3D-Var assimilation of insect-derived Doppler radar radial winds in convective cases using a high resolution model

The assimilation of Doppler radar radial winds for high resolution NWP may improve short term forecasts of convective weather. Using insects as the radar target, it is possible to provide wind observations during convective development. This study aims to explore the potential of these new observations, with three case studies. Radial winds from insects detected by 4 operational weather radars were assimilated using 3D-Var into a 1.5 km resolution version of the Met Office Unified Model, using a southern UK domain and no convective parameterization. The effect on the analysis wind was small, with changes in direction and speed up to 45° and 2 m s−1 respectively. The forecast precipitation was perturbed in space and time but not substantially modified. Radial wind observations from insects show the potential to provide small corrections to the location and timing of showers but not to completely relocate convergence lines. Overall, quantitative analysis indicated the observation impact in the three case studies was small and neutral. However, the small sample size and possible ground clutter contamination issues preclude unequivocal impact estimation. The study shows the potential positive impact of insect winds; future operational systems using dual polarization radars which are better able to discriminate between insects and clutter returns should provided a much greater impact on forecasts.

Testing for spatial autocorrelation: the regressors that make the power disappear

We show that for any sample size, any size of the test, and any weights matrix outside a small class of exceptions, there exists a positive measure set of regression spaces such that the power of the Cli-Ord test vanishes as the autocorrelation increases in a spatial error model. This result extends to the tests that dene the Gaussian power envelope of all invariant tests for residual spatial autocorrelation. In most cases, the regression spaces such that the problem occurs depend on the size of the test, but there also exist regression spaces such that the power vanishes regardless of the size. A characterization of such particularly hostile regression spaces is provided.

Design considerations in the sequential analysis of matched case–control data

A role for sequential test procedures is emerging in genetic and epidemiological studies using banked biological resources. This stems from the methodology's potential for improved use of information relative to comparable fixed sample designs. Studies in which cost, time and ethics feature prominently are particularly suited to a sequential approach. In this paper sequential procedures for matched case–control studies with binary data will be investigated and assessed. Design issues such as sample size evaluation and error rates are identified and addressed. The methodology is illustrated and evaluated using both real and simulated data sets.

Sequential methods for pharmacogenetic studies

A study or experiment can be described as sequential if its design includes one or more interim analyses at which it is possible to stop the study, having reached a definitive conclusion concerning the primary question of interest. The potential of the sequential study to terminate earlier than the equivalent fixed sample size study means that, typically, there are ethical and economic advantages to be gained from using a sequential design. These advantages have secured a place for the methodology in the conduct of many clinical trials of novel therapies. Recently, there has been increasing interest in pharmacogenetics: the study of how DNA variation in the human genome affects the safety and efficacy of drugs. The potential for using sequential methodology in pharmacogenetic studies is considered and the conduct of candidate gene association studies, family-based designs and genome-wide association studies within the sequential setting is explored. The objective is to provide a unified framework for the conduct of these types of studies as sequential designs and hence allow experimenters to consider using sequential methodology in their future pharmacogenetic studies.

The design of probiotic studies to substantiate health claims

The EC Regulation No. 1924/2006 on Nutrition and Health claims made on foods has generated considerable debate and concern among scientists and industry. At the time of writing, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has not approved any probiotic claims despite numerous human trials and meta-analyses showing evidence of beneficial effects. On 29th and 30th September 2010, ten independent, academic scientists with a documented record in probiotic research, met to discuss designs for future probiotic studies to demonstrate health benefits for gut and immune function. The expert panel recommended the following: (i) always formulate a precise and concrete hypothesis, and appropriate goals and parameters before starting a trial; (ii) ensure trials have sufficient sample size, such that they are adequately powered to reach statistically significant conclusions, either supporting or rejecting the a priori hypothesis, taking into account adjustment for multiple testing (this might necessitate more than one recruitment site); (iii) ensure trials are of appropriate duration; (iv) focus on a single, primary objective and only evaluate multiple parameters when they are hypothesis-driven. The panel agreed that there was an urgent need to better define which biomarkers are considered valuable for substantiation of a health claim. As a first step, the panel welcomed the publication on the day of the meeting of EFSA's draft guidance document on immune and gut health, although it came too late for study designs and dossiers to be adjusted accordingly. New validated biomarkers need to be identified in order to properly determine the range of physiological functions influenced by probiotics. In addition, validated biomarkers reflecting risk factors for disease, are required for article 14 claims (EC Regulation No. 1924/2006). Finally, the panel concluded that consensus among scientists is needed to decide appropriate clinical endpoints for trials.

