Impact of Interbasin Exchange on the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

The ther mohaline exchange between the Atlantic and the Souther n Ocean is analyzed, using a dataset based on WOCE hydrographic data. It is shown that the salt and heat transports brought about by the South Atlantic subtropical gyre play an essential role in the Atlantic heat and salt budgets. It is found that on average the exported North Atlantic Deep W ater (NADW) is fresher than the retur n flows (basically composed of ther mocline and inter mediate water), indicating that the overtur ning circulation (OC) exports freshwater from the Atlantic. The sensitivity of the OC to interbasin fluxes of heat and salt is studied in a 2 D model, representing the Atlantic between 60 8 N and 30 8 S. The model is forced by mixed boundar y conditions at the sur face, and by realistic fluxes of heat and salt at its 30 8 S boundar y. The model circulation tur ns out to be ver y sensitive to net buoyancy fluxes through the sur face. Both net sur face cooling and net sur face saltening are sources of potential energy and impact positively on the circulation strength. The vertical distributions of the lateral fluxes tend to stabilize the stratification, and, as they extract potential energy from the system, tend to weaken the flow . These results imply that a change in the composition of the NADW retur n transports, whether by a change in the ratio ther mocline/inter mediate water , o r by a change in their ther mohaline characteristics, might influence the Atlantic OC considerably . It is also shown that the circulation is much more sensitive to changes in the shape of the lateral buoyancy flux than to changes in the shape of the sur face buoyancy flux, as the latter does not explicitly impact on the potential energy of the system. It is concluded that interocean fluxes of heat and salt are important for the strength and operation of the Atlantic ther mohaline circulation, and should be correctly represented in models that are used for climate sensitivity studies.

The impact of oceanic heat transport on the atmospheric circulation

A general circulation model of intermediate complexity with an idealized Earth-like aquaplanet setup is used to study the impact of changes in the oceanic heat transport on the global atmospheric circulation. Focus is on the atmospheric mean meridional circulation and global thermodynamic properties. The atmosphere counterbalances to a large extent the imposed changes in the oceanic heat transport, but, nonetheless, significant modifications to the atmospheric general circulation are found. Increasing the strength of the oceanic heat transport up to 2.5 PW leads to an increase in the global mean near-surface temperature and to a decrease in its equator-to-pole gradient. For stronger transports, the gradient is reduced further, but the global mean remains approximately constant. This is linked to a cooling and a reversal of the temperature gradient in the tropics. Additionally, a stronger oceanic heat transport leads to a decline in the intensity and a poleward shift of the maxima of both the Hadley and Ferrel cells. Changes in zonal mean diabatic heating and friction impact the properties of the Hadley cell, while the behavior of the Ferrel cell is mostly controlled by friction. The efficiency of the climate machine, the intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle and the material entropy production of the system decline with increased oceanic heat transport. This suggests that the climate system becomes less efficient and turns into a state of reduced entropy production as the enhanced oceanic transport performs a stronger large-scale mixing between geophysical fluids with different temperatures, thus reducing the available energy in the climate system and bringing it closer to a state of thermal equilibrium.

The impact of national context effects on HRM practices in Russian subsidiaries of Western MNCs

This article contributes to the research on comparative human resource management by providing a model of the Russian business system and its effect on human resource management practices at Russian subsidiaries of Western multinational companies. Whitley’s approach was adopted to illustrate the links between institutional arenas, business systems, and human resource management practices. The empirical part is based on interviews with senior human resources managers of Western multinational companies operating in Russia. The findings provide insight into the interaction between the national business system and human resource management practices in Russia.

An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with the Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

Copyright exceptions and contract in the UK: the impact of recent amendments

In June and October 2014 a number of amendments to the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 came into effect, introducing new copyright exceptions and amending several existing exceptions. Whilst following recent judicial review the private copying exception has been quashed, many of the remaining new exceptions significantly alter the relationship between copyright exceptions and contract, making contractual terms unenforceable where those terms restrict users from taking advantage of an exception. This paper explores the rationale for the UK amendments and considers whether the changes, as implemented, prevent rightsholders from contracting out of exceptions and whether they increase the clarity of the copyright system.

