Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Un modelo de riesgo de crédito basado en opciones compuestas con barrera. Aplicación al mercado continuo español

In this work the valuation methodology of compound option written on a downand-out call option, developed by Ericsson and Reneby (2003), has been applied to deduce a credit risk model. It is supposed that the firm has a debt structure with two maturity dates and that the credit event takes place when the assets firm value falls under a determined level called barrier. An empirical application of the model for 105 firms of Spanish continuous market is carried out. For each one of them its value in the date of analysis, the volatility and the critical value are obtained and from these, the default probability to short and long-term and the implicit probability in the two previous probabilities are deduced. The results are compared with the ones obtained from the Geskemodel (1977).

Resting-state temporal synchronization networks emerge from connectivity topology and heterogeneity.

Spatial patterns of coherent activity across different brain areas have been identified during the resting-state fluctuations of the brain. However, recent studies indicate that resting-state activity is not stationary, but shows complex temporal dynamics. We were interested in the spatiotemporal dynamics of the phase interactions among resting-state fMRI BOLD signals from human subjects. We found that the global phase synchrony of the BOLD signals evolves on a characteristic ultra-slow (<0.01Hz) time scale, and that its temporal variations reflect the transient formation and dissolution of multiple communities of synchronized brain regions. Synchronized communities reoccurred intermittently in time and across scanning sessions. We found that the synchronization communities relate to previously defined functional networks known to be engaged in sensory-motor or cognitive function, called resting-state networks (RSNs), including the default mode network, the somato-motor network, the visual network, the auditory network, the cognitive control networks, the self-referential network, and combinations of these and other RSNs. We studied the mechanism originating the observed spatiotemporal synchronization dynamics by using a network model of phase oscillators connected through the brain's anatomical connectivity estimated using diffusion imaging human data. The model consistently approximates the temporal and spatial synchronization patterns of the empirical data, and reveals that multiple clusters that transiently synchronize and desynchronize emerge from the complex topology of anatomical connections, provided that oscillators are heterogeneous.

Calibration of the century, apsim and ndicea models of decomposition and n mineralization of plant residues in the humid tropics

The aim of this study was to calibrate the CENTURY, APSIM and NDICEA simulation models for estimating decomposition and N mineralization rates of plant organic materials (Arachis pintoi, Calopogonium mucunoides, Stizolobium aterrimum, Stylosanthes guyanensis) for 360 days in the Atlantic rainforest bioma of Brazil. The models´ default settings overestimated the decomposition and N-mineralization of plant residues, underlining the fact that the models must be calibrated for use under tropical conditions. For example, the APSIM model simulated the decomposition of the Stizolobium aterrimum and Calopogonium mucunoides residues with an error rate of 37.62 and 48.23 %, respectively, by comparison with the observed data, and was the least accurate model in the absence of calibration. At the default settings, the NDICEA model produced an error rate of 10.46 and 14.46 % and the CENTURY model, 21.42 and 31.84 %, respectively, for Stizolobium aterrimum and Calopogonium mucunoides residue decomposition. After calibration, the models showed a high level of accuracy in estimating decomposition and N- mineralization, with an error rate of less than 20 %. The calibrated NDICEA model showed the highest level of accuracy, followed by the APSIM and CENTURY. All models performed poorly in the first few months of decomposition and N-mineralization, indicating the need of an additional parameter for initial microorganism growth on the residues that would take the effect of leaching due to rainfall into account.

Key electrophysiological, molecular, and metabolic signatures of sleep and wakefulness revealed in primary cortical cultures.

Although sleep is defined as a behavioral state, at the cortical level sleep has local and use-dependent features suggesting that it is a property of neuronal assemblies requiring sleep in function of the activation experienced during prior wakefulness. Here we show that mature cortical cultured neurons display a default state characterized by synchronized burst-pause firing activity reminiscent of sleep. This default sleep-like state can be changed to transient tonic firing reminiscent of wakefulness when cultures are stimulated with a mixture of waking neurotransmitters and spontaneously returns to sleep-like state. In addition to electrophysiological similarities, the transcriptome of stimulated cultures strikingly resembles the cortical transcriptome of sleep-deprived mice, and plastic changes as reflected by AMPA receptors phosphorylation are also similar. We used our in vitro model and sleep-deprived animals to map the metabolic pathways activated by waking. Only a few metabolic pathways were identified, including glycolysis, aminoacid, and lipids. Unexpectedly large increases in lysolipids were found both in vivo after sleep deprivation and in vitro after stimulation, strongly suggesting that sleep might play a major role in reestablishing the neuronal membrane homeostasis. With our in vitro model, the cellular and molecular consequences of sleep and wakefulness can now be investigated in a dish.

