Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

Rearing and Colonization of Lutzomyia evansi (Diptera: Psychodidae), a Vector of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Colombia

The sandfly Lutzomyia evansi from a focus of visceral leishmaniasis in northern Colombia was reared and maintained under laboratory conditions for five generations. The average time for total development was 41.8 days (range = 35.1- 49.6) at 25 oC and 89-95% of relative humidity. The mean number of eggs laid was lower in laboratory bred females either in pots (13.2 eggs/female) or vials (29.9 eggs/female) than in wild caught females (33.4 eggs/female). Immature mortality, mainly due to fungal and mite contamination, was higher during the first two instars than in the remaining immature stages. Adults were robust and healthy although difficult to feed on hamster or chick skin membrane. In summary, Lu. evansi is a colonizable species but requires specific conditions.

Studies on the Bacillus sphaericus Larvicidal Activity against Malarial Vector Species in Amazonia

In this work, bioassays were carried out in laboratory conditions (average temperature 26 ± 2ºC) to test ten strains of Bacillus sphaericus, isolated from Brazilian soils against third instar larvae from anopheline species recorded as malaria vectors in Amazonian - Anopheles nuneztovari and An. darlingi. With the former mosquito, three strains - S2, S20 and S46 showed relative activity, in 24 and 48 hr exposure to the B. spahericus strains. With the latter only the S2 and S20 were effective in the 48 hr reading. The studied strains that showed the most adequate response in the Amazonian region were S2 and S20 showing broader and more efficient results. Therefore, S2 was the most effective when the 24 and 48 hr readings were considered, because it showed the greatest relative activity values.

A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

Eladeb : un outil d'auto-évaluation des besoins

Eladeb est un instrument d'auto-évaluation des difficultés psychosociales et des besoins d'aide de patients psychiatriques. Basé sur une procédure de tri de cartes figuratives, l'outil se démarque des questionnaires et entretiens structurés présents dans l'évaluation psychométrique clinique, en proposant une activité ludique qui laisse aussi un large espace de dialogue pour l'expression qualitative des difficultés et des besoins. Les expériences conduites sur le terrain montrent qu'il est bien accepté par les patients et les professionnels. Après une brève présentation de l'instrument, cet article expose une vignette clinique ainsi que le témoignage de son utilisation dans le cadre d'une fonda~ion spécialisée dans le suivi de patients psychiatriques.

Role of defensins and cathelicidin LL37 in auto-immune and auto-inflammatory diseases.

Defensins and cathelicidins are anti-microbial peptides (AMPs) that act as natural antibiotics and are part of the innate immune defence in many species. We consider human defensins and LL37, the only human member of the cathelicidin family. In particular, we refer to the human alpha-defensins called human neutrophil peptides (HNP1 through 4), which are produced by neutrophils, HD5 and HD6, mainly expressed in Paneth cells of intestine, the human beta-defensins HBD1, HBD2 and HBD3, synthesized by epithelial cells and LL37, which is located in granulocytes, but is also produced by epithelial cells of the skin, lungs, and gut. In the last years, the study of AMPs activity and regulation has allowed to understand the important role of these peptides not only in the innate defence mechanisms against bacteria, viruses, fungi, but also in the regulation of immune cell activation and migration. Complementary studies have disclosed a role for AMPs in modulating many physiological processes that involve non-immune cells, such as activation of wound healing, angiogenesis, cartilage remodeling. Due to the pleiotropic tasks of these peptides, many of them are now being discovered to contribute to immune pathology of chronic diseases that affect skin, gut, joints; this is supported by many examples of immune-mediated pathologies in which their expression is disregulated. In this article we review the current literature that suggests a role for human defensins and LL37 in pathogenic mechanisms of several chronic diseases that are considered of auto-immune or auto-inflammatory origin.

La régression tumorale n'est pas un facteur de risque d'atteinte du ganglion sentinelle dans les mélanomes fins (indice de Breslow < or = 1 mm) [Tumour regression is not predictive for higher risk of sentinel node involvement in thin melanomas (Breslow thickness < or = 1 mm)]