The effectiveness of non-executive directors in Chinese state-owned enterprises

Purpose – The primary aim of this paper is to examine whether boards of directors with independent members function as effective corporate governance mechanisms in Chinese State-Owned Enterprises(SOEs), by analysing four characteristics of non-executive directors (NEDs) that impact on their effectiveness, namely their degree of independence, information, incentive, and competence. Design/methodology/approach – Being exploratory in nature, the research uses qualitative methods for data collection. It is based on an interpretivist perspective of social sciences, analysing and explaining the factors that influence the effectiveness of NEDs. Findings – The findings indicate that the NED system is weak in China as a result of the concentrated ownership structure, unique business culture, intervention of controlling shareholders and the lack of understanding of the benefits brought by NEDs. Research limitations/implications – The paper examines the salient features of and challenges to the system of NEDs of SOEs in present-day China. It provides an understanding of how the various perceptions of the board, gathered from in-depth interviews of corporate directors, leads to new interpretations of board effectiveness. The research, however, is limited owing to a relatively small sample size and the sensitive nature of the information collected. Originality/value – The study aims to fill gaps in the literature and contribute to it by assessing the “real” views and perceptions of NEDs in China in an institutional environment significantly different from that of the USA, the UK and other western economies.

Root phenomics of crops: opportunities and challenges

Reliable techniques for screening large numbers of plants for root traits are still being developed, but include aeroponic, hydroponic and agar plate systems. Coupled with digital cameras and image analysis software, these systems permit the rapid measurement of root numbers, length and diameter in moderate ( typically <1000) numbers of plants. Usually such systems are employed with relatively small seedlings, and information is recorded in 2D. Recent developments in X-ray microtomography have facilitated 3D non-invasive measurement of small root systems grown in solid media, allowing angular distributions to be obtained in addition to numbers and length. However, because of the time taken to scan samples, only a small number can be screened (typically<10 per day, not including analysis time of the large spatial datasets generated) and, depending on sample size, limited resolution may mean that fine roots remain unresolved. Although agar plates allow differences between lines and genotypes to be discerned in young seedlings, the rank order may not be the same when the same materials are grown in solid media. For example, root length of dwarfing wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) lines grown on agar plates was increased by similar to 40% relative to wild-type and semi-dwarfing lines, but in a sandy loam soil under well watered conditions it was decreased by 24-33%. Such differences in ranking suggest that significant soil environment-genotype interactions are occurring. Developments in instruments and software mean that a combination of high-throughput simple screens and more in-depth examination of root-soil interactions is becoming viable.

Cognitive behaviour therapy for low self-esteem: A preliminary randomized controlled trial in a primary care setting

Background and Objectives Low self-esteem (LSE) is associated with psychiatric disorder, and is distressing and debilitating in its own right. Hence, it is frequent target for treatment in cognitive behavioural interventions, yet it has rarely been the primary focus for intervention. This paper reports on a preliminary randomized controlled trial of cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for LSE using Fennell’s (1997) cognitive conceptualisation and transdiagnostic treatment approach ( [Fennell, 1997] and [Fennell, 1999]). Methods Twenty-two participants were randomly allocated to either immediate treatment (IT) (n = 11) or to a waitlist condition (WL) (n = 11). Treatment consisted of 10 sessions of individual CBT accompanied by workbooks. Participants allocated to the WL condition received the CBT intervention once the waitlist period was completed and all participants were followed up 11 weeks after completing CBT. Results The IT group showed significantly better functioning than the WL group on measures of LSE, overall functioning and depression and had fewer psychiatric diagnoses at the end of treatment. The WL group showed the same pattern of response to CBT as the group who had received CBT immediately. All treatment gains were maintained at follow-up assessment. Limitations The sample size is small and consists mainly of women with a high level of educational attainment and the follow-up period was relatively short. Conclusions These preliminary findings suggest that a focused, brief CBT intervention can be effective in treating LSE and associated symptoms and diagnoses in a clinically representative group of individuals with a range of different and co-morbid disorders.

