Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reduction of arsenic uptake by lettuce with ferrous sulfate applied to contaminated soil

Soil contamination by arsenic (As) presents a hazard in many countries and there is a need for techniques to minimize As uptake by plants. A proposed in situ remediation method was tested by growing lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. cv. Kermit) in a greenhouse pot experiment on soil that contained 577 mg As kg(-1), taken from a former As smelter site. All combinations of iron (Fe) oxides, at concentrations of 0.00, 0.22, 0.54, and 1.09% (w/w), and lime, at concentrations of 0.00, 0.27, 0.68, and 1.36% (w/w), were tested in a factorial design. To create the treatments, field-moist soil, commercial-grade FeSO4, and ground agricultural lime were mixed and stored for one week, allowing Fe oxides to precipitate. Iron oxides gave highly significant (P < 0.001) reductions in lettuce As concentrations, down to 11% of the lettuce As concentration for untreated soil. For the Fe oxides and lime treatment combinations where soil pH was maintained nearly constant, the lettuce As concentration declined in an exponential relationship with increasing FeSO4 application rate and lettuce yield was almost unchanged. Iron oxides applied at a concentration of 1.09% did not give significantly lower lettuce As concentrations than the 0.54% treatment. Simultaneous addition of lime with FeSO4 was essential. Ferrous sulfate with insufficient lime lowered soil pH and caused mobilization of Al, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Pb, Sr, and Zn. At the highest Fe oxide to lime ratios, Mn toxicity caused severe yield loss.

The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track. Part I: land-sea contrast and orography

Understanding and predicting changes in storm tracks over longer time scales is a challenging problem, particularly in the North Atlantic. This is due in part to the complex range of forcings (land–sea contrast, orography, sea surface temperatures, etc.) that combine to produce the structure of the storm track. The impact of land–sea contrast and midlatitude orography on the North Atlantic storm track is investigated through a hierarchy of GCM simulations using idealized and “semirealistic” boundary conditions in a high-resolution version of the Hadley Centre atmosphere model (HadAM3). This framework captures the large-scale essence of features such as the North and South American continents, Eurasia, and the Rocky Mountains, enabling the results to be applied more directly to realistic modeling situations than was possible with previous idealized studies. The physical processes by which the forcing mechanisms impact the large-scale flow and the midlatitude storm tracks are discussed. The characteristics of the North American continent are found to be very important in generating the structure of the North Atlantic storm track. In particular, the southwest–northeast tilt in the upper tropospheric jet produced by southward deflection of the westerly flow incident on the Rocky Mountains leads to enhanced storm development along an axis close to that of the continent’s eastern coastline. The approximately triangular shape of North America also enables a cold pool of air to develop in the northeast, intensifying the surface temperature contrast across the eastern coastline, consistent with further enhancements of baroclinicity and storm growth along the same axis.

When smoke gets in our eyes: The multiple impacts of atmospheric black carbon on climate, air quality and health

With both climate change and air quality on political and social agendas from local to global scale, the links between these hitherto separate fields are becoming more apparent. Black carbon, largely from combustion processes, scatters and absorbs incoming solar radiation, contributes to poor air quality and induces respiratory and cardiovascular problems. Uncertainties in the amount, location, size and shape of atmospheric black carbon cause large uncertainty in both climate change estimates and toxicology studies alike. Increased research has led to new effects and areas of uncertainty being uncovered. Here we draw together recent results and explore the increasing opportunities for synergistic research that will lead to improved confidence in the impact of black carbon on climate change, air quality and human health. Topics of mutual interest include better information on spatial distribution, size, mixing state and measuring and monitoring. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of restricted water availability and increased temperature on the grain filling, drying and quality of winter wheat

Experiments in controlled environments examined the effects of the timing and severity of drought, and increased temperature, on grain development of Hereward winter wheat. Environmental effects on grain specific weight, protein content, Hagberg Falling Number, SDS-sedimentation volume, and sulphur content were also studied. Drought and increased temperature applied before the end of grain filling shortened the grain filling period and reduced grain yield, mean grain weight and specific weight. Grain filling was most severely affected by drought between days 1-14 after anthesis. Protein content was increased by stresses before the end of grain growth, because nitrogen harvest index was less severely affected than was dry matter harvest index. Hagberg Falling Number was increased to the greatest extent by stresses applied 15-28 days after anthesis. Treatment effects on grain sulphur content were similar to those on protein content, such that N:S ratio was not significantly affected by drought nor temperature stresses. The effects of restricted water on grain yield and quality were linearly related to soil moisture between 44 and about 73% field capacity (FC) from days 15-28. Drought stress (but not temperature stress) before the end of grain filling decreased SDS-sedimentation volume relative to drought applied later. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of triazole and strobilurin fungicide programmes, with and without late-season nitrogen fertiliser, on the baking quality of Malacca winter wheat

