855 resultados para trade-offs
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Acknowledgments We thank A. B. Duthie, S. Losdat, and M. E. Wolak for useful discussions and comments and the European Research Council for funding. We also thank the two reviewers, whose suggestions greatly improved the manuscript.
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Acknowledgments We thank A. B. Duthie, S. Losdat, and M. E. Wolak for useful discussions and comments and the European Research Council for funding. We also thank the two reviewers, whose suggestions greatly improved the manuscript.
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The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do not represent those of a particular governmental agency or interagency body. This analysis was initiated at a Global Carbon Project meeting on NETs in Laxenburg, Austria, in April 2013 and contributes to the MaGNET program (http://www.cger.nies.go.jp/gcp/magnet.html). G.P.P. was supported by the Norwegian Research Council (236296). C.D.J. was supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). J.G.C. acknowledges support from the Australian Climate Change Science Program. E.Ka. and Y.Y. were supported by the ERTDF (S-10) from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.
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É amplamente aceite que a produtividade do Homem na execução de tarefas repetitivas aumenta à medida que as mesmas vão sendo efetuadas sucessivamente. Daqui se depreende o porquê de ser muito comum ouvir-se a célebre expressão de que “é a prática que leva à perfeição”. Na gestão de projetos, é costume fazer-se a alusão a esta convicção natural designando-a por efeito de aprendizagem. Reconhecendo a sua importância, esta dissertação terá como questão central o problema da gestão de projetos repetitivos, num contexto em que a possibilidade dos mesmos serem executados em paralelo coexiste com a possibilidade de colher os benefícios resultantes do efeito de aprendizagem. De facto, entrar em linha de conta com o fator aprendizagem poderá contribuir decisivamente para melhorar as estimativas de duração e custo inerentes à execução de vários projetos repetitivos sucessivamente, beneficiando a precisão dos processos de orçamentação e calendarização e, em última instância, promovendo a competitividade negocial das empresas junto dos seus parceiros de negócio/clientes. Este último aspeto torna-se essencial seja qual for a estratégia de negócio que a empresa prossiga. Sendo claro o interesse deste tema, para concretizar o objetivo desta investigação, foi utilizado um novo modelo de programação matemática multiobjetivo, desenvolvido por Gomes da Silva & Carreira (2016), que considera explicitamente a possibilidade de analisar os trade-offs estratégicos entre tempo, custo e qualidade, incidindo simultaneamente sobre o efeito de aprendizagem. Neste modelo, o gestor de projetos terá de determinar o número de equipas que irá executar cada atividade dos vários projetos repetitivos. Esta decisão implica, naturalmente, consequências diretas nas três dimensões referidas anteriormente e é da sua interação tipicamente conflituante que advém a complexidade deste problema. Devido à complexidade do modelo, foram desenvolvidas e aplicadas quatro heurísticas que têm por base algumas regras de prioridade, através das quais se pretendeu gerar aproximações à fronteira de Pareto do problema. As heurísticas foram posteriormente implementadas em dois exemplos específicos, de modo a ilustrar a sua aplicação, e foi possível verificar a sua relevância e capacidade para gerarem uma boa aproximação da fronteira de Pareto. Assim sendo, é necessária investigação adicional, no sentido de averiguar se os resultados aqui alcançados se mantêm válidos para outro tipo de redes e parâmetros.
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Cumulon is a system aimed at simplifying the development and deployment of statistical analysis of big data in public clouds. Cumulon allows users to program in their familiar language of matrices and linear algebra, without worrying about how to map data and computation to specific hardware and cloud software platforms. Given user-specified requirements in terms of time, monetary cost, and risk tolerance, Cumulon automatically makes intelligent decisions on implementation alternatives, execution parameters, as well as hardware provisioning and configuration settings -- such as what type of machines and how many of them to acquire. Cumulon also supports clouds with auction-based markets: it effectively utilizes computing resources whose availability varies according to market conditions, and suggests best bidding strategies for them. Cumulon explores two alternative approaches toward supporting such markets, with different trade-offs between system and optimization complexity. Experimental study is conducted to show the efficiency of Cumulon's execution engine, as well as the optimizer's effectiveness in finding the optimal plan in the vast plan space.