Accelerated loss of alpine glaciers in the Kodar Mountains, south-eastern Siberia

The recession of mountain glaciers around the world has been linked to anthropogenic climate change and small glaciers (e.g. < 2 km2) are thought to be particularly vulnerable, with reports of their disappearance from several regions. However, the response of small glaciers to climate change can be modulated by non-climatic factors such as topography and debris cover and there remain a number of regions where their recent change has evaded scrutiny. This paper presents results of the first multi-year remote sensing survey of glaciers in the Kodar Mountains, the only glaciers in SE Siberia, which we compare to previous glacier inventories from this continental setting that reported total glacier areas of 18.8 km2 in ca. 1963 (12.6 km2 of exposed ice) and 15.5 km2 in 1974 (12 km2 of exposed ice). Mapping their debris-covered termini is difficult but delineation of debris-free ice on Landsat imagery reveals 34 glaciers with a total area of 11.72 ± 0.72 km2 in 1995, followed by a reduction to 9.53 ± 0.29 km2 in 2001 and 7.01 ± 0.23 km2 in 2010. This represents a ~ 44% decrease in exposed glacier ice between ca. 1963 and 2010, but with 40% lost since 1995 and with individual glaciers losing as much as 93% of their exposed ice. Thus, although continental glaciers are generally thought to be less sensitive than their maritime counterparts, a recent acceleration in shrinkage of exposed ice has taken place and we note its coincidence with a strong summer warming trend in the region initiated at the start of the 1980s. Whilst smaller and shorter glaciers have, proportionally, tended to shrink more rapidly, we find no statistically significant relationship between shrinkage and elevation characteristics, aspect or solar radiation. This is probably due to the small sample size, limited elevation range, and topographic setting of the glaciers in deep valleys-heads. Furthermore, many of the glaciers possess debris-covered termini and it is likely that the ablation of buried ice is lagging the shrinkage of exposed ice, such that a growth in the proportion of debris cover is occurring, as observed elsewhere. If recent trends continue, we hypothesise that glaciers could evolve into a type of rock glacier within the next few decades, introducing additional complexity in their response and delaying their potential demise.

Quantification of UV-B flux through time using UV-B-absorbing compounds contained in fossil Pinus sporopollenin

• UV-B radiation currently represents c. 1.5% of incoming solar radiation. However, significant changes are known to have occurred in the amount of incoming radiation both on recent and on geological timescales. Until now it has not been possible to reconstruct a detailed measure of UV-B radiation beyond c. 150 yr ago. • Here, we studied the suitability of fossil Pinus spp. pollen to record variations in UV-B flux through time. In view of the large size of the grain and its long fossil history, we hypothesized that this grain could provide a good proxy for recording past variations in UV-B flux. • Two key objectives were addressed: to determine whether there was, similar to other studied species, a clear relationship between UV-B-absorbing compounds in the sporopollenin of extant pollen and the magnitude of UV-B radiation to which it had been exposed; and to determine whether these compounds could be extracted from a small enough sample size of fossil pollen to make reconstruction of a continuous record through time a realistic prospect. • Preliminary results indicate the excellent potential of this species for providing a quantitative record of UV-B through time. Using this technique, we present the first record of UV-B flux during the last 9500 yr from a site near Bergen, Norway.

Candidate genes for obesity-susceptibility show enriched association within a large genome-wide association study for BMI

Before the advent of genome-wide association studies (GWASs), hundreds of candidate genes for obesity-susceptibility had been identified through a variety of approaches. We examined whether those obesity candidate genes are enriched for associations with body mass index (BMI) compared with non-candidate genes by using data from a large-scale GWAS. A thorough literature search identified 547 candidate genes for obesity-susceptibility based on evidence from animal studies, Mendelian syndromes, linkage studies, genetic association studies and expression studies. Genomic regions were defined to include the genes ±10 kb of flanking sequence around candidate and non-candidate genes. We used summary statistics publicly available from the discovery stage of the genome-wide meta-analysis for BMI performed by the genetic investigation of anthropometric traits consortium in 123 564 individuals. Hypergeometric, rank tail-strength and gene-set enrichment analysis tests were used to test for the enrichment of association in candidate compared with non-candidate genes. The hypergeometric test of enrichment was not significant at the 5% P-value quantile (P = 0.35), but was nominally significant at the 25% quantile (P = 0.015). The rank tail-strength and gene-set enrichment tests were nominally significant for the full set of genes and borderline significant for the subset without SNPs at P < 10(-7). Taken together, the observed evidence for enrichment suggests that the candidate gene approach retains some value. However, the degree of enrichment is small despite the extensive number of candidate genes and the large sample size. Studies that focus on candidate genes have only slightly increased chances of detecting associations, and are likely to miss many true effects in non-candidate genes, at least for obesity-related traits.

