The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study

In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.

Modelización Gravimétrica 3D del diapiro de Cardona, Cuenca del Ebro (NE de España)

En este trabajo se presentan los resultados derivados de la interpretacón de 320 estaciones gravimétricas realizadas sobre el diapiro de Cardona con el objetivo de obtener información sobre su geometría tridimensional. Para obtener una distribución tridimensional de la masa salina que explique las anomalías observadas se ha aplicado un método iterativo de ajustes sucesivos basado en un algoritmo de inversión automática. Esta metodología ha mostrado ser muy rápida, fácil de usar y con suficiente poder de resolución para perfilar no sólo la geometría del cuerpo salino, sino también la de estructuras similares. El diapiro salino de Cardona presenta un mínimo gravimétrico relacionado con el anticlinal de Pins-Cardona que se prolonga hacia el SW. El análisis cualitativo de la anomalía residual permite apreciar que el diapiro muestra una cierta vergencia hacia sur con un flanco sureste subvertical y un flanco noroeste con pendientes más suaves.

Free-breathing 3D coronary MRA: the impact of "isotropic" image resolution.

During conventional x-ray coronary angiography, multiple projections of the coronary arteries are acquired to define coronary anatomy precisely. Due to time constraints, coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) usually provides only one or two views of the major coronary vessels. A coronary MRA approach that allowed for reconstruction of arbitrary isotropic orientations might therefore be desirable. The purpose of the study was to develop a three-dimensional (3D) coronary MRA technique with isotropic image resolution in a relatively short scanning time that allows for reconstruction of arbitrary views of the coronary arteries without constraints given by anisotropic voxel size. Eight healthy adult subjects were examined using a real-time navigator-gated and corrected free-breathing interleaved echoplanar (TFE-EPI) 3D-MRA sequence. Two 3D datasets were acquired for the left and right coronary systems in each subject, one with anisotropic (1.0 x 1.5 x 3.0 mm, 10 slices) and one with "near" isotropic (1.0 x 1.5 x 1.0 mm, 30 slices) image resolution. All other imaging parameters were maintained. In all cases, the entire left main (LM) and extensive portions of the left anterior descending (LAD) and the right coronary artery (RCA) were visualized. Objective assessment of coronary vessel sharpness was similar (41% +/- 5% vs. 42% +/- 5%; P = NS) between in-plane and through-plane views with "isotropic" voxel size but differed (32% +/- 7% vs. 23% +/- 4%; P < 0.001) with nonisotropic voxel size. In reconstructed views oriented in the through-plane direction, the vessel border was 86% more defined (P < 0.01) for isotropic compared with anisotropic images. A smaller (30%; P < 0.001) improvement was seen for in-plane reconstructions. Vessel diameter measurements were view independent (2.81 +/- 0.45 mm vs. 2.66 +/- 0.52 mm; P = NS) for isotropic, but differed (2.71 +/- 0.51 mm vs. 3.30 +/- 0.38 mm; P < 0.001) between anisotropic views. Average scanning time was 2:31 +/- 0:57 minutes for anisotropic and 7:11 +/- 3:02 minutes for isotropic image resolution (P < 0.001). We present a new approach for "near" isotropic 3D coronary artery imaging, which allows for reconstruction of arbitrary views of the coronary arteries. The good delineation of the coronary arteries in all views suggests that isotropic 3D coronary MRA might be a preferred technique for the assessment of coronary disease, although at the expense of prolonged scan times. Comparative studies with conventional x-ray angiography are needed to investigate the clinical utility of the isotropic strategy.

Test result-based sampling: an efficient design for estimating the accuracy of patient safety indicators.

OBJECTIVE: Accuracy studies of Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) are critical but limited by the large samples required due to low occurrence of most events. We tested a sampling design based on test results (verification-biased sampling [VBS]) that minimizes the number of subjects to be verified. METHODS: We considered 3 real PSIs, whose rates were calculated using 3 years of discharge data from a university hospital and a hypothetical screen of very rare events. Sample size estimates, based on the expected sensitivity and precision, were compared across 4 study designs: random and VBS, with and without constraints on the size of the population to be screened. RESULTS: Over sensitivities ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 and PSI prevalence levels ranging from 0.02 to 0.2, the optimal VBS strategy makes it possible to reduce sample size by up to 60% in comparison with simple random sampling. For PSI prevalence levels below 1%, the minimal sample size required was still over 5000. CONCLUSIONS: Verification-biased sampling permits substantial savings in the required sample size for PSI validation studies. However, sample sizes still need to be very large for many of the rarer PSIs.