The impact of westerly wind bursts and ocean initial state on the development, and diversity of El Niño events

Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) that occur in the western tropical Pacific are believed to play an important role in the development of El Niño events. Here, following the study of Lengaigne et al. (Clim Dyn 23(6):601–620, 2004), we conduct numerical simulations in which we reexamine the response of the climate system to an observed wind burst added to a coupled general circulation model. Two sets of twin ensemble experiments are conducted (each set has control and perturbed experiments). In the first set, the initial ocean heat content of the system is higher than the model climatology (recharged), while in the second set it is nearly normal (neutral). For the recharged state, in the absence of WWBs, a moderate El Niño with a maximum warming in the central Pacific (CP) develops in about a year. In contrast, for the neutral state, there develops a weak La Niña. However, when the WWB is imposed, the situation dramatically changes: the recharged state slides into an El Niño with a maximum warming in the eastern Pacific, while the neutral set produces a weak CP El Niño instead of previous La Niña conditions. The different response of the system to the exact same perturbations is controlled by the initial state of the ocean and the subsequent ocean–atmosphere interactions involving the interplay between the eastward shift of the warm pool and the warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific. Consequently, the observed diversity of El Niño, including the occurrence of extreme events, may depend on stochastic atmospheric processes, modulating El Niño properties within a broad continuum.

Simulating the impact on health of internalising the cost of carbon in food prices combined with a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages

Rising greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) have implications for health and up to 30 % of emissions globally are thought to arise from agriculture. Synergies exist between diets low in GHGEs and health however some foods have the opposite relationship, such as sugar production being a relatively low source of GHGEs. In order to address this and to further characterise a healthy sustainable diet, we model the effect on UK non-communicable disease mortality and GHGEs of internalising the social cost of carbon into the price of food alongside a 20 % tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). Developing previously published work, we simulate four tax scenarios: (A) a GHGEs tax of £2.86/tonne of CO2 equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product on all products with emissions greater than the mean across all food groups (0.36 kgCO2e/100 g); (B) scenario A but with subsidies on foods with emissions lower than 0.36 kgCO2e/100 g such that the effect is revenue neutral; (C) scenario A but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs; (D) scenario B but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs. An almost ideal demand system is used to estimate price elasticities and a comparative risk assessment model is used to estimate changes to non-communicable disease mortality. We estimate that scenario A would lead to 300 deaths delayed or averted, 18,900 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.0 billion tax revenue; scenario B, 90 deaths delayed or averted and 17,100 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs; scenario C, 1,200 deaths delayed or averted, 18,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.4 billion revenue; and scenario D, 2,000 deaths delayed or averted and 16,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs. Deaths averted are mainly due to increased fibre and reduced fat consumption; a SSB tax reduces SSB and sugar consumption. Incorporating the social cost of carbon into the price of food has the potential to improve health, reduce GHGEs, and raise revenue. The simple addition of a tax on SSBs can mitigate negative health consequences arising from sugar being low in GHGEs. Further conflicts remain, including increased consumption of unhealthy foods such as cakes and nutrients such as salt.

Prebiotic potential of a maize-based soluble fibre and impact of dose on the human gut microbiota

