Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling

Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

Distance software: design and analysis of distance sampling surveys for estimating population size

1. Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating the size or density of biological populations. Many distance sampling designs and most analyses use the software Distance. 2. We briefly review distance sampling and its assumptions, outline the history, structure and capabilities of Distance, and provide hints on its use. 3. Good survey design is a crucial prerequisite for obtaining reliable results. Distance has a survey design engine, with a built-in geographic information system, that allows properties of different proposed designs to be examined via simulation, and survey plans to be generated. 4. A first step in analysis of distance sampling data is modeling the probability of detection. Distance contains three increasingly sophisticated analysis engines for this: conventional distance sampling, which models detection probability as a function of distance from the transect and assumes all objects at zero distance are detected; multiple-covariate distance sampling, which allows covariates in addition to distance; and mark–recapture distance sampling, which relaxes the assumption of certain detection at zero distance. 5. All three engines allow estimation of density or abundance, stratified if required, with associated measures of precision calculated either analytically or via the bootstrap. 6. Advanced analysis topics covered include the use of multipliers to allow analysis of indirect surveys (such as dung or nest surveys), the density surface modeling analysis engine for spatial and habitat-modeling, and information about accessing the analysis engines directly from other software. 7. Synthesis and applications. Distance sampling is a key method for producing abundance and density estimates in challenging field conditions. The theory underlying the methods continues to expand to cope with realistic estimation situations. In step with theoretical developments, state-of- the-art software that implements these methods is described that makes the methods accessible to practicing ecologists.

Landscape-Genetic Analysis of Population Structure in the Texas Gray Fox Oral Rabies Vaccination Zone

In west-central Texas, USA, abatement efforts for the gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) rabies epizootic illustrate the difficulties inherent in large-scale management of wildlife disease. The rabies epizootic has been managed through a cooperative oral rabies vaccination program (ORV) since 1996. Millions of edible baits containing a rabies vaccine have been distributed annually in a 16-km to 24-km zone around the perimeter of the epizootic, which encompasses a geographic area >4 x 105 km2. The ORV program successfully halted expansion of the epizootic into metropolitan areas but has not achieved the ultimate goal of eradication. Rabies activity in gray fox continues to occur periodically outside the ORV zone, preventing ORV zone contraction and dissipation of the epizootic. We employed a landscape-genetic approach to assess gray fox population structure and dispersal in the affected area, with the aim of assisting rabies management efforts. No unique genetic clusters or population boundaries were detected. Instead, foxes were weakly structured over the entire region in an isolation by distance pattern. Local subpopulations appeared to be genetically non-independent over distances >30 km, implying that long-distance movements or dispersal may have been common in the region. We concluded that gray foxes in west-central Texas have a high potential for long-distance rabies virus trafficking. Thus, a 16-km to 24-km ORV zone may be too narrow to contain the fox rabies epizootic. Continued expansion of the ORV zone, although costly, may be critical to the long-term goal of eliminating the Texas fox rabies virus variant from the United States.

MATERIAL MODELING AND ANALYSIS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REALISTIC BLAST HEADFORM

Blast traumatic brain injury (BTBI) has become an important topic of study because of the increase of such incidents, especially due to the recent growth of improvised explosive devices (IEDs). This thesis discusses a project in which laboratory testing of BTBI was made possible by performing blast loading on experimental models simulating the human head. Three versions of experimental models were prepared – one having a simple geometry and the other two having geometry similar to a human head. For developing the head models, three important parts of the head were considered for material modeling and analysis – the skin, skull and brain. The materials simulating skin, skull and brain went through many testing procedures including dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA). For finding a suitable brain simulant, several materials were tested under low and high frequencies. Step response analysis, rheometry and DMA tests were performed on materials such as water based gels, oil based mixtures and silicone gels cured at different temperatures. The gelatins and silicone gels showed promising results toward their use as brain surrogate materials. Temperature degradation tests were performed on gelatins, indicating the fast degradation of gelatins at room temperature. Silicone gels were much more stable compared to the water based gels. Silicone gels were further processed using a thinner-type additive gel to bring the dynamic modulus values closer to those of human brain matter. The obtained values from DMA were compared to the values for human brain as found in literature. Then a silicone rubber brain mold was prepared to give the brain model accurate geometry. All the components were put together to make the entire head model. A steel mount was prepared to attach the head for testing at the end of the shock tube. Instrumentation was implemented in the head model to obtain effective results for understanding more about the possible mechanisms of BTBI. The final head model was named the Realistic Explosive Dummy Head or the “RED Head.” The RED Head offered potential for realistic experimental testing in blast loading conditions by virtue of its material properties and geometrical accuracy.

