Simulating dynamic crop growth with an adapted land surface model – JULES-SUCROS: model development and validation

The increasing demand for ecosystem services, in conjunction with climate change, is expected to signif- icantly alter terrestrial ecosystems. In order to evaluate the sustainability of land and water resources, there is a need for a better understanding of the relationships between crop production, land surface characteristics and the energy and water cycles. These relationships are analysed using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). JULES includes the full hydrological cycle and vegetation effects on the energy, water, and carbon fluxes. However, this model currently only simulates land surface processes in natural ecosystems. An adapted version of JULES for agricultural ecosystems, called JULES-SUCROS has therefore been developed. In addition to overall model improvements, JULES-SUCROS includes a dynamic crop growth structure that fully fits within and builds upon the biogeochemical modelling framework for natural vegetation. Specific agro-ecosystem features such as the development of yield-bearing organs and the phenological cycle from sowing till harvest have been included in the model. This paper describes the structure of JULES-SUCROS and evaluates the fluxes simulated with this model against FLUXNET measurements at 6 European sites. We show that JULES-SUCROS significantly improves the correlation between simulated and observed fluxes over cropland and captures well the spatial and temporal vari- ability of the growth conditions in Europe. Simulations with JULES-SUCROS highlight the importance of vegetation structure and phenology, and the impact they have on land–atmosphere interactions.

Fingerprints of changes in annual and seasonal precipitation from CMIP5 models over land and ocean

By comparing annual and seasonal changes in precipitation over land and ocean since 1950 simulated by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) climate models in which natural and anthropogenic forcings have been included, we find that clear global-scale and regional-scale changes due to human influence are expected to have occurred over both land and ocean. These include moistening over northern high latitude land and ocean throughout all seasons and over the northern subtropical oceans during boreal winter. However we show that this signal of human influence is less distinct when considered over the relatively small area of land for which there are adequate observations to make assessments of multi-decadal scale trends. These results imply that extensive and significant changes in precipitation over the land and ocean may have already happened, even though, inadequacies in observations in some parts of the world make it difficult to identify conclusively such a human fingerprint on the global water cycle. In some regions and seasons, due to aliasing of different kinds of variability as a result of sub sampling by the sparse and changing observational coverage, observed trends appear to have been increased, underscoring the difficulties of interpreting the apparent magnitude of observed changes in precipitation.

Numerical modelling of the energy and water cycle of the Baltic Sea

This paper will introduce the Baltex research programme and summarize associated numerical modelling work which has been undertaken during the last five years. The research has broadly managed to clarify the main mechanisms determining the water and energy cycle in the Baltic region, such as the strong dependence upon the large scale atmospheric circulation. It has further been shown that the Baltic Sea has a positive water balance, albeit with large interannual variations. The focus on the modelling studies has been the use of limited area models at ultra-high resolution driven by boundary conditions from global models or from reanalysis data sets. The programme has further initiated a comprehensive integration of atmospheric, land surface and hydrological modelling incorporating snow, sea ice and special lake models. Other aspects of the programme include process studies such as the role of deep convection, air sea interaction and the handling of land surface moisture. Studies have also been undertaken to investigate synoptic and sub-synoptic events over the Baltic region, thus exploring the role of transient weather systems for the hydrological cycle. A special aspect has been the strong interests and commitments of the meteorological and hydrological services because of the potentially large societal interests of operational applications of the research. As a result of this interests special attention has been put on data-assimilation aspects and the use of new types of data such as SSM/I, GPS-measurements and digital radar. A series of high resolution data sets are being produced. One of those, a 1/6 degree daily precipitation climatology for the years 1996–1999, is such a unique contribution. The specific research achievements to be presented in this volume of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics is the result of a cooperative venture between 11 European research groups supported under the EU-Framework programmes.

