Metaheuristhic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Fractional calculus: a survey of useful formulas

This paper presents a survey of useful, established formulas in Fractional Calculus, systematically collected for reference purposes.

Assessing usual dietary intake in complex sample design surveys: the National Dietary Survey

The National Cancer Institute (NCI) method allows the distributions of usual intake of nutrients and foods to be estimated. This method can be used in complex surveys. However, the user must perform additional calculations, such as balanced repeated replication (BRR), in order to obtain standard errors and confidence intervals for the percentiles and mean from the distribution of usual intake. The objective is to highlight adaptations of the NCI method using data from the National Dietary Survey. The application of the NCI method was exemplified analyzing the total energy (kcal) and fruit (g) intake, comparing estimations of mean and standard deviation that were based on the complex design of the Brazilian survey with those assuming simple random sample. Although means point estimates were similar, estimates of standard error using the complex design increased by up to 60% compared to simple random sample. Thus, for valid estimates of food and energy intake for the population, all of the sampling characteristics of the surveys should be taken into account because when these characteristics are neglected, statistical analysis may produce underestimated standard errors that would compromise the results and the conclusions of the survey.

Perceived health in the Portuguese population aged ? 35

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the exploratory relationship between determinants of health, life satisfaction, locus of control, attitudes and behaviors and health related quality of life in an adult population. METHODS Observational study (analytical and cross-sectional) with a quantitative methodological basis. The sample was composed oy 1,214 inhabitants aged ≥ 35 in 31 civil parishes in the County of Coimbra, Portugal, 2011-2012. An anonymous and voluntary health survey was conducted, which collected the following information: demographic, clinical record, health and lifestyle behaviors; health related quality of life (Medical Outcomes Study, Short Form-36); health locus of control; survey of health attitudes and behavior, and quality of life index. Pearson’s Linear Correlation, t-Student, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney; One-way ANOVA; Brown-Forsythe’s F; Kruskal-Wallis; Multiple Comparisons: Tukey (HSD), Games-Howell and Conover were used in the statistical analysis. RESULTS Health related quality of life was shown to be lower in females, in older age groups, in obese/overweight individuals, widows, unassisted, those living alone, living in rural/suburban areas, those who did not work and with a medium-low socioeconomic level. Respondents with poor/very poor self-perceived health (p < 0.0001), with chronic disease (p < 0.0001), who consumed < 3 meals per day (p ≤ 0.01), who were sedentary, who slept ≤ 6 h/day and had smoked for several years revealed the worst health results. Health related quality of life was positively related with a bigger internal locus, with better health attitudes and behaviors (physical exercise, health and nutritional care, length of dependence) and with different areas of life satisfaction. CONCLUSIONS Better health related quality of life was associated with certain social, psychological, family and health characteristics, a satisfactory lifestyle, better socioeconomic conditions and a good internal locus of control over health attitudes and behaviors.

Handling random errors and biases in methods used for short-term dietary assessment

Epidemiological studies have shown the effect of diet on the incidence of chronic diseases; however, proper planning, designing, and statistical modeling are necessary to obtain precise and accurate food consumption data. Evaluation methods used for short-term assessment of food consumption of a population, such as tracking of food intake over 24h or food diaries, can be affected by random errors or biases inherent to the method. Statistical modeling is used to handle random errors, whereas proper designing and sampling are essential for controlling biases. The present study aimed to analyze potential biases and random errors and determine how they affect the results. We also aimed to identify ways to prevent them and/or to use statistical approaches in epidemiological studies involving dietary assessments.

Detection and diagnosis solutions for fault-tolerant VSI

This paper presents solutions for fault detection and diagnosis of two-level, three phase voltage-source inverter (VSI) topologies with IGBT devices. The proposed solutions combine redundant standby VSI structures and contactors (or relays) to improve the fault-tolerant capabilities of power electronics in applications with safety requirements. The suitable combination of these elements gives the inverter the ability to maintain energy processing in the occurrence of several failure modes, including short-circuit in IGBT devices, thus extending its reliability and availability. A survey of previously developed fault-tolerant VSI structures and several aspects of failure modes, detection and isolation mechanisms within VSI is first discussed. Hardware solutions for the protection of power semiconductors with fault detection and diagnosis mechanisms are then proposed to provide conditions to isolate and replace damaged power devices (or branches) in real time. Experimental results from a prototype are included to validate the proposed solutions.