Dietary management of the human gut microbiota towards a more beneficial composition is one approach that may improve host health. To date, a large number of human intervention studies have demonstrated that dietary consumption of certain food products can result in significant changes in the composition of the gut microbiota i.e. the prebiotic concept. Thus the prebiotic effect is now established as a dietary approach to increase beneficial gut bacteria and it has been associated with modulation of health biomarkers and modulation of the immune system. Promitor™ Soluble Corn Fibre (SCF) is a well-known maize-derived source of dietary fibre with potential selective fermentation properties. Our aim was to determine the optimum prebiotic dose of tolerance, desired changes to microbiota and fermentation of SCF in healthy adult subjects. A double-blind, randomised, parallel study was completed where volunteers (n = 8/treatment group) consumed 8, 14 or 21 g from SCF (6, 12 and 18 g/fibre delivered respectively) over 14-d. Over the range of doses studied, SCF was well tolerated Numbers of bifidobacteria were significantly higher for the 6 g/fibre/day compared to 12g and 18g/fibre delivered/day (mean 9.25 and 9.73 Log10 cells/g fresh faeces in the pre-treatment and treatment periods respectively). Such a numerical change of 0.5 Log10 bifidobacteria/g fresh faeces is consistent with those changes observed for inulin-type fructans, which are recognised prebiotics. A possible prebiotic effect of SCF was therefore demonstrated by its stimulation of bifidobacteria numbers in the overall gut microbiota during a short-term intervention.

Increasing thermal plant flexibility in a high renewables power system

Thermal generation is a vital component of mature and reliable electricity markets. As the share of renewable electricity in such markets grows, so too do the challenges associated with its variability. Proposed solutions to these challenges typically focus on alternatives to primary generation, such as energy storage, demand side management, or increased interconnection. Less attention is given to the demands placed on conventional thermal generation or its potential for increased flexibility. However, for the foreseeable future, conventional plants will have to operate alongside new renewables and have an essential role in accommodating increasing supply-side variability. This paper explores the role that conventional generation has to play in managing variability through the sub-system case study of Northern Ireland, identifying the significance of specific plant characteristics for reliable system operation. Particular attention is given to the challenges of wind ramping and the need to avoid excessive wind curtailment. Potential for conflict is identified with the role for conventional plant in addressing these two challenges. Market specific strategies for using the existing fleet of generation to reduce the impact of renewable resource variability are proposed, and wider lessons from the approach taken are identified.

La Niña 2016/2017: historical impact analysis

El Niño conditions developed in the tropical Pacific during the latter half of 2015, peaking in December 2015 as one of the strongest El Niño events on record, comparable with the 1997-98 “El Niño of the century”. Conditions in the tropical Pacific are forecast to return to normal over the coming months, with the potential to transition into La Niña conditions during 2016-17. If this was to occur it would act as a further strong perturbation, or ‘kick’, to the climate system and lead to further significant socio-economic impacts affecting many sectors such as infrastructure, agriculture, health and energy. This report analyses La Niña events over the last 37 years of the satellite era (1979-present) and aims to identify regions where there is an increased likelihood of impacts occurring. It is important to note that this analysis is based on past analogous events and is not a prediction for this year. No two La Niña events will be the same – the timing and magnitude of events differs considerably. More importantly, no two La Niña events lead to the same impacts – other local physical and social factors come into play. Therefore, the exact timings, locations and magnitudes of impacts should be interpreted with caution and this should be accounted for in any preparedness measures that are taken. This report has been produced for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.

Economic Impact of a Rotavirus Vaccine in Brazil

The study was done to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a national rotavirus vaccination programme in Brazilian children from the healthcare system perspective. A hypothetical annual birth-cohort was followed for a five-year period. Published and national administrative data were incorporated into a model to quantify the consequences of vaccination versus no vaccination. Main outcome measures included the reduction in disease burden, lives saved, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. A rotavirus vaccination programme in Brazil would prevent an estimated 1,804 deaths associated with gastroenteritis due to rotavirus, 91,127 hospitalizations, and 550,198 outpatient visits. Vaccination is likely to reduce 76% of the overall healthcare burden of rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis in Brazil. At a vaccine price of US$ 7-8 per dose, the cost-effectiveness ratio would be US$ 643 per DALY averted. Rotavirus vaccination can reduce the burden of gastroenteritis due to rotavirus at a reasonable cost-effectiveness ratio.

