Using satellite telemetry and environmental niche modelling to inform conservation targets for a long-distance migratory raptor in its wintering grounds

Understanding the ecology of migratory birds during the non-breeding season is necessary for ensuring their conservation. Using satellite telemetry data we describe winter ranging behaviour and movements of pallid harriers Circus macrourus that bred in Kazakhstan. We developed an ecological niche model for the species in Africa, to identify the most suitable wintering areas for pallid harriers and the importance of habitat in determining the location of those areas. We also assessed how well represented suitable areas are in the network of protected areas. Individual harriers showed relatively high fidelity to wintering areas but with potential for interannual changes. The ecological niche model highlighted the importance of open habitats with natural vegetation. Most suitable areas for the species were located in eastern Africa. Suitable areas had a patchy distribution but were relatively well included in the network of protected areas. The preferential use of habitats with natural vegetation by wintering pallid harriers and the patchiness of the most suitable areas highlight the harrier's vulnerability to land-use changes and the associated loss of natural vegetation in Africa. Conservation of harriers could be enhanced by preserving natural grasslands within protected areas and improving habitat management in the human-influenced portions of the species’ core wintering areas.

A diffuse reflectance comparative study of benzil inclusion within microcrystalline cellulose and beta-cyclodextrin

Diffuse reflectance and laser-induced techniques were used to study photochemical and photophysical processes of benzil adsorbed on two solid powdered supports, microcrystalline cellulose and beta-cyclodextrin. In both substrates, a distribution of ground-state benzil conformers exists, largely dominated by skew conformations where the carbonyl groups are twisted one to the other. Room temperature phosphorescence was observed in air-equilibrated samples in both cases. The decay times vary greatly and the largest lifetime was obtained for benzil/beta-cyclodextrin, showing that this host's cavity accommodates benzil well, enhancing its room temperature phosphorescence. Triplet - triplet absorption of benzil entrapped in cellulose was detected and benzil ketyl radical formation also occurred. With benzil included into beta-cyclodextrin, and following laser excitation, benzoyl radicals were detected on the millisecond timescale. Product analysis and identification of laser-irradiated benzil samples in the two hosts clearly showed that the main degradation photoproducts were benzoic acid and benzaldehyde. The main differences were a larger benzoic acid/benzaldehyde ratio in the case of cellulose and the formation of benzyl alcohol in this support.

A diffuse reflectance comparative study of benzil inclusion within p-tert-butylcalix[n]arenes (n=4, 6, and 8) and silicalite

Diffuse reflectance and laser-induced techniques were used to access photochemical and photophysical processes of benzil in solid supports, namely p-tert-butylcalix[n]arenes with n = 4, 6, and 8. A comparative study was performed using these results and those obtained with another electronically inert support, silicalite, which is a hydrophobic zeolite. In the latter substrate, ground-state benzil has the two carbonyl groups in an s-trans planar conformation while in the calixarenes a distribution of conformers exists, largely dominated by skew conformations where the carbonyl groups are twisted one to the other. In all substrates, room-temperature phosphorescence was obtained in air-equilibrated samples. The decay times vary greatly and the largest lifetime was obtained for benzil/p-tert-butylcalix[6]arene, showing that this host cavity well accommodates benzil, enhancing its room-temperature phosphorescence. p-tert-Butylcalix[6] and [8]arene molecules provide larger hydrophobic cavities than silicalite, and inclusion complexes are formed with these hosts and benzil as guest; p-tert-butylcalix[4]arene does not include benzil. This probe is deposited outside the calix[41 cavity, in the form of microcrystals. Triplet-triplet absorption of benzil was detected in all cases and is predominant in the silicalite channel inclusion case. Benzil ketyl radical formation occurs with inclusion in calix[6]arene and calix[8]arene. In the three cases, benzoyl radical was detected at long times (in the millisecond time scale). Product analysis and identification clearly show that the main detected degradation photoproducts in all substrates are benzoyl radical derivatives. Calix[6] and [8]arenes are able to supply hydrogen atoms that allow also another reaction, the reduction to benzoin through benzil ketyl radical formation.

