Cervical cancer precursors and hormonal contraceptive use in HIV-positive women: application of a causal model and semi-parametric estimation methods.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the application of causal inference methods to observational data in the obstetrics and gynecology field, particularly causal modeling and semi-parametric estimation. BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women are at increased risk for cervical cancer and its treatable precursors. Determining whether potential risk factors such as hormonal contraception are true causes is critical for informing public health strategies as longevity increases among HIV-positive women in developing countries. METHODS: We developed a causal model of the factors related to combined oral contraceptive (COC) use and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater (CIN2+) and modified the model to fit the observed data, drawn from women in a cervical cancer screening program at HIV clinics in Kenya. Assumptions required for substantiation of a causal relationship were assessed. We estimated the population-level association using semi-parametric methods: g-computation, inverse probability of treatment weighting, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: We identified 2 plausible causal paths from COC use to CIN2+: via HPV infection and via increased disease progression. Study data enabled estimation of the latter only with strong assumptions of no unmeasured confounding. Of 2,519 women under 50 screened per protocol, 219 (8.7%) were diagnosed with CIN2+. Marginal modeling suggested a 2.9% (95% confidence interval 0.1%, 6.9%) increase in prevalence of CIN2+ if all women under 50 were exposed to COC; the significance of this association was sensitive to method of estimation and exposure misclassification. CONCLUSION: Use of causal modeling enabled clear representation of the causal relationship of interest and the assumptions required to estimate that relationship from the observed data. Semi-parametric estimation methods provided flexibility and reduced reliance on correct model form. Although selected results suggest an increased prevalence of CIN2+ associated with COC, evidence is insufficient to conclude causality. Priority areas for future studies to better satisfy causal criteria are identified.

Computational Methods for Identifying Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy using 12-lead ECG

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a cardiovascular disease where the heart muscle is partially thickened and blood flow is - potentially fatally - obstructed. It is one of the leading causes of sudden cardiac death in young people. Electrocardiography (ECG) and Echocardiography (Echo) are the standard tests for identifying HCM and other cardiac abnormalities. The American Heart Association has recommended using a pre-participation questionnaire for young athletes instead of ECG or Echo tests due to considerations of cost and time involved in interpreting the results of these tests by an expert cardiologist. Initially we set out to develop a classifier for automated prediction of young athletes’ heart conditions based on the answers to the questionnaire. Classification results and further in-depth analysis using computational and statistical methods indicated significant shortcomings of the questionnaire in predicting cardiac abnormalities. Automated methods for analyzing ECG signals can help reduce cost and save time in the pre-participation screening process by detecting HCM and other cardiac abnormalities. Therefore, the main goal of this dissertation work is to identify HCM through computational analysis of 12-lead ECG. ECG signals recorded on one or two leads have been analyzed in the past for classifying individual heartbeats into different types of arrhythmia as annotated primarily in the MIT-BIH database. In contrast, we classify complete sequences of 12-lead ECGs to assign patients into two groups: HCM vs. non-HCM. The challenges and issues we address include missing ECG waves in one or more leads and the dimensionality of a large feature-set. We address these by proposing imputation and feature-selection methods. We develop heartbeat-classifiers by employing Random Forests and Support Vector Machines, and propose a method to classify full 12-lead ECGs based on the proportion of heartbeats classified as HCM. The results from our experiments show that the classifiers developed using our methods perform well in identifying HCM. Thus the two contributions of this thesis are the utilization of computational and statistical methods for discovering shortcomings in a current screening procedure and the development of methods to identify HCM through computational analysis of 12-lead ECG signals.

Randomized Trial for a Mobile Health Approach to Increase Uptake of Cervical Cancer Screening in Tanzania