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Forests change with changes in their environment based on the physiological responses of individual trees. These short-term reactions have cumulative impacts on long-term demographic performance. For a tree in a forest community, success depends on biomass growth to capture above- and belowground resources and reproductive output to establish future generations. Here we examine aspects of how forests respond to changes in moisture and light availability and how these responses are related to tree demography and physiology.
First we address the long-term pattern of tree decline before death and its connection with drought. Increasing drought stress and chronic morbidity could have pervasive impacts on forest composition in many regions. We use long-term, whole-stand inventory data from southeastern U.S. forests to show that trees exposed to drought experience multiyear declines in growth prior to mortality. Following a severe, multiyear drought, 72% of trees that did not recover their pre-drought growth rates died within 10 years. This pattern was mediated by local moisture availability. As an index of morbidity prior to death, we calculated the difference in cumulative growth after drought relative to surviving conspecifics. The strength of drought-induced morbidity varied among species and was correlated with species drought tolerance.
Next, we investigate differences among tree species in reproductive output relative to biomass growth with changes in light availability. Previous studies reach conflicting conclusions about the constraints on reproductive allocation relative to growth and how they vary through time, across species, and between environments. We test the hypothesis that canopy exposure to light, a critical resource, limits reproductive allocation by comparing long-term relationships between reproduction and growth for trees from 21 species in forests throughout the southeastern U.S. We found that species had divergent responses to light availability, with shade-intolerant species experiencing an alleviation of trade-offs between growth and reproduction at high light. Shade-tolerant species showed no changes in reproductive output across light environments.
Given that the above patterns depend on the maintenance of transpiration, we next developed an approach for predicting whole-tree water use from sap flux observations. Accurately scaling these observations to tree- or stand-levels requires accounting for variation in sap flux between wood types and with depth into the tree. We compared different models with sap flux data to test the hypotheses that radial sap flux profiles differ by wood type and tree size. We show that radial variation in sap flux is dependent on wood type but independent of tree size for a range of temperate trees. The best-fitting model predicted out-of-sample sap flux observations and independent estimates of sapwood area with small errors, suggesting robustness in new settings. We outline a method for predicting whole-tree water use with this model and include computer code for simple implementation in other studies.
Finally, we estimated tree water balances during drought with a statistical time-series analysis. Moisture limitation in forest stands comes predominantly from water use by the trees themselves, a drought-stand feedback. We show that drought impacts on tree fitness and forest composition can be predicted by tracking the moisture reservoir available to each tree in a mass balance. We apply this model to multiple seasonal droughts in a temperate forest with measurements of tree water use to demonstrate how species and size differences modulate moisture availability across landscapes. As trees deplete their soil moisture reservoir during droughts, a transpiration deficit develops, leading to reduced biomass growth and reproductive output.
This dissertation draws connections between the physiological condition of individual trees and their behavior in crowded, diverse, and continually-changing forest stands. The analyses take advantage of growing data sets on both the physiology and demography of trees as well as novel statistical techniques that allow us to link these observations to realistic quantitative models. The results can be used to scale up tree measurements to entire stands and address questions about the future composition of forests and the land’s balance of water and carbon.