Field experiments were conducted over 3 years to study the effect of applying triazole and strobilurin fungicides on the bread-making quality of Malacca winter wheat. Averaged over all years the application of a fungicide programme increased yields, particularly when strobilurin fungicides were applied. Reductions in protein concentration, sulphur concentration, Hageberg failing number and loaf volumes also occurred as the amount of fungicide applied increased. However, there were no deleterious effects of fungicide application on sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS) sedimentation volumes, N:S ratios or dough theology. Effects of fungicide application on bread-making quality were not product specific. Therefore, it appears that new mechanisms to explain strobilurin effects on bread-making quality do not need to be invoked. Where reductions in protein concentration did occur they could be compensated for by a late-season application of nitrogen either as granular ammonium nitrate at flag leaf emergence or foliar urea at anthesis. These applications, however, sometimes increased the N:S ratio of the extracted flour and failed to improve loaf volume. Multiple regression analysis revealed that main effects of year, flour protein concentration and N:S ratio could explain 93% of the variance in loaf volume caused by season, fungicide and nitrogen treatments. However, an equally good fit was achieved by just including sulphur concentration with year. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of adding picoxystrobin, azoxystrobin and nitrogen to a triazole programme on disease control, flag leaf senescence, yield and grain quality of winter wheat

The effect of adding strobilurins to a triazole (epoxiconazole) fungicide programme on the quality of a range of wheat cultivars was assessed in field experiments in three successive years. Strobilurin was applied at just flag leaf emergence (azoxystrobin) or at the start of stem extension (azoxystrobin or picoxystrobin) and again at flag leaf emergence or at flag leaf emergence and again at ear emergence (azoxystrobin). All strobilurin treatments reduced disease levels, delayed senescence of the flag leaf and consistently increased yields, thousand grain weight and specific weight. Reductions in Hagberg falling number were observed, even by fungicide applications at the start of stem extension, but effects were small compared to the variation among cultivars. Application of fungicide (triazole or strobilurin) before ear emergence increased the amount of blackpoint, but this was partly countered by applying azoxystrobin at ear emergence. The effect of fungicide on protein concentration differed over seasons and cultivar. Where they occurred. small reductions in protein concentration could be compensated for by extra application of nitrogen as foliar urea at anthesis. Foliar urea (40 kg N ha(-1)) applied at anthesis also improved Hagberg failing number and reduced blackpoint in one of the growing seasons. In one season, the effect of foliar urea at anthesis was compared with applications of granular fertiliser at flag leaf emergence. The granular treatment produced grain with more concentrated protein, while the later, foliar application produced higher specific weights. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel transcriptomic approach to identify candidate genes for grain quality traits in wheat

A novel methodology is described in which transcriptomics is combined with the measurement of bread-making quality and other agronomic traits for wheat genotypes grown in different environments (wet and cool or hot and dry conditions) to identify transcripts associated with these traits. Seven doubled haploid lines from the Spark x Rialto mapping population were selected to be matched for development and known alleles affecting quality. These were grown in polytunnels with different environments applied 14 days post-anthesis, and the whole experiment was repeated over 2 years. Transcriptomics using the wheat Affymetrix chip was carried out on whole caryopsis samples at two stages during grain filling. Transcript abundance was correlated with the traits for approximately 400 transcripts. About 30 of these were selected as being of most interest, and markers were derived from them and mapped using the population. Expression was identified as being under cis control for 11 of these and under trans control for 18. These transcripts are candidates for involvement in the biological processes which underlie genotypic variation in these traits.

Growth and flowering of petunia and impatiens: effects of competition and reduced water content within a container

The primary objective of this research was to determine how the presence of more than one plant and more than one species in a container influence plant quality, particularly when the volume of water given to the container is reduced. Petunia xhybrida 'Hurrah White' and Impatiens 'Cajun Violet' were chosen as typical bedding plant species. Plants were grown in 2 1 containers either under "100% ETp" (i.e., replacing all the water lost by evapotranspiration in the previous 24 h) or under a moisture-restrictive regime of "25% ETp," in which plants received 25% of the "100% ETp" value. An ancillary experiment investigated whether low watering resulted in floral buds being aborted. Results demonstrated that watering requirements of Petunia under "100% ETp" (i.e., replacing all the water lost by evapotranspiration in the previous 24 h) were on average 30% greater than those of Impatiens. However, when two Petunia plants were growing in the same container, the volume of water required to maintain soil moisture content at container capacity was on average only 10% greater than for a single plant. Under a "25% ETp" regime in which plants received 25% of the "100% ETp" value, flower number, plant height, and flower size were reduced by 50%,33%, and 13%,respectively,in Petunia compared with "100% ETp." For example, flower numbers decreased from an average of 71 to 33 flowers per plant in "100% ETp" and "25% ETp," respectively. Petunia plants in the "25% ETp" regime, however, were more efficient at producing both biomass and flowers in relation to the volume of water applied. Petunia plants that experienced both competition from other plants in the container and lower irrigation rates had enhanced efficiency of flower production (i.e., more flowers per unit biomass). For Impatiens, however, the growing of single plants at "25% ETp" was plausible, but the addition of a Petunia plant at "25% ETp" was detrimental to plant quality (Impatiens flower numbers reduced by 75%).