Background: Largely due to low availability and uptake of screening in low- and middle-income countries, cervical cancer is the second ranked cancer among women in these countries. This is a tragedy because cervical cancer is one of the most preventable carcinomas. This thesis will investigate behaviour change methods, which capitalize on the recent exponential increase in ownership of mobile phones in Tanzania, to increase uptake of cervical cancer screening (CCS) in the Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania. Objectives: 1) To evaluate the effectiveness of behaviour change messages delivered via short message service (SMS) on the uptake of CCS in the Kilimanjaro region; 2) to evaluate the effectiveness of a transportation eVoucher on the uptake of CCS in the Kilimanjaro region; 3) to explore characteristics associated with CCS uptake in the Kilimanjaro region; and 4) to determine the attitudes towards and perceived benefit of behaviour change SMS messages and eVouchers intended to increase uptake of CCS. Methods: In the Kilimanjaro Region, 853 women participated in a randomized controlled trial. Baseline data was collected through self-report through systematic stratified random sampling. Participants were randomized to one of three groups: a control group, a group receiving behaviour change messages delivered via SMS, or a group receiving a travel eVoucher and identical SMS as the SMS group. A fieldworker recorded participants attending screening at the CCS clinics and administered a post-screening survey. The follow-up period was two months from the time of the participant’s enrolment. Logistic regression (both for the combined and stratified data sets) was used to determine associations between the behaviour change interventions, baseline characteristics and cervical cancer screening uptake. Results: All participants receiving SMS messages (SMS or eVoucher group) were more likely to attend cervical cancer screening in comparison with the control group. 83% of participants who attended screening shared the information contained in the messages with others. Conclusions: Behaviour change messages delivered via SMS and transportation eVouchers have the potential to increase uptake of cervical cancer screening in the Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania. Harnessing this potential will require implementing these interventions alongside other methods to achieve maximum impact.

Influence of diabetes on natriuretic peptide thresholds in screening for Stage B heart failure

CONTEXT: Natriuretic peptide (NP) has been shown to be an effective screening tool to identify patients with Stage B heart failure and to have clinical value in preventing heart failure progression. The impact of associated metabolic confounders on the screening utility of NP needs clarification.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of diabetes mellitus (DM) on NP screening for asymptomatic Stage B heart failure.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study population consisted of 1368 asymptomatic patients with cardiovascular risk factors recruited from general practice as part of the STOP-HF trial. B-type NP (BNP) was quantified at point-of-care.

RESULTS: BNP was found to be as accurate for detecting Stage B heart failure in DM patients compared to non-DM patients (AUC 0.75 [0.71,0.78] and 0.77 [0.72,0.82], respectively). However, different BNP thresholds are required to achieve the same level of diagnostic sensitivity in DM compared with non-DM patients. To achieve 80% sensitivity a difference of 5-ng/L lower is required for patients with DM.

CONCLUSION: Although a significantly different BNP threshold is detected for patients with DM, the BNP concentration difference is small and unlikely to warrant a clinically different diagnostic threshold.

Cost-effectiveness of natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care: a report from the STOP-HF (St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure) study

AIMS: Prevention of cardiovascular disease and heart failure (HF) in a cost-effective manner is a public health goal. This work aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of the St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure (STOP-HF) intervention.

METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a substudy of 1054 participants with cardiovascular risk factors [median age 65.8 years, interquartile range (IQR) 57.8:72.4, with 4.3 years, IQR 3.4:5.2, follow-up]. Annual natriuretic peptide-based screening was performed, with collaborative cardiovascular care between specialist physicians and general practitioners provided to patients with BNP levels >50 pg/mL. Analysis of cost per case prevented and cost-effectiveness per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained was performed. The primary clinical endpoint of LV dysfunction (LVD) with or without HF was reduced in intervention patients [odds ratio (OR) 0.60; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.38-0.94; P = 0.026]. There were 157 deaths and/or emergency hospitalizations for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in the control group vs. 102 in the intervention group (OR 0.68; 95% CI 0.49-0.93; P = 0.01). The cost per case of LVD/HF prevented was €9683 (sensitivity range -€843 to €20 210), whereas the cost per MACE prevented was €3471 (sensitivity range -€302 to €7245). Cardiovascular hospitalization savings offset increased outpatient and primary care costs. The cost per QALY gain was €1104 and the intervention has an 88% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of €30 000.

CONCLUSION: Among patients with cardiovascular risk factors, natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care reduced LVD, HF, and MACE, and has a high probability of being cost-effective.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00921960.

Progression of left atrial volume index in a population at risk for heart failure:a substudy of the STOP-HF (St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure) trial

AIMS: Limited data are available concerning the evolution of the left atrial volume index (LAVI) in pre-heart failure (HF) patients. The aim of this study was to investigate clinical characteristics and serological biomarkers in a cohort with risk factors for HF and evidence of serial atrial dilatation.

METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a prospective substudy within the framework of the STOP-HF cohort (NCT00921960) involving 518 patients with risk factors for HF electively undergoing serial clinical, echocardiographic, and natriuretic peptide assessment. Mean follow-up time between assessments was 15 ± 6 months. 'Progressors' (n = 39) were defined as those with serial LAVI change ≥3.5 mL/m(2) (and baseline LAVI between 20 and 34 mL/m(2)). This cut-off was derived from a calculated reference change value above the biological, analytical, and observer variability of serial LAVI measurement. Multivariate analysis identified significant baseline clinical associates of LAVI progression as increased age, beta-blocker usage, and left ventricular mass index (all P < 0.05). Serological biomarkers were measured in a randomly selected subcohort of 30 'Progressors' matched to 30 'Non-progressors'. For 'Progressors', relative changes in matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP9), tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 (TIMP1), and the TIMP1/MMP9 ratio, markers of interstitial remodelling, tracked with changes in LAVI over time (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: Accelerated LAVI increase was found to occur in up to 14% of all pre-HF patients undergoing serial echocardiograms over a relatively short follow-up period. In a randomly selected subcohort of 'Progressors', changes in LAVI were closely linked with alterations in MMP9, TIMP1, and the ratio of these enzymes, a potential aid in highlighting this at-risk group.

Establishing an EGFR mutation screening service for non-small cell lung cancer - sample quality criteria and candidate histological predictors.

INTRODUCTION: EGFR screening requires good quality tissue, sensitivity and turn-around time (TAT). We report our experience of routine screening, describing sample type, TAT, specimen quality (cellularity and DNA yield), histopathological description, mutation result and clinical outcome. METHODS: Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) sections were screened for EGFR mutations (M+) in exons 18-21. Clinical, pathological and screening outcome data were collected for year 1 of testing. Screening outcome alone was collected for year 2. RESULTS: In year 1, 152 samples were tested, most (72%) were diagnostic. TAT was 4.9 days (95%confidence interval (CI)=4.5-5.5). EGFR-M+ prevalence was 11% and higher (20%) among never-smoking women with adenocarcinomas (ADCs), but 30% of mutations occurred in current/ex-smoking men. EGFR-M+ tumours were non-mucinous ADCs and 100% thyroid transcription factor (TTF1+). No mutations were detected in poorly differentiated NSCLC-not otherwise specified (NOS). There was a trend for improved overall survival (OS) among EGFR-M+ versus EGFR-M- patients (median OS=78 versus 17 months). In year 1, test failure rate was 19%, and associated with scant cellularity and low DNA concentrations. However 75% of samples with poor cellularity but representative of tumour were informative and mutation prevalence was 9%. In year 2, 755 samples were tested; mutation prevalence was 13% and test failure only 5.4%. Although samples with low DNA concentration (2.2 ng/μL), the mutation rate was 9.2%. CONCLUSION: Routine epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) screening using diagnostic samples is fast and feasible even on samples with poor cellularity and DNA content. Mutations tend to occur in better-differentiated non-mucinous TTF1+ ADCs. Whether these histological criteria may be useful to select patients for EGFR testing merits further investigation.

A Validation Study for the Use of ROS1 Immunohistochemical Staining in Screening for ROS1 Translocations in Lung Cancer

INTRODUCTION: The presence of ROS proto-oncogene 1, receptor tyrosine kinase gene (ROS1) rearrangements in lung cancers confers sensitivity to ROS kinase inhibitors, including crizotinib. However, they are rare abnormalities (in ∼1% of non-small cell lung carcinomas) that are typically identified by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), and so screening using immunohistochemical (IHC) staining would be both cost- and time-efficient.

METHODS: A cohort of lung tumors negative for other common mutations related to targeted therapies were screened to assess the sensitivity and specificity of IHC staining in detecting ROS1 gene rearrangements, enriched by four other cases first identified by FISH. A review of published data was also undertaken.

RESULTS: IHC staining was 100% sensitive (95% confidence interval: 48-100) and 83% specific (95% confidence interval: 86-100) overall when an h-score higher than 100 was used. Patients with ROS1 gene rearrangements were younger and typically never-smokers, with the tumors all being adenocarcinomas with higher-grade architectural features and focal signet ring morphologic features (two of five). Four patients treated with crizotinib showed a partial response, with three also showing a partial response to pemetrexed. Three of four patients remain alive at 13, 27, and 31 months, respectively.

CONCLUSION: IHC staining can be used to screen for ROS1 gene rearrangements, with patients herein showing a response to crizotinib. Patients with tumors that test positive according to IHC staining but negative according to FISH were also identified, which may have implications for treatment selection.

Prevalence and risk of Down syndrome in monozygotic and dizygotic multiple pregnancies in Europe: implications for prenatal screening

OBJECTIVE: To determine risk of Down syndrome (DS) in multiple relative to singleton pregnancies, and compare prenatal diagnosis rates and pregnancy outcome.

DESIGN: Population-based prevalence study based on EUROCAT congenital anomaly registries.