Phylogeographic analysis in populations of Protonectarina sylveirae (Saussure, 1854) (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Polistinae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Trophic structure on the West Antarctic Peninsula shelf: Detritivory and benthic inertia revealed by delta(13)C and delta(15)N analysis

Summer bloom-derived phytodetritus settles rapidly to the seafloor on the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) continental shelf, where it appears to degrade relatively slowly, forming a sediment ""food bank"" for benthic detritivores. We used stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes to examine sources and sinks of particulate organic material (POM) reaching the WAP shelf benthos (550-625 m depths), and to explore trophic linkages among the most abundant benthic megafauna. We measured delta(13)C and delta(15)N values in major megafaunal taxa (n = 26) and potential food sources, including suspended and sinking POM, ice algae, sediment organic carbon, phytodetritus, and macrofaunal polychaetes. The range in delta(13)C values (> 14 parts per thousand) of suspended POM was considerably broader than in sedimentary POC, where little temporal variability in stable isotope signatures was observed. While benthic megafauna also exhibited a broad range of VC values, organic carbon entering the benthic food web appeared to be derived primarily from phytoplankton production, with little input from ice algae. One group of organisms, primarily deposit-feeders, appeared to rely on fresh phytodetritus recovered from the sediments, and sediment organic material that had been reworked by sediment microbes. A second group of animals, including many mobile invertebrate and fish predators, appeared to utilize epibenthic or pelagic food resources such as zooplankton. One surface-deposit-feeding holothurian (Protelpidia murrayi) exhibited seasonal variability in stable isotope values of body tissue, while other surface- and subsurface-deposit-feeders showed no evidence of seasonal variability in food source or trophic position. Detritus from phytoplankton blooms appears to be the primary source of organic material for the detritivorous benthos; however, seasonal variability in the supply of this material is not mirrored in the sediments, and only to a minor degree in the benthic fauna. This pattern suggests substantial inertia in benthic-pelagic coupling, whereby the sediment ecosystem integrates long-term variability in production processes in the water column above. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A mixed model QTL analysis for sugarcane multiple-harvest-location trial data

Sugarcane-breeding programs take at least 12 years to develop new commercial cultivars. Molecular markers offer a possibility to study the genetic architecture of quantitative traits in sugarcane, and they may be used in marker-assisted selection to speed up artificial selection. Although the performance of sugarcane progenies in breeding programs are commonly evaluated across a range of locations and harvest years, many of the QTL detection methods ignore two- and three-way interactions between QTL, harvest, and location. In this work, a strategy for QTL detection in multi-harvest-location trial data, based on interval mapping and mixed models, is proposed and applied to map QTL effects on a segregating progeny from a biparental cross of pre-commercial Brazilian cultivars, evaluated at two locations and three consecutive harvest years for cane yield (tonnes per hectare), sugar yield (tonnes per hectare), fiber percent, and sucrose content. In the mixed model, we have included appropriate (co)variance structures for modeling heterogeneity and correlation of genetic effects and non-genetic residual effects. Forty-six QTLs were found: 13 QTLs for cane yield, 14 for sugar yield, 11 for fiber percent, and 8 for sucrose content. In addition, QTL by harvest, QTL by location, and QTL by harvest by location interaction effects were significant for all evaluated traits (30 QTLs showed some interaction, and 16 none). Our results contribute to a better understanding of the genetic architecture of complex traits related to biomass production and sucrose content in sugarcane.