Jointly event extraction and visualization on Twitter via probabilistic modelling

Event extraction from texts aims to detect structured information such as what has happened, to whom, where and when. Event extraction and visualization are typically considered as two different tasks. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on probabilistic modelling to jointly extract and visualize events from tweets where both tasks benefit from each other. We model each event as a joint distribution over named entities, a date, a location and event-related keywords. Moreover, both tweets and event instances are associated with coordinates in the visualization space. The manifold assumption that the intrinsic geometry of tweets is a low-rank, non-linear manifold within the high-dimensional space is incorporated into the learning framework using a regularization. Experimental results show that the proposed approach can effectively deal with both event extraction and visualization and performs remarkably better than both the state-of-the-art event extraction method and a pipeline approach for event extraction and visualization.

Modelling and predictive control techniques for building heating systems

Model predictive control (MPC) has often been referred to in literature as a potential method for more efficient control of building heating systems. Though a significant performance improvement can be achieved with an MPC strategy, the complexity introduced to the commissioning of the system is often prohibitive. Models are required which can capture the thermodynamic properties of the building with sufficient accuracy for meaningful predictions to be made. Furthermore, a large number of tuning weights may need to be determined to achieve a desired performance. For MPC to become a practicable alternative, these issues must be addressed. Acknowledging the impact of the external environment as well as the interaction of occupants on the thermal behaviour of the building, in this work, techniques have been developed for deriving building models from data in which large, unmeasured disturbances are present. A spatio-temporal filtering process was introduced to determine estimates of the disturbances from measured data, which were then incorporated with metaheuristic search techniques to derive high-order simulation models, capable of replicating the thermal dynamics of a building. While a high-order simulation model allowed for control strategies to be analysed and compared, low-order models were required for use within the MPC strategy itself. The disturbance estimation techniques were adapted for use with system-identification methods to derive such models. MPC formulations were then derived to enable a more straightforward commissioning process and implemented in a validated simulation platform. A prioritised-objective strategy was developed which allowed for the tuning parameters typically associated with an MPC cost function to be omitted from the formulation by separation of the conflicting requirements of comfort satisfaction and energy reduction within a lexicographic framework. The improved ability of the formulation to be set-up and reconfigured in faulted conditions was shown.

The locations of recent supernovae near the Sun from modelling 60Fe transport

The signature of 60Fe in deep-sea crusts indicates that one or more supernovae exploded in the solar neighbourhood about 2.2 million years ago1–4. Recent isotopic analysis is consistent with a core-collapse or electron-capture supernova that occurred 60 to 130 parsecs from the Sun5. Moreover, peculiarities in the cosmic ray spectrum point to a nearby supernova about two million years ago6. The Local Bubble of hot, diffuse plasma, in which the Solar System is embedded, originated from 14 to 20 supernovae within a moving group, whose surviving members are now in the Scorpius– Centaurus stellar association7,8. Here we report calculations of the most probable trajectories and masses of the supernova progenitors, and hence their explosion times and sites. The 60Fe signal arises from two supernovae at distances between 90 and 100 parsecs. The closest occurred 2.3 million years ago at present-day galactic coordinates l = 327°, b = 11°, and the second-closest exploded about 1.5 million years ago at l = 343°, b = 25°, with masses of 9.2 and 8.8 times the solar mass, respectively. The remaining supernovae, which formed the Local Bubble, contribute to a smaller extent because they happened at larger distances and longer ago (60Fe has a half- life of 2.6 million years9,10). There are uncertainties relating to the nucleosynthesis yields and the loss of 60Fe during transport, but they do not influence the relative distribution of 60Fe in the crust layers, and therefore our model reproduces the measured relative abundances very well.

Numerical modelling and structural optimization of multifunctional maritime structures aimed to protect harbours and produce energy

The main objective of this PhD thesis is to optimize a specific multifunctional maritime structure for harbour protection and energy production, named Overtopping Breakwater for Energy Conversion (OBREC), developed by the team of the University of Campania. This device is provided with a sloping plate followed by a unique reservoir, which is linked with the machine room (where the energy conversion occurs) by means of a pipe passing through the crown wall, provided with a parapet on top of it. Therefore, the potential energy of the overtopping waves, collected inside the reservoir located above the still water level, is then converted by means of low – head turbines. In order to improve the understanding of the wave – structure interactions with OBREC, several methodologies have been used and combined together: i. analysis of recent experimental campaigns on wave overtopping discharges and pressures at the crown wall on small – scale OBREC cross sections, carried out in other laboratories by the team of the University of Campania; ii. new experiments on cross sections similar to the OBREC device, planned and carried out in the hydraulic lab at the University of Bologna in the framework of this PhD work; iii. numerical modelling with a 1 – phase incompressible fluid model IH – 2VOF, developed by the University of Cantabria, and with a 2 – phase incompressible fluid model OpenFOAM, both available from the literature; iv. numerical modelling with a new 2 – phase compressible fluid model developed in the OpenFOAM environment within this PhD work; v. analysis of the data gained from the monitoring of the OBREC prototype installation.

