Insider Trading and Real Investment

In this paper I analyze the effects of insider trading on real investmentand the insurance role of financial markets. There is a single entrepreneurwho, at a first stage, chooses the level of investment in a risky business.At the second stage, an asset with random payoff is issued and then the entrepreneurreceives some privileged information on the likely realization of productionreturn. At the third stage, trading occurs on the asset market, where theentrepreneur faces the aggregate demand coming from a continuum of rationaluniformed traders and some noise traders. I compare the equilibrium withinsider trading (when the entrepreneur trades on her inside information in theasset market) with the equilibrium in the same market without insider trading. Ifind that permitting insider trading tends to decrease the level of realinvestment. Moreover, the asset market is thinner and the entrepreneur's netsupply of the asset and the hedge ratio are lower, although the asset priceis more informative and volatile.

Resolving identities: Successive crises in a trading room after 9/11

How do organizations cope with extreme uncertainty? The existing literatureis divided on this issue: some argue that organizations deal best withuncertainty in the environment by reproducing it in the organization, whereasothers contend that the orga nization should be protected from theenvironment. In this paper we study the case of a Wall Street investment bankthat lost its entire office and trading technology in the terrorist attack ofSeptember 11 th. The traders survived, but were forced to relocate to amakeshift trading room in New Jersey. During the six months the traders spentoutside New York City, they had to deal with fears and insecurities insidethe company as well as outside it: anxiety about additional attacks,questions of professional identity, doubts about the future of the firm, andambiguities about the future re-location of the trading room. The firmovercame these uncertainties by protecting the traders identities and theirability to engage in sensemaking. The organization held together through aleadership style that managed ambiguities and created the conditions for newsolutions to emerge.

The persistence of abnormal returns at industry and firm levels

The present paper proposes a model for the persistence of abnormal returnsboth at firm and industry levels, when longitudinal data for the profitsof firms classiffied as industries are available. The model produces a two-way variance decomposition of abnormal returns: (a) at firm versus industrylevels, and (b) for permanent versus transitory components. This variancedecomposition supplies information on the relative importance of thefundamental components of abnormal returns that have been discussed in theliterature. The model is applied to a Spanish sample of firms, obtainingresults such as: (a) there are significant and permanent differences betweenprofit rates both at industry and firm levels; (b) variation of abnormal returnsat firm level is greater than at industry level; and (c) firm and industry levelsdo not differ significantly regarding rates of convergence of abnormal returns.

Physical considerations on discrepancies in target volume delineation.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To compare the delineations and interpretations of target volumes by physicians in different radio-oncology centers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eleven Swiss radio-oncology centers delineated volumes according to ICRU 50 recommendations for one prostate and one head and neck case. In order to evaluate the consistency of the volume delineations, the following parameters were determined: 1) the target volumes (GTV, CTV and manually expanded PTV) and their extensions in the three main axes and 2) the correlation of the volume delineated by each pair of centers using the ratio of the intersection to the union (called proximity index). RESULTS: The delineated prostate volume was 105+/-55cm(3) for the CTV and 218+/-44cm(3) for the PTV. The delineated head and neck volume was 46+/-15cm(3) for the GTV, 327+/-154cm(3) for the CTV and 528+/-106cm(3) for the PTV. The mean proximity index for the prostate case was 0.50+/-0.13 for the CTV and 0.57+/-0.11 for the PTV. The proximity index for the head and neck case was 0.45+/-0.09 for the GTV, 0.42+/-0.13 for the CTV and 0.59+/-0.06 for the PTV. CONCLUSIONS: Large discrepancies between all the delineated target volumes were observed. There was an inverse relationship between the CTV volume and the margin between CTV and PTV, leading to less discrepancies in the PTV than is the CTV delineations. There was more spread in the sagittal and frontal planes due to CT pixel anisotropy, which suggests that radiation oncologists should delineate the target volumes not only in the transverse plane, but also in the sagittal and frontal planes to improve the delineation by allowing a consistency check.

Iowa Developments, January 2008, Volume 12, Number 1

Business news from the Iowa Department of Economic Development

Tour Iowa, Volume No. 7, Issue No. 2, Spring 2008

A periodic e-newsletter from the Iowa Tourism Office for group tour planners that focuses on "new, unusual, and just plain different" opportunities for group travelers.

EORTC-ROG expert opinion: radiotherapy volume and treatment guidelines for neoadjuvant radiation of adenocarcinomas of the gastroesophageal junction and the stomach.