Early modern Oxford bindings in twenty-first century markup

Purpose – The Bodleian Binders Book contains nearly 150 pages of seventeenth century library records, revealing information about the binders used by the library and the thousands of bindings they produced. The purpose of this paper is to explore a pilot project to survey and record bindings information contained in the Binders Book. Design/methodology/approach – A sample size of seven pages (91 works, 65 identifiable bindings) to develop a methodology for surveying and recording bindings listed in the manuscript. To create a successful product that would be useful to bindings researchers, it addressed questions of bindings terminology and the role of the library in the knowledge creation process within the context that text encoding is changing the landscape of library functions. Text encoding formats were examined, and a basic TEI (Text Encoding Initiative) transcription was produced. This facilitates tagging of names and titles and the display of transcriptions with text images. Findings – Encoding was found not only to make the manuscript content more accessible, but to allow for the construction of new knowledge: characteristic Oxford binding traits were revealed and bindings were matched to binders. Plans for added functionality were formed. Originality/value – This research presents a “big picture” analysis of Oxford bindings as a result of text encoding and the foundation for qualitative and statistical analysis. It exemplifies the benefits of interdisciplinary methods – in this case from Digital Humanities – to enhance access to and interpretation of specialist materials and the library's provenance record.

Are power calculations useful? A multicentre neuroimaging study

There are now many reports of imaging experiments with small cohorts of typical participants that precede large-scale, often multicentre studies of psychiatric and neurological disorders. Data from these calibration experiments are sufficient to make estimates of statistical power and predictions of sample size and minimum observable effect sizes. In this technical note, we suggest how previously reported voxel-based power calculations can support decision making in the design, execution and analysis of cross-sectional multicentre imaging studies. The choice of MRI acquisition sequence, distribution of recruitment across acquisition centres, and changes to the registration method applied during data analysis are considered as examples. The consequences of modification are explored in quantitative terms by assessing the impact on sample size for a fixed effect size and detectable effect size for a fixed sample size. The calibration experiment dataset used for illustration was a precursor to the now complete Medical Research Council Autism Imaging Multicentre Study (MRC-AIMS). Validation of the voxel-based power calculations is made by comparing the predicted values from the calibration experiment with those observed in MRC-AIMS. The effect of non-linear mappings during image registration to a standard stereotactic space on the prediction is explored with reference to the amount of local deformation. In summary, power calculations offer a validated, quantitative means of making informed choices on important factors that influence the outcome of studies that consume significant resources.

Identifying trends in domestic electricity consumption in Botswana

Data on electricity consumption patterns relating to different end uses in domestic houses in Botswana is virtually non-existent, despite the fact that the total electricity consumption patterns are available. This can be attributed to the lack of measured and quantified data and in other instances the lack of modern technology to perform such investigations. This paper presents findings from initial studies that are envisaged to bridge the gap. Electricity consumption patterns of 73 domestic households across three cities have been studied. This was carried out through a questionnaire survey, calculated national metering data and electricity measurements. All together nine appliance groups were identified. The results showed the mean electricity consumption for the households considering the calculated consumption from bills and the survey to be t = 4.23; p < 0.000067, two-tailed. The findings of this paper focus on a relatively small sample size (73). It would therefore not be wise to draw sweeping conclusions from the analysis or to make statements that would be aimed at influencing policies. However, the results presented forms a formidable base for further research, which is currently on going.

An investigation into knowledge acquisition idiosyncrasies in Ghanaian universities

Purpose This paper aims to fill the research and knowledge gap in knowledge management studies in Ghana. Knowledge acquisition is one of the unexploited areas in knowledge management literature, especially in the Ghanaian context. This study tries to ascertain the factors affecting knowledge acquisition in Ghanaian universities. Design/methodology/approach The study used the quantitative approach. The cross-sectional survey was adopted as the research design. A questionnaire consisting of Likert scale questions was used to collect data from the respondents. The items and the constructs were derived from the extant literature. The questionnaire was sent to 350 respondents, out of which 250 were returned fully completed. Data were quantitatively analysed using descriptive methods and factor analysis. Findings This study provides empirical evidence about the factors affecting knowledge acquisition in Ghanaian universities. Findings from the study show that programme content, lecturers’ competence, student academic background and attitude and facilities for teaching and learning influence knowledge acquisition in Ghanaian universities. Research limitations/implications Although the study seeks to generalize the findings, this should be cautiously done, as some scholars have advocated for large sample size. Nonetheless, there are some studies that have used sample size less than the one used in this study. Practical implications The study takes notice of the need for Ghanaian universities to use modern facilities and infrastructures such as electronic libraries and information technology equipment and also provide reading rooms to enhance teaching and learning. Originality/value Studies looking at knowledge acquisition in Ghanaian universities are virtually non-existent, and this study provides empirical findings on the factors affecting knowledge acquisition in Ghanaian universities.