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Alors que les activités anthropiques font basculer de nombreux écosystèmes vers des régimes fonctionnels différents, la résilience des systèmes socio-écologiques devient un problème pressant. Des acteurs locaux, impliqués dans une grande diversité de groupes — allant d’initiatives locales et indépendantes à de grandes institutions formelles — peuvent agir sur ces questions en collaborant au développement, à la promotion ou à l’implantation de pratiques plus en accord avec ce que l’environnement peut fournir. De ces collaborations répétées émergent des réseaux complexes, et il a été montré que la topologie de ces réseaux peut améliorer la résilience des systèmes socio-écologiques (SSÉ) auxquels ils participent. La topologie des réseaux d’acteurs favorisant la résilience de leur SSÉ est caractérisée par une combinaison de plusieurs facteurs : la structure doit être modulaire afin d’aider les différents groupes à développer et proposer des solutions à la fois plus innovantes (en réduisant l’homogénéisation du réseau), et plus proches de leurs intérêts propres ; elle doit être bien connectée et facilement synchronisable afin de faciliter les consensus, d’augmenter le capital social, ainsi que la capacité d’apprentissage ; enfin, elle doit être robuste, afin d’éviter que les deux premières caractéristiques ne souffrent du retrait volontaire ou de la mise à l’écart de certains acteurs. Ces caractéristiques, qui sont relativement intuitives à la fois conceptuellement et dans leur application mathématique, sont souvent employées séparément pour analyser les qualités structurales de réseaux d’acteurs empiriques. Cependant, certaines sont, par nature, incompatibles entre elles. Par exemple, le degré de modularité d’un réseau ne peut pas augmenter au même rythme que sa connectivité, et cette dernière ne peut pas être améliorée tout en améliorant sa robustesse. Cet obstacle rend difficile la création d’une mesure globale, car le niveau auquel le réseau des acteurs contribue à améliorer la résilience du SSÉ ne peut pas être la simple addition des caractéristiques citées, mais plutôt le résultat d’un compromis subtil entre celles-ci. Le travail présenté ici a pour objectifs (1), d’explorer les compromis entre ces caractéristiques ; (2) de proposer une mesure du degré auquel un réseau empirique d’acteurs contribue à la résilience de son SSÉ ; et (3) d’analyser un réseau empirique à la lumière, entre autres, de ces qualités structurales. Cette thèse s’articule autour d’une introduction et de quatre chapitres numérotés de 2 à 5. Le chapitre 2 est une revue de la littérature sur la résilience des SSÉ. Il identifie une série de caractéristiques structurales (ainsi que les mesures de réseaux qui leur correspondent) liées à l’amélioration de la résilience dans les SSÉ. Le chapitre 3 est une étude de cas sur la péninsule d’Eyre, une région rurale d’Australie-Méridionale où l’occupation du sol, ainsi que les changements climatiques, contribuent à l’érosion de la biodiversité. Pour cette étude de cas, des travaux de terrain ont été effectués en 2010 et 2011 durant lesquels une série d’entrevues a permis de créer une liste des acteurs de la cogestion de la biodiversité sur la péninsule. Les données collectées ont été utilisées pour le développement d’un questionnaire en ligne permettant de documenter les interactions entre ces acteurs. Ces deux étapes ont permis la reconstitution d’un réseau pondéré et dirigé de 129 acteurs individuels et 1180 relations. Le chapitre 4 décrit une méthodologie pour mesurer le degré auquel un réseau d’acteurs participe à la résilience du SSÉ dans lequel il est inclus. La méthode s’articule en deux étapes : premièrement, un algorithme d’optimisation (recuit simulé) est utilisé pour fabriquer un archétype semi-aléatoire correspondant à un compromis entre des niveaux élevés de modularité, de connectivité et de robustesse. Deuxièmement, un réseau empirique (comme celui de la péninsule d’Eyre) est comparé au réseau archétypique par le biais d’une mesure de distance structurelle. Plus la distance est courte, et plus le réseau empirique est proche de sa configuration optimale. La cinquième et dernier chapitre est une amélioration de l’algorithme de recuit simulé utilisé dans le chapitre 4. Comme il est d’usage pour ce genre d’algorithmes, le recuit simulé utilisé projetait les dimensions du problème multiobjectif dans une seule dimension (sous la forme d’une moyenne pondérée). Si cette technique donne de très bons résultats ponctuellement, elle n’autorise la production que d’une seule solution parmi la multitude de compromis possibles entre les différents objectifs. Afin de mieux explorer ces compromis, nous proposons un algorithme de recuit simulé multiobjectifs qui, plutôt que d’optimiser une seule solution, optimise une surface multidimensionnelle de solutions. Cette étude, qui se concentre sur la partie sociale des systèmes socio-écologiques, améliore notre compréhension des structures actorielles qui contribuent à la résilience des SSÉ. Elle montre que si certaines caractéristiques profitables à la résilience sont incompatibles (modularité et connectivité, ou — dans une moindre mesure — connectivité et robustesse), d’autres sont plus facilement conciliables (connectivité et synchronisabilité, ou — dans une moindre mesure — modularité et robustesse). Elle fournit également une méthode intuitive pour mesurer quantitativement des réseaux d’acteurs empiriques, et ouvre ainsi la voie vers, par exemple, des comparaisons d’études de cas, ou des suivis — dans le temps — de réseaux d’acteurs. De plus, cette thèse inclut une étude de cas qui fait la lumière sur l’importance de certains groupes institutionnels pour la coordination des collaborations et des échanges de connaissances entre des acteurs aux intérêts potentiellement divergents.