SETTING: Eight European countries.

POPULATION: 14.8 million births 1990-2009; 2.89% multiple births.

METHODS: DS cases included livebirths, fetal deaths from 20 weeks, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA). Zygosity is inferred from like/unlike sex for birth denominators, and from concordance for DS cases.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Relative risk (RR) of DS per fetus/baby from multiple versus singleton pregnancies and per pregnancy in monozygotic/dizygotic versus singleton pregnancies. Proportion of prenatally diagnosed and pregnancy outcome.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Poisson and logistic regression stratified for maternal age, country and time.

RESULTS: Overall, the adjusted (adj) RR of DS for fetus/babies from multiple versus singleton pregnancies was 0.58 (95% CI 0.53-0.62), similar for all maternal ages except for mothers over 44, for whom it was considerably lower. In 8.7% of twin pairs affected by DS, both co-twins were diagnosed with the condition. The adjRR of DS for monozygotic versus singleton pregnancies was 0.34 (95% CI 0.25-0.44) and for dizygotic versus singleton pregnancies 1.34 (95% CI 1.23-1.46). DS fetuses from multiple births were less likely to be prenatally diagnosed than singletons (adjOR 0.62 [95% CI 0.50-0.78]) and following diagnosis less likely to be TOPFA (adjOR 0.40 [95% CI 0.27-0.59]).

CONCLUSIONS: The risk of DS per fetus/baby is lower in multiple than singleton pregnancies. These estimates can be used for genetic counselling and prenatal screening.

STOPPFrail (Screening Tool of Older Persons Prescriptions in Frail Adults with Limited Life Expectancy): Consensus Validation

Background: To validate STOPPFrail, a list of explicit criteria for potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) in frailer older adults with limited life expectancy. A Delphi consensus survey of an expert panel (n = 17) comprising specialists in geriatric medicine, clinical pharmacology, palliative care, psychiatry of old age, clinical pharmacy and general practice.
Methods: STOPPFrail criteria was initially created by the authors based on clinical
experience and appraisal of the available literature. Criteria were organised according to physiological system. Each criterion was accompanied by an explanation. Panellists ranked their agreement with each criterion on a 5-point Likert scale and invited to provide written feedback. Criteria with a median Likert response of 4/5 (agree/strongly agree) and a 25th centile of ≥4 were included in the final criteria.
Results: Three Delphi rounds were required. All panellists completed all rounds. Thirty criteria were proposed for inclusion; 26 were accepted. No new criteria were added. The first two criteria suggest deprescribing medications with no indication or where compliance is poor. The remaining 24 criteria include lipid-lowering therapies, alpha-blockers for hypertension, anti-platelets, neuroleptics, proton pump inhibitors, H-2 receptor antagonists, anti-spasmodics, theophylline, leukotriene antagonists, calcium supplements, bone anti-resorptive therapy, selective oestrogen receptor modulators, non-steroidal antiinflammatories, corticosteroids, 5-alpha reductase inhibitors, alpha-1 selective blockers, muscarinic antagonists, oral diabetic agents, ACE-inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, systemic oestrogens, multivitamins, nutritional supplements and prophylactic antibiotics. Anticoagulants and anti-depressants were excluded. Despite incorporation of panellists’ suggestions, memantine and acetyl-cholinesterase inhibitors remained inconclusive.
Conclusion: STOPPFrail comprises 26 criteria, which have been judged by broad consensus, to be potentially inappropriate in frailer older patients with limited life expectancy. STOPPFrail may assist in deprescribing medications in these patients.

From Screening to Synthesis: Using NVivo to Enhance Transparency in Qualitative Evidence Synthesis

Aims and objectives The aim of this qualitative evidence synthesis was to explore the experiences and perceptions of health care staff caring for people with dementia in the acute setting. This paper focuses on the methodological process of conducting framework synthesis using NVivo for each stage of the review: screening, data extraction, synthesis and critical appraisal. Background Qualitative evidence synthesis brings together many research findings in a meaningful way that can be used to guide practice and policy development. For this purpose, synthesis must be conducted in a comprehensive and rigorous way. There has been previous discussion on how using NVivo can assist in enhancing and illustrate the rigorous processes involved. Design Qualitative Framework Synthesis. Methods Twelve documents, or research reports, based on nine studies, were included for synthesis. Conclusion The benefits of using NVivo are outlined in terms of facilitating teams of researchers to systematically and rigorously synthesise findings. NVivo functions were used to conduct a sensitivity analysis. Some valuable lessons were learned and these are presented to assist and guide researchers who wish to use similar methods in future.