PURPOSE: The Gastro-Intestinal Working Party of the EORTC Radiation Oncology Group (GIWP-ROG) developed guidelines for target volume definition in neoadjuvant radiation of adenocarcinomas of the gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) and the stomach. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Guidelines about the definition of the clinical target volume (CTV) are based on a systematic literature review of the location and frequency of local recurrences and lymph node involvement in adenocarcinomas of the GEJ and the stomach. Therefore, MEDLINE was searched up to August 2008. Guidelines concerning prescription, planning and treatment delivery are based on a consensus between the members of the GIWP-ROG. RESULTS: In order to support a curative resection of GEJ and gastric cancer, an individualized preoperative treatment volume based on tumour location has to include the primary tumour and the draining regional lymph nodes area. Therefore we recommend to use the 2nd English Edition of the Japanese Classification of Gastric Carcinoma of the Japanese Gastric Cancer Association which developed the concept of assigning tumours of the GEJ and the stomach to anatomically defined sub-sites corresponding respectively to a distinct lymphatic spread pattern. CONCLUSION: The GIWP-ROG defined guidelines for preoperative irradiation of adenocarcinomas of the GEJ and the stomach to reduce variability in the framework of future clinical trials.

Iowa Developments, May 2008, Volume 17, Number 3

Business News from the Iowa Department of Economic Development

Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case

Agent-based computational economics is becoming widely used in practice. This paperexplores the consistency of some of its standard techniques. We focus in particular on prevailingwholesale electricity trading simulation methods. We include different supply and demandrepresentations and propose the Experience-Weighted Attractions method to include severalbehavioural algorithms. We compare the results across assumptions and to economic theorypredictions. The match is good under best-response and reinforcement learning but not underfictitious play. The simulations perform well under flat and upward-slopping supply bidding,and also for plausible demand elasticity assumptions. Learning is influenced by the number ofbids per plant and the initial conditions. The overall conclusion is that agent-based simulationassumptions are far from innocuous. We link their performance to underlying features, andidentify those that are better suited to model wholesale electricity markets.

The dog that did not bark: Insider trading and crashes

This paper documents that at the individual stock level insiders sales peak many months before a large drop in the stock price, while insiders purchases peak only the month before a large jump. We provide a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on trading constraints and asymmetric information. We test our hypothesis against competing stories such as patterns of insider trading driven by earnings announcement dates, or insiders timing their trades to evade prosecution. Finally we provide new evidence regarding crashes and the degree of information asymmetry.

Implications of dynamic trading for insurance markets

We study the interaction between insurance and capital markets within singlebut general framework.We show that capital markets greatly enhance the risksharing capacity of insurance markets and the scope of risks that areinsurable because efficiency does not depend on the number of agents atrisk, nor on risks being independent, nor on the preferences and endowmentsof agents at risk being the same. We show that agents share risks by buyingfull coverage for their individual risks and provide insurance capitalthrough stock markets.We show that aggregate risk enters private insuranceas positive loading on insurance prices and despite that agents will buyfull coverage. The loading is determined by the risk premium of investorsin the stock market and hence does not depend on the agent s willingnessto pay. Agents provide insurance capital by trading an equally weightedportfolio of insurance company shares and riskless asset. We are able toconstruct agents optimal trading strategies explicitly and for verygeneral preferences.

Iowa Developments, Volume 17, Number 4

Business news from the Iowa Department of Economic Development

Abnormal balance between proliferation and apoptotic cell death in fibroblasts derived from keloid lesions.

A new culture model was developed to study the role of proliferation and apoptosis in the etiology of keloids. Fibroblasts were isolated from the superficial, central, and basal regions of six different keloid lesions by using Dulbecco's Modified Eagle Medium containing 10% fetal calf serum as a culture medium. The growth behavior of each fibroblast fraction was examined in short-term and long-term cultures, and the percentage of apoptotic cells was assessed by in situ end labeling of fragmented DNA. The fibroblasts obtained from the superficial and basal regions of keloid tissue showed population doubling times and saturation densities that were similar to those of age-matched normal fibroblasts. In contrast, the fibroblasts from the center of the keloid lesions showed significantly reduced doubling times (25.9 +/- 6.3 hours versus 43.5 +/- 6.3 hours for normal fibroblasts) and reached higher cell densities. In long-term culture, central keloid fibroblasts formed a stratified three-dimensional structure, contracted the self-produced extracellular matrix, and gave rise to nodular cell aggregates, mimicking the formation of keloid tissue. Apoptotic cells were detected in both normal and keloid-derived fibroblasts, but their numbers were twofold higher in normal cells compared with all keloid fibroblasts. To examine whether apoptosis mediates the therapeutic effect of ionizing radiation on keloids, the cells were exposed to gamma rays at a dose of 8 Gy. Under these conditions, a twofold increase in the population of apoptotic cells was detected. These results indicate that the balance between proliferation and apoptosis is impaired in keloid fibroblasts, which could be responsible for the formation of keloid tumors. The results also suggest that keloids contain at least two different fibroblast fractions that vary in growth behavior and extracellular matrix metabolism.