Background: Thin melanomas (Breslow thickness <= 1 mm) are considered highly curable. The aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation between histological tumour regression and sentinel lymph node (SLN) involvement in thin melanomas. Patients and methods: This was a retrospective single-centre study of 34 patients with thin melanomas undergoing SLN biopsy between April 1998 and January 2005. Results: The study included 14 women and 20 men of mean age 56.3 years. Melanomas were located on the neck (n = 3), soles (n = 4), trunk (n = 13) and extremities (n = 14). Pathological examination showed 25 SSM, four acral lentiginous melanomas, three in situ melanomas, one nodular melanoma and one unclassified melanoma with a mean Breslow thickness of 0.57 mm. Histological tumour regression was observed in 26 over 34 cases and ulceration was found in one case. Clark levels were as follows: I (n = 3), II (n = 20), III (n = 9), IV (n = 2). Growth phase was available in 15 cases (seven radial and eight vertical). Mitotic rates, available in 24 cases, were: 0 (n = 9), 1 (n = 11), 2 (n = 2), 3 (n = 1), 6 (n = 1). One patient with histological tumour regression (2.9% of cases and 3.8% of cases with regressing tumours) had a metastatic SLN. One patient negative for SLN had a lung relapse and died of the disease. Mean follow-up was 26.2 months. Conclusion: The results of the present study and the analysis of the literature show that histological regression of the primary tumour does not seem predictive of higher risk of SLN involvement in thin melanomas. This suggests that screening for SLN is not indicated in thin melanomas, even those with histological regression.

Effects of Non-Susceptible Hosts on the Infection with Trypanosoma cruzi of the Vector Triatoma infestans: an Experimental Model

We tested experimentally the effects of the presence of non-susceptible hosts on the infection with Trypanosoma cruzi of the vector Triatoma infestans. The experiment consisted in two treatments: with chickens, including two chickens (non-susceptible hosts) and two infected guinea pigs (susceptible hosts), and without chickens, including only two infected guinea pigs. The hosts were held unrestrained in individual metal cages inside a closed tulle chamber. A total of 200 uninfected T. infestans third instar nymphs were liberated in each replica, collected on day 14, and examined for infection and blood meal sources on day 32-36. The additional presence of chickens relative to infected guinea pigs: (a) significantly modified the spatial distribution of bugs; (b) increased significantly the likelihoods of having a detectable blood meal on any host and molting to the next instar; (c) did not affect the bugs' probability of death by predation; and (d) decreased significantly the overall percentage of T. infestans infected with T. cruzi. The bugs collected from inside or close to the guinea pigs' cages showed a higher infection rate (71-88%) than those collected from the chickens' cages (22-32%). Mixed blood meals on chickens and guinea pigs were detected in 12-21% of bugs. Although the presence of chickens would decrease the overall percentage of infected bugs in short term experiments, the high rate of host change of T. infestans would make this difference fade out if longer exposure times had been provided.

Textural classification of land cover using support vector machines: an empirical comparison with parametric, non parametric and hybrid classifiers in the Bolivian Amazon

Land cover classification is a key research field in remote sensing and land change science as thematic maps derived from remotely sensed data have become the basis for analyzing many socio-ecological issues. However, land cover classification remains a difficult task and it is especially challenging in heterogeneous tropical landscapes where nonetheless such maps are of great importance. The present study aims to establish an efficient classification approach to accurately map all broad land cover classes in a large, heterogeneous tropical area of Bolivia, as a basis for further studies (e.g., land cover-land use change). Specifically, we compare the performance of parametric (maximum likelihood), non-parametric (k-nearest neighbour and four different support vector machines - SVM), and hybrid classifiers, using both hard and soft (fuzzy) accuracy assessments. In addition, we test whether the inclusion of a textural index (homogeneity) in the classifications improves their performance. We classified Landsat imagery for two dates corresponding to dry and wet seasons and found that non-parametric, and particularly SVM classifiers, outperformed both parametric and hybrid classifiers. We also found that the use of the homogeneity index along with reflectance bands significantly increased the overall accuracy of all the classifications, but particularly of SVM algorithms. We observed that improvements in producer’s and user’s accuracies through the inclusion of the homogeneity index were different depending on land cover classes. Earlygrowth/degraded forests, pastures, grasslands and savanna were the classes most improved, especially with the SVM radial basis function and SVM sigmoid classifiers, though with both classifiers all land cover classes were mapped with producer’s and user’s accuracies of around 90%. Our approach seems very well suited to accurately map land cover in tropical regions, thus having the potential to contribute to conservation initiatives, climate change mitigation schemes such as REDD+, and rural development policies.

Role of Anopheles (Kerteszia) bellator as malaria vector in Southeastern Brazil (Diptera: Culicidae)

New research concerning Anopheles bellator in the southeast of the State of São Paulo, Brazil, are reported. Adult females of this mosquito showed remarkable endophily and endophagy which was even greater than An. cruzii. The epidemiological role of this anopheline as a malaria vector is discussed.