Population structure of the migratory fish Prochilodus lineatus (Characiformes) from rio Grande basin (Brazil), an area fragmented by dams

1. Prochilodus lineatus (Prochilodontidae, Characiformes) is a migratory species of great economic importance both in fisheries and aquaculture that is found throughout the Jacui, Paraiba do Sul, Parana, Paraguay and Uruguay river basins in South America. Earlier population studies of P. lineatus in the rio Grande basin (Parana basin) indicated the existence of a single population; however, the range of this species has been fragmented by the construction of several dams. Such dams modified the environmental conditions and could have constrained the reproductive migration of P. lineatus, possibly leading to changes in the population genetic structure. 2. In order to evaluate how genetic diversity is allocated in the rio Grande basin, 141 specimens of P. lineatus from eight collection sites were analysed using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) with 15 restriction enzymes. 3. Forty-six haplotypes were detected, and 70% of them are restricted. The mean genetic variability indexes (h = 0.7721 and pi = 1.6%) were similar to those found in natural populations with a large effective size. Fst and Exact Test values indicated a lack of structuring among the samples, and the model of isolation by distance was tested and rejected. 4. The haplotype network indicated that this population of P. lineatus has been maintained as a single variable stock with some differences in the genetic composition (haplotypes) between samples. Indications of population expansion were detected, and this finding was supported by neutrality tests and mismatch distribution analyses. 5. The present study focused on regions between dams to serve as a parameter for further evaluations of genetic variability and the putative impact of dams and repopulation programmes in natural populations of P. lineatus. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Lot sizing and furnace scheduling in small foundries

A lot sizing and scheduling problem prevalent in small market-driven foundries is studied. There are two related decision levels: (I the furnace scheduling of metal alloy production, and (2) moulding machine planning which specifies the type and size of production lots. A mixed integer programming (MIP) formulation of the problem is proposed, but is impractical to solve in reasonable computing time for non-small instances. As a result, a faster relax-and-fix (RF) approach is developed that can also be used on a rolling horizon basis where only immediate-term schedules are implemented. As well as a MIP method to solve the basic RF approach, three variants of a local search method are also developed and tested using instances based on the literature. Finally, foundry-based tests with a real-order book resulted in a very substantial reduction of delivery delays and finished inventory, better use of capacity, and much faster schedule definition compared to the foundry`s own practice. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Minimization of stock weight during close-die forging of a spindle

In this paper, Finite Element method and full-scale experiments have been used to study a hot forging method for fabri-cation of a spindle using reduced initial stock size. The forging sequence is carried out in two stages. In the first stage, the hot rolled cylindrical billet is pre-formed and pierced in a closed die using a spherical nosed punch to within 20 mm of its base. This process of piercing or impact extrusion leads to high strains within the work piece but requires high press loads. In the second stage, the resulting cylinder is placed in a die with a flange chamber and upset forged to form a flange. The stock mass is optimized for complete die filling. Process parameters such as effective strain distribution, material flow and forging load in different stages of the process are analyzed. It is concluded from the simulations that minor modifications of piercing punch geometry to reduce contact between the punch and emerging vertical walls of the cylinder appreciably reduces the piercing load. In the flange chamber, a die surfaces angle of 52° instead of 45° is pro-posed to ensure effective material flow and exert sufficient tool pressure to achieve complete cavity filling. In order to achieve better compression, it is also proposed to shorten both the length of the inserted punch and the die “tongues” by a few mm.