Task 4: Testing Iowa Portland Cement Concrete Mixtures for the AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Procedure, May 2008

The present research project was designed to identify the typical Iowa material input values that are required by the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) for the Level 3 concrete pavement design. It was also designed to investigate the existing equations that might be used to predict Iowa pavement concrete for the Level 2 pavement design. In this project, over 20,000 data were collected from the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) and other sources. These data, most of which were concrete compressive strength, slump, air content, and unit weight data, were synthesized and their statistical parameters (such as the mean values and standard variations) were analyzed. Based on the analyses, the typical input values of Iowa pavement concrete, such as 28-day compressive strength (f’c), splitting tensile strength (fsp), elastic modulus (Ec), and modulus of rupture (MOR), were evaluated. The study indicates that the 28-day MOR of Iowa concrete is 646 + 51 psi, very close to the MEPDG default value (650 psi). The 28-day Ec of Iowa concrete (based only on two available data of the Iowa Curling and Warping project) is 4.82 + 0.28x106 psi, which is quite different from the MEPDG default value (3.93 x106 psi); therefore, the researchers recommend re-evaluating after more Iowa test data become available. The drying shrinkage (εc) of a typical Iowa concrete (C-3WR-C20 mix) was tested at Concrete Technology Laboratory (CTL). The test results show that the ultimate shrinkage of the concrete is about 454 microstrain and the time for the concrete to reach 50% of ultimate shrinkage is at 32 days; both of these values are very close to the MEPDG default values. The comparison of the Iowa test data and the MEPDG default values, as well as the recommendations on the input values to be used in MEPDG for Iowa PCC pavement design, are summarized in Table 20 of this report. The available equations for predicting the above-mentioned concrete properties were also assembled. The validity of these equations for Iowa concrete materials was examined. Multiple-parameters nonlinear regression analyses, along with the artificial neural network (ANN) method, were employed to investigate the relationships among Iowa concrete material properties and to modify the existing equations so as to be suitable for Iowa concrete materials. However, due to lack of necessary data sets, the relationships between Iowa concrete properties were established based on the limited data from CP Tech Center’s projects and ISU classes only. The researchers suggest that the resulting relationships be used by Iowa pavement design engineers as references only. The present study furthermore indicates that appropriately documenting concrete properties, including flexural strength, elastic modulus, and information on concrete mix design, is essential for updating the typical Iowa material input values and providing rational prediction equations for concrete pavement design in the future.

Task 6: Material Thermal Input for Iowa Materials, May 2008

The present research project was designed to determine thermal properties, such as coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) and thermal conductivity, of Iowa concrete pavement materials. These properties are required as input values by the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG). In this project, a literature review was conducted to determine the factors that affect thermal properties of concrete and the existing prediction equations for CTE and thermal conductivity of concrete. CTE tests were performed on various lab and field samples of portland cement concrete (PCC) at the Iowa Department of Transportation and Iowa State University. The variations due to the test procedure, the equipment used, and the consistency of field batch materials were evaluated. The test results showed that the CTE variations due to test procedure and batch consistency were less than 5%, and the variation due to the different equipment was less than 15%. Concrete CTE values were significantly affected by different types of coarse aggregate. The CTE values of Iowa concrete made with limestone+graval, quartzite, dolomite, limestone+dolomite, and limestone were 7.27, 6.86, 6.68, 5.83, and 5.69 microstrain/oF (13.08, 12.35, 12.03, 10.50, and 10.25 microstrain/oC), respectively, which were all higher than the default value of 5.50 microstrain/oF in the MEPDG program. The thermal conductivity of a typical Iowa PCC mix and an asphalt cement concrete (ACC) mix (both with limestone as coarse aggregate) were tested at Concrete Technology Laboratory in Skokie, Illinois. The thermal conductivity was 0.77 Btu/hr•ft•oF (1.33 W/m•K) for PCC and 1.21 Btu/hr•ft•oF (2.09 W/m•K) for ACC, which are different from the default values (1.25 Btu/hr•ft•oF or 2.16 W/m•K for PCC and 0.67 Btu/hr•ft•oF or 1.16 W/m•K for ACC) in the MEPDG program. The investigations onto the CTE of ACC and the effects of concrete materials (such as cementitious material and aggregate types) and mix proportions on concrete thermal conductivity are recommended to be considered in future studies.