Variations in Structure Explain the Viscometric Behavior of AOT Microemulsions at Low Water/AOT Molar Ratios

The viscosity of AOT/water/decane water-in-oil microemulsions exhibits a well-known maximum as a function of water/AOT molar ratio, which is usually attributed to increased attractions among nearly spherical droplets. The maximum can be removed by adding salt or by changing the oil to CCl4. Systematic small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) measurements have been used to monitor the structure of the microemulsion droplets in the composition regime where the maximum appears. On increasing the droplet concentration, the scattering intensity is found to scale with the inverse of the wavevector, a behavior which is consistent with cylindrical structures. The inverse wavevector scaling is not observed when the molar ratio is changed, moving the system away from the value corresponding to the viscosity maximum. It is also not present in the scattering from systems containing enough added salt to essentially eliminate the viscosity maximum. An asymptotic analysis of the SAXS data, complemented by some quantitative modeling, is consistent with cylindrical growth of droplets as their concentration is increased. Such elongated structures are familiar from related AOT systems in which the sodium counterion has been exchanged for a divalent one. However, the results of this study suggest that the formation of non-spherical aggregates at low molar ratios is an intrinsic property of AOT.

Insights into the morphology of the Serra da Cangalha impact structure from geophysical modeling

Forward modeling is commonly applied to gravity field data of impact structures to determine the main gravity anomaly sources. In this context, we have developed 2.5-D gravity models of the Serra da Cangalha impact structure for the purpose of investigating geological bodies/structures underneath the crater. Interpretation of the models was supported by ground magnetic data acquired along profiles, as well as by high resolution aeromagnetic data. Ground magnetic data reveal the presence of short-wavelength anomalies probably related to shallow magnetic sources that could have been emplaced during the cratering process. Aeromagnetic data show that the basement underneath the crater occurs at an average depth of about 1.9 km, whereas in the region beneath the central uplift it is raised to 0.51 km below the current surface. These depths are also supported by 2.5-D gravity models showing a gentle relief for the basement beneath the central uplift area. Geophysical data were used to provide further constraints for numeral modeling of crater formation that provided important information on the structural modification that affected the rocks underneath the crater, as well as on shock-induced modifications of target rocks. The results showed that the morphology is consistent with the current observations of the crater and that Serra da Cangalha was formed by a meteorite of approximately 1.4 km diameter striking at 12 km s-1.

Mathematical modeling and analysis of the particle interactions in the direct filtration using the colloidal theory

This work used the colloidal theory to describe forces and energy interactions of colloidal complexes in the water and those formed during filtration run in direct filtration. Many interactions of particle energy profiles between colloidal surfaces for three geometries are presented here in: spherical, plate and cylindrical; and four surface interactions arrangements: two cylinders, two spheres, two plates and a sphere and a plate. Two different situations were analyzed, before and after electrostatic destabilization by action of the alum sulfate as coagulant in water studies samples prepared with kaolin. In the case were used mathematical modeling by extended DLVO theory (from the names: Derjarguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek) or XDLVO, which include traditional approach of the electric double layer (EDL), surfaces attraction forces or London-van der Waals (LvdW), esteric forces and hydrophobic forces, additionally considering another forces in colloidal system, like molecular repulsion or Born Repulsion and Acid-Base (AB) chemical function forces from Lewis.

