Fish data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has been sampling plankton in the North Sea since 1931. However the identification of the larval and juvenile fish taken in the survey has not been a part of the routine analysis of the samples. Specialist analysis of the fish was carried out between 1948 and the early 1980s but the data were available as hard copy only. As part of MarBEF, data on >60 taxa from 1948 to 1972 have been entered on a database which is now linked to EUROBIS to show the biogeographical information and the data are available for general research. Examples of the data are shown. These data provide a background on the variability of fish stocks before the recent period of rapid warming and in some cases before significant fisheries developed. Data for subsequent years will be made available as possible and work is now underway to bring the analysis up to date. This will provide time series over six decades.

Climate-induced changes in the North Sea Decapoda over the last 60 years

In the mid-1980s the North Sea ecosystem experienced a climate-induced regime shift that has favoured decapods and detritivores in the benthos and jellyfish in the plankton over commercial fisheries. Here, we investigate changes among the Decapoda in the North Sea plankton over the last 60 yr. Decapods are important predators in the plankton and the benthos where they can influence productivity and structure communities. In the North Sea it has been suggested that a climate-driven increase in decapod abundance has been important in propagating the climate signal through the North Sea food web. We show that climate-induced changes in the Decapoda in the central and southern North Sea include the presence of new warm-water taxa, changes in the abundance and proportions of commercial species of shrimp, and an earlier occurrence of decapod larvae in the plankton compared with the period 1981–1983. Notable amongst the warm-water taxa appearing in the North Sea is the predatory swimming crab Polybius henslowii that can swarm in large numbers when conditions are favourable and that is known to exhibit range shifts in response to fluctuations in hydroclimatic forcing. We suggest that climate-induced changes among North Sea decapods have played an important role in the trophic amplification of a climate signal and the development of the new North Sea dynamic regime. Understanding these changes is likely to be imperative for a successful ecosystem-based approach to the future management of North Sea fisheries at a time of climate change.

Effects of environmental conditions on the seasonal distribution of phytoplankton biomass in the North Sea

We study the spatial and seasonal variability of phytoplankton biomass (as phytoplankton color) in relation to the environmental conditions in the North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. By using only environmental fields and location as predictor variables we developed a nonparametric model (generalized additive model) to empirically explore how key environmental factors modulate the spatio-temporal patterns of the seasonal cycle of algal biomass as well as how these relate to the ,1988 North Sea regime shift. Solar radiation, as manifest through changes of sea surface temperature (SST), was a key factor not only in the seasonal cycle but also as a driver of the shift. The pronounced increase in SST and in wind speed after the 1980s resulted in an extension of the season favorable for phytoplankton growth. Nutrients appeared to be unimportant as explanatory variables for the observed spatio-temporal pattern, implying that they were not generally limiting factors. Under the new climatic regime the carrying capacity of the whole system has been increased and the southern North Sea, where the environmental changes have been more pronounced, reached a new maximum.

Non-linearities, regime shifts and recovery: The recent influence of climate on Black Sea chlorophyll

The Black Sea ecosystem experienced severe eutrophication-related degradation during the 1970s and 1980s. However, in recent years the Black Sea has shown some signs of recovery which are often attributed to a reduction in nutrient loading. Here, SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (chl a), a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is used to investigate spatio-temporal patterns in Black Sea phytoplankton dynamics and to explore the potential role of climate in the Black Sea's recovery. Maps of chl a anomalies, calculated relative to the 8 year mean, emphasize spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton biomass in the Black Sea, particularly between the riverine-influenced Northwest Shelf and the open Black Sea. Evolution of phytoplankton biomass has shown significant spatial variability of persistence of optimal bloom conditions between three major regions of the Black Sea. With the exception of 2001, chl a has generally decreased during our 8 year time-series. However, the winter of 2000–2001 was anomalously warm with low wind stress, resulting in reduced vertical mixing of the water column and retention of nutrients in the photic zone. These conditions were associated with anomalously high levels of chl a throughout much of the open Black Sea during the following spring and summer. The unusual climatic conditions occurring in 2001 may have triggered a shift in the Black Sea's chl a regime. The long-term significance of this recent shift is still uncertain but illustrates a non-linear response to climate forcing that makes future ecosystem changes in the pelagic Black Sea ecosystem difficult to predict.

