda ordem são apresentadas de modo a corroborar os estudos. Um dos exemplos de Rohrs é ainda abordado através de simulações, para os dois cenários adaptativos: o controlador backstepping adaptativo original e o VS-ABC

Differential vascular adaptive response to stress exposure in male and female rats: Role of gonadal hormones and endothelial cells

Although there are reports concerning a vascular adaptive response to stress in males, this is not yet defined in females. The aim of this study was to delineate functional gender differences in the rat vascular adaptive response to stress and to determine the ability of sex hormones to modulate the stress-induced vascular adaptive response. Responses to noradrenaline were evaluated in aortas, with and without endothelium, from intact, gonadectomized and gonadectomized-hormone-replaced males and females submitted or not to stress (2-h immobilization). Reactivity of the aorta of stressed and non-stressed intact males and females (n = 6-14 per group) was also examined in the presence of L-NAME or indomethacin. Stress decreased and gonadectomy increased maximal responses to noradrenaline in aortas with intact endothelium from both genders. Stress also reduced noradrenaline potency in males. In females, but not males, stress decreased the gonadectomy-induced noradrenaline hyper-reactivity to near that of intact non-stressed rats. Hormone replacement restored the gonadectomy-induced impaired vascular adaptive response to stress. L-NAME, but not indomethacin, abolished the stress-induced decrease in aorta reactivity of males and females. None of the procedures altered reactivity of aortas denuded of endothelium. Conclusion: Stress-induced vascular adaptive responses show gender differences. The magnitude of the adaptive response is dependent on testicular hormones and involves endothelial nitric oxide-system hyperactivity.