Infant mortality in Brazil, 1980-2000: A spatial panel data analysis

Background: Infant mortality is an important measure of human development, related to the level of welfare of a society. In order to inform public policy, various studies have tried to identify the factors that influence, at an aggregated level, infant mortality. The objective of this paper is to analyze the regional pattern of infant mortality in Brazil, evaluating the effect of infrastructure, socio-economic, and demographic variables to understand its distribution across the country. Methods: Regressions including socio-economic and living conditions variables are conducted in a structure of panel data. More specifically, a spatial panel data model with fixed effects and a spatial error autocorrelation structure is used to help to solve spatial dependence problems. The use of a spatial modeling approach takes into account the potential presence of spillovers between neighboring spatial units. The spatial units considered are Minimum Comparable Areas, defined to provide a consistent definition across Census years. Data are drawn from the 1980, 1991 and 2000 Census of Brazil, and from data collected by the Ministry of Health (DATASUS). In order to identify the influence of health care infrastructure, variables related to the number of public and private hospitals are included. Results: The results indicate that the panel model with spatial effects provides the best fit to the data. The analysis confirms that the provision of health care infrastructure and social policy measures (e. g. improving education attainment) are linked to reduced rates of infant mortality. An original finding concerns the role of spatial effects in the analysis of IMR. Spillover effects associated with health infrastructure and water and sanitation facilities imply that there are regional benefits beyond the unit of analysis. Conclusions: A spatial modeling approach is important to produce reliable estimates in the analysis of panel IMR data. Substantively, this paper contributes to our understanding of the physical and social factors that influence IMR in the case of a developing country.

Modeling the gluon propagator in Landau gauge: Lattice estimates of pole masses and dimension-two condensates

We present an analytic description of numerical results for the Landau-gauge SU(2) gluon propagator D(p(2)), obtained from lattice simulations (in the scaling region) for the largest lattice sizes to date, in d = 2, 3 and 4 space-time dimensions. Fits to the gluon data in 3d and in 4d show very good agreement with the tree-level prediction of the refined Gribov-Zwanziger (RGZ) framework, supporting a massive behavior for D(p(2)) in the infrared limit. In particular, we investigate the propagator's pole structure and provide estimates of the dynamical mass scales that can be associated with dimension-two condensates in the theory. In the 2d case, fitting the data requires a noninteger power of the momentum p in the numerator of the expression for D(p(2)). In this case, an infinite-volume-limit extrapolation gives D(0) = 0. Our analysis suggests that this result is related to a particular symmetry in the complex-pole structure of the propagator and not to purely imaginary poles, as would be expected in the original Gribov-Zwanziger scenario.

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

Gaussian deconvolution: a useful method for a form-free modeling of scattering data from mono- and multilayered planar systems

A new method for analysis of scattering data from lamellar bilayer systems is presented. The method employs a form-free description of the cross-section structure of the bilayer and the fit is performed directly to the scattering data, introducing also a structure factor when required. The cross-section structure (electron density profile in the case of X-ray scattering) is described by a set of Gaussian functions and the technique is termed Gaussian deconvolution. The coefficients of the Gaussians are optimized using a constrained least-squares routine that induces smoothness of the electron density profile. The optimization is coupled with the point-of-inflection method for determining the optimal weight of the smoothness. With the new approach, it is possible to optimize simultaneously the form factor, structure factor and several other parameters in the model. The applicability of this method is demonstrated by using it in a study of a multilamellar system composed of lecithin bilayers, where the form factor and structure factor are obtained simultaneously, and the obtained results provided new insight into this very well known system.

Analysis of nonlinear dynamics of vocal folds using high-speed video observation and biomechanical modeling

Primary voice production occurs in the larynx through vibrational movements carried out by vocal folds. However, many problems can affect this complex system resulting in voice disorders. In this context, time-frequency-shape analysis based on embedding phase space plots and nonlinear dynamics methods have been used to evaluate the vocal fold dynamics during phonation. For this purpose, the present work used high-speed video to record the vocal fold movements of three subjects and extract the glottal area time series using an image segmentation algorithm. This signal is used for an optimization method which combines genetic algorithms and a quasi-Newton method to optimize the parameters of a biomechanical model of vocal folds based on lumped elements (masses, springs and dampers). After optimization, this model is capable of simulating the dynamics of recorded vocal folds and their glottal pulse. Bifurcation diagrams and phase space analysis were used to evaluate the behavior of this deterministic system in different circumstances. The results showed that this methodology can be used to extract some physiological parameters of vocal folds and reproduce some complex behaviors of these structures contributing to the scientific and clinical evaluation of voice production. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.