Energy efficient and economic renovation of residential buildings with low-temperature heating and air heat recovery

With the building sector accounting for around 40% of the total energy consumption in the EU, energy efficiency in buildings is and continues to be an important issue. Great progress has been made in reducing the energy consumption in new buildings, but the large stock of existing buildings with poor energy performance is probably an even more crucial area of focus. This thesis deals with energy efficiency measures that can be suitable for renovation of existing houses, particularly low-temperature heating systems and ventilation systems with heat recovery. The energy performance, environmental impact and costs are evaluated for a range of system combinations, for small and large houses with various heating demands and for different climates in Europe. The results were derived through simulation with energy calculation tools. Low-temperature heating and air heat recovery were both found to be promising with regard to increasing energy efficiency in European houses. These solutions proved particularly effective in Northern Europe as low-temperature heating and air heat recovery have a greater impact in cold climates and on houses with high heating demands. The performance of heat pumps, both with outdoor air and exhaust air, was seen to improve with low-temperature heating. The choice between an exhaust air heat pump and a ventilation system with heat recovery is likely to depend on case specific conditions, but both choices are more cost-effective and have a lower environmental impact than systems without heat recovery. The advantage of the heat pump is that it can be used all year round, given that it produces DHW. Economic and environmental aspects of energy efficiency measures do not always harmonize. On the one hand, lower costs can sometimes mean larger environmental impact; on the other hand there can be divergence between different environmental aspects. This makes it difficult to define financial subsidies to promote energy efficiency measures.

Forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty using VAR models with short- and long-term economic restrictions: a Monte-Carlo study

Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models and Monte-Carlo simulation methods we investigate the potential gains for forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty of two commonly used restrictions arising from economic relationships. The Örst reduces parameter space by imposing long-term restrictions on the behavior of economic variables as discussed by the literature on cointegration, and the second reduces parameter space by imposing short-term restrictions as discussed by the literature on serial-correlation common features (SCCF). Our simulations cover three important issues on model building, estimation, and forecasting. First, we examine the performance of standard and modiÖed information criteria in choosing lag length for cointegrated VARs with SCCF restrictions. Second, we provide a comparison of forecasting accuracy of Ötted VARs when only cointegration restrictions are imposed and when cointegration and SCCF restrictions are jointly imposed. Third, we propose a new estimation algorithm where short- and long-term restrictions interact to estimate the cointegrating and the cofeature spaces respectively. We have three basic results. First, ignoring SCCF restrictions has a high cost in terms of model selection, because standard information criteria chooses too frequently inconsistent models, with too small a lag length. Criteria selecting lag and rank simultaneously have a superior performance in this case. Second, this translates into a superior forecasting performance of the restricted VECM over the VECM, with important improvements in forecasting accuracy ñreaching more than 100% in extreme cases. Third, the new algorithm proposed here fares very well in terms of parameter estimation, even when we consider the estimation of long-term parameters, opening up the discussion of joint estimation of short- and long-term parameters in VAR models.

Tests of conditional asset pricing models in the brazilian stock market

In this paper, we test a version of the conditional CAPM with respect to a local market portfolio, proxied by the Brazilian stock index during the period 1976-1992. We also test a conditional APT modeI by using the difference between the 3-day rate (Cdb) and the overnight rate as a second factor in addition to the market portfolio in order to capture the large inflation risk present during this period. The conditional CAPM and APT models are estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and tested on a set of size portfolios created from individual securities exchanged on the Brazilian markets. The inclusion of this second factor proves to be important for the appropriate pricing of the portfolios.

Do shocks permanently change output? : Local persistency in economic time series

While it is recognized that output fuctuations are highly persistent over certain range, less persistent results are also found around very long horizons (Conchrane, 1988), indicating the existence of local or temporary persistency. In this paper, we study time series with local persistency. A test for stationarity against locally persistent alternative is proposed. Asymptotic distributions of the test statistic are provided under both the null and the alternative hypothesis of local persistency. Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to study the power and size of the test. An empirical application reveals that many US real economic variables may exhibit local persistency.

Environmental protection and economic growth

This paper explores the link between environmental policy and economic growth by employing an extension of the AK Growth Model. We include a state equation for renewable natural resources. We assume that the change in environmental regulations induces costs and that economic agents also derive some utility from capital stock accumulation vis-`a-vis the environment. Using the Hopf bifurcation theorem, we show that cyclical environmental policy strategies are optimal, providing theoretical support for the Environmental Kuznets Curve.