A long-term chlorophyll dataset reveals regime shift in North Sea phytoplankton biomass unconnected to nutrient levels

During the 1980s, a rapid increase in the Phytoplankton Colour Index (PCI), a semiquantitative visual estimate of algal biomass, was observed in the North Sea as part of a regionwide regime shift. Two new data sets created from the relationship between the PCI and SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (Chl a) quantify differences in the previous and current regimes for both the anthropogenically affected coastal North Sea and the comparatively unaffected open North Sea. The new regime maintains a 13% higher Chl a concentration in the open North Sea and a 21% higher concentration in coastal North Sea waters. However, the current regime has lower total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations than the previous regime, although the molar N: P ratio in coastal waters is now well above the Redfield ratio and continually increasing. Besides becoming warmer, North Sea waters are also becoming clearer (i.e., less turbid), thereby allowing the normally light-limited coastal phytoplankton to more effectively utilize lower concentrations of nutrients. Linear regression analyses indicate that winter Secchi depth and sea surface temperature are the most important predictors of coastal Chl a, while Atlantic inflow is the best predictor of open Chl a; nutrient concentrations are not a significant predictor in either model. Thus, despite decreasing nutrient concentrations, Chl a continues to increase, suggesting that climatic variability and water transparency may be more important than nutrient concentrations to phytoplankton production at the scale of this study.

Spatio-Temporal Variability of the North Sea Cod Recruitment in Relation to Temperature and Zooplankton

The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua, L.) stock has continuously declined over the past four decades linked with overfishing and climate change. Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made the stock largely dependent on its recruitment success, which greatly relies on environmental conditions. Here we focus on the spatio-temporal variability of cod recruitment in an effort to detect changes during the critical early life stages. Using International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1974 to 2011, a major spatio-temporal change in the distribution of cod recruits was identified in the late 1990s, characterized by a pronounced decrease in the central and southeastern North Sea stock. Other minor spatial changes were also recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. We tested whether the observed changes in recruits distribution could be related with direct (i.e. temperature) and/or indirect (i.e. changes in the quantity and quality of zooplankton prey) effects of climate variability. The analyses were based on spatially-resolved time series, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) from the Hadley Center and zooplankton records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey. We showed that spring SST increase was the main driver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment. The late 1990s were also characterized by relatively low total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-rich zooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which have further contributed to the decline of North Sea cod recruitment. Long-term spatially-resolved observations were used to produce regional distribution models that could further be used to predict the abundance of North Sea cod recruits based on temperature and zooplankton food availability.

From silk to satellite: half a century of ocean colour anomalies in the Northeast Atlantic

Changes in phytoplankton dynamics influence marine biogeochemical cycles, climate processes, and food webs, with substantial social and economic consequences. Large-scale estimation of phytoplankton biomass was possible via ocean colour measurements from two remote sensing satellites – the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS, 1979-1986) and the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS, 1998-2010). Due to the large gap between the two satellite eras and differences in sensor characteristics, comparison of the absolute values retrieved from the two instruments remains challenging. Using a unique in situ ocean colour dataset that spans more than half a century, the two satellite-derived chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) eras are linked to assess concurrent changes in phytoplankton variability and bloom timing over the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and North Sea. Results from this unique re-analysis reflect a clear increasing pattern of Chl-a, a merging of the two seasonal phytoplankton blooms producing a longer growing season and higher seasonal biomass, since the mid-1980s. The broader climate plays a key role in Chl-a variability as the ocean colour anomalies parallel the oscillations of the Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) since 1948.

ICES status report on climate change in the North Atlantic

Although the physical and chemical principles that explain the warming of the Earth’s system resulting from emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases were understood at the end of the 19th century (Tyndall, 1861; Arrhenius, 1896) and at the beginning of the 20th century (Callendar, 1938), it was almost 100 years later, in the mid‐1980s, before it was realized that these processes were contributing to a rapid change in climate. The potential consequences of this global warming have still to be revealed and are difficult to anticipate.

Recovery from TBT pollution in English Channel environments: A problem solved?

Following recognition of effects in the 1980s, tributyltin (TBT) has been monitored at sites in the English Channel to evaluate the prognosis for biota – spanning the introduction of restrictions on TBT use on small boats and the recent phase-out on the global fleet. We describe how persistence and impact of TBT in clams Scrobicularia plana has changed during this period in Southampton Water and Poole Harbour. TBT contamination (and loss) in water, sediment and clams reflects the abundance and type of vessel activity: half-times in sediment (up to 8y in Poole, 33y in Southampton) are longest near commercial shipping. Recovery of clam populations – slowest in TBT-contaminated deposits – provides a useful biological measure of legislative efficacy in estuaries. On rocky shores, recovery from imposex in Nucella lapillus is evident at many sites but, near ports, is prolonged by shipping impacts, including sediment legacy, for example, in the Fal.

Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios

The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca.60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here we develop and apply tools to project the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca.11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by less than 10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared to the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of less than 20% compared to current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska

Regime shifts have been reported in many marine ecosystems, and are often expressed as an abrupt change occurring in multiple physical and biological components of the system. In the Gulf of Alaska, a regime shift in the late 1970s was observed, indicated by an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature and major shifts in the catch of many fish species. This late 1970s regime shift in the Gulf of Alaska was followed by another shift in the late 1980s, not as pervasive as the 1977 shift, but which nevertheless did not return to the prior state. A thorough understanding of the extent and mechanisms leading to such regime shifts is challenged by data paucity in time and space. We investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemistry models of varying complexity to simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska by examining the presence of abrupt changes in time series of physical variables (sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth), nutrients and biological variables (chlorophyll, primary productivity and plankton biomass) using change-point analysis. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical models are capable of simulating the late 1970s shift, indicating an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature forcing followed by an abrupt decrease in nutrients and biological productivity. This predicted shift is consistent among all the models, although some of them exhibit an abrupt transition (i.e. a significant shift from one year to the next), whereas others simulate a smoother transition. Some models further suggest that the late 1980s shift was constrained by changes in mixed layer depth. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region, thereby providing better understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels through bottom-up controls.

Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

Abortion and Nation: The Politics of Reproduction in Contemporary Ireland

Abortion politics are contentious and divisive in many parts of the world, but nowhere more so than in Ireland. Abortion and Nation examines the connection between abortion politics and hegemonic struggles over national identity and the nation-state in the Irish Republic. Situating the abortion question in the global context of human rights politics, as well as international social movements, Lisa Smyth analyses the formation and transformation of abortion politics in Ireland from the early 1980s to the present day. She considers whether or not the shifting connections between morality, rights and nationhood promise a new era of gender equality in the context of nation-state citizenship.
The book provides a new sociological framework through which the significance of conflict over abortion and reproductive freedom is connected to conflict over national identity. It also offers a distinctive in-depth consideration of the connection between gender and nationhood, particularly in terms of its impact on women's status as citizens; within the nation-state; within the European Union; and as members of a global civil society.

Trends in the prevalence of cerebral palsy in Northern Ireland, 1981-1997

We describe trends in the prevalence of cerebral palsy (CP) by birth weight group, and in the severity of motor impairments and presence of associated intellectual impairment, in Northern Ireland from 1981 to 1997 (n=909; 510 males, 399 females; total population 415 936 live births) using data from a population-based register of CP. Children with suspected CP or who died before 1 year of age and those with CP of postneonatal origin were excluded. Prevalence of CP was 2.2 per 1000 live births without significant change over time. Among very-low-birthweight (<1500g) live births, prevalence was 44.5 per 1000 (95% confidence interval 32.3–59.8) from 1994 to 1997, with evidence of a statistically significant decline in prevalence since the mid- to late 1980s accompanied by a decrease in the severity of motor impairment and likelihood of intellectual impairment. Among moderately-low-birthweight (1500–2499g) children there was weaker evidence of a peak prevalence in the late 1980s. Prevalence among normal-birthweight infants did not change significantly, but outcome in terms of severity of motor impairment and intellectual impairment improved in the 1990s. Occurrence of bilateral spasticity from 1994 to 1997 was associated with greater severity and likelihood of intellectual impairment for normal-birthweight individuals than for low- or very-low-birth weight individuals.

Key issues in the study of new and alternative social movements in Spain: The Left, Identity and Globalizing Processes

This article highlights the importance of dedicating a whole special issue on New and Alternative Social movements in Spain. It sets the basis for this endeavour by emphasizing the importance of the 2004, unexpected, electoral victory of the Spanish socialists, and the subsequent satisfaction of the important demands promoted by certain social movements actors and Spanish society in general (the withdrawal of Spanish troops from Iraq, the cancellation of the National Hydrological Plan and the Legalization of same sex marriages. The view supported is that these developments signify the end of a protest cycle, which could have the same effect with the early 1980s socialist victory. After a discussion around the low associationalism that characterizes Spanish society and recent experience of authoritarianism, it is suggested that it is time for the study of new and alternative social movements in Spain and other south European societies to move beyond the emphasis on exceptionality but appreciate differences by focusing on the available political opportunities and the identity of social movement actors. The remainder of the article is dedicated to introducing the contributing articles.