Development and testing of innovative methodologies for modelling and control of normal and knocking combustion and implementation of novel rapid prototyping solutions

The thesis work deals with topics that led to the development of innovative control-oriented models and control algorithms for modern gasoline engines. Knock in boosted spark ignition engines is the widest topic discussed in this document because it remains one of the most limiting factors for maximizing combustion efficiency in this kind of engine. First chapter is thus focused on knock and a wide literature review is proposed to summarize the preliminary knowledge that even represents the background and the reference for discussed activities. Most relevant results achieved during PhD course in the field of knock modelling and control are then presented, describing every control-oriented model that led to the development of an adaptive model-based combustion control system. The complete controller has been developed in the context of the collaboration with Ferrari GT and it allowed to completely redefine the knock intensity evaluation as well as the combustion phase control. The second chapter is focused on the activity related to a prototyping Port Water Injection system that has been developed and tested on a turbocharged spark ignition engine, within the collaboration with Magneti Marelli. Such system and the effects of injected water on the combustion process were then modeled in a 1-D simulation environment (GT Power). Third chapter shows the development and validation of a control-oriented model for the real-time calculation of exhaust gas temperature that represents another important limitation to the performance increase in modern boosted engines. Indeed, modelling of exhaust gas temperature and thermocouple behavior are themes that play a key role in the optimization of combustion and catalyst efficiency.

Analysis of the impact of stationary energy storage systems in trolleybus grids using Simulink-based modelling

The voltage profile of the catenary between traction substations (TSSs) is affected by the trolleybus current intake and by its position with respect to the TSSs: the higher the current requested by the bus and the further the bus from the TSSs, the deeper the voltage drop. When the voltage drops below 500V, the trolleybus is forced to decrease its consumption by reducing its input current. This thesis deals with the analysis of the improvements that the installation of an BESS produces in the operation of a particularly loaded FS of the DC trolleybus network of the city of Bologna. The stationary BESS is charged by the TSSs during off-peak times and delivers the stored energy when the catenary is overloaded alleviating the load on the TSSs and reducing the voltage drops. Only IMC buses are considered in the prospect of a future disposal of all internal combustion engine vehicles. These trolleybuses cause deeper voltage drops because they absorb enough current to power their traction motor and recharge the on board battery. The control of the BESS aims to keep the catenary voltage within the admissible voltage range and makes sure that all physical limitations are met. A model of FS Marconi Trento Trieste is implemented in Simulink environment to simulate its daily operation and compare the behavior of the trolleybus network with and without BESS. From the simulation without BESS, the best location of the energy storage system is deduced, and the battery control is tuned. Furthermore, from the knowledge of the load curve and the battery control trans-characteristic, it is formulated a prediction of the voltage distribution at BESS connection point. The prediction is then compared with the simulation results to validate the Simulink model. The BESS allows to decrease the voltage drops along the catenary, the Joule losses and the current delivered by the TSSs, indicating that the BESS can be a solution to improve the operation of the trolleybus network.

Modelling and Uncertainty Quantification application to SA simulation codes in advanced SMR