Plano real e a bolsa de valores de São Paulo

A redução dos índices de inflação introduzida no Brasil pelo Plano Real trouxe alterações nos mais diferentes aspectos da vida econômica do país. Este trabalho visa analisar as principais alterações provocadas nos mercados de ações, analisando os impactos na Bovespa - Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo. Para tal foram analisadas as principais variáveis e medidas estatísticas que descrevem a Bovespa, como, por exemplo, a volatilidade e risco sistemático, nos períodos de quatro anos anteriores e posteriores ao início do Plano Real. De forma a separar os efeitos causados pelo Plano Real de outros de extensão global, utilizamos séries de controles baseadas em índices de bolsas da América Latina e de mercados centrais. Os resultados das análises realizadas indicam que houve uma redução da volatilidade no período pós-real em relação ao pré-real, o risco sistemático dos ativos brasileiros não se alterou, e o Ibovespa tornou-se menos eficiente em comparação com uma carteira formada pelos índices dos mercados centrais.

Essays in corporate risk management

This research investigates the factors that lead Latin American non-financial firms to manage risks using derivatives. The main focus is on currency risk management. With this purpose, this thesis is divided into an introduction and two main chapters, which have been written as stand-alone papers. The first paper describes the results of a survey on derivatives usage and risk management responded by the CFOs of 74 Brazilian non-financial firms listed at the São Paulo Stock Exchange (BOVESPA), and the main evidence found is: i) larger firms are more likely to use financial derivatives; ii) foreign exchange risk is the most managed with derivatives; iii) Brazilian managers are more concerned with legal and institutional aspects in using derivatives, such as the taxation and accounting treatment of these instruments, than with issues related to implementing and maintaining a risk management program using derivatives. The second paper studies the determinants of risk management with derivatives in four Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico). I investigate not only the decision of whether to use financial derivatives or not, but also the magnitude of risk management, measured by the notional value of outstanding derivatives contracts. This is the first study, to the best of my knowledge, to use derivatives holdings information in emerging markets. The use of a multi-country setting allows the analysis of institutional and economic factors, such as foreign currency indebtedness, the high volatility of exchange rates, the instability of political and institutional framework and the development of financial markets, which are issues of second-order importance in developed markets. The main contribution of the second paper is on the understanding of the relationship among currency derivatives usage, foreign debt and the sensitivity of operational earnings to currency fluctuations in Latin American countries. Unlikely previous findings for US firms, my evidence shows that derivatives held by Latin American firms are capable of producing cash flows comparable to financial expenses and investments, showing that derivatives are key instruments in their risk management strategies. It is also the first work to show strong and robust evidence that firms that benefit from local currency devaluation (e.g. exporters) have a natural currency hedge for foreign debt that allows them to bear higher levels of debt in foreign currency. This implies that firms under this revenue-cost structure require lower levels of hedging with derivatives. The findings also provide evidence that large firms are more likely to use derivatives, but the magnitude of derivatives holdings seems to be unrelated to the size of the firm, consistent with findings for US firms.

Implementação de sistemas de gestão integrados no setor de construção: estudo de casos brasileiros