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Ocean acidification (OA) is predicted to play a major role in shaping species biogeography and marine biodiversity over the next century. We tested the effect of medium-term exposure to OA (pH 8.00, 7.30 and 6.70 for 30 d) on acid-base balance in the decapod crab Necora puber-a species that is known to possess good extracellular buffering ability during short-term exposure to hypercapnic conditions. To determine if crabs undergo physiological trade-offs in order to buffer their haemolymph, we characterised a number of fundamental physiological functions, i.e. metabolic rate, tolerance to heat, carapace and chelae [Ca2+] and [Mg2+], haemolymph [Ca2+] and [Mg2+], and immune response in terms of lipid peroxidation. Necora puber was able to buffer changes to extracellular pH over 30 d exposure to hypercapnic water, with no evidence of net shell dissolution, thus demonstrating that HCO3- is actively taken up from the surrounding water. In addition, tolerance to heat, carapace mineralization, and aspects of immune response were not affected by hypercapnic conditions. In contrast, whole-animal O2uptake significantly decreased with hypercapnia, while significant increases in haemolymph [Ca2+] and [Mg2+] and chelae [Mg2+] were observed with hypercapnia. Our results confirm that most physiological functions in N. puber are resistant to low pH/hypercapnia over a longer period than previously investigated, although such resistance comes at the expenses of metabolic rates, haemolymph chemistry and chelae mineralization.
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Waterways have many more ties with society than as a medium for the transportation of goods alone. Waterway systems offer society many kinds of socio-economic value. Waterway authorities responsible for management and (re)development need to optimize the public benefits for the investments made. However, due to the many trade-offs in the system these agencies have multiple options for achieving this goal. Because they can invest resources in a great many different ways, they need a way to calculate the efficiency of the decisions they make. Transaction cost theory, and the analysis that goes with it, has emerged as an important means of justifying efficiency decisions in the economic arena. To improve our understanding of the value-creating and coordination problems for waterway authorities, such a framework is applied to this sector. This paper describes the findings for two cases, which reflect two common multi trade-off situations for waterway (re)development. Our first case study focuses on the Miami River, an urban revitalized waterway. The second case describes the Inner Harbour Navigation Canal in New Orleans, a canal and lock in an industrialized zone, in need of an upgrade to keep pace with market developments. The transaction cost framework appears to be useful in exposing a wide variety of value-creating opportunities and the resistances that come with it. These insights can offer infrastructure managers guidance on how to seize these opportunities.
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Explicit and integrated inclusion of ecosystem services (ESs) and their interrelationships can improve the quality of strategic plans and decision-making processes. However, there is little systematic analysis of how ES interrelationships are framed in policy language, particularly in coastal planning discourse. The objective of this paper is therefore to present a four-step method, based on content analysis, to assess ES interrelationships in coastal strategic planning documents. The method consists of: 1) selecting strategic plans; 2) identifying ESs; 3) identifying drivers, ESs and their effects; and 4) constructing relational diagrams. The four-step method is applied to a case of Jiaozhou Bay in China, demonstrating its capacity of identifying which drivers and ES trade-offs and synergies are formulated in coastal strategic plans. The method is helpful to identify overlooked ES interrelationships, inform temporal and spatial issues, and assess the continuity of plans' attention to interrelationships. The main methodological contributions are discussed by emphasizing its broad scope of drivers and ESs and an explicit distinction among the cause of relationships. The developed method also has the potential of cross-fertilizing other kinds of approaches and facilitating practical planning processes.
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We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.
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We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.
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Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) are computerized systems for learning-by-doing. These systems provide students with immediate and customized feedback on learning tasks. An ITS typically consists of several modules that are connected to each other. This research focuses on the distribution of the ITS module that provides expert knowledge services. For the distribution of such an expert knowledge module we need to use an architectural style because this gives a standard interface, which increases the reusability and operability of the expert knowledge module. To provide expert knowledge modules in a distributed way we need to answer the research question: ‘How can we compare and evaluate REST, Web services and Plug-in architectural styles for the distribution of the expert knowledge module in an intelligent tutoring system?’. We present an assessment method for selecting an architectural style. Using the assessment method on three architectural styles, we selected the REST architectural style as the style that best supports the distribution of expert knowledge modules. With this assessment method we also analyzed the trade-offs that come with selecting REST. We present a prototype and architectural views based on REST to demonstrate that the assessment method correctly scores REST as an appropriate architectural style for the distribution of expert knowledge modules.