From protein sequences to 3D-structures and beyond: the example of the UniProt knowledgebase.

With the dramatic increase in the volume of experimental results in every domain of life sciences, assembling pertinent data and combining information from different fields has become a challenge. Information is dispersed over numerous specialized databases and is presented in many different formats. Rapid access to experiment-based information about well-characterized proteins helps predict the function of uncharacterized proteins identified by large-scale sequencing. In this context, universal knowledgebases play essential roles in providing access to data from complementary types of experiments and serving as hubs with cross-references to many specialized databases. This review outlines how the value of experimental data is optimized by combining high-quality protein sequences with complementary experimental results, including information derived from protein 3D-structures, using as an example the UniProt knowledgebase (UniProtKB) and the tools and links provided on its website ( http://www.uniprot.org/ ). It also evokes precautions that are necessary for successful predictions and extrapolations.

Model-based Segmentation and Image Fusion of 3D Computed Tomography and 3D Ultrasound of the Eye for Radiotherapy Planning

For radiotherapy treatment planning of retinoblastoma inchildhood, Computed Tomography (CT) represents thestandard method for tumor volume delineation, despitesome inherent limitations. CT scan is very useful inproviding information on physical density for dosecalculation and morphological volumetric information butpresents a low sensitivity in assessing the tumorviability. On the other hand, 3D ultrasound (US) allows ahigh accurate definition of the tumor volume thanks toits high spatial resolution but it is not currentlyintegrated in the treatment planning but used only fordiagnosis and follow-up. Our ultimate goal is anautomatic segmentation of gross tumor volume (GTV) in the3D US, the segmentation of the organs at risk (OAR) inthe CT and the registration of both. In this paper, wepresent some preliminary results in this direction. Wepresent 3D active contour-based segmentation of the eyeball and the lens in CT images; the presented approachincorporates the prior knowledge of the anatomy by usinga 3D geometrical eye model. The automated segmentationresults are validated by comparing with manualsegmentations. Then, for the fusion of 3D CT and USimages, we present two approaches: (i) landmark-basedtransformation, and (ii) object-based transformation thatmakes use of eye ball contour information on CT and USimages.

Direct three-dimensional myocardial strain tensor quantification and tracking using zHARP.

Images of myocardial strain can be used to diagnose heart disease, plan and monitor treatment, and to learn about cardiac structure and function. Three-dimensional (3D) strain is typically quantified using many magnetic resonance (MR) images obtained in two or three orthogonal planes. Problems with this approach include long scan times, image misregistration, and through-plane motion. This article presents a novel method for calculating cardiac 3D strain using a stack of two or more images acquired in only one orientation. The zHARP pulse sequence encodes in-plane motion using MR tagging and out-of-plane motion using phase encoding, and has been previously shown to be capable of computing 3D displacement within a single image plane. Here, data from two adjacent image planes are combined to yield a 3D strain tensor at each pixel; stacks of zHARP images can be used to derive stacked arrays of 3D strain tensors without imaging multiple orientations and without numerical interpolation. The performance and accuracy of the method is demonstrated in vitro on a phantom and in vivo in four healthy adult human subjects.

Radiographic total disc replacement angle measurement accuracy using the Oxford Cobbometer: precision and bias.

Total disc replacement (TDR) clinical success has been reported to be related to the residual motion of the operated level. Thus, accurate measurement of TDR range of motion (ROM) is of utmost importance. One commonly used tool in measuring ROM is the Oxford Cobbometer. Little is known however on its accuracy (precision and bias) in measuring TDR angles. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of the Cobbometer to accurately measure radiographic TDR angles. An anatomically accurate synthetic L4-L5 motion segment was instrumented with a CHARITE artificial disc. The TDR angle and anatomical position between L4 and L5 was fixed to prohibit motion while the motion segment was radiographically imaged in various degrees of rotation and elevation, representing a sample of possible patient placement positions. An experienced observer made ten readings of the TDR angle using the Cobbometer at each different position. The Cobbometer readings were analyzed to determine measurement accuracy at each position. Furthermore, analysis of variance was used to study rotation and elevation of the motion segment as treatment factors. Cobbometer TDR angle measurements were most accurate (highest precision and lowest bias) at the centered position (95.5%), which placed the TDR directly inline with the x-ray beam source without any rotation. In contrast, the lowest accuracy (75.2%) was observed in the most rotated and off-centered view. A difference as high as 4 degrees between readings at any individual position, and as high as 6 degrees between all the positions was observed. Furthermore, the Cobbometer was unable to detect the expected trend in TDR angle projection with changing position. Although the Cobbometer has been reported to be reliable in different clinical applications, it lacks the needed accuracy to measure TDR angles and ROM. More accurate ROM measurement methods need to be developed to help surgeons and researchers assess radiological success of TDRs.