Exposition des enfants à la fumée passive: le point sur des campagnes de sensibilisation

Enfants de moins de 10 ans fumant passivement 14 cigarettes ! D'avril 2010 à avril 2011, l'exposition de 148 enfants (81 garçons et 67 filles) a été testée: 10 enfants de moins d'un an, 25 de 1 à 5 ans, 19 de 5 à 10 ans, 30 de 10 à 15 ans et 64 de 15 à 18 ans. 10 d'entre eux sont des fumeurs et la plus jeune de 14 ans fume 10 cigarettes par jour. Leurs parents, ou parfois des jeunes eux-mêmes, ont commandé de manière volontaire, via les sites Internet des CIPRET Valais, Vaud et Genève, un badge MoNIC gratuit. Les résultats quant à l'exposition de ces enfants interpellent et méritent l'attention.Pour l'ensemble des enfants, la concentration moyenne de nicotine dans leur environnement intérieur mesurée via les dispositifs MoNIC est de 0,5 mg/m3, avec des maximums pouvant aller jusqu'à 21 mg/m3. Pour le collectif d'enfants âgés de moins de 10 ans (26 garçons et 28 filles; tous non-fumeurs), la concentration de nicotine n'est pas négligeable (moyenne 0,069 mg/m3, min 0, max 0,583 mg/m3). En convertissant ce résultat en équivalent de cigarettes inhalées passivement, nous obtenons des chiffres allant de 0 à 14 cigarettes par jour* avec une moyenne se situant à 1.6 cig/j. Encore plus surprenant, les enfants de moins d'un an (4 garçons et 6 filles) inhalent passivement, dans le cadre familial, en moyenne 1 cigarette (min 0, max 2.2). Pour les deux autres collectifs: 10-15 ans et 15-18 ans, les valeurs maximales avoisinent les 22 cigarettes. Notons cependant que ce résultat est influencé, ce qui n'est pas le cas des enfants plus jeunes, par le fait que ces jeunes sont également parfois des fumeurs actifs.* Quand la durée d'exposition dépassait 1 jour (8 heures), le nombre d'heures a toujours été divisé par 8 heures. Le résultat obtenu donne l'équivalent de cigarettes fumées passivement en huit heures. Il s'agit de ce fait d'une moyenne, ce qui veut dire que durant cette période les enfants ont pu être exposés irrégulièrement à des valeurs supérieures ou inférieures à cette moyenne. [Auteurs]

Material Thermal Inputs of Iowa Materials for MEPDG, 2011

The thermal properties of concrete materials, such as coeffi cient of thermal expansion (CTE), thermal conductivity, and heat capacity, are required by the MEPDG program as the material inputs for pavement design. However, a limited amount of test data is available on the thermal properties of concrete in Iowa. The default values provided by the MEPDG program may not be suitable for Iowa concrete, since aggregate characteristics have signifi cant infl uence on concrete thermal properties.

Un modelo de riesgo de crédito basado en opciones compuestas con barrera. Aplicación al mercado continuo español

In this work the valuation methodology of compound option written on a downand-out call option, developed by Ericsson and Reneby (2003), has been applied to deduce a credit risk model. It is supposed that the firm has a debt structure with two maturity dates and that the credit event takes place when the assets firm value falls under a determined level called barrier. An empirical application of the model for 105 firms of Spanish continuous market is carried out. For each one of them its value in the date of analysis, the volatility and the critical value are obtained and from these, the default probability to short and long-term and the implicit probability in the two previous probabilities are deduced. The results are compared with the ones obtained from the Geskemodel (1977).

Gastrostomies, PEG, sondes et boutons: pour ne plus les confondre et savoir les gérer!

On confond trop souvent le mode de confection des gastrostomies avec le nom de l'équipement du conduit. Ainsi combien de fois avons-nous été appelés pour avis sur une « PEG » qui en fait était une gastrostomie équipée d'un bouton. Le but de ce travail est de clarifier les problèmes de techniques de gastrostomies chez l'enfant, les équipements à disposition et d'évoquer les problèmes qui s'y rapportent.

Plaidoyer pour une valorisation du jugement clinique dans la profession infirmière : les cas des plaies de pression et des chutes

Plusieurs infirmières pratiquant dans les centres d'hébergement se questionnent sur la pertinence d'utiliser systématiquement certaines échelles de mesure. Elles sont d'avis que l'utilisation ou les modalités entourant l'usage de ces échelles augmentent surtout leur charge de travail et ne contribuent pas toujours à l'amélioration de la qualité des soins. Face à cette préoccupation, la communauté de pratique de la Faculté des sciences infirmières de l'Université Laval sur les soins à l'aîné en centre d'hébergement (CP-FSI) a voulu explorer les fondements à la base des recommandations de ces différents instruments de mesure en l'occurrence l'échelle du risque de plaie de pression de Braden et les échelles d'évaluation des risques de chute. Un examen de la littérature scientifique et l'analyse de données empiriques amènent à la conclusion que l'utilisation systématique de ces échelles alourdit en effet la tâche des infirmières. Qui plus est, le jugement clinique infirmier est équivalent ou supérieur à l'utilisation de ces échelles. La CP-FSI conclut à l'importance de modifier les recommandations sur l'usage systématique de ces échelles et de plutôt valoriser le jugement clinique des infirmières.