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Cette thèse tente de comprendre l’impact des restructurations des entreprises multinationales sur les stratégies syndicales. Les acteurs syndicaux locaux sont-ils déterminés par l’appartenance à des régimes nationaux et à des contingences organisationnelles ou peuvent-ils influencer des décisions objectives comme les restructurations ? Cette recherche s’insère dans une problématique large qui fait la jonction entre la mondialisation économique sur une base continentale, la réorganisation productive des entreprises multinationales et l’action syndicale. Au plan théorique, nous confrontons trois grandes approches analytiques, à savoir : le néo-institutionnalisme et les structures d’opportunités ; l’économie politique critique et la question du pouvoir syndical ; la géographie économique critique mettant de l’avant les contingences, l’encastrement et l’espace concurrentiel. Sur la base de ces trois familles, nous présentons un modèle d’analyse multidisciplinaire. Au plan méthodologique, cette thèse est structurée autour de quatre études de cas locales qui ont subi des menaces de restructurations. Cette collecte a été effectuée dans deux pays (la France et le Canada) et dans un secteur particulier (les équipementiers automobiles). Trois sources qualitatives forment le cœur empirique de cette thèse : des statistiques descriptives, des documents de sources secondaires et des entretiens semi-dirigés (44), principalement avec des acteurs syndicaux. L’analyse intra et inter régime national éclaire plusieurs aspects de la question des stratégies syndicales en contexte de restructurations. Les principales contributions de cette thèse touchent : 1. l’impact des facteurs relationnels et des ressources de pouvoir développées par les syndicats locaux sur les structures d’opportunités institutionnelles; 2. l’importance des aspects « cognitifs » et d’envisager le pouvoir de manière multi-niveaux; 3. l’importance de l’encastrement social et des dynamiques relationnelles entre syndicats et patronats; 4. l’influence de la concurrence internationale/nationale/régionale/locale dans le secteur des équipementiers automobiles; et 5. l’importance des arbitrages et des relations entre les acteurs de l’entreprise par rapport à la théorie de la contingence pour comprendre les marges structurelles des syndicats locaux. Notre recherche invite les acteurs sociaux à repenser leur action dans le cadre des restructurations. En particulier, les syndicats locaux se doivent d’explorer de nouveaux répertoires stratégiques pour répondre aux nombreux défis que posent le changement économique et les restructurations.
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The present PhD thesis develops and applies an evaluative methodology suited to the evaluation of policy and governance in complex policy areas. While extensive literatures exist on the topic of policy evaluation, governance evaluation has received less attention. At the level of governance, policymakers confront choices between different policy tools and governance arrangements in their attempts to solve policy problems, including variants of hierarchy, networks and markets. There is a need for theoretically-informed empirical research to inform decision-making at this level. To that end, the PhD develops an approach to evaluation by combining postpositivist policy analysis with heterodox political economy. Postpositivist policy analysis recognises that policy problems are often contested, that choices between policy options can involve significant trade-offs and that knowledge of policy options is itself dispersed and fragmented. Similarly, heterodox economics combines a concept of incommensurable values with an appreciation of the strengths and weaknesses of different institutional arrangements to realise them. A central concept of the field is coordination, which orientates policy analysis to the interactions of stakeholders in policy processes. The challenge of governance is to select the appropriate policy tools and arrangements which facilitate coordination. Via a postpositivist exploration of stakeholder ‘frames’, it is possible to ascertain whether coordination is occurring and to identify problems if it is not. Evaluative claims of governance can be made where arrangements can be shown to frustrate the realisation of shared values and objectives. The research makes a contribution to knowledge in a number of ways a) a distinctive evaluative approach that could be applied to other areas of health and public policy b) greater appreciation of the strengths and weaknesses of different forms of evidence in public policy and in particular health policy and c) concrete policy proposals for the governance and organisation of diabetes services, with implications for the NHS more broadly.