In the framework of a global transition to a low-carbon energy mix, the interest in advanced nuclear Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) has been growing at the international level. Due to the high level of maturity reached by Severe Accident Codes for currently operating rectors, their applicability to advanced SMRs is starting to be studied. Within the present work of thesis and in the framework of a collaboration between ENEA, UNIBO and IRSN, an ASTEC code model of a generic IRIS reactor has been developed. The simulation of a DBA sequence involving the operation of all the passive safety systems of the generic IRIS has been carried out to investigate the code model capability in the prediction of the thermal-hydraulics characterizing an integral SMR adopting a passive mitigation strategy. The following simulation of 4 BDBAs sequences explores the applicability of Severe Accident Codes to advance SMRs in beyond-design and core-degradation conditions. The uncertainty affecting a code simulation can be estimated by using the method of Input Uncertainty Propagation, whose application has been realized through the RAVEN-ASTEC coupling and implementation on an HPC platform. This probabilistic methodology has been employed in a study of the uncertainty affecting the passive safety system operation in the DBA simulation of ASTEC, providing a further characterization of the thermal-hydraulics of this sequence. The application of the Uncertainty Quantification method to early core-melt phenomena has been investigated in the framework of a BEPU analysis of the ASTEC simulation of the QUENCH test-6 experiment. A possible solution to the encountered challenges has been proposed through the application of a Limit Surface search algorithm.

A take on complexity: bio-molecules and human metabolism interaction modelling for health and nutrition with machine learning

The advent of omic data production has opened many new perspectives in the quest for modelling complexity in biophysical systems. With the capability of characterizing a complex organism through the patterns of its molecular states, observed at different levels through various omics, a new paradigm of investigation is arising. In this thesis, we investigate the links between perturbations of the human organism, described as the ensemble of crosstalk of its molecular states, and health. Machine learning plays a key role within this picture, both in omic data analysis and model building. We propose and discuss different frameworks developed by the author using machine learning for data reduction, integration, projection on latent features, pattern analysis, classification and clustering of omic data, with a focus on 1H NMR metabolomic spectral data. The aim is to link different levels of omic observations of molecular states, from nanoscale to macroscale, to study perturbations such as diseases and diet interpreted as changes in molecular patterns. The first part of this work focuses on the fingerprinting of diseases, linking cellular and systemic metabolomics with genomic to asses and predict the downstream of perturbations all the way down to the enzymatic network. The second part is a set of frameworks and models, developed with 1H NMR metabolomic at its core, to study the exposure of the human organism to diet and food intake in its full complexity, from epidemiological data analysis to molecular characterization of food structure.

Numerical modelling of rock masses interacting with dams: the case of Ridracoli

A three-dimensional Direct Finite Element procedure is here presented which takes into account most of the factors affecting the interaction problem of the dam-water-foundation system, whilst keeping the computational cost at a reasonable level by introducing some simplified hypotheses. A truncated domain is defined, and the dynamic behaviour of the system is treated as a wave-scattering problem where the presence of the dam perturbs an original free-field system. The rock foundation truncated boundaries are enclosed by a set of free-field one-dimensional and two-dimensional systems which transmit the effective forces to the main model and apply adsorbing viscous boundaries to ensure radiation damping. The water domain is treated as an added mass moving with the dam. A strategy is proposed to keep the viscous dampers at the boundaries unloaded during the initial phases of analysis, when the static loads are initialised, and thus avoid spurious displacements. A focus is given to the nonlinear behaviour of the rock foundation, with concentrated plasticity along the natural discontinuities of the rock mass, immersed in an otherwise linear elastic medium with Rayleigh damping. The entire procedure is implemented in the commercial software Abaqus®, whose base code is enriched with specific user subroutines when needed. All the extra coding is attached to the Thesis and tested against analytical results and simple examples. Possible rock wedge instabilities induced by intense ground motion, which are not easily investigated within a comprehensive model of the dam-water-foundation system, are treated separately with a simplified decoupled dynamic approach derived from the classical Newmark method, integrated with FE calculation of dam thrust on the wedges during the earthquake. Both the described approaches are applied to the case study of the Ridracoli arch-gravity dam (Italy) in order to investigate its seismic response to the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) in a full reservoir condition.