Development of the Surface Urban Energy and Water balance Scheme (SUEWS) for cold climate cities

The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is developed to include snow. The processes addressed include accumulation of snow on the different urban surface types: snow albedo and density aging, snow melting and re-freezing of meltwater. Individual model parameters are assessed and independently evaluated using long-term observations in the two cold climate cities of Helsinki and Montreal. Eddy covariance sensible and latent heat fluxes and snow depth observations are available for two sites in Montreal and one in Helsinki. Surface runoff from two catchments (24 and 45 ha) in Helsinki and snow properties (albedo and density) from two sites in Montreal are also analysed. As multiple observation sites with different land-cover characteristics are available in both cities, model development is conducted independent of evaluation. The developed model simulates snowmelt related runoff well (within 19% and 3% for the two catchments in Helsinki when there is snow on the ground), with the springtime peak estimated correctly. However, the observed runoff peaks tend to be smoother than the simulated ones, likely due to the water holding capacity of the catchments and the missing time lag between the catchment and the observation point in the model. For all three sites the model simulates the timing of the snow accumulation and melt events well, but underestimates the total snow depth by 18–20% in Helsinki and 29–33% in Montreal. The model is able to reproduce the diurnal pattern of net radiation and turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat during cold snow, melting snow and snow-free periods. The largest model uncertainties are related to the timing of the melting period and the parameterization of the snowmelt. The results show that the enhanced model can simulate correctly the exchange of energy and water in cold climate cities at sites with varying surface cover.

Integrating risks of climate change into water management

The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change critically reviewed and assessed tens of thousands of recent publications to inform about the assess current scientific knowledge on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. Chapter 3 of the report focuses on freshwater resources, but water issues are also prominent in other sectoral chapters and in the regional chapters of the Working Group II report as well as in various chapters of Working Group I. With this paper, the lead authors, a review editor and the chapter scientist of the freshwater chapter of the WGII AR5 wish to summarize their assessment of the most relevant risks of climate change related to freshwater systems and to show how assessment and reduction of those risks can be integrated into water management.

Imbalanced land-surface water budgets in a numerical weather prediction system

There has been a significant increase in the skill and resolution of numerical weather prediction models (NWPs) in recent decades, extending the time scales of useful weather predictions. The land-surface models (LSMs) of NWPs are often employed in hydrological applications, which raises the question of how hydrologically representative LSMs really are. In this paper, precipitation (P), evaporation (E) and runoff (R) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global models were evaluated against observational products. The forecasts differ substantially from observed data for key hydrological variables. In addition, imbalanced surface water budgets, mostly caused by data assimilation, were found on both global (P-E) and basin scales (P-E-R), with the latter being more important. Modeled surface fluxes should be used with care in hydrological applications and further improvement in LSMs in terms of process descriptions, resolution and estimation of uncertainties is needed to accurately describe the land-surface water budgets.

The land-atmosphere water flux in the tropics

Tropical vegetation is a major source of global land surface evapotranspiration, and can thus play a major role in global hydrological cycles and global atmospheric circulation. Accurate prediction of tropical evapotranspiration is critical to our understanding of these processes under changing climate. We examined the controls on evapotranspiration in tropical vegetation at 21 pan-tropical eddy covariance sites, conducted a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of 13 evapotranspiration models at these sites, and assessed the ability to scale up model estimates of evapotranspiration for the test region of Amazonia. Net radiation was the strongest determinant of evapotranspiration (mean evaporative fraction was 0.72) and explained 87% of the variance in monthly evapotranspiration across the sites. Vapor pressure deficit was the strongest residual predictor (14%), followed by normalized difference vegetation index (9%), precipitation (6%) and wind speed (4%). The radiation-based evapotranspiration models performed best overall for three reasons: (1) the vegetation was largely decoupled from atmospheric turbulent transfer (calculated from X decoupling factor), especially at the wetter sites; (2) the resistance-based models were hindered by difficulty in consistently characterizing canopy (and stomatal) resistance in the highly diverse vegetation; (3) the temperature-based models inadequately captured the variability in tropical evapotranspiration. We evaluated the potential to predict regional evapotranspiration for one test region: Amazonia. We estimated an Amazonia-wide evapotranspiration of 1370 mm yr(-1), but this value is dependent on assumptions about energy balance closure for the tropical eddy covariance sites; a lower value (1096 mm yr(-1)) is considered in discussion on the use of flux data to validate and interpolate models.