Investigating routes toward atomic layer deposition of silicon carbide: Ab initio screening of potential silicon and carbon precursors

Silicon carbide (SiC) is a promising material for electronics due to its hardness, and ability to carry high currents and high operating temperature. SiC films are currently deposited using chemical vapor deposition (CVD) at high temperatures 1500–1600 °C. However, there is a need to deposit SiC-based films on the surface of high aspect ratio features at low temperatures. One of the most precise thin film deposition techniques on high-aspect-ratio surfaces that operates at low temperatures is atomic layer deposition (ALD). However, there are currently no known methods for ALD of SiC. Herein, the authors present a first-principles thermodynamic analysis so as to screen different precursor combinations for SiC thin films. The authors do this by calculating the Gibbs energy ΔGΔG of the reaction using density functional theory and including the effects of pressure and temperature. This theoretical model was validated for existing chemical reactions in CVD of SiC at 1000 °C. The precursors disilane (Si2H6), silane (SiH4), or monochlorosilane (SiH3Cl) with ethyne (C2H2), carbontetrachloride (CCl4), or trichloromethane (CHCl3) were predicted to be the most promising for ALD of SiC at 400 °C.

Improving drug discovery using hybrid softcomputing methods

Virtual screening (VS) methods can considerably aid clinical research, predicting how ligands interact with drug targets. Most VS methods suppose a unique binding site for the target, but it has been demonstrated that diverse ligands interact with unrelated parts of the target and many VS methods do not take into account this relevant fact. This problem is circumvented by a novel VS methodology named BINDSURF that scans the whole protein surface in order to find new hotspots, where ligands might potentially interact with, and which is implemented in last generation massively parallel GPU hardware, allowing fast processing of large ligand databases. BINDSURF can thus be used in drug discovery, drug design, drug repurposing and therefore helps considerably in clinical research. However, the accuracy of most VS methods and concretely BINDSURF is constrained by limitations in the scoring function that describes biomolecular interactions, and even nowadays these uncertainties are not completely understood. In order to improve accuracy of the scoring functions used in BINDSURF we propose a hybrid novel approach where neural networks (NNET) and support vector machines (SVM) methods are trained with databases of known active (drugs) and inactive compounds, being this information exploited afterwards to improve BINDSURF VS predictions.

Screening of esophageal varices by esophageal capsule endoscopy: results of a French multicenter prospective study

International audience

Transient hyperglycemia in patients with tuberculosis in Tanzania: implications for diabetes screening algorithms.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) increases tuberculosis risk while tuberculosis, as an infectious disease, leads to hyperglycemia. We compared hyperglycemia screening strategies in controls and patients with tuberculosis in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. METHODS: Consecutive adults with tuberculosis and sex- and age-matched volunteers were included in a case-control study between July 2012 and June 2014. All underwent DM screening tests (fasting capillary glucose [FCG] level, 2-hour CG [2-hCG] level, and glycated hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c] level) at enrollment, and cases were tested again after receipt of tuberculosis treatment. Association of tuberculosis and its outcome with hyperglycemia was assessed using logistic regression analysis adjusted for sex, age, body mass index, human immunodeficiency virus infection status, and socioeconomic status. Patients with tuberculosis and newly diagnosed DM were not treated for hyperglycemia. RESULTS: At enrollment, DM prevalence was significantly higher among patients with tuberculosis (n = 539; FCG level > 7 mmol/L, 4.5% of patients, 2-hCG level > 11 mmol/L, 6.8%; and HbA1c level > 6.5%, 9.3%), compared with controls (n = 496; 1.2%, 3.1%, and 2.2%, respectively). The association between hyperglycemia and tuberculosis disappeared after tuberculosis treatment (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for the FCG level: 9.6 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 3.7-24.7] at enrollment vs 2.4 [95% CI, .7-8.7] at follow-up; aOR for the 2-hCG level: 6.6 [95% CI, 4.0-11.1] vs 1.6 [95% CI, .8-2.9]; and aOR for the HbA1c level, 4.2 [95% CI, 2.9-6.0] vs 1.4 [95% CI, .9-2.0]). Hyperglycemia, based on the FCG level, at enrollment was associated with tuberculosis treatment failure or death (aOR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.2-9.3). CONCLUSIONS: Transient hyperglycemia is frequent during tuberculosis, and DM needs confirmation after tuberculosis treatment. Performance of DM screening at tuberculosis diagnosis gives the opportunity to detect patients at risk of adverse outcome.