Synoptic versus orographic control on stationary convective banding

Quasi-stationary convective bands can cause large localised rainfall accumulations and are often anchored by topographic features. Here, the predictability of and mechanisms causing one such band are determined using ensembles of the Met Office Unified Model at convection-permitting resolution (1.5 km grid length). The band was stationary over the UK for 3 h and produced rainfall accumulations of up to 34 mm. The amount and location of the predicted rainfall was highly variable despite only small differences between the large-scale conditions of the ensemble members. Only three of 21 members of the control ensemble produced a stationary rain band; these three had the weakest upstream winds and hence lowest Froude number. Band formation was due to the superposition of two processes: lee-side convergence resulting from flow around an upstream obstacle and thermally forced convergence resulting from elevated heating over the upstream terrain. Both mechanisms were enhanced when the Froude number was lower. By increasing the terrain height (thus reducing the Froude number), the band became more predictable. An ensemble approach is required to successfully predict the possible occurrence of such quasi-stationary convective events because the rainfall variability is largely modulated by small variations of the large-scale flow. However, high-resolution models are required to accurately resolve the small-scale interactions of the flow with the topography upon which the band formation depends. Thus, although topography provides some predictability, the quasi-stationary convective bands anchored by it are likely to remain a forecasting challenge for many years to come.

The impact of number mismatch and passives on the real-time processing of relative clauses

Language processing plays a crucial role in language development, providing the ability to assign structural representations to input strings (e.g., Fodor, 1998). In this paper we aim at contributing to the study of children's processing routines, examining the operations underlying the auditory processing of relative clauses in children compared to adults. English-speaking children (6–8;11) and adults participated in the study, which employed a self-paced listening task with a final comprehension question. The aim was to determine (i) the role of number agreement in object relative clauses in which the subject and object NPs differ in terms of number properties, and (ii) the role of verb morphology (active vs. passive) in subject relative clauses. Even though children's off-line accuracy was not always comparable to that of adults, analyses of reaction times results support the view that children have the same structural processing reflexes observed in adults.

Can reanalyses represent extreme precipitation over England and Wales?

A new generation of reanalysis products is currently being produced that provides global gridded atmospheric data spanning more than a century. Such data may be useful for characterising the observed long-term variability of extreme precipitation events, particularly in regions where spatial coverage of surface observations is limited, and in the pre-satellite era. An analysis of extreme precipitation events is performed over England and Wales, investigating the ability of Twentieth Century Reanalysis and ERA-Interim to represent extreme precipitation accumulations as recorded in the England and Wales Precipitation dataset on accumulation time-scales from 1 to 7 days. Significant correlations are found between daily precipitation accumulation observations and both reanalysis products. A hit-rate analysis indicates that the reanalyses have hit rates (as defined by an event above the 98th percentile) of approximately 40–65% for extreme events in both summer (JJA) and winter (DJF). This suggests that both ERA-Interim and Twentieth Century Reanalysis are difficult to use for representing individual extreme precipitation events over England and Wales.

Evaluation of boundary-layer type in a weather forecast model utilising long-term Doppler lidar observations

Many studies evaluating model boundary-layer schemes focus either on near-surface parameters or on short-term observational campaigns. This reflects the observational datasets that are widely available for use in model evaluation. In this paper we show how surface and long-term Doppler lidar observations, combined in a way to match model representation of the boundary layer as closely as possible, can be used to evaluate the skill of boundary-layer forecasts. We use a 2-year observational dataset from a rural site in the UK to evaluate a climatology of boundary layer type forecast by the UK Met Office Unified Model. In addition, we demonstrate the use of a binary skill score (Symmetric Extremal Dependence Index) to investigate the dependence of forecast skill on season, horizontal resolution and forecast leadtime. A clear diurnal and seasonal cycle can be seen in the climatology of both the model and observations, with the main discrepancies being the model overpredicting cumulus capped and decoupled stratocumulus capped boundary-layers and underpredicting well mixed boundary-layers. Using the SEDI skill score the model is most skillful at predicting the surface stability. The skill of the model in predicting cumulus capped and stratocumulus capped stable boundary layer forecasts is low but greater than a 24 hr persistence forecast. In contrast, the prediction of decoupled boundary-layers and boundary-layers with multiple cloud layers is lower than persistence. This process based evaluation approach has the potential to be applied to other boundary-layer parameterisation schemes with similar decision structures.

Unpaid work and conformity: why care?

We study the supply of unpaid eldercare (in particular caring for parents) in the UK, focusing on both the division of care and caring tasks by gender and the effect of conformity to social norms in relation to caring. We then investigate the effect of the amount of care on the well-being of caregivers and whether agreeing with the care norm enhances their well-being. Our results suggest that the eldercare reform neglects important aspects underlying the distribution of care hours and care tasks between caregivers and may potentially worsen intrahousehold inequality in earnings and well-being, in particular, between men and women.

Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts

Simulation models are widely employed to make probability forecasts of future conditions on seasonal to annual lead times. Added value in such forecasts is reflected in the information they add, either to purely empirical statistical models or to simpler simulation models. An evaluation of seasonal probability forecasts from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction (DEMETER) and ENSEMBLES multi-model ensemble experiments is presented. Two particular regions are considered: Nino3.4 in the Pacific and the Main Development Region in the Atlantic; these regions were chosen before any spatial distribution of skill was examined. The ENSEMBLES models are found to have skill against the climatological distribution on seasonal time-scales. For models in ENSEMBLES that have a clearly defined predecessor model in DEMETER, the improvement from DEMETER to ENSEMBLES is discussed. Due to the long lead times of the forecasts and the evolution of observation technology, the forecast-outcome archive for seasonal forecast evaluation is small; arguably, evaluation data for seasonal forecasting will always be precious. Issues of information contamination from in-sample evaluation are discussed and impacts (both positive and negative) of variations in cross-validation protocol are demonstrated. Other difficulties due to the small forecast-outcome archive are identified. The claim that the multi-model ensemble provides a ‘better’ probability forecast than the best single model is examined and challenged. Significant forecast information beyond the climatological distribution is also demonstrated in a persistence probability forecast. The ENSEMBLES probability forecasts add significantly more information to empirical probability forecasts on seasonal time-scales than on decadal scales. Current operational forecasts might be enhanced by melding information from both simulation models and empirical models. Simulation models based on physical principles are sometimes expected, in principle, to outperform empirical models; direct comparison of their forecast skill provides information on progress toward that goal.

Potential vorticity in warm conveyor belt outflow

Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are the main ascending air masses within extratropical cyclones. They often exhibit strong condensation and precipitation, associated with ascent on large scales or embedded convection. Most of the air outflows into the upper troposphere as part of a ridge. Such ridges are an integral part of Rossby waves propagating along the tropopause and are identified with a negative potential vorticity (PV) anomaly and associated anticyclonic circulation. It has been argued that diabatic modification of PV in WCBs has an important influence on the extent of the ridge, propagation of Rossby waves and weather impacts downstream. Following the coherent ensemble of trajectories defining a WCB, PV is expected to increase with time while below the level of maximum latent heating and then decrease as trajectories ascend above the heating maximum. In models, it is found that the net change is approximately zero, so that the average PV of the WCB outflow is almost equal to the PV of its inflow. Here, the conditions necessary for this evolution are explored analytically using constraints arising from the conservation of circulation. It is argued that the net PV change is insensitive to the details of diabatic processes and the PV maximum midway along a WCB depends primarily on the net diabatic transport of mass from the inflow to the outflow layer. The main effect of diabatic processes within a WCB is to raise the isentropic level of the outflow, rather than to modify PV.

Resolution and discrimination - two sides of the same coin

The notions of resolution and discrimination of probability forecasts are revisited. It is argued that the common concept underlying both resolution and discrimination is the dependence (in the sense of probability theory) of forecasts and observations. More specifically, a forecast has no resolution if and only if it has no discrimination if and only if forecast and observation are stochastically independent. A statistical tests for independence is thus also a test for no resolution and, at the same time, for no discrimination. The resolution term in the decomposition of the logarithmic scoring rule, and the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic will be investigated in this light.

Lojas físicas e virtuais: diferenças no composto varejista em organizações que operam simultaneamente os dois canais no mercado brasileiro

Dissertação apresentada ao Programa de Pós-Graduação em Administração da Universidade Municipal de São Caetano do Sul como requisito para a obtenção do título de Mestre em Administração

Gestão do conhecimento em ambientes de teletrabalho

O presente estudo buscou verificar se há diferenças significativas na utilização de práticas e ferramentas voltadas à gestão do conhecimento, na opinião de trabalhadores presenciais e de teletrabalhadores. Para tanto, este estudo descritivo-quantitativo aplicou um questionário a 319 colaboradores, sendo 180 trabalhadores presenciais e 139 teletrabalhadores, todos atuantes em quinze empresas de porte médio ou grande da indústria de software no Brasil. Os resultados encontrados indicam que os teletrabalhadores pesquisados atestaram maior utilização de práticas e de ferramentas voltadas à gestão do conhecimento em suas rotinas de trabalho, em comparação aos trabalhadores presenciais analisados na pesquisa.

Utilização de inteligência artificial (redes neurais artificiais) no gerenciamento de reprodutoras pesadas.

Uma atividade com a magnitude da avicultura, que usa equipamentos de última geração e serviços atualizados, é levada, na maioria dos casos, a tomar decisões que envolvem todos aspectos de produção, apoiada em critérios subjetivos. A presente tese objetivou estudar a utilização das redes neurais artificiais na estimação dos parâmetros de desempenho de matrizes pesadas, pertencentes a uma integração avícola sul-brasileira. Foram utilizados os registros de 11 lotes em recria, do período compreendido entre 09/11/97 a 10/01/99 e de 21 lotes em produção, do período compreendido entre 26/04/98 a 19/12/99, para a análise por redes neurais artificiais. Os dados utilizados corresponderam a 273 linhas de registros semanais, do período de recria e 689 linhas de registros semanais, do período de produção. Os modelos de redes neurais foram comparados e selecionados como melhores, baseados no coeficiente de determinação múltipla (R2), Quadrado Médio do Erro (QME), bem como pela análise de gráficos, plotando a predição da rede versus a predição menos o real (resíduo). Com esta tese foi possível explicar os parâmetros de desempenho de matrizes pesadas, através da utilização de redes neurais artificiais. A técnica permite a tomada de decisões por parte do corpo técnico, baseadas em critérios objetivos obtidos cientificamente. Além disso, este método permite simulações das conseqüências de tais decisões e fornece a percentagem de contribuição de cada variável no fenômeno em estudo.