991 resultados para uncertainty-functions


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We analyze the effects of capital income taxation on long-run growth in a stochastic, two-period overlapping generations economy. Endogenous growth is driven by a positive externality of physical capital in the production sector that makes firms exhibit an aggregate technology in equilibrium. We distinguish between capital income and labor income, and between attitudes towards risk and intertemporal substitution of consumption. We show necessary and sufficient conditions such that i) increments in the capital income taxation lead to higher equilibrium growth rates, and ii) the effect of changes in the capital income tax rate on the equilibrium growth may be of opposite signs in stochastic and in deterministic economies. Such a sign reversal is shown to be more likely depending on i) how the intertemporal elasticity of substitution compares to one, and ii) the size of second- period labor supply. Numerical simulations show that for reasonable values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, a sign reversal shows up only for implausibly high values of the second- period’s labor supply. The conclusion is that deterministic OLG economies are a good approximation of the effect of taxes on the equilibrium growth rate as in Smith (1996).

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Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.

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Energy functions (or characteristic functions) and basic equations for ferroelectrics in use today are given by those for ordinary dielectrics in the physical and mechanical communications. Based on these basic equations and energy functions, the finite element computation of the nonlinear behavior of the ferroelectrics has been carried out by several research groups. However, it is difficult to process the finite element computation further after domain switching, and the computation results are remarkably deviating from the experimental results. For the crack problem, the iterative solution of the finite element calculation could not converge and the solutions for fields near the crack tip oscillate. In order to finish the calculation smoothly, the finite element formulation should be modified to neglect the equivalent nodal load produced by spontaneous polarization gradient. Meanwhile, certain energy functions for ferroelectrics in use today are not compatible with the constitutive equations of ferroelectrics and need to be modified. This paper proposes a set of new formulae of the energy functions for ferroelectrics. With regard to the new formulae of the energy functions, the new basic equations for ferroelectrics are derived and can reasonably explain the question in the current finite element analysis for ferroelectrics.

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“Why does overfishing persist in the face of regulation?” The author argues that over fishing,a fundamental cause of the crisis facing our oceans, is the result of the failure of our fishing management agencies (ultimately our politicians and communities) to embrace a small suite of powerful tools (more correctly strategic approaches) which have been developed to account for uncertainty. Broad success in managing fisheries to achieve sustainability goals will only come if these tools are enthusiastically applied. This will not happen until organisational cultures within fishery management agencies undergo a major shift leading to an asset-based biodiversity conservation, rather than resource exploitation, to be placed at the centre of ocean governance.This thesis examines these issues in the context of case studies covering regional, national and provincial (State) fishery management agencies. With the exception of the case study of a regional fishery (the southern ocean krill fishery) all case studies are drawn from Australian experiences. The central recommendation of the thesis is that fishery management agencies, worldwide, should be replaced by biodiversity asset management agencies.