Occupational stress and coping resources in physiotherapists: a survey of physiotherapists in three general hospitals

Objectives - To identify occupational stressors and coping resources in a group of physiotherapists, and to analyse interactions between subjective levels of stress, efficacy in stress resolution and coping resources used by these professionals. Design - A sample of 55 physiotherapists working in three general hospitals in Portugal completed the Coping Resources Inventory for Stress, the Occupational Stressors Inventory and two subjective scales for stress and stress resolution. Main results - Most physiotherapists perceived that they were moderately stressed (19/55, 35%) or stressed (20/55, 36%) due to work, and reported that their efficacy in stress resolution was moderate (25/54, 46%) or efficient (23/54, 42%). Issues related to lack of professional autonomy, lack of organisation in the hierarchical command chain, lack of professional and social recognition, disorganisation in task distribution and interpersonal conflicts with superiors were identified as the main sources of stress. The most frequently used coping resources were social support, stress monitoring, physical health and structuring. Perceived efficacy in stress resolution was inversely related to perceived level of occupational stress (r = −0.61, P < 0.01). Significant correlations were found between several coping resources and the perceived level of stress and efficacy in stress resolution. Associations between problem solving, cognitive restructuring and stress monitoring and both low levels of perceived stress and high levels of perceived efficacy were particularly strong. Implications for practice - The importance of identifying stressors and coping resources related to physiotherapists’ occupational stress, and the need for the development of specific training programmes to cope with stress are supported.

A survey of technologies and applications for climbing robots locomotion and adhesion

The interest in the development of climbing robots has grown rapidly in the last years. Climbing robots are useful devices that can be adopted in a variety of applications, such as maintenance and inspection in the process and construction industries. These systems are mainly adopted in places where direct access by a human operator is very expensive, because of the need for scaffolding, or very dangerous, due to the presence of an hostile environment. The main motivations are to increase the operation efficiency, by eliminating the costly assembly of scaffolding, or to protect human health and safety in hazardous tasks. Several climbing robots have already been developed, and other are under development, for applications ranging from cleaning to inspection of difficult to reach constructions. A wall climbing robot should not only be light, but also have large payload, so that it may reduce excessive adhesion forces and carry instrumentations during navigation. These machines should be capable of travelling over different types of surfaces, with different inclinations, such as floors, walls, or ceilings, and to walk between such surfaces (Elliot et al. (2006); Sattar et al. (2002)). Furthermore, they should be able of adapting and reconfiguring for various environment conditions and to be self-contained. Up to now, considerable research was devoted to these machines and various types of experimental models were already proposed (according to Chen et al. (2006), over 200 prototypes aimed at such applications had been developed in the world by the year 2006). However, we have to notice that the application of climbing robots is still limited. Apart from a couple successful industrialized products, most are only prototypes and few of them can be found in common use due to unsatisfactory performance in on-site tests (regarding aspects such as their speed, cost and reliability). Chen et al. (2006) present the main design problems affecting the system performance of climbing robots and also suggest solutions to these problems. The major two issues in the design of wall climbing robots are their locomotion and adhesion methods. With respect to the locomotion type, four types are often considered: the crawler, the wheeled, the legged and the propulsion robots. Although the crawler type is able to move relatively faster, it is not adequate to be applied in rough environments. On the other hand, the legged type easily copes with obstacles found in the environment, whereas generally its speed is lower and requires complex control systems. Regarding the adhesion to the surface, the robots should be able to produce a secure gripping force using a light-weight mechanism. The adhesion method is generally classified into four groups: suction force, magnetic, gripping to the surface and thrust force type. Nevertheless, recently new methods for assuring the adhesion, based in biological findings, were proposed. The vacuum type principle is light and easy to control though it presents the problem of supplying compressed air. An alternative, with costs in terms of weight, is the adoption of a vacuum pump. The magnetic type principle implies heavy actuators and is used only for ferromagnetic surfaces. The thrust force type robots make use of the forces developed by thrusters to adhere to the surfaces, but are used in very restricted and specific applications. Bearing these facts in mind, this chapter presents a survey of different applications and technologies adopted for the implementation of climbing robots locomotion and adhesion to surfaces, focusing on the new technologies that are recently being developed to fulfill these objectives. The chapter is organized as follows. Section two presents several applications of climbing robots. Sections three and four present the main locomotion principles, and the main "conventional" technologies for adhering to surfaces, respectively. Section five describes recent biological inspired technologies for robot adhesion to surfaces. Section six introduces several new architectures for climbing robots. Finally, section seven outlines the main conclusions.

Wind-CSP short-term coordination by Milp approach

This paper is on the maximization of total profit in a day-ahead market for a price-taker producer needing a short-term scheduling for wind power plants coordination with concentrated solar power plants, having thermal energy storage systems. The optimization approach proposed for the maximization of profit is a mixed-integer linear programming problem. The approach considers not only transmission grid constraints, but also technical operating constraints on both wind and concentrated solar power plants. Then, an improved short-term scheduling coordination is provided due to the more accurate modelling presented in this paper. Computer simulation results based on data for the Iberian wind and concentrated solar power plants illustrate the coordination benefits and show the effectiveness of the approach.