Navigator-gated free-breathing 3D balanced FFE projection renal MRA: Comparison with contrast-enhanced breath-hold 3D MRA in a swine model.

A cardiac-triggered, free-breathing, 3D balanced FFE projection renal MR angiography (MRA) technique with a 2D pencil beam aortic labeling pulse for selective aortic spin tagging was developed. For respiratory motion artifact suppression during free breathing, a prospective real-time navigator was implemented for renal MRA. Images obtained with the new approach were compared with standard contrast-enhanced (CE) 3D breath-hold MRA in seven swine. Signal properties and vessel visualization were analyzed. With the presented technique, high-resolution, high-contrast renal projection MRA with superior vessel length visualization (including a greater visible number of distal branches of the renal arteries) compared to standard breath-hold CE-MRA was obtained. The present results warrant clinical studies in patients with renal artery disease.

Quantifying Accuracy Improvement in Sets of Pooled Judgments: Does Dialectical Bootstrapping Work?

Galton (1907) first demonstrated the "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon by averaging independent estimates of unknown quantities given by many individuals. Herzog and Hertwig (2009; hereafter H&H in Psychological Science) showed that individuals' own estimates can be improved by asking them to make two estimates at separate times and averaging them. H&H claimed to observe far greater improvement in accuracy when participants received "dialectical" instructions to consider why their first estimate might be wrong before making their second estimates than when they received standard instructions. We reanalyzed H&H's data using measures of accuracy that are unrelated to the frequency of identical first and second responses and found that participants in both conditions improved their accuracy to an equal degree.

Accuracy and predictability in use of AO three-dimensionally preformed titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital reconstruction: a pilot study.

The aim of this study was to prospectively evaluate the accuracy and predictability of new three-dimensionally preformed AO titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction.We analyzed the preoperative and postoperative clinical and radiologic data of 10 patients with isolated blow-out orbital fractures. Fracture locations were as follows: floor (N = 7; 70%), medial wall (N = 1; 1%), and floor/medial wall (N = 2; 2%). The floor fractures were exposed by a standard transconjunctival approach, whereas a combined transcaruncular transconjunctival approach was used in patients with medial wall fractures. A three-dimensional preformed AO titanium mesh plate (0.4 mm in thickness) was selected according to the size of the defect previously measured on the preoperative computed tomographic (CT) scan examination and fixed at the inferior orbital rim with 1 or 2 screws. The accuracy of plate positioning of the reconstructed orbit was assessed on the postoperative CT scan. Coronal CT scan slices were used to measure bony orbital volume using OsiriX Medical Image software. Reconstructed versus uninjured orbital volume were statistically correlated.Nine patients (90%) had a successful treatment outcome without complications. One patient (10%) developed a mechanical limitation of upward gaze with a resulting handicapping diplopia requiring hardware removal. Postoperative orbital CT scan showed an anatomic three-dimensional placement of the orbital mesh plates in all of the patients. Volume data of the reconstructed orbit fitted that of the contralateral uninjured orbit with accuracy to within 2.5 cm(3). There was no significant difference in volume between the reconstructed and uninjured orbits.This preliminary study has demonstrated that three-dimensionally preformed AO titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction results in (1) a high rate of success with an acceptable rate of major clinical complications (10%) and (2) an anatomic restoration of the bony orbital contour and volume that closely approximates that of the contralateral uninjured orbit.

Comparison of fat suppression strategies in 3D spiral coronary magnetic resonance angiography.

PURPOSE: In the present study, the impact of the two different fat suppression techniques was investigated for free breathing 3D spiral coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA). As the coronary arteries are embedded in epicardial fat and are adjacent to myocardial tissue, magnetization preparation such as T(2)-preparation and fat suppression is essential for coronary discrimination. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fat-signal suppression in three-dimensional (3D) thin- slab coronary MRA based on a spiral k-space data acquisition can either be achieved by signal pre-saturation using a spectrally selective inversion recovery pre-pulse or by spectral-spatial excitation. In the present study, the performance of the two different approaches was studied in healthy subjects. RESULTS: No significant objective or subjective difference was found between the two fat suppression approaches. CONCLUSION: Spectral pre-saturation seems preferred for coronary MRA applications due to the ease of implementation and the shorter cardiac acquisition window.