Impact of a nutritional counseling program on prevention of HAART-related metabolic and morphologic abnormalities

The advent of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) improved HIV infection prognosis. However, adverse metabolic and morphologic effects emerged, highlighting a lack of investigation into the role of nutritional interventions among this population. The present study evaluated the impact of a nutritional counseling program on prevention of morphologic and metabolic changes in patients living with HIV/AIDS receiving HAART. A 12-month randomized clinical trial was conducted with 53 adults of both genders in use of HAART. Subjects were allocated to either an intervention group (IG) or a control group (CG). Nutritional counseling was based on the promotion of a healthy diet pattern. Anthropometrical, biochemical, blood pressure, and food intake variables were assessed on four separate occasions. Sub scapular skin-fold results showed a significant tendency for increase between time 1 (Mean IG = 14.9 mm; CG = 13.6 mm), time 3 (Mean IG = 16.7 mm; CG = 18.2 mm), and time 4 (Mean IG = 16.4 mm; CG = 17.7 mm). Lipid percentage intake presented a greater increase among controls (time 1 mean = 26.3%, time 4 mean = 29.6%) than among IG subjects (time 1 mean = 29.1%, time 4 mean = 28.9%). Moreover, participants allocated to the IG presented an increase in dietetic fiber intake of almost 10 grams. The proposed nutritional counseling program proved to be effective in improving diet by reducing fat consumption and increasing fiber intake.

The impact of maternal cortisol concentrations on child arterial elasticity

Epidemiological studies suggest that glucocorticoid excess in the fetus may contribute to the pathophysiology of cardiovascular diseases in adulthood. However, the impact of maternal glucocorticoid on the cardiovascular system of the offspring has not been much explored in studies involving humans, especially in childhood. The objective of this study was to assess the influence of maternal cortisol concentrations on child arterial elasticity. One hundred and thirty pregnant women followed from 1997 to 2000, and respective children 5-7 years of age followed from 2004 to 2006 were included in the study. Maternal cortisol was determined in saliva by an enzyme immunoassay utilizing the mean concentration of nine samples of saliva. Arterial elasticity was assessed by the large artery elasticity index (LAEI; the capacitive elasticity of large arteries) by recording radial artery pulse wave, utilizing the equipment HDI/PulseWave CR-2000 Cardiovascular Profiling System (R). The nutritional status of the children was determined by the body mass index (BMI). Insulin concentration was assessed by chemiluminescence, and insulin resistance by the homeostasis model assessment. Blood glucose, total cholesterol and fractions (LDL-c and HDL-c) and triglyceride concentrations were determined by automated enzymatic methods. The association between maternal cortisol and child arterial elasticity was assessed by multivariate linear regression analysis. There was a statistically significant association between maternal cortisol and LAEI (P=0.02), controlling for birth weight, age, BMI and HDL-c of the children. This study suggests that exposure to higher glucocorticoid concentrations in the prenatal period is associated to lower arterial elasticity in childhood, an earlier cardiovascular risk marker.

Impact of biomass burning aerosols on precipitation in the Amazon: A modeling case study

A study of the potential role of aerosols in modifying clouds and precipitation is presented using a numerical atmospheric model. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud size distribution properties taken in the southwestern Amazon region during the transition from dry to wet seasons were used as guidelines to define the microphysical parameters for the simulations. Numerical simulations were carried out using the Brazilian Development on Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, and the results presented considerable sensitivity to changes in these parameters. High CCN concentrations, typical of polluted days, were found to result in increases or decreases in total precipitation, depending on the level of pollution used as a reference, showing a complexity that parallels the aerosol-precipitation interaction. Our results show that on the grids evaluated, higher CCN concentrations reduced low-to-moderate rainfall rates and increased high rainfall rates. The principal consequence of the increased pollution was a change from a warm to a cold rain process, which affected the maximum and overall mean accumulated precipitation. Under polluted conditions, cloud cover diminished, allowing greater amounts of solar radiation to reach the surface. Aerosol absorption of radiation in the lower layers of the atmosphere delayed convective evolution but produced higher maximum rainfall rates due to increased instability. In addition, the intensity of the surface sensible heat flux, as well as that of the latent heat flux, was reduced by the lower temperature difference between surface and air, producing greater energy stores at the surface.