Lack of access and continuity of adult health care: a national population-based survey

OBJECTIVE To describe the lack of access and continuity of health care in adults.METHODS A cross-sectional population-based study was performed on a sample of 12,402 adults aged 20 to 59 years in urban areas of 100 municipalities of 23 states in the five Brazilian geopolitical regions. Barriers to the access and continuity of health care and were investigated based on receiving, needing and seeking health care (hospitalization and accident/emergency care in the last 12 months; care provided by a doctor, by other health professional or home care in the last three months). Based on the results obtained by the description of the sample, a projection is provided for adults living in Brazilian urban areas.RESULTS The highest prevalence of lack of access to health services and to provision of care by health professionals was for hospitalization (3.0%), whilst the lowest prevalence was for care provided by a doctor (1.1%). The lack of access to care provided by other health professionals was 2.0%; to accident and emergency services, 2.1%; and to home care, 2.9%. As for prevalences, the greatest absolute lack of access occurred in emergency care (more than 360,000 adults). The main reasons were structural and organizational problems, such as unavailability of hospital beds, of health professionals, of appointments for the type of care needed and charges made for care.CONCLUSIONS The universal right to health care in Brazil has not yet been achieved. These projections can help health care management in scaling the efforts needed to overcome this problem, such as expanding the infrastructure of health services and the workforce.

The effect of metal transfer stability (spattering) on fume generation, morphology and composition in short-circuit MAG welding

The main objective of this work was to evaluate the hypothesis that the greater transfer stability leads also to less volume of fumes. Using an Ar + 25%CO2 blend as shielding gas and maintaining constant the average current, wire feed speed and welding speed, bead-on-plate welds were carried out with plain carbon steel solid wire. The welding voltage was scanned to progressively vary the transfer stability. Using two conditions of low stability and one with high stability, fume generation was evaluated by means of the AWS F1.2:2006 standard. The influence of these conditions on fume morphology and composition was also verified. A condition with greater transfer stability does not generate less fume quantity, despite the fact that this condition produces fewer spatters. Other factors such as short-circuit current, arcing time, droplet diameters and arc length are the likely governing factors, but in an interrelated way. Metal transfer stability does not influence either the composition or the size/morphology of fume particulates. (c) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How short and light can a simple pendulum be for classroom use?

We compare the period of oscillation of an ideal simple pendulum with the period of a more 'real' pendulum constituted of a rigid sphere and a rigid slender rod. We determine the relative error in the calculation of the local acceleration of gravity if the period of the ideal pendulum is use?d instead of the period of this real pendulum. © 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd..

Robotic manipulators with vibrations: short time fourier transform of fractional spectra

This paper analyzes the signals captured during impacts and vibrations of a mechanical manipulator. In order to acquire and study the signals an experimental setup is implemented. The signals are treated through signal processing tools such as the fast Fourier transform and the short time Fourier transform. The results show that the Fourier spectrum of several signals presents a non integer behavior. The experimental study provides valuable results that can assist in the design of a control system to deal with the unwanted effects of vibrations.

Study on the growth promoting capacity of calf and fetal bovine serum for animal cells "in vitro" II: electrophoretic study and survey on the antiproteolytic activity of pools of calf and fetal bovine serum

Calf serum and fetal bovine serum present great variability as to its growth promoting efficiency (GPE). As supplement of culture media to cultivate cells of animal origin they stimulate the "in vitro" multiplication and maintain cell viability. When fourteen lots of calf sera of variable GPE had the total protein contents as well as the percentages of serum fractions determined, no significant differences that could possibly explain the variability of the GPE were observed. Evaluation of the antiproteolytic activity of nineteen lots of calf serum and eighteen serum lots of younger calves showed that the former exhibited lower antiproteolytic titers (1:40 to 1:80) than the latter (1:80 to 1:160). Twelve lots of fetal bovine serum studied in parallel, showed the highest concentration of antiproteolytic factors, with titers equal to 1:320. Sera of bovine origin, but not fetal sera, are usually heat-inactivated, what was demonstrated to be responsible for the decrease of the antiproteolytic activity of 75% of the lots tested. This could explain the inability of certain heat-inactivated sera in promoting multiplication of some cells "in vitro", as verified with primary monkey kidney cells. The results obtained in this study indicated the convenience of submiting each lot of serum to be introduced in cell culture to previous determination of its characteristics, such as growth promoting efficiency, antiproteolytic activity and also toxicity, absence of extraneous agents, etc., in order to minimize the possibility of using serum lots of questionable quality, thus preventing not only the loss of cell lines, but also undesirable and sometimes expensive delays.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competetive market by a hybrid Pso-Anfis approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.