Colony dehydration and water collection by specialized caste in the leaf-cutting ant Atta sexdens rubropilosa

Social organization enables leaf-cutting ants to keep appropriate micro-ecological nest conditions for the fungus garden (their main food), eggs, larvae and adults. To maintain stability while facing changing conditions, individual ants must perceive destabilising factors and produce a proper behavioral response. We investigated behavioral responses to experimental dehydration in leaf-cutting ants to verify if task specialization exists, and to quantify the ability of ant sub-colonies for water management. Our setup consisted of fourteen sub-colonies, ten of which were randomly assigned to different levels of experimental dehydration with silica gel, whereas the remaining four were controls. The ten experimental sub-colonies were split into two groups, so that five of them had access to water. Diverse ant morphs searched for water in dehydrated colonies, but mainly a caste of small ants collected water after sources had been discovered. Size specialization for water collection was replicable in shorter experiments with three additional colonies. Ants of dehydrated colonies accumulated leaf-fragments on the nest entrance, and covering the fungus garden. Behaviors that may enhance humidity within the nests were common to all dehydration treatments. Water availability increased the life span of dehydrated colonies.

Volunteered Geographic Information For Water Management: A Prototype Architecture

Driven by Web 2.0 technology and the almost ubiquitous presence of mobile devices, Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) is knowing an unprecedented growth. These notable technological advancements have opened fruitful perspectives also in the field of water management and protection, raising the demand for a reconsideration of policies which also takes into account the emerging trend of VGI. This research investigates the opportunity of leveraging such technology to involve citizens equipped with common mobile devices (e.g. tablets and smartphones) in a campaign of report of water-related phenomena. The work is carried out in collaboration with ADBPO - Autorità di bacino del fiume Po (Po river basin Authority), i.e. the entity responsible for the environmental planning and protection of the basin of river Po. This is the longest Italian river, spreading over eight among the twenty Italian Regions and characterized by complex environmental issues. To enrich ADBPO official database with user-generated contents, a FOSS (Free and Open Source Software) architecture was designed which allows not only user field-data collection, but also data Web publication through standard protocols. Open Data Kit suite allows users to collect georeferenced multimedia information using mobile devices equipped with location sensors (e.g. the GPS). Users can report a number of environmental emergencies, problems or simple points of interest related to the Po river basin, taking pictures of them and providing other contextual information. Field-registered data is sent to a server and stored into a PostgreSQL database with PostGIS spatial extension. GeoServer provides then data dissemination on the Web, while specific OpenLayers-based viewers were built to optimize data access on both desktop computers and mobile devices. Besides proving the suitability of FOSS in the frame of VGI, the system represents a successful prototype for the exploitation of user local, real-time information aimed at managing and protecting water resources.

Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for large-scale systems. Nonetheless, a critical obstacle, which needs to be overcome in MPC, is the large computational burden when a large-scale system is considered or a long prediction horizon is involved. In order to solve this problem, we use an adaptive prediction accuracy (APA) approach that can reduce the computational burden almost by half. The proposed MPC scheme with this scheme is tested on the northern Dutch water system, which comprises Lake IJssel, Lake Marker, the River IJssel and the North Sea Canal. The simulation results show that by using the MPC-APA scheme, the computational time can be reduced to a large extent and a flood protection problem over longer prediction horizons can be well solved.

Carbohydrate Composition and Water-Stable Aggregation of an Oxisol as Affected by Crop Sequence under No-Till

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effect of Spray Tips and Mix Deposition on Common Water Hyacinth Growing with Varied Population Arrangements of Salvinia and Water Lettuce

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

WATER ABSORPTION of THE FUR and SWIMMING BEHAVIOR of SEMIAQUATIC and TERRESTRIAL ORYZOMINE RODENTS

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)