As pressões de mercado, os programas de abertura financeira, a desregulamentação da atividade produtiva e a diminuição de barreiras protecionistas afetam significativamente a competitividade da indústria nacional. Outras mudanças, não apenas econômicas, mas sociais, políticas e tecnológicas, também pressionam as organizações a adotar novas estratégias empresariais e deixam claro que modelos de gestão tradicionais já não são mais suficientes para enfrentar estes novos desafios. Na busca de diferenciais competitivos, as empresas têm adotado sistemas de gestão da qualidade, de gestão ambiental e de gestão da saúde e segurança do trabalhador. Como forma de evidenciar a terceiros sua preocupação simultânea com estas três disciplinas, as empresas têm buscado a certificação integrada destes sistemas por meio das normas ISO 9001, ISO 14001 e OHSAS 18001. Surgem, assim, os Sistemas de Gestão Integrados (SGIs), objetos de pesquisa deste estudo. O recorte é setorial, sendo que o setor de construção foi escolhido devido a características como singularidade de seus produtos, alto impacto ambiental e alto índice de acidentes de trabalho. Com o objetivo de investigar como os SGIs foram implementados no setor de construção, foram escolhidos três casos de empresas sabidamente adotantes deste modelo de gestão. Foram analisadas as motivações, o processo de implementação e certificação do sistema, os fatores críticos de sucesso, as dificuldades encontradas e os benefícios colhidos com a adoção de SGIs. A pesquisa confirmou estudos anteriores que demonstram que a motivação, dependendo do contexto em que as empresas se inserem, pode ser por necessidade de maior competitividade, de legitimação, ou ainda, por responsabilidade ambiental de sua liderança. Os fatores críticos de sucesso são, dentre outros, comprometimento da alta administração, comunicação eficiente com as partes interessadas, disponibilidade de recursos e maturidade das equipes. As dificuldades encontradas foram a valorização excessiva de resultados econômico-financeiros, a complexidade do modelo adotado, a utilização burocrática do sistema, a falta de maturidade e preparo dos profissionais, o porte dos projetos, o perfil de competências dos profissionais e variados tipos de resistências. A adoção do SGI nas empresas estudadas esteve condicionada a situações do cenário econômico, do alto índice de terceirização verificado no setor e às dificuldades com a qualificação da mão-de-obra. Não obstante as dificuldades e os condicionantes, o SGI trouxe vários benefícios para as organizações e, um dado relevante, é que ele pode desencadear reações positivas ao longo da cadeia de valor, uma vez que as empresas adotantes de SGI passam a ser mais exigentes em relação a seus fornecedores.

Public investment in basic education and economic growth

The main objective of this paper was to visualize the relation between government spending on basic education and the human capital accumulation process, observing the impacts of this spending on individual investments in higher education, and on economic growth. It is used an overlapping-generations model where the government tax the adult generation and spent it in basic education of the next generations. It was demonstrated that the magnitude of the marginal effect of government spending in basic education on growth crucially depends on public budget constrains. The paper explains why some countries with a lot of public investment in basic education growth at low rates. In that sense if a country has only a lot of public investment in basic education without investment in higher education it may growth at low rates because the taxation can cause distortions in the agents incentives to invest in higher education.

Essays on regulation and risk

In this thesis, we investigate some aspects of the interplay between economic regulation and the risk of the regulated firm. In the first chapter, the main goal is to understand the implications a mainstream regulatory model (Laffont and Tirole, 1993) have on the systematic risk of the firm. We generalize the model in order to incorporate aggregate risk, and find that the optimal regulatory contract must be severely constrained in order to reproduce real-world systematic risk levels. We also consider the optimal profit-sharing mechanism, with an endogenous sharing rate, to explore the relationship between contract power and beta. We find results compatible with the available evidence that high-powered regimes impose more risk to the firm. In the second chapter, a joint work with Daniel Lima from the University of California, San Diego (UCSD), we start from the observation that regulated firms are subject to some regulatory practices that potentially affect the symmetry of the distribution of their future profits. If these practices are anticipated by investors in the stock market, the pattern of asymmetry in the empirical distribution of stock returns may differ among regulated and non-regulated companies. We review some recently proposed asymmetry measures that are robust to the empirical regularities of return data and use them to investigate whether there are meaningful differences in the distribution of asymmetry between these two groups of companies. In the third and last chapter, three different approaches to the capital asset pricing model of Kraus and Litzenberger (1976) are tested with recent Brazilian data and estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) as a unifying procedure. We find that ex-post stock returns generally exhibit statistically significant coskewness with the market portfolio, and hence are sensitive to squared market returns. However, while the theoretical ground for the preference for skewness is well established and fairly intuitive, we did not find supporting evidence that investors require a premium for supporting this risk factor in Brazil.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major differences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values -β=0.985, and ∅=5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% - the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business- cycle fluctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same figures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas(1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major diferences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values = 0:985, and = 5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business-cycle uctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same gures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.