Connecting works of art within the semantic web of symbolic meanings

My doctoral research is about the modelling of symbolism in the cultural heritage domain, and on connecting artworks based on their symbolism through knowledge extraction and representation techniques. In particular, I participated in the design of two ontologies: one models the relationships between a symbol, its symbolic meaning, and the cultural context in which the symbol symbolizes the symbolic meaning; the second models artistic interpretations of a cultural heritage object from an iconographic and iconological (thus also symbolic) perspective. I also converted several sources of unstructured data, a dictionary of symbols and an encyclopaedia of symbolism, and semi-structured data, DBpedia and WordNet, to create HyperReal, the first knowledge graph dedicated to conventional cultural symbolism. By making use of HyperReal's content, I showed how linked open data about cultural symbolism could be utilized to initiate a series of quantitative studies that analyse (i) similarities between cultural contexts based on their symbologies, (ii) broad symbolic associations, (iii) specific case studies of symbolism such as the relationship between symbols, their colours, and their symbolic meanings. Moreover, I developed a system that can infer symbolic, cultural context-dependent interpretations from artworks according to what they depict, envisioning potential use cases for museum curation. I have then re-engineered the iconographic and iconological statements of Wikidata, a widely used general-domain knowledge base, creating ICONdata: an iconographic and iconological knowledge graph. ICONdata was then enriched with automatic symbolic interpretations. Subsequently, I demonstrated the significance of enhancing artwork information through alignment with linked open data related to symbolism, resulting in the discovery of novel connections between artworks. Finally, I contributed to the creation of a software application. This application leverages established connections, allowing users to investigate the symbolic expression of a concept across different cultural contexts through the generation of a three-dimensional exhibition of artefacts symbolising the chosen concept.

Taxonomy, phylogeography and myrmecophily of the spider genus Mastigusa (Araneae, Cybaeidae)

The genus Mastigusa Menge, 1854 includes small entelegyne spiders represented by extant and fossil species presenting characteristic features in male and female genitalia. The genus has a palearctic distribution, being present in Europe, North Africa, and the Near East, and shows ecological plasticity, with free-living, cave- dwelling and myrmecophile populations. The taxonomic history of the genus has been problematic, both regarding its phylogenetic placement and the delimitation of the species it includes. Three extant species are currently recognized, but the characters used to discriminate them have been inconsistent, leading to confusion about their identification and distribution. In the present thesis we addressed the taxonomic issues regarding Mastigusa by combining molecular and morphological data in an integrative taxonomy approach. For the first time, we included the genus in a molecular phylogenetic matrix solving a long going debate regarding its familiar placement, obtaining a well-supported placement in the family Cybaeidae. We used multi-locus molecular phylogenetic and DNA barcoding techniques as a starting point for identifying divergent lineages within the genus and revise the taxonomic status of the three known Mastigusa species, identifying a new species from the Iberian Peninsula, Algeria and the United Kingdom: M. raimondi sp. n. This taxonomic revision allowed a phylogeographic and ecological study of Mastigusa across its distribution range, carried out using phylogenetics and ecological niche modelling techniques, aiming at a comparison of the lifestyles and ecological requirements of the different species on a geographic scale. The Italian Alps were finally used as a testing ground for investigating the ecology and host preference of myrmecophile Mastigusa arietina populations living in association with ant species belonging to the Formica rufa species group. Spiders were found in association with five different Formica species, demonstrating little specificity and the tendency of associating with the locally present host species.

Modelling and classification with quantile-based distributions

In this work, we explore and demonstrate the potential for modeling and classification using quantile-based distributions, which are random variables defined by their quantile function. In the first part we formalize a least squares estimation framework for the class of linear quantile functions, leading to unbiased and asymptotically normal estimators. Among the distributions with a linear quantile function, we focus on the flattened generalized logistic distribution (fgld), which offers a wide range of distributional shapes. A novel naïve-Bayes classifier is proposed that utilizes the fgld estimated via least squares, and through simulations and applications, we demonstrate its competitiveness against state-of-the-art alternatives. In the second part we consider the Bayesian estimation of quantile-based distributions. We introduce a factor model with independent latent variables, which are distributed according to the fgld. Similar to the independent factor analysis model, this approach accommodates flexible factor distributions while using fewer parameters. The model is presented within a Bayesian framework, an MCMC algorithm for its estimation is developed, and its effectiveness is illustrated with data coming from the European Social Survey. The third part focuses on depth functions, which extend the concept of quantiles to multivariate data by imposing a center-outward ordering in the multivariate space. We investigate the recently introduced integrated rank-weighted (IRW) depth function, which is based on the distribution of random spherical projections of the multivariate data. This depth function proves to be computationally efficient and to increase its flexibility we propose different methods to explicitly model the projected univariate distributions. Its usefulness is shown in classification tasks: the maximum depth classifier based on the IRW depth is proven to be asymptotically optimal under certain conditions, and classifiers based on the IRW depth are shown to perform well in simulated and real data experiments.